kyser_soze said:
Why invade Afghanistan? It's not resource rich, it's prooving to be as long-term a commitment for the US & NATO as Iraq, and doesn't have the oil factor going for it (yes I know there's a pipeline, which could have beenb routed through far more stable and friendly Caucasian states, it didn't have to go via Afghanistan).
EddyBlack said:
Which other direction could it have gone though? I'm not an oil expert, but just looking at a map called, 'The Oil and Gas Fields of Central Asia' from the book 'the New Great Game', the oil in south eastern Turkmenistan, which is the one unocal was interested in, could go a number of ways.
1. Through Afganistan and pakistan to the Indian Ocean
2. Through Iran to the Persian Gulf
3. Through Russia and then Georgia to the Black Sea.
4. Across the Caspian sea, to Baku. Which would be rather more expensive in transportatiom terms.
Anyway, I'm rushing this, but these are my initial thoughts on that one. I'll dig out a map later so it makes more sense.
To illustrate my point, here is map of the area:
Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas. However, being landlocked, transporting this gas to market is a problem.
This
report, American centred, looks at the options. I believe it is from the late 90s.
To summarise:
1. Iran is, the most logical choice, but obviously political factors come into play.
2. The Afghanistan Pakistan route:
‘When examining a map, the next most attractive option geopolitically leads to the southeast through Afghanistan and Pakistan. The proposal involves building both oil and natural gas pipelines through western Afghanistan to connect with the pipeline networks in Pakistan which would bring the products to Pakistan and Pakistani ports on the Indian Ocean for further export by tanker. Yet a major problem exists. In actuality, Afghanistan as a state really no longer exists. A multi-ethnic religious war rages throughout much of the northern tier of the country among three main foes.
….The current fighting involves three groups each representing, in their own special way, each of the aforementioned ethnicities. The Pashtuni Taleban, an Islamist movement born in the Afghanistani refugee camps in Pakistan, now controls the southern two-thirds of the country’ etc.
3. Then we look at the option of transporting across the Caspian and the via Baku (capitol of Azerb.)
‘Then there are three possible routes via the Caucasus Mountains if undersea pipelines were built across the Caspian Sea to Baku, Azerbaijan. One crosses through Azerbaijan to Russian and terminates at the Black Sea for sea transport via the Bosphorous. The second traverses Azerbaijan and Georgia, including the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, with a similar termination on the Black Sea. The third goes through Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey and terminates on the Mediterranean at the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Yet all these routes involve difficult and seemingly unsolvable ethnic conflicts.
…One of the main goals of the Russian attack on Chechnya in December of 1994 was to ensure control of the oil pipeline which runs from Baku, via Grozny, the Chechen capital, to the Russian city of Tikhoretsk.
Another conflict affecting potential oil routes is occurring in the Caucasus republic of Georgia. Russia wants to prevent oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan from going the "Western" route through Georgia to Turkey. Moscow's support of civil strife in Georgia is directly connected to its goal of perpetuating conflict in the Caucasus.’
Notes on Unocal
‘The difficulties experienced by Bridas and Larmag apparently have persuaded most western companies to hold back from entering the Turkmen energy scene. One significant exception to this rule is U.S.-based Unocal, which is becoming increasingly active in Turkmenistan's gas sector.
Unocal, meanwhile, is also heavily involved in Turkmenistan's gas sector. In March 1996, a consortium of Unocal and Saudi Arabia's Delta signed an agreement with Russia's Gazprom to help develop gas reserves in the country, and also to build a nearly 900-mile long, $3 billion pipeline from Turkmenistan's giant Dauletabad field through Afghanistan, to the Pakistani gas field of Sui in Baluchistan province, and on to the port city of Karachi…’