England local election results thread

[J Ed]

The UK attempt at a 'Tea Party' movement comes in the form of the Taxpayer's Alliance - and although they haven't managed to reach out directly to the 'man on the streets' (the 'March for Cuts' was laughable) they do have the ear of the media across the country, willingly and uncritically regurgitating their press releases every day, able to set out their agenda unchallenged.

I dunno, the Tax Payer's Alliance doesn't use dog whistle racism etc

 

[elbows]

Another Tory council leader lost his seat, Isle of Wight to an independent candidate by 10 votes.

 

[brogdale]

Austin Mitchell @AVMitchell2010
Lib Dems are the first protest party in history to generate protest against themselves

 

[butchersapron]

I dunno, the Tax Payer's Alliance doesn't use dog whistle racism etc

They do. They hide it under a 'neutral' cost/benefit analysis though. Their job is to provide the arguments for the political movements rather than being the movements though.

 

[brogdale]

Another Tory council leader lost his seat, Isle of Wight to an independent candidate by 10 votes.

Close !

 

[brogdale]

Labour Press Team ✔ @labourpress
Labour GAIN Witney Central from Conservatives #OneNation #Labour

 

[frogwoman]

my local council now has 6 ukip councillors and one labour councillor, 2 of the lib-dems lost seats and 6 of the tories lost theirs.

 

[Streathamite]

get a lot of Arsenal supporters from there as well

yeah yeah yeah zzzzz.
Actually, far more spurs than labour, especially south herts, unless it's changed radically in recent years.

 

[treelover]

The UK attempt at a 'Tea Party' movement comes in the form of the Taxpayer's Alliance - and although they haven't managed to reach out directly to the 'man on the streets' (the 'March for Cuts' was laughable) they do have the ear of the media across the country, willingly and uncritically regurgitating their press releases every day, able to set out their agenda unchallenged.

who funds the TPA? I am aware US style thinks tanks like the Heritage Foundation see the U.K as fertile ground for their ideological manouvering..

 

[brogdale]

Who said they're racists?

 

[butchersapron]

Lot of vulnerable people going to pay for this UKIP vote.

 

[brogdale]

i always like seeing previously unknown psephologists emerge at this sort of event

Well here's something from some known psephologists...

1.31pm BST
Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher are number-crunching for Sky. I don't think they have published a national equivalent vote figure yet (see 11.31am), but they have must an internal one because they have put out figures showing how many seats the parties would win at Westminster if yesterday's voting was replicated at a general election.

Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY
Sky News House of Commons projection-

HUNG PARLIAMENT Lab 325 Con 247 L/D 52 Oth 26

 

[JTG]

Devon
Conservative hold
C 38 (-3); LD 9 (-4); Lab 7 (+1); UKIP 4 (+4); Ind 3 (+1); Green 1 (+1)

 

[Lo Siento.]

Well here's something from some known psephologists...

52 Lib Dems. LOL.

 

[butchersapron]

Well here's something from some known psephologists...

Which, given we know these are weak seats for labour, and the tories best bets, must have the latter shitting it proper. Chuck in the urban areas and we're talking big big labour majority.

 

[brogdale]

Which, given we know these are weak seats for labour, and the tories best bets, must have the latter shitting it proper. Chuck in the urban areas and we're talking big big labour majority.

I've no idea of their methodology, though. The fact they're calling the LDs at 52 seats (losing only their 5 most marginal?) leads me to believe there's some heavy manipulation/extrapolation etc. factored into their conclusions on this battering of the LDs.

 

[Lo Siento.]

the Lib Dems have 10 seats to defend with sub 2% majorities, the idea that they'll lose 5 seats is fucking laughable, given that they're currently polling 10+ per cent below their 2010 showing

 

[butchersapron]

I've no idea of their methodology, though. The fact they're calling the LDs at 52 seats (losing only their 5 most marginal?) leads me to believe there's some heavy manipulation/extrapolation etc. factored into their conclusions on this battering of the LDs.

It seems to just be basic extrapolation from vote share in these areas. Areas which, as you noted earlier, are heavily tory and rural. I doubt they'd be happy with that but as sky demands and they want to get paid...

 

[Dogsauce]

Well here's something from some known psephologists...

That looks like 'scaling up' of the results of just the areas voting yesterday, which doesn't represent how the nation as a whole would vote. I bet somewhere there's a 'seat calculator' where you can just plug in the percentage results and get that sort of result. Someone will do the maths properly later. Boulton's a clown.

A labour/lib dem coalition would be pretty revolting though, wouldn't it? Milliband & Clegg on rostrums in the Downing St garden. Christ. Though chances are that Clegg will give us a 'portillo moment' in 2015 and not be part of that picture, relegated to Andrew Neil's sofa and begging for a eurocrat job.

 

[butchersapron]

the Lib Dems have 10 seats to defend with sub 2% majorities, the idea that they'll lose 5 seats is fucking laughable, given that they're currently polling 10+ per cent below their 2010 showing

They are more likely to be left with 5. Only 3 of their seats are nailed on. Every other one is at real serious no messing about risk.

 

[JTG]

Cumbria
Remain NOC
Lab 35 (+10); C 26 (-13); LD 16 (+2); Ind 7 (+1)

 

[brogdale]

They are more likely to be left with 5. Only 3 of their seats are nailed on. Every other one is at real serious no messing about risk.

Agreed. That 52 figure undermines any confidence in their methodology, and anyway we're only half-way through the results from yesterday!

This is good for the LD deathwatch...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/

 

[JTG]

Tories have lost control of Norfolk. Previously held 60 of 84 seats

 

[butchersapron]

That's got to be UKIP coming through?

 

[brogdale]

That's got to be UKIP coming through?

it is, and they've taken seats Lab were targetting like in Gt Yarmouth.

 

[JTG]

That's got to be UKIP coming through?

Probably. Dunno if the Greens were targeting any further seats round Norwich way, not sure what they were starting out with

 

[belboid]

hmm, so Labour failed to gain Lancashire, not by much, but still. They'll need to gain Notts & Staffs to be able to claim any kind of good night

 

[butchersapron]

it is, and they've taken seats Lab were targetting like in Gt Yarmouth.

Ok, that might then be part of what you were saying earlier about UKIP's effect on labour. Will need to have a closer look.

 

[JTG]

hmm, so Labour failed to gain Lancashire, not by much, but still. They'll need to gain Notts & Staffs to be able to claim any kind of good night

Yeah, bit mixed in Bristol. Romped home in some areas but failed to take some of the suburban estates that they need to be winning

 

[brogdale]

Ok, that might then be part of what you were saying earlier about UKIP's effect on labour. Will need to have a closer look.

Like this one...