Food prices, Ukrainian and Russian agricultural exports etc

[platinumsage]

Turkey and Egypt are dependent on Russia for 70% of their wheat

For Ukraine, Lebanon gets 90% of its wheat from there, then Libya, Tunisia, Pakistan, Bangladesh around 40%

“If farmers in Ukraine don’t start planting any time soon there will be huge crisis to food security. If Ukraine’s food production falls in the coming season the wheat price could double or triple”

Food crisis looms as Ukrainian wheat shipments grind to halt

The focus is on wheat now, but with knock-on price rises and Russia being a big exporter of fertiliser, the effects could be more widespread.

 

[bluescreen]

The Food Programme on R4 today focused on this:

Ukraine: War in the breadbasket of the world​

The Food Programme

Dan Saladino looks at the war in Ukraine through the lens of food. Are people already going hungry? And what does conflict mean for the millions dependent on Ukrainian wheat?
Fundraising for people impacted by the war is already underway; Cook for Ukraine #CookForUkraine, and, as featured in the programme there is the World Central Kitchen World Central Kitchen
This week's Radio Appeal came on behalf of the Disasters Emergency Committee Home

BBC Radio 4 - The Food Programme, Ukraine: War in the breadbasket of the world

Dan Saladino looks at the war in Ukraine through the lens of food and farming.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Rimbaud]

Turkey and Egypt are dependent on Russia for 70% of their wheat

For Ukraine, Lebanon gets 90% of its wheat from there, then Libya, Tunisia, Pakistan, Bangladesh around 40%

“If farmers in Ukraine don’t start planting any time soon there will be huge crisis to food security. If Ukraine’s food production falls in the coming season the wheat price could double or triple”

Food crisis looms as Ukrainian wheat shipments grind to halt

The focus is on wheat now, but with knock-on price rises and Russia being big exporter of fertiliser, the effects could be more widespread.

Column: Ukraine's rising role in grain exports complicates impact of crisis

Ukraine has significantly climbed the ranks in grain exports over the last decade, this year aiming for No. 3 in wheat and No. 4 in corn, though the latest conflict with Russia has instilled fear in markets over whether Ukraine’s export efforts can succeed.

www.reuters.com

There has been a lot of talk about wheat, but that is only one of many agricultural staples which Ukraine supplies a lot of. Ukraine is the source of 50% of sunflower oil exports, 19% rapeseed oil, 18% barley, 16% corn and 12% wheat.

Ukraine is increasingly important for oilseeds as it accounts for half of the world’s sunflower oil exports and is the No. 3 rapeseed exporter. Many global oilseeds, particularly vegetable oils, have hit record-high prices within the last year.

This year, Ukraine is predicted to account for 12% of global wheat exports, 16% for corn, 18% for barley and 19% for rapeseed.

 

[bluescreen]

TBF, wheat isn't the main staple for some countries who import the bulk of theirs from Ukraine. But it's still going to put a lot of pressure on food prices. Rice prices soared. And when food prices soar, even more shit happens.

 

[platinumsage]

Yes, wheat is easily substitutable after all. It'll be general rises across the board I guess.

 

[Dogsauce]

Rises in fuel costs may be more significant, food production and transport use an awful amount of the stuff. It’ll get added on to the price.

 

[platinumsage]

Rises in fuel costs may be more significant, food production and transport use an awful amount of the stuff. It’ll get added on to the price.

Indeed. The price of oil up from $115 to $130 last night

 

[platinumsage]

For comparison with last time:

 

[elbows]

Another article, with emphasis on fertiliser.

Ukraine war 'catastrophic for global food'

One of the world's biggest fertiliser firms says the conflict could deliver a shock to food supplies.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[RedRedRose]

I recommend reading Raj Patel. His forecast on this is not particularly sunny though.


Main points

• There was already food insecurity because of COVID, climate change and uneven capitalist development
• Food prices could soar by upwards of 22%
• UKR and Russia account for half of the worlds sun flower oil and 28-30% of wheat production
• Supplanting or increasing yields might be restricted because of access to fertiliser; Russia is the worlds largest exporter of fertiliser
• A 2007-8 food price spike fed into the Arab Spring and we're now at that level
• Huge implications for Egypt and Yemen (wheat prices doubled in Yemen)

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Yep. iirc, there were 'bread riots' / 'food riots' in Egypt and Bangladesh in around 2008 (give or take a year), because the price of wheat had gone up so much and people couldn't afford bread.

And even though it's Asian and African countries that are seemingly the main export markets for Ukrainian wheat, if there's a shortage the price will go up on global commodities markets. And things will get ugly, there will be civil unrest in other places in due course.