There may be a non military resolution. Apparently because of the industriousness of the Taiwanese, many of the exporting manufacturing businesses of China are Taiwan owned, even Foxcon it was suggested to me might be Taiwanese or part Taiwan owned. There for the cheap labour. If this is true then strengthening economic ties might negate the need for a military solution at all.
Probably not, in fact Taiwan under the DPP is trying to reduce its economic ties with China. Tsai Yingwen's government is pursuing the New Southbound Policy which aims to build more ties with Australasia and South-East Asia in order to reduce their reliance on China.
The problem is China systematically weaponises economic ties to achieve their political goals. E.g. Hilton Hotels and other businesses were forced to remove Taiwan as an option for Nationality in their online booking systems, or lose the Chinese market. Taiwanese celebrities who make money in China have to keep silent on politics, or they are erased from the Chinese Internet. Some Taiwanese Bubble Tea cafe chain was pressured to make a statement in favour of Beijing over the Hong Kong protests etc.
The new era of likely long term DPP rule can be said to have started with the Sunflower Revolution in 2014. CCP United Front Work Groups had been very busy at targeting and grooming influential Taiwanese businessmen and politics and had effectively infiltrated the KMT this way, and there was an effort by the KMT to force through a free trade deal which would have allowed China to dominate Taiwan economically, for example it would have made it possible for them to buy up Taiwanese private media.
Protesters stormed Taiwanese Parliament and occupied it to prevent the Bill going through, and DPP came to power in this context.
The issue is not about a conflict of interests between Taipei and Beijing which can be solved by better economic ties. It is about democracy versus fascism.
It's a shame the western left doesn't show any solidarity to Taiwan. Contrary to many assumptions, the pro-independence movement is left leaning and socially liberal (one of the most celebrated figures of the Sunflower Revolution and the Cyber Minister under DPP government is trans for instance, and Taiwan is the most LGBT-friendly country in Asia - but KMT are generally against this), and the most pro-China forces are Conservative or even far-right.
I think many still associate Taiwan with the right wing KMT of the Cold War, however today, it is figures associated with the KMT military dictatorship who are most pro-Beijing.
Bear in mind that Taiwan was governed as a part of Japan for 50 years by the time KMT came to the island. It isn't as simple as it breaking off from China during the Civil War. The KMT "liberation" left a sour taste in people's mouths. The anti-Japanese movement in Taiwan had tried to keep their native Chinese traditions alive, but when the KMT came, they repressed these traditions even more violently than the Japanese did, considering them backwards - however Taiwan under Japanese rule was actually significantly more advanced than China, so it was perceived as crudely rustic and backwards militarists invading and telling them their customs were backwards.
There was an uprising against the KMT after only 2 years of their arrival, and they responded by massacring nearly 30,000 people in one day and beginning a long period of White Terror. The Taiwanese Independence Movement today traces its genesis to this anti-KMT uprising, and not to the KMT itself, as many people erroneously suppose; and the democracy movement in the late 80s and early 90s was also an important aspect of it.
Today the main base of support for unification comes from those families descended from the KMT evacuation of the mainland. This is why pro-Beijing elements are associated with Conservative and far-right militarist elements, not leftist elements as one might superficially suppose.
But as time goes by, their influence in society is becoming more and more diluted. Chinese identity amongst the younger generation is extremely rare in fact.
Beijing is aware that time is not on its side. This next decade is a really decisive moment for Taiwan. I mean, some Chinese officials have literally advocated exterminating the entire population as one possible solution. Not sure how representative that is, but you can be pretty sure that they won't be humane about it.
asiatimes.com
.
. China’s a one party state and if similar idiocy of the American century and the axis of evil
has got a grip in the corridors of power bad things could happen.
