I stand corrected.
Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
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Numbers
an ting!
May I ask what medication? I’m currently taking mesalazine for diverticulosis.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
wayward bob
i ate all your bees
Douglas Adams right again: Lack of phone sanitizers will doom planet
As you doubtlessly remember, somewhere in the Hitchhiker’s Guide series Mr. Adams told the story of the The Golgafrinchans, a race of people who sent their Telephone Sanitizer population away…
collateraldamage.wordpress.com
pesh
Well-Known Member
it was a bit mad watching Trumps Corona Presser last night, he went on for so long the information he was giving out went out of date... bigging up the containment policy saying it was working perfectly while the Washington Post was tweeting about the first case of unknown origin being discovered in northern California.
Yossarian
⏭️
Pope cancels visit with Rome priests for 'slight' illness
VATICAN CITY (AP) — Pope Francis is sick and skipped a planned Mass with Rome clergy across town on Thursday, officials said. The Vatican said the 83-year-old pontiff had a “slight indisposition" and would proceed with the rest of his planned work on Thursday...
apnews.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
He managed to stay roughly on message during the prepared speech but veered off a number of times during the Q&A. He was going on about Ebola causing people to disintegrate again.
They probably wanted to have that sort of press conference before the possible community spread case was revealed. That case had been in a hospital since Feb 19th and if I read properly had also been ventilated at a previous hospital before being transferred. https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article240682311.html
elbows
Well-Known Member
I just hope these sorts of actions by other countries lead to more scrutiny of our own approach.
Have you heard anything about a (fiction) book published in 1981 by Dean Koontz called ‘The Eyes of Darkness’?
Apparently it eerily ‘predicts’ this Coronavirus outbreak though in the book the virus is referred to as ‘Wuhan-400’.
Maybe one for the tinfoilers but very strange nonetheless.
ska invita
back on the other side
no
Was Coronavirus Predicted in a 1981 Dean Koontz Novel?
A speculative anticipation of a possibility is very different than a 'prediction.'
www.snopes.com
Here are a few things this “prediction” gets wrong:
- In Koontz’s novel, “Wuhan-400” is a human-made weapon. The coronavirus, on the other hand, was not.
- In the novel, “Wuhan-400” has a 100% fatality rate. While researchers are still learning about the coronavirus, the current fatality rate sits at about 2%.
- The fictional “Wuhan-400” has an extremely quick incubation period of about four hours, compared to COVID-19 which has an incubation period between two and 14 days.
But there’s more bad news for this prediction.
While the page from Koontz’s novel displayed above is genuine, other iterations of this book used a different name for the fictional biological weapon. In fact, when we searched a 1981 edition of this book available via Google Books we found no references to “Wuhan.” In that edition, this biological weapon is called “Gorki-400” after the Russian city where it was created.
https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2020/02/gorki-400.png
Yossarian
⏭️
It was apparently a Russian virus called "Gorki-400" in the original and Koontz changed it to a Chinese virus after the end of the Cold War.
China wasn’t original villain in book ‘predicting’ coronavirus outbreak
Much has been made of Dean Koontz’s 1981 book The Eyes of Darkness which appeared to have predicted the recent coronavirus outbreak – but in the original version the villain was Russia, not China.
www.scmp.com
ska invita
back on the other side
Fake Democrat news. We should Build A Wall around whoever wrote that article and Lock Them UpJust read a very depressing article speculating that this virus could possibly infect 60% of the world population
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I’m on the biological stuff, adlimumab injections, plus azothioprine. Been on both for more than a decade, although used to have a different biological via infusion rather than injection.
Before I started working in a school I was pretty resilient, rarely getting coughs and sneezes when they were going round work. It’s like my immune system has given up now, or been overwhelmed. Might also be getting things brought home by my kids (one at preschool, one with childminder a couple of days a week).
andysays
Love and solidarity
Just read a very depressing article speculating that this virus could possibly infect 60% of the world population
Please stop posting this shit or I will ask for you to be banned from the thread
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
I already posted this on another thread, but relevant here. Interesting five minute interview with Prof Neil Ferguson of J-Idea on Radio 4 today programme this morning (first mentioned by hash tag). Begins at 2:12:40
www.bbc.co.uk
Today - 27/02/2020 - BBC Sounds
News and current affairs, including Sports Desk, Weather and Thought for the Day.
www.bbc.co.uk
Mrs Miggins
Eternal
I don't know why people take any notice of this kind of thing. It's not a prediction nor is it strange in any way. It's a coincidence.
Is anyone seriously suggesting that scifi novelist Dean Koontz can predict the future?
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
I am going to write an email to the Health Secretary & Public Health England urging stronger and proactive nonpharmaceutical interventions.
I urge a read of this article about differing responses to the previous world pandemic in 1918, very stats heavy
The first cases of disease among civilians in Philadelphia were reported on September 17, 1918, but authorities downplayed their significance and allowed large public gatherings, notably a city-wide parade on September 28, 1918, to continue. School closures, bans on public gatherings, and other social distancing interventions were not implemented until October 3, when disease spread had already begun to overwhelm local medical and public health resources.
cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates ≈50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (≈20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak death rates. This finding was not unexpected, given that few cities maintained NPIs longer than 6 weeks in 1918. Early implementation of certain interventions, including closure of schools, churches, and theaters, was associated with lower peak death rates, but no single intervention showed an association with improved aggregate outcomes for the 1918 phase of the pandemic. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid implementation of multiple NPIs can significantly reduce influenza transmission, but that viral spread will be renewed upon relaxation of such measures.
Also we are now at a stage where China has an Iran traveller developing symptoms in Zhongwei, sparsely populated Ningxia, and the suspicion is that the virus might have been contracted in Iran not China.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I already posted this on another thread, but relevant here. Interesting five minute interview with Prof Neil Ferguson of J-Idea on Radio 4 today programme this morning (first mentioned by hash tag). Begins at 2:12:40
Today - 27/02/2020 - BBC Sounds
News and current affairs, including Sports Desk, Weather and Thought for the Day.
Thanks for that.
Same themes that we hae discussed before but here is a partial recap for anyone who isnt going to get round to listening to that:
Detected cases and deaths in Italy suggest an outbreak that began 3-4 weeks ago (the lag I always talk about). Detected cases represent only a fraction of likely total cases there.
Discussion about what measures to take in the UK. Balancing economic cost & other disruption against the aim of blunting the peak to help the health system. He doesnt think we will close off towns, but social distancing was mentioned and the possibility of school closures vs economic implications was discussed.
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
Pulling another R4 Today programme link out of my big bag of them - I believe the 60% figure was widely reported a couple of weeks ago following this earlier Prof Neil Ferguson interview on Today programme on 12th Feb:
Today - 12/02/2020 - BBC Sounds
News and current affairs, including Sports Desk, Weather and Thought for the Day.
www.bbc.co.uk
The interview begins at 2:10:50, but the specific question and answer which mentions 60% begins at 2:17:00. It was a somewhat qualified reply and as you will hear, he only said “maybe up to 60% of the population getting infected”, but the news websites and papers later picked up and ran with it quite widely.
In fairness to Marty1, not sure why he’s getting hammered for mentioning a number which does come from a respected source and which was discussed many pages previously in this thread, without anyone getting told to FO.
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SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I'm assuming this is a joke but for the avoidance of doubt please don't anybody do this.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Surely this will cause economic chaos as parents stay home from work to look after their kids.
Be careful with that type of language - the self appointed hall monitors on this thread may make recommendations for your removal.
Regarding antivirals - haven’t read anything about spivs but at Trumps recent press conference there was mention of an antiviral for the US being available in approx 1 year or so.
ska invita
back on the other side
See his earlier post on this thread (and elsewhere) is why. He's been parroting Trumps conspiracy line on this.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The 1 year-18 months mentioned in that press conference was a suggested timescale for a vaccine.
Antivirals are a different matter. Remdesivir was mentioned, as that is undergoing trial, but I dont remember if any timing estimates for that were given in that particular press conference, no would be my tentative answer.
Cid
Proper break this time
Pulling another R4 Today programme link out of my big bag of them - I believe the 60% figure was widely reported a couple of weeks ago following this earlier Prof Neil Ferguson interview on Today programme on 12th Feb:
Today - 12/02/2020 - BBC Sounds
News and current affairs, including Sports Desk, Weather and Thought for the Day.
The interview begins at 2:10:50, but the specific question and answer which mentions 60% begins at 2:17:00. It was a somewhat qualified reply and as you will hear, he only said “maybe up to 60% of the population getting infected”, but the news websites and papers later picked up and ran with it quite widely.
In fairness to Marty1, not sure why he’s getting hammered for mentioning a number which does come from a respected source and which was discussed many pages previously in this thread, without anyone getting told to FO.
Whenever prof. Ferguson crops up here my brain automatically says ‘and what does that cunt know about pandemics?!’. Neil... Neil. Not Niall.
