GE '19: Constituency Predictions & Reports

[chilango]

Reading East

A shock Labour gain in 2017 with a 10% swing. Holding this will be a good sign for Labour. The signs are cautiously good for Labour. They've been active on the ground with leaflets, stalls and posters. The only visible Party in most of seat.

The Greens have been keeping their heads down and it's likely they'll continue to lend Labour a couple of thousand votes.

The Lib Dems are invisible but will likely pick up a chunk of the Tory vote who want to stop Corbyn but want to morally have their hands clean regarding Brexit so they can blame others should it come to pass.

The Tories - who knows? There's plenty of people sat on half a million quid+ semis in 'burbs who will vote with their pockets.

Prediction? Labour hold.

 

[Supine]

Westmorland & Lonsdale. The pressure is on the Lib Dems to defend against the Tories. Labor don't stand a chance but we do have Mr Fishfinger as the comedy forth option.

 

[PursuedByBears]

Lancaster and Fleetwood
Cat Smith to be re-elected as Labour MP but with a reduced majority.

Morecambe and Lunesdale
David cunting Morris to be re-elected as Tory twat by the rich old Tory twats up the Lune valley.

 

[andysays]

As I mentioned on another thread, Labour got over 80% of the vote here in Tottenham last time.

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict they should hold it...

 

[brogdale]

Reading East

A shock Labour gain in 2017 with a 10% swing. Holding this will be a good sign for Labour. The signs are cautiously good for Labour. They've been active on the ground with leaflets, stalls and posters. The only visible Party in most of seat.

The Greens have been keeping their heads down and it's likely they'll continue to lend Labour a couple of thousand votes.

The Lib Dems are invisible but will likely pick up a chunk of the Tory vote who want to stop Corbyn but want to morally have their hands clean regarding Brexit so they can blame others should it come to pass.

The Tories - who knows? There's plenty of people sat on half a million quid+ semis in 'burbs who will vote with their pockets.

Great thread idea

 

[brogdale]

Carshalton & Wallington here! (Outer South London suburbia)

LD remainiac Tom Brake to retain seat with another close-run tussle with the tories.

The LDs will take back from the 9k 2017 Lab vote (possibly knocking them back to 5k?) to hold on despite a strong, well supported (by Scully's lot next door) campaign.

Staying part of the SW 'golden crescent' of outer London.

Prediction: LD hold

 

[Sue]

As I mentioned on another thread, Labour got over 80% of the vote here in Tottenham last time.

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict they should hold it...

Likewise, think Diane Abbott might just about hang onto her 35000 majority. (Despite there being pretty much no posters -- for anyone -- round here.)

ETA Hackney North and Stoke Newington.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Hammersmith (where I live) will definitely stay Labour. The Tories aren't really trying at all and I don't even know who the Lib Dem is.

Slightly more in doubt, but not much, are neighbouring Kensington and Chelsea & Fulham. These constituencies were ruthlessly gerrymandered in 2010 to segment out the povs and benefit the Tories, but Kensington is now Labour controlled - by a tiny majority in 2017 but I suspect this will increase. C&F has a fat Tory majority but it halved in 2017 so it is theoretically possible for it to swing... I doubt that it will though.

 

[redsquirrel]

Leeds Central, another one that Labour might just manage to hold on to (24,000 majority).

More interestingly I'll predict that Lab also hold onto Leeds North West despite the LDs best efforts to try and take it back.

 

[Pickman's model]

As I mentioned on another thread, Labour got over 80% of the vote here in Tottenham last time.

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict they should hold it...

But lammy is a liability

 

[andysays]

But lammy is a liability

Lammy is a dick, and I certainly won't be voting for him, but realistically he'll walk it again without my vote.

 

[danny la rouge]

Stirling

prediction: SNP gain from Con.

Con majority was 148 votes last time.

https://democraticdashboard.com/location/town/Stirling/-3.93690289999995,56.1165227


Perth and North Perthshire

prediction: possible Con gain from SNP.

Election 2017 dashboard

 

[planetgeli]

Carmarthenshire East & Dinefwr

Nominally a three way fight but in reality Plaid Cymru have owned this seat in the 21st century. Can’t see this changing. The Brexit Party have made a late entry into the nominations from the candidate in Pembrokeshire who isn’t allowed to stand there because of Farage’s ‘pact’ with the Tories. So he’ll nick 1000 (what UKIP, in the form of Neil Hamilton, got last time around) votes off the Tories here instead.

PC Hold.

 

[The39thStep]

Cheadlehighstreet -
Enya Fans for Marxism gain from Proletarian Democracy

 

[Riklet]

Bath. Lib Dem without a doubt. Labour might do bit better too. Would be amazed if the Tories won it back, bloke who did win before in 2015 (booted out in 2017) was a proper stupid useless cunt.

North East Somerset.

I reckon the Mogg might be out of a job but it will be very very close.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Nottingham East: guaranteed win for Labour's Nadia Whittome who I will probably vote for if only to help put the boot into the incumbent, the Soubryist worm Chris Leslie.

More interesting seats are to be found elsewhere in Notts with Broxtowe currently held by a margin of 800 and change by Anna Soubry who may take a non-trivial number of tory votes this time round as she's got a pretty high profile as local MP. Likely labour gain.

Ashfield is currently held by labour with a margin of only 400-odd, down from 9,000 in 2015 due to migration of almost the entire UKIP vote to the tories. Incumbent Gloria del Piero is standing down this time round so Labour have a new candidate. The tory candidate is the one who was caught out putting his mate up for a fake doorstepping. Will be a big target for Labour activists but the biggest factor will probably be whether or not the Brexit Party take a chunk out of the leave/tory vote. I'm predicting a tory gain here.

Labour will need to hold Gedling and Bassetlaw or they're completely fucked.

 

[MickiQ]

My MP is Heather Wheeler (South Derbyshire) with a 12000 majority, I expect her to still be (despite my efforts) on Friday morning. There are some constituencies I am going to stay up and look out for though.

Derby North, next door, one of my daughters and her boyfriend live here and I expect Chris Williamson to take enough Labour votes in this marginal seat to let the Tory candidate back in. So I predict Tory gain.Interestingly middle daughter says despite this being a key seat for all they haven't seen anyone campaigning.

Crewe and Nantwich held by Labour with 48 votes. I was born and raised there and most of my family and a lot of friends live there, we're a big family so there are probably enough Q's to actually effect the outcome. It was held by Labour for 30 yrs and then Tories for 10 up till 2017, If the Tories can't win back Crewe then they're fucked and I would like to think my family had a hand in it since my own vote is effectively wasted.
My brother tells me they have had canvassers from Labour, LibDem's and Greens but not the Tories, he says he's put his recycling wheelie by the front door so they can drop the leaflets in it and save him the trouble.

Cities of London and Westminster, our mutual bud Chuka, this is a man who clearly thinks people will vote for him just because they recognise his name, I think he's wrong and that the Tory will win, but I want to know for sure.

East Dunbartonshire, I think she will probably hold it since being a Party Leader seems to be worth extra votes but I think there is a real possibility that the SNP can kick out Death of Squirrels earning Ed Davies an unexpected promotion.

I would like to see Boris go as well but think that is very unlikely.

 

[Proper Tidy]

In related news:

Ex-MP Ian Austin urges voters in Labour marginal seats to vote for Boris Johnson

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

Streatham here. Lib Dem (haha) to labour.

Gutted to see chuka go

More interesting is my home constituency, east ren, in Glasgow. Currently held by the odious Tory Paul Masterton. Tory/snp marginal. MRP saying it’s too close to call.

Hoping to for a SNP gain from Con.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Think Tories will take back Crewe & Nantwich. Getting bullish they'll be seen off in most of their key welsh targets - cardiff north, clwyd south, wrexham, ynys mon - but might take vale of clwyd and gower

 

[Buddy Bradley]

North East Cambridgeshire. Conservative majority has grown every election - over 20k last time around. Don't think even Brexit is going to make a dent in that, unfortunately.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I live in Birmingham Hall Green. Labour Majority is 34,000 plus (78% of the vote) and they’ve ditched the execrable Roger Godsiff. So I’m sticking my neck out and predicting Labour will hang on.

You read it here first....

 

[Flavour]

Manchester central, withington, Gorton all lab holds. Important for labour is to gain Stockport (currently held by CUK twit defector Ann Coffey) and win Bolton west (tory majority of less than 1000 in 2017) all the other seats are fairly safe in greater Manchester

 

[krink]

Sunderland aka Brexitland has 3 Labour MPs with a history of big majorities but all are hardcore remainers so I suspect their share of the vote will go down but they'll keep their seats.

 

[mx wcfc]

Winchester and Chandlers Ford - CON HOLD Lib Dems take a big chunk out of the tory majority but Steve Brine clings on, by less than 4,000 votes.

This is a remain constituency, and the Lib Dems took control of the city council a few months ago. Lib Dems assume they will pick up the vast majority of remain tories, but unless they do go back to a second referendum position, they won't. Local tories are actually split over Brine - there have been letters in the local rag suggesting he should have been deselected (he was one of the 21). I just can't see hard line tories not voting tory though.
That said, this is actually a constituency, I think, where Johnson could cost the tories a lot of votes.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

More interesting is the seat where I grew up and where my dad still lives, West Bromwich East. Watson has gone. Labour are defending a 7,000 majority.

The constituency voted 70% for Brexit (note to remainers: despite being one of the most multi ethnic in Britain). I went for a few pints with my dad in his local yesterday. It’s a mixed crowd by age and race if not class. In between the football on the tele the general consensus was Labour would lose the seat due to Watson, Brexit, Corbyn and a parachuted Londoner being the candidate (in that order). Lots of lifelong Labour voters either aren’t voting or are not voting Labour.

Definitely one to watch next week. Labour might be saved by the fact that there are loads of candidates including Galloway, the BP and loads of others but it’s vote is going through the floor

 

[William of Walworth]

Getting bullish they'll be seen off in most of their key welsh targets - cardiff north, clwyd south, wrexham, ynys mon - but might take vale of clwyd and gower

I'll bet you at least a pint that Gower will remain Labour .... "sources close to the incumbent"** remain reasonably confident for now ...

**eg her ward agant in West Cross, Swansea end of the Gower constituency -- he's a personal pal/CAMRA drinker friend of mine. He and his team are working very hard, and I'll be joining them for a major leaflet drop next Monday (9th December)

 

[William of Walworth]

Kensington : Labour hold.

 

[cardboardspike]

Kensington : Labour hold.

i really hope so.

my predictions:
chipping barnet - lab gain from con
finchley and golders green - con hold

lewisham west and penge - sadly not a spunking cock gain from lab. lab hold

 

[William of Walworth]

Oxford West and Abingdon : Lib Dem hold
Oxford East : Labour hold.
Cambridge : Labour hold and big-style.