Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

[elbows]

I didnt put it quite like that, Im not convinced that renewables actually can be scaled up to such an extent, have to to everything possible on all fronts and probably have to do something to consumption as well. Need a new economic model to make that work.

Still, regardless of the issues with energy, rebuilding stuff in general may give the Japanese economy a boost. But I prefer not to start thinking in economic terms when the human cost is still unfolding.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Not good news im afraid...

2037: The US-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) has said it agrees with the assessment of France's Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) that the incident at Fukushima should be classified as level 6 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES), one below Chernobyl. Following a number of explosions and a fire at the plant which released dangerous levels of radiation, ISIS said the situation had "worsened considerably" and was now closer to a level 6 event. "It may unfortunately reach a level 7," it added.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Yeah. Unfortunately, we are going to need nuclear if we are to maintain anything like civilisation as we know it.

Conventional power generation produces radioactive particles too. Its much less concentrated, but when you factor in the volume, it adds up considerably.

 

[Shevek]

PM sent to you Elbows - sorry didn't want to derail the thread with economic/energy related stuff.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Hello Shev

 

[Shevek]

Hi Proper Tidy

 

[Sunray]

I really hope we're not witness to something speculated about but always put down as inconceivable by the nuclear industry.

Meltdown is so catastrophic, hundreds of people in Chernobyl gave their lives preventing it by installing a concrete shield under the reactor as it burnt.

Once the core melts it can get so hot, without any means of stopping it, that it can continue to burn the water table. This would make the whole area uninhabitable forever. Could be a huge area.

 

[mauvais]

That's basically China Syndrome and is widely discredited.

 

[Shevek]

Yes it was saying the newspaper today that you could end up with massive dead-zones that had to be policed at the cost of billions of dollars and contributing nothing to the economy.

 

[Pickman's model]

That's basically China Syndrome and is widely discredited.

no, china syndrome's the reactor melting through to the other side of the world.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Does anyone know how long water will have to be pumped for before it makes a difference to the safety? Is this an indefinite thing until another solution can be found?

I cant imagine the decision you make to stand so close to those reactors knowing you are receiving doses of radiation that could or will kill you at some point....

 

[stethoscope]

BBC reporting a fire at reactor 4

 

[laptop]

Does anyone know how long water will have to be pumped for before it makes a difference to the safety? Is this an indefinite thing until another solution can be found?

Depends on the exact composition of the nuclear fuel - loosely, the longer it's been in the reactor, the longer before it stops chucking out shedloads of heat.

Of the order of months. And there's nothing else to be done but to keep cooling it.

 

[laptop]

no, china syndrome's the reactor melting through to the other side of the world.

That was only ever nuclear-geek black humour. Reactor contents burning their way through the bottom of the containment will do nicely

 

[elbows]

For all intents and purposes I think we may as well think of the cooling as being required indefinitely. The reactor cores and all fuel pools that have contents will need to be cooled for ages. Some of the challenges may get easier with the passing of time, others may get harder. If they can gradually start to get power etc back on site then it mostly comes down to just what damage has been sustained to all of the cooling mechanisms for the different reactors and pools.

 

[elbows]

Of the order of months. And there's nothing else to be done but to keep cooling it.

Indeed. There were attempts to make reassuring noises about how much the heat etc levels drop once main reaction is stopped, but as the number 4 reactor had been off since the end of November yet its fuel rods still managed to cause issues today, such reassurances hardly had time to get started before events made them impotent.

 

[lopsidedbunny]

no, china syndrome's the reactor melting through to the other side of the world.

which won't work and it was base on a film which came out two weeks before long island problem...

 

[Barking_Mad]

For all intents and purposes I think we may as well think of the cooling as being required indefinitely. The reactor cores and all fuel pools that have contents will need to be cooled for ages. Some of the challenges may get easier with the passing of time, others may get harder. If they can gradually start to get power etc back on site then it mostly comes down to just what damage has been sustained to all of the cooling mechanisms for the different reactors and pools.

I just found a Q&A on Reuters with another 'expert' who when asked the same question commented...

Over the next several days the threat should decrease - it will either melt within that time or not - no one I speak to says this will last more than a week from now
by Scott Disavino at 3/15/2011 8:14:46 PM8:14 PM

Although experts have been wrong all the way along so far


edit: he is Reuters energy correspondent, so not so expert in the professional sense of the word.

 

[Pickman's model]

which won't work and it was base on a film which came out two weeks before long island problem...

i never said it would work, i merely said that mauvais was wrong

 

[lopsidedbunny]

2037: The US-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) has said it agrees with the assessment of France's Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) that the incident at Fukushima should be classified as level 6 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES), one below Chernobyl. Following a number of explosions and a fire at the plant which released dangerous levels of radiation, ISIS said the situation had "worsened considerably" and was now closer to a level 6 event. "It may unfortunately reach a level 7," it added.

2042: A level 6 incident is a "serious accident" which results in a "significant release of radioactive material likely to require implementation of planned countermeasures". The 1957 Kyshtym disaster was classified as level 6. An explosion at a Soviet military nuclear waste reprocessing plant in the Russian Urals led to large off-site release of radioactive material.

----

2152: AFP is reporting a new fire at the number four reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

 

[elbows]

Unit 4 is said to be on fire again.

This is serious, not sure if it is the reason that levels on site started to go up again at 11PM JST, only just tuning into this breaking news so I dont know what time they say the fire started again.

 

[mauvais]

The principle was that it melted through the containment floor and into the ground. I don't know whether Ralph Lapp really meant it would melt its way to China - maybe he did, but he was a physicist, so you'd hope not.

 

[lighterthief]

Meltdown is so catastrophic, hundreds of people in Chernobyl gave their lives preventing it by installing a concrete shield under the reactor as it burnt.

Really? Do you have a source for that?

 

[mauvais]

Probably veering off topic by the way, but something I only took full notice of today was that Chernobyl kept operating until 2000. I can't find much info on the sheer practicalities of that - how did they get people back to work in there afterwards?

 

[lopsidedbunny]

Probably veering off topic by the way, but something I only took full notice of today was that Chernobyl kept operating until 2000. I can't find much info on the sheer practicalities of that - how did they get people back to work in there afterwards?

People in the U.S.S.R. were expendable back then... There a big problem with Chernobyl now due to the casing that surround it is due to collapse due to age. I there/is plans to put another casing over the top. Japan is harder as it's right next to the sea...

 

[Giles]

Yes it was saying the newspaper today that you could end up with massive dead-zones that had to be policed at the cost of billions of dollars and contributing nothing to the economy.

I think that all the farmland near the coasts that has been soaked in salt water will be unusable to grow things in for quite a while even disregarding nuclear nightmares.

And, if areas are polluted with radiation and they put up signs saying "keep out or you will be irradiated and die horribly in a few months" why do you think that they will have to spend "billions of dollars" policing these exclusion zones? I can't see many trespassers stepping over the skull and crossbones "Keep Out" signs!

Giles..

 

[Dr Jon]

Conventional power generation produces radioactive particles too. Its much less concentrated, but when you factor in the volume, it adds up considerably.

Yeah, but I was thinking more of maintaining energy flows required for "civilisation".

 

[lopsidedbunny]

I think that all the farmland near the coasts that has been soaked in salt water will be unusable to grow things in for quite a while even disregarding nuclear nightmares.

And, if areas are polluted with radiation and they put up signs saying "keep out or you will be irradiated and die horribly in a few months" why do you think that they will have to spend "billions of dollars" policing these exclusion zones? I can't see many trespassers stepping over the skull and crossbones "Keep Out" signs!

Giles..

You can get through to Chernobyl there's no policing there only signs to say keep out in Russian. People tend to take reading devises with them to tell them they are in a save spot.

 

[lopsidedbunny]

2216: The BBC's Matt Frei in Tokyo says spent fuel rods in reactors five and six are also now believed to be heating up.

 

[Pickman's model]

yeh? by the time you get up tomorrow, it'll be 'as engineers fought to prevent a meltdown in the worst nuclear accident in history'

ok, i was only one day out.