England local election results thread

[The39thStep]

Didn't they beat the lib dems in South Shields? Or was that a different socialist grouping?


As someone on that Twitter pointed out, you wouldn't realise from the BBC coverage that the Greens actually have more councillors than UKIP. Not sure if they're being given the 'oxygen of publicity' or 'enough rope'. Or is it just that it makes a 'good story' for the news, pushing the far-right just because it's interesting/entertaining in the dull sphere of the main three-party political system?

Maybe it's strategic - more UKIP councillors gives more opportunity for a few of the hatstands to spout bigoted shite which can be held against them come the grown-ups election in 2015.

You can't find more bigoted people than the Greens in my opinion

 

[JTG]

Having said that about Yeovil, UKIP took Yeovil Central off the Lib Dems

 

[butchersapron]

Cor, them the UKIP are nasty plans worked out well then?

 

[The39thStep]

Hope Not Hates campaign worked well

 

[butchersapron]

Remember, this is them holding back from a full frontal attack,

 

[redsquirrel]

I could very well be eating my words about the 100 seats.

 

[The39thStep]

Vote UKIP to beat the BNP

 

[The39thStep]

I could very well be eating my words about the 100 seats.

I was going to mention this yesterday

 

[butchersapron]

Simon Hughes on SS:

"It's a seat where we've had not presence," he said.

Apart from them consistent 14% votes. Even the liberal, the proper liberals used to be able to get around that. Once people see that you have no chance, they will not turn up. You now only have a real chance in 5-10 seats. Your total vote is going to just walk away.

 

[Random]

I could very well be eating my words about the 100 seats.

You thought they'd get fewer?

 

[redsquirrel]

Aye, quite a lot less. I thought they'd get a decent share of vote but I didn't think it would translate into (that many) seats

 

[killer b]

because in the last few decades, that's all labour has done. a good election result has been taken by the party leadership* to justify them having moved right, and a bad result (or only a close win) has been taken to indicate a need to move further right.

* using the term loosely



I'd like to see labour set itself out as a real alternative, but can't see it happening.

Latest from Lincolnshire -

UKIP effect in Lincoln - broadly, labour gaining seats from tories, LD vote (previously 3rd place) evaporated, UKIP vote more than the labour majority. Obviously I can't tell where the lost LD / tory voters have gone, or where the UKIP / gained labour voters have come from...

Lincoln (although the parliamentary constituency is bigger than the city boundaries) is the sort of swing seat that tends to elect whatever shade of MP that wins the general election.

dunno, a vote like this for ukip is pure gold as far as the LP are concerned. they don't need to do anything - they can still mop up the 'pragmatic' left vote without having to do anything leftish, and why would they want to appeal to the UKIP voters who're cutting deep into the tory vote? can't see a bit rightward shift on the back of this myself, at least not from labour...

 

[The39thStep]

Aye, quite a lot less. I thought they'd get a decent share of vote but I didn't think it would translate into (that many) seats

vacancy at Permanent Revolutions political forecasting mutual

 

[brogdale]

Early evidence of the differential damage inflicted by UKIP:-

The BBC has just released some figures showing how the share of the vote has gone up in key wards. These are provisional figures, of course, because most results are not in.
Here are the figures for wards won by the Conservatives in 2009.
Ukip: up 21
Labour: up 6
Conservatives: down 10
Lib Dems: down 12
Here are the figures for wards won by Labour in 2009.
Ukip: up 15
Labour: up 13
Conservatives: down 10
Lib Dems: down 11
And here are the figures for wards won by the Lib Dems in 2009.
Ukip: up 16
Labour: up 6
Conservatives: down 8
Lib Dems: down 12

So, no surprise that they're denting the tories hardest, but Farage's affected concern for 'the working man' is having an impact on Labour as well.

 

[redsquirrel]

vacancy at Permanent Revolutions political forecasting mutual

Think I better stick to chemistry

 

[butchersapron]

dunno, a vote like this for ukip is pure gold as far as the LP are concerned. they don't need to do anything - they can still mop up the 'pragmatic' left vote without having to do anything leftish, and why would they want to appeal to the UKIP voters who're cutting deep into the tory vote? can't see a bit rightward shift on the back of this myself, at least not from labour...

Yep, the UKIP surge is hardly hitting them, and where it does it's tiny compared to how its hitting the tories, so they can swallow it. It's fantastic for them and the tory nightmare come true.

 

[ymu]

A lot of this UKIP South Shields analysis is bollocks isn't it? Claims that they've taken Labour votes when the Labour vote share was only down by a couple of points from 2010 and the Tory/Lib Dem vote collapsed. On the face of it, it's just the anti-Labour vote disappearing into UKIP

They clearly haven't taken (net) Labour votes in SS. Tory + LD losses and never voters attracted to the circus, account for the UKIP vote. They'll get SDP-type ex-Labour LD-defectors down south and some midlands/north rarities. North is centre-right protest takings, not seat-winning swings from Labour.

Outside the south the 4th parties that could fatally weaken Labour are the Greens and Respect in the Midlands and north plus Asian strongholds in the north. Rich pickings in the rural east (Norfolk, fens etc) too. Plaid in parts of Wales might be tactically forgiven for their collaborationist ways, SNP is the obvious way for Scotland to send a message to Westminster, irrelevant though they know the party to be down there.

I think it could be enough to hang Labour, if they don't pull their finger out soon and appeal to the massively obvious and numerically massive base of hacked off and impoverished cynics who will nevertheless turnout for a 'great deal better than the alternatives, and good riddance New Labour' type platform even if we can never hope for it to pay more than lip service to socialism. Tens of millions would benefit immediately from Keynesian stimulus to developing a fully sustainable economy within five parloaments with front-loaded tech and green investment with serious funding behind it.**

I think people are threatening to give all three a right good kicking in 2015, with some complex possibilities arising. Electoral chess. 2015 is many, many moves ahead. Time to compute outcome: approx 2 years.

/fantasy elections

**fantasy politica

Backed by all of us via taxes and ethical banking services with guaranteed open access free current and good value savings accounts with a public board sitting in public (on TV)selected jury style for paid 5 year non-executive terms with access to all training and technocratic translation as requested.

A million new sustainable homes in one parliament, priority urban brownfield sites, rebalancing family sizes catered for and offering public buyout of struggling home-owners who want to swap for a social tenancy for life.

Future building targets then to be determined by population growth and industrial shift with government guarantees to build up to the annual area targets if private builders are sitting on sites with planning permission and targets are missed. All new planning permission time limited. Social units to be selected by the council after private builds are complete and across a range of sizes, especially one and two bed flats.

Wages to be restored pro rata to the 65^ of the 1960 and 1970s with a 30 hour working week to ensure zero involuntary unemployment with tax breaks for companies that allow flexible working and use temporarily un-needed workers to work on improving product quality and reviewing management procesures.

Plenty of research shows that a high minimum wage this aids growth and prevents tax credits and in-work benefits from subsidising private profits rather than redistributing monies to families with higher costs, whilst keeping working in poverty and prone to insecure employment and periods of needing help to survive between jobs.


tl;dr Disavoy neoliberalism.

/fantasy politics

Wakes up.

 

[JTG]

Lib Dems in meltdown in Bristol, lost three so far to Inds, Greens and Tories

 

[coley]

Maybe a short prison term would encourage them to be grown ups and vote for one of the big three?

And mebbes they could end up as one of the " big three"? though TBH you can hardly count the LDs as " big"

 

[butchersapron]

And mebbes they could end up as one of the " big three"? though TBH you can hardly count the LDs as " big"

Well clearly this can't be allowed to happen. Only these three existing parties are acceptable. Are 'legitimate'.

 

[JTG]

Lib Dems in meltdown in Bristol, lost three so far to Inds, Greens and Tories

Four now. Just finished third in a seat they held, behind Labour and Green. This is fun, go on Bristol, more to come

 

[coley]

Well clearly this can't be allowed to happen. Only these three existing parties are acceptable. Are 'legitimate'.

All of whom seem to be trying on Some of UKIPs clothes on for size, guaranteed EU referendum, tighter immigration controls? I expect some frantic scrambling from messrs Milliband and Cameron, and if Salmond prevails? Interesting times ahead

 

[JTG]

Tory leader of Warwickshire CC has lost to the Greens

 

[JTG]

Bristol so far: LD 1 (-4); L 1 (+1); C 2 (+1); G 1 (+1); Ind 1 (+1)

17 more to come in

 

[Joe Reilly]

Vote UKIP to beat the BNP

Or maybe the other way round?

 

[JTG]

.

 

[butchersapron]

Rogers gone then. Lovely.

 

[articul8]

Rogers gone then. Lovely.

really? I know (sort of) 3 candidates in that ward

 

[JTG]

Rogers gone then. Lovely.

Yep. Lib Dems five down in Bristol, pushed into third in more than one of them

 

[butchersapron]

I thought i was on the bristol thread there. Do you really articul8? That's great.