West Worcestershire - most of the locals here would vote for a blob of lard if it had a blue rosette, though there are some yellow tories about as well. So despite the fact that the Labour candidate is a genuinely decent human being, (as far as I can tell at least!) and the revelations that the Tory incumbent, Harriett Baldwin has claimed well over a million quid on expenses in an 8 year period (and also even tried to claim back a £50 donation to a local charity ball on expenses,) there's an air of inevitability about the whole thing here.
GE '19: Constituency Predictions & Reports
- Thread starter chilango
- Start date
Flavour
hang the bankers
Yes, the tories won it in 2010 and 2015, labour defending a 4000 majority from 2017. i think they'll keep it.
Arbeter Fraynd
Active Member
Hastings & Rye - it'll be tight again but Lab to win from the Tories. Way more visible and energetic Labour campaign than last time. Even though Amber Rudd was awful she was famous and no-one knows the new Tory, that will make a difference too. Even the middle class surburban/rural bits of the constituency like Fairlight have more Labour posters than Tory
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baldrick
hmmmmm
Birmingham Perry Barr - I don't think Khalid Mahmood (Lab) is going anywhere. I expect the local 'Yeshua Party' candidate will lose their deposit!
Derby South - I don't live there but someone I went to school with is standing as the Tory candidate against Margaret Beckett. We went to school in Leicester so his local credentials are a little suspect. Might be an interesting one - Beckett is Remain, her constituents voted Leave. She had a big majority in the last election.
Derby South - I don't live there but someone I went to school with is standing as the Tory candidate against Margaret Beckett. We went to school in Leicester so his local credentials are a little suspect. Might be an interesting one - Beckett is Remain, her constituents voted Leave. She had a big majority in the last election.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Aberdeen South a key Tory / SNP marginal. Incumbent Tory wank Ross Thomson was a voter-repellent embarrassment even by Tory standards, mired in drunkenness and groping allegations, and would have lost by thousands. His constituency chairman refused to sign his nomination papers so he’s out, replaced by councillor Douglas Lumsden.
It’s a toss-a-coin fight between him and SNP candidate Stephen Flynn. Flynn has run a busy door-knocking grassroots campaign.
Turnout will be key. I wonder if the sleekit shamefaced M&S cardigan-wearing Volvo drivers will turnout for Lumsden in the same way that they turned out for the then unknown Thomson, on the back of that balloon Ruth Davidson’s “no to indyref 2” campaign in 2017.
Only a few hundred votes in this. My heart hopes for a Flynn victory but my guts say Lumsden will hold on with a sub 1,000 majority. Hope I’m wrong.
It’s a toss-a-coin fight between him and SNP candidate Stephen Flynn. Flynn has run a busy door-knocking grassroots campaign.
Turnout will be key. I wonder if the sleekit shamefaced M&S cardigan-wearing Volvo drivers will turnout for Lumsden in the same way that they turned out for the then unknown Thomson, on the back of that balloon Ruth Davidson’s “no to indyref 2” campaign in 2017.
Only a few hundred votes in this. My heart hopes for a Flynn victory but my guts say Lumsden will hold on with a sub 1,000 majority. Hope I’m wrong.
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steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Angus taken with a small majority by Tory farmer’s daughter Kirstene Hair in 2017 from the SNP. She’s in the back pocket of the big agriculture lobby and has been a consummately useless MP. Her fledgling political profile never really recovered from her admission that she didn't vote in the EU referendum of 2016, as the question was too hard.
She’s up against Dave Doogan, a well known local councillor. Angus is largely farming country and four big-ish towns; Arbroath, Montrose, Brechin and Forfar. If Doogan wins in the towns and gets the vote out as he should he’ll win by 2,500.
She’s up against Dave Doogan, a well known local councillor. Angus is largely farming country and four big-ish towns; Arbroath, Montrose, Brechin and Forfar. If Doogan wins in the towns and gets the vote out as he should he’ll win by 2,500.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
There are some controversial video clips doing the rounds, she's defending posting an article on social media that advocated paying disabled people less than the minimum wage, and she defended it on the grounds that it's about their happiness to work and people with learning disabilities don't understand money.
Sally Ann Hart says disabled people should be paid less as 'they don't understand money' | Metro News
She's also got previous saying/sharing controversial stuff.
A Tory Candidate Posted That "Multiculturalism" Had Taken Its "Toll" On Europe In The Wake Of Terror Attacks
Linlithgow and East Falkirk. Went SNP in 2015 (previously Labour and before boundary changes part of the constituency held long term by Tam Dalyell).
Majority of less than 3000, down from 13000 in 2015. Staying with family in the constituency at the moment and they're pretty sure it'll stay SNP. (My BIL's been out campaigning for them.)
ETA The Tory candidate has just delivered a leaflet (they're in second place here). Only 'policy' stuff on it is the choice between 'Nicola Sturgeon's candidate and Indyref 2' or the Tory who will ' fight to stop Indyref 2' happening. Assume that's the general Tory message.
Majority of less than 3000, down from 13000 in 2015. Staying with family in the constituency at the moment and they're pretty sure it'll stay SNP. (My BIL's been out campaigning for them.)
ETA The Tory candidate has just delivered a leaflet (they're in second place here). Only 'policy' stuff on it is the choice between 'Nicola Sturgeon's candidate and Indyref 2' or the Tory who will ' fight to stop Indyref 2' happening. Assume that's the general Tory message.
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TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
Same with leaflet I got today in Ochil and South Perthshire.
I think that this will stay a Tory seat. I'm still a bit bewildered that Clackmannanshire has a Tory MP, but eh, the South Perthshire bit.
It doesn't help that the SNP have parachuted in John Nicolson as the candidate - another blow-in after Tasmina "Alex's girlfriend" Ahmed-Sheikh - and it really didn't help that he got the name of the constituency wrong at the first hustings in Alloa Town Hall. Local group Facebook shares can help a campaign, and sometimes they can't.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Wyre Forest - interesting constituancy, its been Labour, Tory and Independent within the last 20 years, its not a marginal but it is a swing. currently held (with a huge majority) by a waste of skin tory who was sacked from a junior minister post by Theresa May for being a sex pest. 60%(+?) leave.
queues outside two polling stations i drove past - in sleepy, and very properous, Bewdley no less - and Labour posters outnumbering tory ones by 10-1. i am now going to make an arse of myself by predicting a Labour victory in Wyre Forest.
(i'm going to further stick my neck out and say that i think Johnson will lose his seat in Uxbridge, and that the Tories will win only around 280 seats). you can take the piss out of my fortune telling skills tomorrow.
queues outside two polling stations i drove past - in sleepy, and very properous, Bewdley no less - and Labour posters outnumbering tory ones by 10-1. i am now going to make an arse of myself by predicting a Labour victory in Wyre Forest.
(i'm going to further stick my neck out and say that i think Johnson will lose his seat in Uxbridge, and that the Tories will win only around 280 seats). you can take the piss out of my fortune telling skills tomorrow.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Mid-Worcestershire - my constituancy - will stay tory. 20k majority, never been anything else with an annonymous, remainy MP. Johnson isn't popular with my tory, centerist, comfortable neighbours and friends, they will vote tory despite Johnson, not because of him. idle chat says lots of people not bothering or spoiling ballot papers. real disenchantment with the direction of the Tories and the unpleasantness of Johnson et al. don't get all hopeful though if you're looking for a Labour result - Corbyn has found a deep well of utter, visceral hatred.
Cid
Proper break this time
Sheffield central - easy hold for Paul Blomfield.
Sheffield Hallam - various outlets have been peddling the Lib Dem strategic vote, despite it being all but impossible for con to win there. Along with some Tory remainers going yellow to keep labour out. Prediction: Lib Dem gain.
Easy ones, but local constituencies.
Sheffield Hallam - various outlets have been peddling the Lib Dem strategic vote, despite it being all but impossible for con to win there. Along with some Tory remainers going yellow to keep labour out. Prediction: Lib Dem gain.
Easy ones, but local constituencies.
JimW
支那暗杀团
I've always said you were far-sighted and perspicacious to a practically uncanny extent.
gawkrodger
Well-Known Member
Wouldn;t be surprised if it turned back Labour - certainly various technocrats and LA people I deal with through work who cover the area are thinking this will be the case
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
or on Crack, one of the two!
gawkrodger
Well-Known Member
Wolves SE - Labour safe seat. Should remain so
Wolves SW - Marginal, currently Labour - will be close but has been a strong ground campaign and LP people seem quietly confident about holding
Wolves NE - Been Labour for 64 years out of 69, normally a safe seat and LP people now bricking it that they're going to lose it to the Tories.
Wolves SW - Marginal, currently Labour - will be close but has been a strong ground campaign and LP people seem quietly confident about holding
Wolves NE - Been Labour for 64 years out of 69, normally a safe seat and LP people now bricking it that they're going to lose it to the Tories.
Saints Alive
Well-Known Member
Could be an interesting one. I'm also in this constituency. Godsiff - probably the laziest MP ever - actually has a bit of a following after his support of those deeply unpleasant bigots outside Anderton Park School. I even had a leaflet from him shoved through my letterbox from him - he's branding himself the 'independent labour' candidate. He'll probably split the vote a bit but the Lib Dems and Tories are so far behind I don't think the new guy they parachuted in will have any problems.
Cambridge: Labour win, fairly comfortable majority. Before the election I would have predicted a very marginal hard to call Lab/ Lib Dem as we are a very remain constituency but Labour have been knocking on doors non stop, MP probably has a good personal vote as he's well thought of, hardly any Lib Dem posters to be seen. I'm honestly not sure what's happened.
Saints Alive
Well-Known Member
Birmingham Northfield
A couple of constituencies across from Hall Green. It is the most marginal of the Birmingham seats and, apparently, the local Labour crew are a bit worried. Some of my buddies from Hall Green have been drafted in to help keep the seat Labour. Of all the Brum seats, this is the most likely to change hands.
A couple of constituencies across from Hall Green. It is the most marginal of the Birmingham seats and, apparently, the local Labour crew are a bit worried. Some of my buddies from Hall Green have been drafted in to help keep the seat Labour. Of all the Brum seats, this is the most likely to change hands.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Sticking to this.
Reading West - I think the Labour Party may have been able to divert some resources from Reading East into here. They had Hugh Grant door knocking the other day, but despite this I'm going for a Labour gain here. The YouGov MRP has it very slightly leaning Tory so they'd only have to be fractionally out for it to change hands. If it does it's a good indication that Labour is having a good night.
Wokingham - For the tactical voters it's the LibDems trying to unseat John Redwood here. So Conservative hold.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
I’ve been told by a local LP member that Godsiff has been shamelessly targeting Mosques in
Balsall Heath and Sparkhill. It will be very interesting to see how many votes he pulls in. Everyone will be one from a reactionary. Given the labour majority I expect nothing less than a 30k plus majority however.
Good to have a fellow Hall Green resident on Urban. I’m in Kings Heath.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
What about Erdington?
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
No need for that, as soon as someone nudges you your siesta will be over, and your sweet dreams evaporate,
rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
Tiverton and Honiton
It'll be tory.
Same as every time since 1923
It'll be tory.
Same as every time since 1923
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
You Hall Greenites get everywhere, I was at a party in London with one of you two nights ago.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Labour were putting a call out for folks in Bristol to go and help out up at Stroud last week as the local resources aren’t that strong and Bristol has enough door knockers. Not sure how relevant this is.
Saints Alive
Well-Known Member
Yes, I heard that too. You'd be surprised (I was ) to discover Sparkhill and Springfield have much larger numbers of voters than Kings Heath and Moseley (where I live). Nevertheless, I think you're right that the new chap, Ali, will hold comfortably.
Saints Alive
Well-Known Member
I'm told that the wannabe-Sutton voters there will split the right wing vote by going for Brexit, making it likely to be a solid majority for Jack Dromey (Labour).
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