GE '19: Constituency Predictions & Reports
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JimW
支那暗杀团
I think Stroud will fall to the Tories again, Labour vote got over the line on that surge last time. Just been letter in local paper about the Tory candidate not even living in the constiuency while Drew is a real local MP so that might help a bit. Too many farmers market wankers who'll vote Green anyway unfortunately.
maomao
普費斯
Romford
There's only Labour posters in my street but I live in the urban corner of one of Greater London's safest Tory seats and with the HoC's official thickest Tory Rosindell soaking up nearly 60% of the vote the indefatigable Angelina Leatherbarrow won't be giving up her day job anytime soon. Local tories are very well organised and the majority is probably already sat there in postal votes so even snow won't save us from the blue rinse brigade. I'm only really voting so I can have a good look at the inside of our local church without being bothered. Tory hold.
There's only Labour posters in my street but I live in the urban corner of one of Greater London's safest Tory seats and with the HoC's official thickest Tory Rosindell soaking up nearly 60% of the vote the indefatigable Angelina Leatherbarrow won't be giving up her day job anytime soon. Local tories are very well organised and the majority is probably already sat there in postal votes so even snow won't save us from the blue rinse brigade. I'm only really voting so I can have a good look at the inside of our local church without being bothered. Tory hold.
Bus Honeygun
This week the score draws are plentiful
Exeter - Labour hold.
Big personal vote for Ben Bradshaw, who despite his Blairite leanings is a diligent and hard-working MP. It's a win-win for him as any Corbynites locally will still vote Labour for the party. Add in the Lib Dems standing aside on account of Bradshaw's vocal Remainer stance and it should be easy.
Big personal vote for Ben Bradshaw, who despite his Blairite leanings is a diligent and hard-working MP. It's a win-win for him as any Corbynites locally will still vote Labour for the party. Add in the Lib Dems standing aside on account of Bradshaw's vocal Remainer stance and it should be easy.
flypanam
Sausage to fortune
Croydon North
Uber Blairite Steve Reed will hold this seat without breaking sweat. Saw his vote share rise to 72.2% in 2017. It will come down a little in this election. The contest will be for second place with the Tories having a Brexit Party candidate standing against them for the leave vote while the Yellow Tories will hope to push them into third. Unlikely though. Greens will hope to pick up some of the labour vote, while the Christians will swear Jesus saves, but their deposit is lost.
Uber Blairite Steve Reed will hold this seat without breaking sweat. Saw his vote share rise to 72.2% in 2017. It will come down a little in this election. The contest will be for second place with the Tories having a Brexit Party candidate standing against them for the leave vote while the Yellow Tories will hope to push them into third. Unlikely though. Greens will hope to pick up some of the labour vote, while the Christians will swear Jesus saves, but their deposit is lost.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Bristol west - lib scum have stood down here but are still sending leaflets out attacking labour on Brexit. Greens have this seat in their sights but will do well to take out a 36k labour majority, though suspect their vote will be up quite a bit (80% remain here, eu flags in windows, three green councillors). Tories have stood a nobody local councillor from Bridgwater and there’s even a Brexit twat with a deposit to piss away.
hippogriff
Imposter
Clacton
Tories will hold. Had the Brexit Party fielded a candidate it might have split the vote and made it a three-way fight, but they didn't.
Tories will hold. Had the Brexit Party fielded a candidate it might have split the vote and made it a three-way fight, but they didn't.
I had a Lib Dem leaflet
before their candidate was excommunicated or whatever... Nothing from anyone else so far.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Southwest Surrey, conservative hold. Decent increases for labour and Lib Dems but nowhere near enough to get near Jeremy Cunt.
Twickenham - Prediction: LD hold with a large increased majority.
This was a seat the tories held briefly between 2015 and 2017. Swung back to lib dem heavily to 2017. This is a very strong remain area and tories recently lost control of the local council (LB of Richmond) to lib dems. Tories know the writing is on the wall and are barely contesting the seat. They've stuck up a nobody who is not local and I have received one flier through the post and seen no blue rosettes on the streets. Its clear they have diverted their resources to more interesting neighboring constituencies (Richmond Park, Putney, Uxbridge etc), which brings me onto...
Richmond Park - Prediction: LD win from Con
Racist Zac is toast. Tiny majority before it all went hard brexit and Johnson.
Putney - Prediction: Labour gain from Con
It really feels that the desperation to protect Johnson in Uxbridge is dragging resources away from other marginals. In SW London there is a perfect storm of strong anti-brexit feeling, strong anti-Johnson feeling and also people pissed with Heathrow expansion as well.
This was a seat the tories held briefly between 2015 and 2017. Swung back to lib dem heavily to 2017. This is a very strong remain area and tories recently lost control of the local council (LB of Richmond) to lib dems. Tories know the writing is on the wall and are barely contesting the seat. They've stuck up a nobody who is not local and I have received one flier through the post and seen no blue rosettes on the streets. Its clear they have diverted their resources to more interesting neighboring constituencies (Richmond Park, Putney, Uxbridge etc), which brings me onto...
Richmond Park - Prediction: LD win from Con
Racist Zac is toast. Tiny majority before it all went hard brexit and Johnson.
Putney - Prediction: Labour gain from Con
It really feels that the desperation to protect Johnson in Uxbridge is dragging resources away from other marginals. In SW London there is a perfect storm of strong anti-brexit feeling, strong anti-Johnson feeling and also people pissed with Heathrow expansion as well.
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DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I don't see Hollobones's 10k majority going anywhere so Cons hold for kettering imo, similar lead and prospects for Wellingborough where all round bad egg and shit Peter Bone will get back in. Tom Pursglove is Cons incumbent for Corby, couple of thousand in it, hopefully it'll change hands again. Over in Northampton North its all to play for as veteran Sally Keeble just needs to nick 800 odd take it back from the cons. Northampton South isn't held on a massive margin either, 1160 in it.
Cloo
Approved by toads
Finchley & Golders Green: Tories hold with increased majority. Lib Dems second but have split opposing vote enough to increase Tory majority
Enfield Southgate: Tories regain; standing previous MP David Burrowes who was locally popular and bit of a surprise loss in 2017. Current incumbent Bambous Charalambous is likely felt not to have done as good a job for constituency as Burrowes.
Enfield Southgate: Tories regain; standing previous MP David Burrowes who was locally popular and bit of a surprise loss in 2017. Current incumbent Bambous Charalambous is likely felt not to have done as good a job for constituency as Burrowes.
Gramsci
Well-Known Member
The Londoner parachuted in is a Cllr and Mayor of my area -Lambeth in London.
I'd be interested to know how is doing.
He tried to get the Vauxhall seat. Kate Hoey has decided to retire from it. Not surprising as she had managed to piss off the left and right of the membership of the local Labour party due to her flag waving Unionist support of Brexit. She left before she was deselected. She really angered a lot of people and squandered the good will she had as a hard working MP.
In Vauxhall the membership had wanted a all women shortlist to replace a female MP. This was not allowed. Dogus put his hat in the ring.
He is Kurdish from a refugee background whose worked had and done alright.
He supported Yvette Cooper for leader. But know apparently is chummy with Corbyn. Comes across as a social climber who will change as leadership changes imo .
In the Vauxhall shortlisting he managed to annoy other New Labour Cllrs and the left. He is a wealthy businessman. Running Kebab and restaurants. Used his wealth to set up a purported local newspaper that promoted him. Without making clear he funded it. The local well established New Labour lot didn't like this recently arrived upstart for being so pushy to be MP also he gets on with Corbyn. Not a good point in Lambeth labour party leadership circles. ( there candidate Florence got the nomination) the left didn't like a wealthy businessman who didn't pay the living wage get the seat.
He is very good at networking. Has support from the top of Labour party and Unions ( despite not being a living wage employer) . He also has a "history" which I see has been coming up.
He is also a 100% Remainer. In my area inner London that is a plus point. Inner London being around 80% Remain. But I was surprised to see him parachuted into area that is Leave.
He is basically a Londoner. So I am surprised he got parachuted into a completely different area.
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King Biscuit Time
Well-Known Member
Sheffield Hallam
Labour squeaked this one in 2017 to unseat Clegg and give a job the now ridiculously unpopular Jared O'Mara. There seems to be much less Lib Dem signage up the city end of the constituency where I live, and the amount of Labour stuff up is much closer to 2017 levels than 2015 but fuck knows what's going on in the massive rural bit.
The students are still pissed off with the Lib Dems.
Also LD's first election without a high profile candidate for ages so that might be worth a few votes.
Result - fuck knows. Labour at 3.6 on betfair exchange seems like decent value.
Labour squeaked this one in 2017 to unseat Clegg and give a job the now ridiculously unpopular Jared O'Mara. There seems to be much less Lib Dem signage up the city end of the constituency where I live, and the amount of Labour stuff up is much closer to 2017 levels than 2015 but fuck knows what's going on in the massive rural bit.
The students are still pissed off with the Lib Dems.
Also LD's first election without a high profile candidate for ages so that might be worth a few votes.
Result - fuck knows. Labour at 3.6 on betfair exchange seems like decent value.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
I think we can have a pretty good guess at what is going on in the massive rural bit. And it aint good. It will be the one seat with Sheffield in its name that probably wont return a Labour MP. I'm pretty certain mine, Brightside & Hillsborough (5th safest Labour seat or something) will stay red.
Penistone & Stocksbridge looks close as hell though.
Gramsci
Well-Known Member
Had a chat with one off my longstanding Labour Cllrs in Lambeth, London a few days ago. (Lambeth is run by New Labour). Told the Cllr I would be voting Labour. Got the , for me usual , lack of enthusiasm for my support of Labour I expect from my local Cllrs. " I know you like Corbyn" and "if Labour doesn't win election Corbyn will have to be replaced".
I did tell the Cllr I didn't want New Labour back in charge of the party. Got a mumbled response to that of " that isn't how the conversation is now in the party" The longstanding New Labour lot do not like to be referred to as New Labour nowadays.
So I expect another push to get rid of Corbyn after election.
I think some Labour party Cllrs in my area would like to see Labour do poorly so they can get rid of Corbyn. But they aren't going to say this publicly.
I did tell the Cllr I didn't want New Labour back in charge of the party. Got a mumbled response to that of " that isn't how the conversation is now in the party" The longstanding New Labour lot do not like to be referred to as New Labour nowadays.
So I expect another push to get rid of Corbyn after election.
I think some Labour party Cllrs in my area would like to see Labour do poorly so they can get rid of Corbyn. But they aren't going to say this publicly.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
I thought Bury North was also considered a marginal?
bimble
floofy
SW hertfordshire (still cant believe i live here now).
David Gauke (standing as independent now after being the tory mp here for 14 yrs) will probably lose by a smallish margin (10%?) to the random cllr flown in to replace him. What I don't understand is why, whether its brexit or just habit of putting an x next to the picture of the blue tree.
David Gauke (standing as independent now after being the tory mp here for 14 yrs) will probably lose by a smallish margin (10%?) to the random cllr flown in to replace him. What I don't understand is why, whether its brexit or just habit of putting an x next to the picture of the blue tree.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Corbyn would have to go in the event of a defeat. Both Labour and Conservative normally dump defeated leaders, especially if they lose twice. There is also the blunt reality of his age and his relative toxicity with voters.
I’m not a member, I don’t even vote for Labour usually - preferring the spoilt SC ballot paper. But I think the chances of a New Labour revival in the post Corbyn era are close to zero. The membership, the union tops and after next Thursday the composition of the PLP mean that any candidate pledged to deviate from ‘Corbynism’ (a left social democratic programme) will simply be eviscerated
farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
fishfinger has kept that quiet.
Manchester Central - labour increased their majority from 20k in 2015 to 30k in 2017 so I expect they will comfortably hold that.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
If he’ll lose by only a smallish margin his majority must have been huge if he can risk splitting his vote in half and the second placed party still not stand a chance of winning!
I’m going to look that up...
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Yup.
Conservative David Gauke - 35,128
Labour Robert Wakely - 15,578
Still worth keeping an eye on if he really will get a sizeable personal vote. (Doubt it mind).
Labour - Ali Aklakul
Independent - David Gauke
Conservative - Gagan Mohindra
Conservative David Gauke - 35,128
Labour Robert Wakely - 15,578
Still worth keeping an eye on if he really will get a sizeable personal vote. (Doubt it mind).
Labour - Ali Aklakul
Independent - David Gauke
Conservative - Gagan Mohindra
Barking - Safe Labour seat. Margaret Hodge has a majority of over 21,000. I don't expect much change there.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Is she still standing for Labour? I thought she'd resigned or something
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