butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Labour just won 2015
England local election results thread
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ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
The under-performed polling predictions by ~17% in terms of seats (not checked popular vote, it could be wildly different).
Labour is either losing ground relative to expectations because of the geographical distribution of the vote (solid-ish, or mass desertion to 4th parties, but not much in between, which would mean more seats lost than votes) or because it is not turning out enough of its base to counter the flight to 4th parties.
And 2/3 of those low-hanging LD seats are Tory marginals, so they can't deploy their anti-coalition vote very effectively. They have to pick it up in the Midlands and East and smash London to counter likely Tory gains due to LD irrelevancy, and probably more than you'd think LD holds given that swing is never actually uniform.
Labour is either losing ground relative to expectations because of the geographical distribution of the vote (solid-ish, or mass desertion to 4th parties, but not much in between, which would mean more seats lost than votes) or because it is not turning out enough of its base to counter the flight to 4th parties.
And 2/3 of those low-hanging LD seats are Tory marginals, so they can't deploy their anti-coalition vote very effectively. They have to pick it up in the Midlands and East and smash London to counter likely Tory gains due to LD irrelevancy, and probably more than you'd think LD holds given that swing is never actually uniform.
ymu said:
But those predictions are a crap basis for analysis. If the predictions had been less optimistic would the labour result now be better?
As I understand it the predictions were based on April polling. Its May now and things have moved since then. We knew that before Thursday so this analysis misses the actual tangible implications of the election, by steering all analysis to comparisons with April predictions.
What the polls do seem to say is that the ukip vote is real, as are the returning labour voters. And as butchers says this means labour should have 2015 in the bag.
Yes, it was very obvious, that odious Dan Hodges was wheeled out with another Blairite on BBC news, talk about balance.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Yeah. They were wrong so now they're useless.
Butchers knows his stuff:
I misremembered the Tory prediction. They lost 25 more than expected, which is encouraging. Labour gained 59 fewer still. LD's 6 better. UKIP 99 better. Not seen actual national share yet but I'd bet that it is very close to bang on and that this is an efficient-vote distribution phenomenon.
Attacking Miliband from the right must leave them crammed up against the wall quite hard. Only the media could see things that way. It reminds me of the stories on the Beeb when Blair was leader and there was talk of the non-existent challenge from Brown, where they talked of Blairites and Brownites, thus missing the point that Brown was a Blairite in his policies. So is Miliband you bozos. Where is that cigarette paper when you need it?
The difference between a green and silver rizla never mattered so much...
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Wow. Wiki has it in the right-hand sidebar here.
25% Tory, 29% Labour, 14% LD, 23% UKIP, [leaves 9% other]
On popular vote, LD's lost 2% vs national polls. Tories 4%, Labour 9%, and UKIP gained 12%.
That means +3% to other 4th parties also.
So, vote/seats drop on national polls + uniform swing-ish predictions:
Tories: -4%/ -11%
Labour: -9%/-17%
LDs: -2%/+5%
UKIP: +12%/+249%
UKIP has demographic clustering on it's side for the locals for sure. They're getting more seats than vote share (similar to Labour but with bells on).
The question is, are they clustered enough to storm Westminster? Well. knock politely on the door. Need a map overlaying wards with consituencies and pinpoint UKIP wins and average vote.
The momentum could carry them over. 4th parties do well when it is widely perceived that they can win.
There must be furious dirt-digging at Tory and Labour HQs right now. The LDs must be loving it. They're getting the social liberal anti-right vote in their stronger-holds.
25% Tory, 29% Labour, 14% LD, 23% UKIP, [leaves 9% other]
On popular vote, LD's lost 2% vs national polls. Tories 4%, Labour 9%, and UKIP gained 12%.
That means +3% to other 4th parties also.
So, vote/seats drop on national polls + uniform swing-ish predictions:
Tories: -4%/ -11%
Labour: -9%/-17%
LDs: -2%/+5%
UKIP: +12%/+249%
UKIP has demographic clustering on it's side for the locals for sure. They're getting more seats than vote share (similar to Labour but with bells on).
The question is, are they clustered enough to storm Westminster? Well. knock politely on the door. Need a map overlaying wards with consituencies and pinpoint UKIP wins and average vote.
The momentum could carry them over. 4th parties do well when it is widely perceived that they can win.
There must be furious dirt-digging at Tory and Labour HQs right now. The LDs must be loving it. They're getting the social liberal anti-right vote in their stronger-holds.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Compared to the same-ish seats in 2009, pre-coalition, height of anti-Brown-ism and Tory landslide-ism, popular vote/seats:
Tories: -8%/-22%
Labour: -10%/+35%
LDs: -1%/-26%
UKIP: +23%/+94%
Others: -4%/N/A
There's some hefty ghetto effects going on. Labour not doing well on the popular vote but impressive when accounting for a low base and saved by geography. The rich ghettoise themselves and there's plenty of rural and small-townshire to go around too.
Tories: -8%/-22%
Labour: -10%/+35%
LDs: -1%/-26%
UKIP: +23%/+94%
Others: -4%/N/A
There's some hefty ghetto effects going on. Labour not doing well on the popular vote but impressive when accounting for a low base and saved by geography. The rich ghettoise themselves and there's plenty of rural and small-townshire to go around too.
ska invita
back on the other side
Oh right yeah of course
its been a long week
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
The Telegraph has a bit of a map. Tories lost 10 councils but Labour only gained 2. We're heading into FPTP causing coalitions territory. The other effect of divide-and-rule.
Looking for something at ward level.
Looking for something at ward level.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Better map here. Showing overall control only, but some results if you click on a constituency.
http://www.local.gov.uk/election-results
http://www.local.gov.uk/election-results
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Ah, BBC has it. Of course. Chief cheer-leader for the right.
Main troops clustered in the East with a small South and West coast pincer movement going on. Non-far North through the Midlands and the mid-South appear broadly similar so far. LD and (more) Labour strongholds are hanging in due to moderate but geographically concentrated Tory losses, but UKIP seem to be taking half their vote off Labour.
These are very right-skewed councils though. A full four year cycle from here would show a lot more and possibly a lot different. And there's a General Election three-quarters the way through. By 2015 it should be clear whether this is an "I agree with Nick" moment or comparable to the birth of another fledgling party 115 years ago.
TUSC for the new new Labour party on the same trajectory? Or will Miliband shift far enough over to meet them that old old Labour is enough within the electoral possibilities?
Or will there be a revolution today? That would be
.
Main troops clustered in the East with a small South and West coast pincer movement going on. Non-far North through the Midlands and the mid-South appear broadly similar so far. LD and (more) Labour strongholds are hanging in due to moderate but geographically concentrated Tory losses, but UKIP seem to be taking half their vote off Labour.
These are very right-skewed councils though. A full four year cycle from here would show a lot more and possibly a lot different. And there's a General Election three-quarters the way through. By 2015 it should be clear whether this is an "I agree with Nick" moment or comparable to the birth of another fledgling party 115 years ago.
TUSC for the new new Labour party on the same trajectory? Or will Miliband shift far enough over to meet them that old old Labour is enough within the electoral possibilities?
Or will there be a revolution today? That would be
.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
This is that BBC map modified to show who they're stealing seats from. Not enough support to topple Labour, barring West Sussex (hippies, scratch one), but the Tories are under threat and where the LD's are the major losers, that is where a fair few of the losses are going (lots of Labour gains from Tories and LDs in there too, of course, UKIP is still tiny compared).
Ward level would be lovely, but this is enough!
Ward level would be lovely, but this is enough!
The 'save your services' guy is a lovely, well meaning council employee who sadly came across as a little naive in his literature.
The Independents are the former mayor Peter Davies ex English Dems (the fourth party he has been a member of!). and the rest centre right.
I honestly think that the electorate in the Borough did not realise that Peter Davies had left the Eng Dems and voted for them and not the person.
His (Davies) defeat speech was typical of the man.
Not available as yet on a link but it was a bit churlish and dismissive of the electorate IMHO.
His (Davies) defeat speech was typical of the man.
Not available as yet on a link but it was a bit churlish and dismissive of the electorate IMHO.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Desperate
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
I dunno. UKIP are taking a lot of the former BNP vote but socialist-type candidates are doing OK comparatively and seem to be beating up a few right-wing nutters on the way. They do look to be on the up, which is good news in terms of pressure on more mainstream left triangulations, if it can grow. This is a very right wing set of council seats with the Tories holding around 60% of them to start. Fair few clustered indies too.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I for one , despite my differences with the revo left , would be delighted socialist type candidates were doing well. But the fact is they are not and Delroys post is just simply self deluded optimistic straw grabbing.
kabbes
First intersubjective, then internalised
Results for Surrey
CON No Change
71.604938271605%
11.111111111111%
11.111111111111%
3.7037037037037%
1.2345679012346%
1.2345679012346%
CON No Change
Party
Seats
+/-
Conservative
71.604938271605%
58
1
Liberal Democrat
11.111111111111%
9
-4
Residents Association
11.111111111111%
9
-1
United Kingdom Independence Party
3.7037037037037%
3
3
Green Party
1.2345679012346%
1
1
Labour
1.2345679012346%
1
0
Amidst all this shire county analysis, the other thing shown up yesterday was the continuing death of the Liberal Democrats in council estate and inner city Bristol. See the Bristol thread for numbers etc but they have effectively curled up and expired in parts of the city that they dominated for the last ten years - barely into three figures in wards they won previously. They thought they could hold on in many of those places and instead they're being kicked to pieces as each tranche of seats comes up annually in the city. It's drawn out but they'll be gone in a year or two
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
It also reflects the divide between the traditional Anglo-Saxons and the Danelaw. Viking rule conferred a legacy of xenophobia and bitterness.
I wouldn't read too much into that map, as it is as much a result of where elections took place, who stood, local issues candidates and campaigns, history of the party in an area, how widely vote was split, how many seats were up etc.
A similar map using popular vote in 2014 euros will tell us more.
A similar map using popular vote in 2014 euros will tell us more.
ymu said:
Even if he predictions were right they would not tell us much. What matters is comparison to 2009, as you go on to do,not to April 2013 projections.
Its like saying if Bayern lose the european cup final that they have had a bad season because they were favorites to win it in April.
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