England local election results thread

[JimW]

Though I suppose boringly it likely just says something about where you find people willing to be candidates when you're building rapidly.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

now 11 ukippers in Lincs CC

 

[butchersapron]

Though I suppose boringly it likely just says something about where you find people willing to be candidates when you're building rapidly.

There's that, not ness a problem - but these people, maybe involved in the bypass stuff as a group? Don't know obv.

 

[JimW]

Not sure if I've misunderstood their thread there but seem to be suggesting Labour are going to take control of Essex CC. Is that likely/possible?

 

[JimW]

There's that, not ness a problem - but these people, maybe involved in the bypass stuff as a group? Do't know obv.

I was more thinking about some sort of Japanese politics stylee family-run town, but then realised I don't even know if that's how Japanese politics works. So rambling shite really. Though that same family in Boston also provided a narrowly losing candidate too. Worse than the Millibands.

 

[butchersapron]

Not sure if I've misunderstood their thread there but seem to be suggesting Labour are going to take control of Essex CC. Is that likely/possible?

That would be beyond astonishing. That would involve almost every seat going opposite.

 

[JimW]

That would be beyond astonishing.

It's some 5 am post on the last page of that Essex thread asking:

Is this the only time Labour have won a county council in the South? Having solid Labour Barking and Dagenham within its boundaries helped Labour massively in those days.

Read more:http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/526/essex?page=3#ixzz2SBZcIAKz

Can't think they just mean a seat, but from more recent posts looks like first results only just coming in so maybe that's a Labour apparatchik on the sauce.
ETA: Or more likely I've missed some historical discussion preceding.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Not sure if I've misunderstood their thread there but seem to be suggesting Labour are going to take control of Essex CC. Is that likely/possible?

sounds pretty unlikely - latest here

currently

Tory - 15 seats (1 gain, 7 losses, 14 held)
Labour - 5 seats (4 gain, 1 held)
LD - 4 seats (1 loss, 4 held)
UKIP - 3 seats (3 gain)
Ind - 1 (1 held)

While there's 49 seats to declare, I can't see all that many of them going labour

ETA - can't remember a time there was a labour shire county in the south east.

even in the tory meltdown in 1993 (when Buckinghamshire was the only remaining tory controlled shire) the rest of the south east was 'no overall control' - to some extent reflecting labour voters being prepared to vote LD tactically

 

[JimW]

sounds pretty unlikely - latest here

currently

Tory - 15 seats (1 gain, 7 losses, 14 held)
Labour - 5 seats (4 gain, 1 held)
LD - 4 seats (1 loss, 4 held)
UKIP - 3 seats (3 gain)
Ind - 1 (1 held)

While there's 49 seats to declare, I can't see all that many of them going labour

Yeah, think I've seized on that post out of context of a historical discussion they were having. Sorry. I know the thread needs a bit of spicing up while we wait but not with any old random bullshit from me.

 

[butchersapron]

It's some 5 am post on the last page of that Essex thread asking:

Can't think they just mean a seat, but from more recent posts looks like first results only just coming in so maybe that's a Labour apparatchik on the sauce.
ETA: Or more likely I've missed some historical discussion preceding.

Look at the dates on that man. 15 minutes in the electoral shed for that.

 

[JimW]

Look at the dates on that man. 15 minutes in the electoral shed for that.

My first scan took it to be someone asking if this was first ever Lab CC win in south and then them older dates being people saying no, not unprecedented. But I'll take the sin-binning as I've definitely got that round my neck.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Article on Labour List here about Labour's chances for the county elections - recognising that getting councils to 'no overall control' is about the best that can be hoped for with one or two exceptions, especially bearing in mind the major government's gerrymandering* to remove the urban areas from many of the shires to become unitary authorities.

* - my expression not theirs.

 

[elbows]

UKIP councillors at the time of writing:

Lincolnshire 16
Essex 8
Hampshire 10
Gloucestershire 3
Dorset 1

edit - updated at 3am and now I'm going to bed.
edit again - ok one last pointless update for the night at 3.21am.

 

[ymu]

sounds pretty unlikely - latest here

currently

Tory - 15 seats (1 gain, 7 losses, 14 held)
Labour - 5 seats (4 gain, 1 held)
LD - 4 seats (1 loss, 4 held)
UKIP - 3 seats (3 gain)
Ind - 1 (1 held)

While there's 49 seats to declare, I can't see all that many of them going labour

ETA - can't remember a time there was a labour shire county in the south east.

even in the tory meltdown in 1993 (when Buckinghamshire was the only remaining tory controlled shire) the rest of the south east was 'no overall control' - to some extent reflecting labour voters being prepared to vote LD tactically

Still looks very good for Labour though. With 49 left to declare and 28 there, and all else being equal, Labour set to gain 7 more (11 total, to 14ish)? Tories 1-2 more (2-3 total, to 41ish)? LDs to lose 1 or 2 more (10ish)? UKIP +8 total? That's 73, so 4 to the others/indies.

Slim Tory control. On a nutty council. Joy.

All else might not be equal. Tories and frothy-mouthed types vote early and often in areas with lots of dutiful civic volunteers and well-funded counts. There might be a small bias towards better off areas declaring early. Dependent on local traditions of course. Relatively high turnout for locals, I think.

Tory hung council not impossible. Coalition with UKIP?

/thoughts

 

[elbows]

UKIP just got another one in Lincolnshire.

Nearly got one in Dorset but ended up with two votes less than the Tory.

 

[elbows]

Current Essex:

Tory 41
Labour 9
Lib Dem 9
UKIP 8
Green 2
Others 4

Only a couple left to declare there.

 

[ymu]

What's their previous track record in locals? They're standing relatively enormous numbers of new candidates, aren't they? I've only seen N/A on gains. It's astonishing. UKIP is supposed to be for the Euros.

We may have a new third party. And one which might just have an edge over the Lib Dems in terms of efficient geographical distribution of voters (many or few voters, not many wasted in between). Not necessarily in time for 2015, although I think all 4th parties and many indies will do well (if not well enough to win huge numbers of seats).

But if they can avoid implosion, well ... the LDs aren't going to be around in great numbers, although I think the lack of any other tactical vote in areas where UKIP is irrelevant will save their skin, but not Clegg's.

Big if. They're a shambles. And I think the odds of a a Savile-esque problem, or other corruption-cover-up type scandals, might arise from all this publicity and rapid, somewhat reckless expansionism. Farage may come to rue the day, but the snake oil salesman's timing is impeccable. And a lot of people like him.

Interesting times. They'll smash the Euros for sure. Let's hope TUSC puts up a great fight from the left. 2015 is a long shot but I smell seats up for grabs, and Green gains, and non-English parties trumping Labour. The left needs to soak up more of the protest/sick-of-them-all vote and, IMO, they need to do it by loudly proclaiming that austerity is a fraud. It needs fucking shouting until even the BBC report it.

/stuff

 

[ymu]

Current Essex:

Tory 41
Labour 9
Lib Dem 9
UKIP 8
Green 2
Others 4

Only a couple left to declare there.

Greens nicked a couple from Labour. Excellent. 75 seats, not 77, if it is only 2 to declare. Close enough. All else was equal.

Applied statistics.

 

[ymu]

Duh. The bias in the sample was the other way round. Labour areas declared a tad earlier on average (smaller turnouts?), Greens too small to be captured by the sample, likely to have made their gains from Labour, later on.

Sorry. Can't help myself. I love a good local election, me.

 

[elbows]

To answer one of your questions, I am under the impression that UKIP only had 7 county councillors by the end of the 2009 vote, and I dont think any of them were in the areas that have counted tonight. But I am rather tired now so possibly made an error. Going to bed.

 

[Fez909]

This counting in the morning business is rubbish.

 

[elbows]

I'm still up, just. UKIP now have 16 seats in Lincolnshire!

 

[Random]

Dubbel postering

 

[Random]

Dorest; no tories left on weymouth and portland council as LP take 5. Via Labour List live blog, which has stopped updating till 9am

 

[Yossarian]

Is she a real 'lady'

I think she might be Robert Kilroy-Silk.

 

[JTG]

A lot of this UKIP South Shields analysis is bollocks isn't it? Claims that they've taken Labour votes when the Labour vote share was only down by a couple of points from 2010 and the Tory/Lib Dem vote collapsed. On the face of it, it's just the anti-Labour vote disappearing into UKIP

 

[goldenecitrone]

Emma Lewell-Buck (Lab) 12,493 (50.51%, -1.51%)
Richard Elvin (UKIP) 5,988 (24.21%)
Karen Allen (C) 2,857 (11.55%, -10.04%)
Ahmed Khan (Ind) 1,331 (5.38%)
Phil Brown (Ind Soc) 750 (3.03%)
Lady Dorothy MacBeth Brookes (BNP) 711 (2.87%, -3.65%)
Hugh Annand (LD) 352 (1.42%, -12.79%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 197 (0.80%)
Thomas Darwood (Ind) 57 (0.23%)
Lab maj 6,505 (26.30%)

Lib Dems get only half as many votes as the BNP in South Shields and lose their deposit.

 

[JTG]

Summary for the morning crew:

South Shields: Labour 50.5%; UKIP 24%; Tories 10%; Ind 5%; Ind Socialist 3%; BNP 3%; Lib Dem 1.5%

Labour's Norma Redfearn has won the North Tyneside mayor vote on the first count with 55% of the vote. Tory incumbent took 36% and Lib Dems 8%

Councils: Tories have lost Gloucestershire and Lincolnshire to no overall control & retain control of Dorset, Somerset, Hampshire, Essex and Hertfordshire. Tories down 66 seats so far, Lib Dems down 15, Labour up 30, UKIP up 42, Independents up 6, Greens up 2 and Residents Association up 1. All this after 7 councils have declared their results. Another 27 to go.

UKIP have gained 9 seats in Essex, 10 in Hampshire, 3 in Gloucestershire, 16 in Lincolnshire, 1 in Dorset, 3 in Somerset

Labour won all five Weymouth & Portland Dorset CC seats

Two Green gains were in Essex - Rochford West & Witham North

 

[brogdale]

352 votes. Wow. (lib-dems that is) Out of what 80 000 people.

That is obliteration.

 

[brogdale]

Before the live coverage cranks up on the BBC it might be useful to (re)post the Rallings & Thrasher numbers they predicted in April..

These are their national equivalent vote (NEV) figures - not the share of votes they expect the parties to actually get, but an estimate of what they parties would have got if local elections had been held in every ward in Britain based on the votes that were cast.

Labour: 38%
Conservatives: 29%
Lib Dems: 16%
Ukip: 11%

And, based on those figures, these are the gains and losses that Rallings and Thrasher predicted.

Labour: 350 gains
Ukip: 40 gains
Lib Dems: 130 losses
Conservatives: 350 losses

Although the 'kippers have already exceeded that prediction with only a fraction of seats called!