England local election results thread

[brogdale]

the arable farms propped up by EU subsidies. never understand that one.

Its not the farm owners voting UKIP, is it? Think about it, they profit from the immigrant labour. Its the towns where the exploited A8 workers live that's proving fertile territory for the 'kippers.

 

[ymu]

Can somebody please set the record straight?

I have paid little attention to stats but I have it that:
Labour is winning back the Lib Dem votes who no longer like the Lib Dems
& UKIP is winning some non-voters and some Tories - strong correlation by class as to which kind of vote.

Making UKIP not dissimilar from European populism like Swiss People's Party, Ataka, Freedom Party of Austria, Five Star, Swedish Democrats, Holland's Party for Freedom and others.
and Labour not dissimilar from big social democratic parties in the core of Western Europe that can bounce back even after defeats (Socialist Party in France, Dutch Labour Party, SPD in Germany).

Dunno. Wiki has 2009 popular vote for Labour as 39%. One council missing in 2013 compared. No idea where butchers is getting his information and no idea which source is right.

E2A: mine is ambiguous, might mean 2012 locals, which would be dim but possible. Just sec.

 

[brogdale]

Dunno. Wiki has 2009 popular vote for Labour as 39%. One council missing in 2013 compared. No idea where butchers is getting his information and no idea which source is right.

This might be helpful?

The BBC’s Projected National Share of the vote was CON 25%, LAB 29%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 23%. The results for both the Conservatives and Labour are strikingly low… but this is more an artefact of the high level of UKIP support. I’ve said it in almost every post I’ve made this week, but note again what the Projected National Share of the vote is and isn’t.
It is a projection of what the BBC think the shares of local vote would be if there were elections across the whole country and if all four parties stood in every council division. In other words, it takes account and corrects for the fact that only rather Toryish parts of the county voted, and that UKIP and the Lib Dems only stood in three-quarters of the divisions. Secondly, it isn’t the votes that were actually cast – if you totted up the votes cast in every ward on Thursday you’d come up with a different, but probably less meaningful, number. Thirdly, it’s not an attempt to measure or predict national support for a general election – general elections have much higher turnout and, more importantly, people can and do vote differently in them.

 

[butchersapron]

Local elections 2009 (pdf). House of Commons research publication:

At the elections, the estimated national equivalent share of vote was Conservatives 35%, Labour 22%, and Liberal Democrats 25%. Estimated turnout was 35%.

 

[sihhi]

Dunno. Wiki has 2009 popular vote for Labour as 39%. One council missing in 2013 compared. No idea where butchers is getting his information and no idea which source is right.

E2A: mine is ambiguous, might mean 2012 locals, which would be dim but possible. Just sec.

Local elections 2009 has 22% for Labour according to the House of Commons.

39% for 2012 local elections, but these were very urban wards in large cities so it's not accurate to compare.

 

[ymu]

Dunno. Wiki has 2009 popular vote for Labour as 39%. One council missing in 2013 compared. No idea where butchers is getting his information and no idea which source is right.

E2A: mine is ambiguous, might mean 2012 locals, which would be dim but possible. Just sec.

Yep. This (on the Threshers & Railings predictions) says butchers is right:

Conservative 29% (-6%), 1,221 seats (-310)
Labour: 38% (+16%), 528 seats(+350)
Lib Dems: 16% (-9%), 354 seats (-130)
http://www.libdemvoice.org/local-elections-09-the-ldv-verdict-15295.html

Labour actual performance up 7% from 22% (compared to +16% expected).

Corrected version of the vote/seats post:

Compared to the same-ish seats in 2009, pre-coalition, height of anti-Brown-ism and Tory landslide-ism, popular vote/seats:

Tories: -10%/-22%
Labour: +7%/+35%
LDs: -11%/-26%
UKIP: +23%/+94%

There's some hefty ghetto effects going on. Labour not doing well [compared to mid-term expectations] on the popular vote but impressive [on seats] when accounting for a low base and saved by geography. The rich ghettoise themselves and there's plenty of rural and small-townshire to go around too.

 

[JTG]

HOWEVER: I believe Durham and Northumberland actually last voted in 2008 so even the 2009 figure isn't directly comparable to this year's.

 

[ymu]

HOWEVER: I believe Durham and Northumberland actually last voted in 2008 so even the 2009 figure isn't directly comparable to this year's.

There's been a bit of a shift, one less council overall up for election this time. Not sure if it's due to boundary changes or shifting election schedules.

 

[JTG]

I know Anglesey was due last year but got held over to allow for a boundary review. Some other councils may have moved to a full council election every four years rather than a rolling programme. Bristol is due to make the change in 2016

 

[joevsimp]

the three unitaries that they chopped Bedfordshire into voted in 2009 and 2011 for some reason

 

[toggle]

fucking hell, there's some really angry nasty stuff out there tonight about brewer.

Cornwall is not to blame, we didn't all support him

that includes a fuckload of disabled people and families with disabled kids that are apparently included in this tirade of abuse against cornwall and everything cornish

padstow isn't exactly very cornish anyway. no one on a local salary can afford the prices. they don't want rick fucking stein for a neighbour either.

and there were 5 candidates standing against him, the next eprson i see blaming the blonde woman solely for his victory is getting slapped with a rotten fish.

he's a cunt

the cunts that voted for him are cunts

if it was up to me i'd save the council some money and have the cunt put down.

but can we stop blaming a whole fucking nation/country/region for one fucking cunt and a handful of fucking morons please.

rinse and fucking repeat.



bit pissed off at this.

 

[brogdale]

fucking hell, there's some really angry nasty stuff out there tonight about brewer.

Cornwall is not to blame, we didn't all support him

that includes a fuckload of disabled people and families with disabled kids that are apparently included in this tirade of abuse against cornwall and everything cornish

padstow isn't exactly very cornish anyway. no one on a local salary can afford the prices. they don't want rick fucking stein for a neighbour either.

and there were 5 candidates standing against him, the next eprson i see blaming the blonde woman solely for his victory is getting slapped with a rotten fish.

he's a cunt

the cunts that voted for him are cunts

if it was up to me i'd save the council some money and have the cunt put down.

but can we stop blaming a whole fucking nation/country/region for one fucking cunt and a handful of fucking morons please.

rinse and fucking repeat.



bit pissed off at this.

Looks like a case for the Red Army Faction of the mind. In the absense of the real thing, just let the imaginary gang loose on that bloke.

 

[toggle]

I've just called out one of the cornish nationalists for linking to the misogynist crap and got an apology. and him spreading my 'warning' what the bloke writing that stuff is like, he campaigns against domestic violence prevention campaigns.

but there's some pissed off people here tonight.

 

[Quartz]

I see surprisingly little discussion on the thread of the fact that hardly anyone actually bothered to vote in this election.

Because that's reserved for pompous oafs.

 

[toggle]

Sarah Maguire ‏@WadebridgeEast 13h
If I'd taken 4 more of the Independent vote we'd not be in this situation. That's 2 doorsteps. And I couldn't, I'm so, so sorry Wadebridge.

Sarah Maguire ‏@WadebridgeEast 22h
Before judging us please know that 6245 voters are registered in #Wadebridge (East & West) 335 (5.4%) voted for Collin. 94.6% of us did not.

 

[JimW]

Because that's reserved for pompous oafs.

But you weren't looking to discuss reasons why people are disenchanted, just wanted to wag your finger at them for abrogating their precious democratic duty.

 

[coley]

I've just called out one of the cornish nationalists for linking to the misogynist crap and got an apology. and him spreading my 'warning' what the bloke writing that stuff is like, he campaigns against domestic violence prevention campaigns.

but there's some pissed off people here tonight.

Who the hell did vote for him? Given what he said,there must be some very twattish people in that bit of Cornwall.
E2a
Not confined to Tory bastards.
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/labour-mp-ian-lavery-appalled-3182146

 

[Prince Rhyus]

For those of you interested in Cambridgeshire, where the Tories lost to no-overall-control (due to UKIP taking 12 safe-as-houses Tory seats), have a look at:

Local Paper - leader of council losing his seat too
Phil Rogers - ward by ward in Cambridge City

 

[toggle]

Who the hell did vote for him? Given what he said,there must be some very twattish people in that bit of Cornwall.

not many people.don't know all the details tbh, this is 40 miles and one out of 120 constituencies. to my shame right now, i was more interested in watching where some of the people I know and trust personally were standing.

there can be a big streak of 'you can't tell us what to do' down here, and considering some of the crap that some of the locals get off second home owners and tourists, I don't blame them for it all. if brewer managed to tap into that, then it could explain. there's also an issue of inertia. it can be harder to move someone out than take an empty seat and brewer had well over 800 votes the last time he stood. he has held that seat a long time. a bit of pc gawn mad, gawds knows.

there are some suggestions he got most of his support out of some of the more isolated areas in the district, but i'm not wanting to play into any kind of yokel stereotype. but as you can see from this, it's as fair to blame the tories or labour for his victory as it was for some tit with a nasty reputation that i'm spreading far and wide, to blame sarah. could even blame the libs, they didn't stand last time.

but there's an academic conference coming up in a few weeks, discussing local politics with some of the people who know this century better than I do. might have an answer then.

Collin William Brewer Independent 335 25% Elected

Steve Knightley Liberal Democrat 331 25% Not elected

Roderick Harrison UK Independence Party 208 16% Not elected

Adrian Darrell Jones Labour 161 12% Not elected

Brian Aubone Bennetts Conservative 150 11% Not elected
Sarah Hannah Maguire Independent 146 11%
Not elected

 

[coley]

not many people.don't know all the details tbh, this is 40 miles and one out of 120 constituencies. to my shame right now, i was more interested in watching where some of the people I know and trust personally were standing.

there can be a big streak of 'you can't tell us what to do' down here, and considering some of the crap that some of the locals get off second home owners and tourists, I don't blame them for it all. if brewer managed to tap into that, then it could explain. there's also an issue of inertia. it can be harder to move someone out than take an empty seat and brewer had well over 800 votes the last time he stood. he has held that seat a long time. a bit of pc gawn mad, gawds knows.

there are some suggestions he got most of his support out of some of the more isolated areas in the district, but i'm not wanting to play into any kind of yokel stereotype. but as you can see from this, it's as fair to blame the tories or labour for his victory as it was for some tit with a nasty reputation that i'm spreading far and wide, to blame sarah. could even blame the libs, they didn't stand last time.

but there's an academic conference coming up in a few weeks, discussing local politics with some of the people who know this century better than I do. might have an answer then.

Collin William Brewer Independent 335 25% Elected

Steve Knightley Liberal Democrat 331 25% Not elected

Roderick Harrison UK Independence Party 208 16% Not elected

Adrian Darrell Jones Labour 161 12% Not elected

Brian Aubone Bennetts Conservative 150 11% Not elected
Sarah Hannah Maguire Independent 146 11%
Not elected

That's still 335 people who are seriously dodgy, not getting at Cornwall,could have happened anywhere, it's worrying that people can be so callous/disinterested regarding the disabled that they would vote bloke with Nazi tendencies in.

 

[toggle]

That's still 335 people who are seriously dodgy, not getting at Cornwall,could have happened anywhere, it's worrying that people can be so callous/disinterested regarding the disabled that they would vote bloke with Nazi tendencies in.

i know, but i'd suspect he managed to play off a lot of other factors. and i'd suspect i don't understand all of them. but the vast majority of cornish are not natural bigots. and i'd doubt there's many at all of his supporters that voted for him because he is shitty to disabled people. i'd suspect i'll find out eventually what line he took to play this. idk atm.

 

[coley]

i know, but i'd suspect he managed to play off a lot of other factors. and i'd suspect i don't understand all of them. but the vast majority of cornish are not natural bigots. and i'd doubt there's many at all of his supporters that voted for him because he is shitty to disabled people. i'd suspect i'll find out eventually what line he took to play this. idk atm.

I doubt most of the population are natural bigots, it's just disturbing that given his views that 335 people voted for him? What disturbs me is that there is a significant minority who hold these views and can express them in the anonymity of the ballot booth.

 

[The39thStep]

You're a fool, I never said that it was a building block, and I certainly haven't got my hopes up (LOL). shall we go through it a word at a time?



Why lie? Can't you argue and debate honestly? Is it beyond you? Or are you just a dishonest person in general?

It's the sort of result that they should be considering standard if the strategy they espouse was going to get anywhere. Respectable. Decent. Par. That's just my observation. If they could repeat the doncaster performance across the board, which imo they're actually capable of given the resources and organisation they have, then TUSC might go somewhere. But they can't, and they won't, and I'll be the first to say so. Now an interesting discussion might be why they can't, and why they won't, but that's not a discussion you're likely to contribute anything worthwhile to, is it?

My season's finished so I'll reply right away. Any chance you could reply with something more substantial that one word dismisalls and outright lies aimed at me personally? Or is that the level you operate on?

You just need to come clean Delroy.

I think : "Is it really a good show to have less than half the votes of the English Democrat candidate?"

You think : 3.1% of the vote is " a respectable result, it's the sort of vote that they ought to aiming for consistently as a building block, standard, respectable, decent, par result if "the strategy they espouse was going to get anywhere" ? That if TUSC repeat 3.1% "across the board, which imo they're actually capable of given the resources and organisation they have, then TUSC might go somewhere."

Having set the benchmark at 3% for the sort of vote that you think they should aim to consistently build across the board (standard apparantly) that would enable TUSC to potentially go somewhere you then offer the opinion that "they can't and they won't" even do that?

and I am a fool?

We need to sit down with you and get back to basics Delroy, this sort of contribution just doesn't pass muster.

 

[where to]

Did the candidate get 3% because she was a TUSC candidate or in spite of being a TUSC candidate?

 

[Earendel]

I am glad that Collin Brewer was re-elected. I cannot and do not condone his original comment (as reported), but I think the reaction was irrational and hysterical. The comments on the subject in this thread and elsewhere are symptomatic of a new phenomenon in which people feel the need to react emotionally to issues and assume they have a licence to denigrate and abuse others at will without any thought or consideration in the belief that they are morally right. One comment made by a local councillor was blown out of all proportion and then exploited cynically by a rather obnoxious and self-satisfied young lady whose tactics, I am glad to see, have soundly back-fired. No-one here or elsewhere has considered whether it is cruel or unfair to subject Cllr. Brewer to such disproportionate and hysterical comment and scrutiny in local and national media, and in social media, for what was an off-hand remark. It seems to me that Cllr. Brewer has, rightly, been judged on his record and has been re-elected fairly in accordance with the rules. This should be accepted, and in my view he should now be left-alone and allowed to serve those who elected him.

 

[butchersapron]

I always wondered what sort of weirdo actually seriously writes letters to local papers.

 

[Earendel]

I've noticed that insults and bullying of other posters are your stock in trade. It's not an argument, though, is it.

 

[butchersapron]

Can you do your next one in green?

Do you really consider your original post offered 'an argument' Ms Brewer/Tobes.

 

[Red Storm]

 

[Earendel]

I have no association whatever with Mr. Brewer, nor do I support him politically. As I implied in my first post, most people who comment on this issue, here and elsewhere, are satisfying a need to feel morally superior by over-blowing a trivial incident. They are also exploiting the plight and challenges of disabled people cynically for their own personal and political ends, including self-promotion. There has been no debate about the appropriateness of the response to his remark, and indeed whether there should have been any public response at all. Instead, in effect, you and others are engaging in abuse. Your comments here in response to my post underscore this point. You are an abusive poster. It is not good enough just to denigrate and insult others because they hold a different opinion. Remember, I have not said I agree with his original remarks and I do not support him politically. That is not the point.