England local election results thread

[Lo Siento.]

Includes UKIP for these and euros. Think general election will be rather different - old split between first and second order elections. BNP were unable to break that barrier.

And of course, the papers have spent the last year doing free agitprop for UKIP, which will probably fall off in the run up to a GE.

 

[JTG]

Lib Dems have now lost seven seats on Bristol City Council out of eight they were defending. More still to come

 

[butchersapron]

And of course, the papers have spent the last year doing free agitprop for UKIP, which will probably fall off in the run up to a GE.

Yep, that will not be happening in 2015. No chance. Too dangerous.

 

[brogdale]

Yes, but I'm just saying there's nothing in there to worry Labour at all.

Early days and all that, but I'm really not so convinced that they've got nothing to worry about from UKIP.

 

[Fozzie Bear]

Yep, that will not be happening in 2015. No chance. Too dangerous.

It will be very interesting to see what kind of scrutiny and attention that UKIP get from the media and other areas in the next couple of years...

 

[Lo Siento.]

Early days and all that, but I'm really not so convinced that they've got nothing to worry about from UKIP.

Really? Which parts of the 35-40% support that Labour have been polling for a while now do you see them eating into? Even at the bottom of that range they'll probably win a majority.

 

[butchersapron]

It will be very interesting to see what kind of scrutiny and attention that UKIP get from the media and other areas in the next couple of years...

They will have started their work right now, could expose a lot of the ways that the parties and the media work together.

 

[mwgdrwg]

I wonder how Anglesey will turn out. I predict a mix of self-serving independents, Plaid, and UKIP/Tory freaks. It's nearly enough to put you off democracy and want the commissioners back in.

 

[Fozzie Bear]

They will have started their work right now, could expose a lot of the ways that the parties and the media work together.

Yes absolutely, saving it up for maximum impact... I'm not an expert but the first round would presumably be next year before the Euro elections?

 

[articul8]

This is sub-Luke Akehurst level stuff, articul8.

why?

 

[butchersapron]

Yes absolutely, saving it up for maximum impact... I'm not an expert but the first round would presumably be next year before the Euro elections?

Yep, has to be if they're going to derail them before the general election.

 

[sunny jim]

It will be very interesting to see what kind of scrutiny and attention that UKIP get from the media and other areas in the next couple of years...

This. I think getting loads of wingnuts elected will only spell doom for UKIP.

 

[Dogsauce]

Really? Which parts of the 35-40% support that Labour have been polling for a while now do you see them eating into? Even at the bottom of that range they'll probably win a majority.

It's worth pointing out these elections aren't a typical cross-section of the population too - this is predominantly the countryside voting, not the cities, so results are already skewed in the direction of the tories & the reactionary right.

Looking at overall percentages is meaningless from this sample, since for example UKIP's score is a percentage of *something*, but that *something* isn't the same as the full UK electorate. It's going to exaggerate their capabilities. Sympathetic media will focus on their percentage as though that's what they're capable of across the board. I suspect there will be some intelligent weighted analysis somewhere, but the Mail et al will be calling it for UKIP and calling on Dave to steer further to the right.

It was a similar thing with the BNP, media pointing out a few elections ago that they'd won 8% or whatever, but this was where they'd stood - places where they had some support, and nothing like they'd get if they fielded candidates everywhere.

 

[butchersapron]

Greens down 3% to 7% so far.

 

[treelover]

All three UKIP councillors elected in Boston are related. Insert punchline here. UKIP also won a by-election to Boston Borough Council

UKIP vote share in Hampshire 24.61%

isn't it Boston where they have been organising anti-immigration rallies?

 

[butchersapron]

isn't it Boston where they have been organising anti-immigration rallies?

UKIP haven't been organising them. They attended them.

 

[JTG]

Doncaster mayor too close to call. Apparently

 

[brogdale]

Really? Which parts of the 35-40% support that Labour have been polling for a while now do you see them eating into? Even at the bottom of that range they'll probably win a majority.

That's difficult to substantiate because those % are based on GE intentions polling, but the evidence on the ground is that in some of labour's LE targets their progress back from the 2009 debacle has been adversely affected by the UKIP surge.

 

[The39thStep]

Greens down 7% so far.

Following Lib Dem trend

 

[JTG]

Lib Dems have now lost 8 and held 3 in Bristol. Labour up 3, Greens up 2, Tories up 2 and Independents up 1

 

[butchersapron]

It's worth pointing out these elections aren't a typical cross-section of the population too - this is predominantly the countryside voting, not the cities, so results are already skewed in the direction of the tories & the reactionary right.

Looking at overall percentages is meaningless from this sample, since for example UKIP's score is a percentage of *something*, but that *something* isn't the same as the full UK electorate. It's going to exaggerate their capabilities. Sympathetic media will focus on their percentage as though that's what they're capable of across the board. I suspect there will be some intelligent weighted analysis somewhere, but the Mail et al will be calling it for UKIP and calling on Dave to steer further to the right.

It was a similar thing with the BNP, media pointing out a few elections ago that they'd won 8% or whatever, but this was where they'd stood - places where they had some support, and nothing like they'd get if they fielded candidates everywhere.

That it's these seats is why it's so potentially devastating for the tories and so good for labour.

 

[butchersapron]

Following Lib Dem trend

I meant down 3% to 7%

 

[J Ed]

Doncaster mayor too close to call. Apparently

Between who? the Independent and Labour?

 

[Lo Siento.]

That's difficult to substantiate because those % are based on GE intentions polling, but the evidence on the ground is that in some of labour's LE targets their progress back from the 2009 debacle has been adversely affected by the UKIP surge.

what evidence on the ground? The evidence you presented earlier that showed them winning a sufficient swing to win ALL their target seats? Even in an electoral contest that suits UKIP better than a GE will?

 

[Pickman's model]

i always like seeing previously unknown psephologists emerge at this sort of event

 

[butchersapron]

BNP lost last seat in Burnley.

 

[Fozzie Bear]

BNP lost last seat in Burnley.

Hope Not Hate seem to be very excited about it.

 

[Lo Siento.]

i always like seeing previously unknown psephologists emerge at this sort of event

do you have to be a psephologist to speculate on election results?

 

[JTG]

Between who? the Independent and Labour?

Dunno, presume so

Hertfordshire:
Conservative hold
New council: C 46 (-8); LD 16 (-1); Lab 15 (+12); G 0 (-1); Ind 0 (-1); Eng Dem 0 (-1)

 

[coley]

Yep, that will not be happening in 2015. No chance. Too dangerous.

Why not? the papers do like to cause mischief and they don't seem particularly enamoured of the 'old guard' these days.