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England v Germany - Tuesday 29/06 - 17:00

Predictions?

  • Total voters
    49
  • Poll closed .
JTG said:
He's a wild card and those frustrating moments come with the package. You don't get one without the other so he is what he is
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Yeah, completely. He tries things, and most of them aren't going to come off. But he adds loads to the team even when he isn't scoring. I get keeping the faith with Kane, but his currency really is goals. With Stirling, it's not quite so simple.
 
Fantastic result. I thought especially Sterling and Pickford (and when he came on, Grealish) were outstanding.

I remember the disappointment of 1996 so well and can't believe it was 25 years ago (that probably belongs on the 'Things That Make You Feel Really, Really Old' thread).

Apart from a yoga lesson & a shower, I've done nothing else all day but watch sport. :oops:
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Yeah, completely. He tries things, and most of them aren't going to come off. But he adds loads to the team even when he isn't scoring. I get keeping the faith with Kane, but his currency really is goals. With Stirling, it's not quite so simple.
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Kane's a little unusual for a striker in that he's not really a confidence player. He's dull as fuck and knows that his methods work and will just keep doing it until he starts firing again. He's been written off as a one season wonder for how many years in a row now? Always starts the season slowly and then the goals just keep coming. That's why you don't drop him, especially once he's off the mark.
 
JTG said:
No, I'd say Spain/Belgium are still favourites despite that. Obviously one goes before the final and both have trickier looking quarter finals than England. Even if England get through, Denmark/Czechs are a prospect in the order of Croatia in 2018 - good sides on a roll who can cause real problems at their peak.

There are no mugs at this stage though and England certainly do have a more than decent chance

All that said, I'm a little suspicious of teams that shed all their sparkle in the earlier games. It's hard to maintain over a tournament which is why peaking at just the right moments is so important. Slow and steady often wins the race
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I don't understand modern gambling, but I presume in the past betting companies would work out that, say, Belgium have an X% chance of beating Italy and then a Y% chance of beating Spain or Switzerland and then some nominal Z% chance of beating whoever they get in the final, with some overall figure. By that kind if process, as of now, England would probably have a better chance of winning it.
 
Wilf said:
I don't understand modern gambling, but I presume in the past betting companies would work out that, say, Belgium have an X% chance of beating Italy and then a Y% chance of beating Spain or Switzerland and then some nominal Z% chance of beating whoever they get in the final, with some overall figure. By that kind if process, as of now, England would probably have a better chance of winning it.
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Where they're not just laying off bets against each other, yeah.

But this tournament has been defying a lot of logic. Which is great for the bookies. They hate it when favourites win.

Dunno if it's still the case, but traditionally you always get terrible odds on England because so many England fans bet on England to win.
 
ska invita said:
"this is the best day of my life" was a bit depressing though. i hope not
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It’s a game of football, was great in the moment last night, a decent glow this morning but we have all been through the wringer the past year so nice that something positive has happened, but will have moved on by the time I get a bike ride in later today.

Mind you, my brother in law is still elated about Bradford’s win over Chelsea and that was now over five years ago, so it takes all sorts I guess...
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
It’s a game of football, was great in the moment last night, a decent glow this morning but we have all been through the wringer the past year so nice that something positive has happened, but will have moved on by the time I get a bike ride in later today.
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That’s how I feel now but I felt differently when I was 16!
 
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Wilf said:
I don't understand modern gambling, but I presume in the past betting companies would work out that, say, Belgium have an X% chance of beating Italy and then a Y% chance of beating Spain or Switzerland and then some nominal Z% chance of beating whoever they get in the final, with some overall figure. By that kind if process, as of now, England would probably have a better chance of winning it.
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Yeah I think you can make a good case for that tbh. I think maybe people are reluctant to say England are favourites because that's often heard as 'probably going to win' but at this stage they might have a 1 in 5 chance, say. That might still make them favourites though.
 
I just read that earlier, having started their trial this morning.

Couldn't decide what to make of Honigstein's characterisation of Muller; delightfully barmy or just barmy? :D

Even Thomas Muller missing a gilt-edged chance for the equaliser isn’t just a coincidence. In 579 games playing for Bayern, how many times has the 31-year-old run towards the opposition goal from 40 metres out on a break? Once, twice? It’s a situation that simply doesn’t arise in Munich. He’s a man for small spaces, cute angles, little runs; a jazz player who goes on wondrous journeys, hitting the right notes as long as the backing band provides structure and rhythm. Without that foundation, Muller’s improvisational skills peter out in a vacuum. Suddenly thrust into an unfamiliar Erling Haaland-type footrace all by himself, he lost his bearings.
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Badgers said:
Honigstein's is one of my favourite podcast pundits :D
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Yeah, think he's generally regarded as one of the best out there at the moment.

Wasn't going to bring it up because in broad strokes I think most of us already know this, but seeing as he's come up: watched this clip of an interview with him this morning, where he explains the different rivalries between England and Germany.




While I knew that between those two teams it's felt far more strongly by us than from their side, but it is still interesting to hear how he articulates the reasons for the main rivalries Germany do have (Italy and Netherlands), and how maybe England is starting to mean more to German fans, but maybe still not necessarily out of animosity, exactly.

Did also make me reflect on quite how many footballing wounds Germany have inflicted on us. I've always been quite uncomfortable with a lot of the rhetoric around Germany games, because of all the jingoistic, WWII bollocks, but even in my lifetime they've knocked us out of at least three tournaments, twice on penalties in SFs (in our own back-yard, no less!) and once when they thoroughly outplayed us but we did genuinely have a legitimate equaliser incorrectly not given (extra personal sting on that one because I watched it with a German I had a thing for, plus her husband :facepalm: :oops: :D ).

I think I didn't want to get into all the "WE BEAT GERMANY!!" hoopla because of the aforementioned bollocks and because I do find it a little embarrassing we care so much more than them, but fuck it, that is why it matters. They're the more successful team, by far, and they've inflicted much heartache over the years, so it is actually quite cathartic.

As ever, it's just a shame twats enjoy it too.

Hmm, ok, at some point that stopped being about Honigstein... :hmm: :oops:
 
Not sure I'd accept Wembley as being football's spiritual home. If football does have a spiritual home (and being the world's game I don't think it does) then it must surely be the Maracana?

I suppose you could make an argument for Wembley being it's ancestral home.
 
Lord Camomile said:
I just read that earlier, having started their trial this morning.

Couldn't decide what to make of Honigstein's characterisation of Muller; delightfully barmy or just barmy? :D
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It's tough getting psychoanalysed cos you missed a chance. It's not done to penalty missers, but it's a lot harder to score clean through on the keeper than to score a penalty.

Roughly 75% of all penalties are scored. I saw a while ago that one-on-one with the keeper like Muller is around 50% or a bit under. So it's twice as hard as taking a penalty.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
It's tough getting psychoanalysed cos you missed a chance. It's not done to penalty missers, but it's a lot harder to score clean through on the keeper than to score a penalty.

Roughly 75% of all penalties are scored. I saw a while ago that one-on-one with the keeper like Muller is around 50% or a bit under. So it's twice as hard as taking a penalty.
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Yeah and its not like he smashed it into row z or something. It was a bloody close run thing and England absolutely got away with one.
 
Teaboy said:
Yeah and its not like he smashed it into row z or something. It was a bloody close run thing and England absolutely got away with one.
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Yep. The keeper does well - stays big and closes the angles so maybe if he'd got it right inside the post, he'd have scored from there, but only if it was pinpoint accurate. He was off but not by miles. Alternative was to take it on further, which of course would have presented its own difficulties.
 
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