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[elbows]

Surely this will cause economic chaos as parents stay home from work to look after their kids.

I dont think Japan wants its people to carry on with business as usual. Cancelling public events and closing schools are two large steps that do tend to ensure that no sense of normality persists.

 

[elbows]

Whenever prof. Ferguson crops up here my brain automatically says ‘and what does that cunt know about pandemics?!’. Neil... Neil. Not Niall.

One fights pandemics at Imperial College London. The other is a one man pandemic of imperialist shite.

 

[Yu_Gi_Oh]

I'm amazed at how little social distancing seems to be going on here in Seoul. People are still in restaurants, in groups, eating together, sitting around in cafes in close confines with so many other people, with everyone unmasked.

So many people wear masks but pull them down below their noses.

People are bulk-buying in the supermarkets too. There's still lots of produce, but some stuff is selling out. There are also long lines of people queuing to buy masks.

 

[Pickman's model]

So the only person I've seen wearing a mask in my week of travelling around London was the woman at the Bureau de Change. Go figure.

seen lots of people wearing masks in london, mostly apparently japanese and chinese people.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?

 

[elbows]

The Guardian noticed that the New York Times noticed that the California case is an example of missing a case for quite a long time because of narrow criteria for suspecting Covid-19.

Doctors at the University of California, Davis, Medical Center considered the novel pathogen a possible diagnosis when the person was first admitted last week.

But the federal agency that conducts the testing did not administer the test until days later because the case did not fit the agency’s narrow testing criteria, university officials said in a letter to the campus community.

40m ago 13:54

 

[Yu_Gi_Oh]

Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?

I know they're not large areas to control, but Singapore and Hong Kong seem to be on top of things. I really thought Korea would be able to handle this too though.

 

[elbows]

Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?

You wont be alone, but I dont think you appreciate what a 1% mortality rate means if, and only if, the percentage of the population infected in a narrow period of time is also very high.

It is not possible to build a completely accurate picture of any of the details yet, including the true mortality rate, or of how much difference containment and mitigation measures will have. WHO are running with the idea that the draconian measures China took have made a huge difference.

I dont know when exactly it will become clearer whether countries have overreacted or under-reacted. It could happen quickly, or it might take a long time to figure it out. Some countries may try one approach and then have to do a dramatic u-turn. The assumptions you are basing your stance on are not safe at all, but if we are very lucky then that stance will end up being justified anyway.

 

[Marty1]

I'm amazed at how little social distancing seems to be going on here in Seoul. People are still in restaurants, in groups, eating together, sitting around in cafes in close confines with so many other people, with everyone unmasked.

So many people wear masks but pull them down below their noses.

People are bulk-buying in the supermarkets too. There's still lots of produce, but some stuff is selling out. There are also long lines of people queuing to buy masks.

Saw something online saying the best masks are the painters style masks which stop certain particles from entering, whereas the surgical masks aren’t much use other than just a physical barrier from the wearer containing any sneezes/coughs.

 

[elbows]

 

[Yu_Gi_Oh]

Saw something online saying the best masks are the painters style masks which stop certain particles from entering, whereas the surgical masks aren’t much use other than just a physical barrier from the wearer containing any sneezes/coughs.

Yeah, surgical masks aren't very popular here. Everyone wants KF94 respirators. Having found myself caught short in China, I started buying them as soon as I got into Korea, so we haven't had to join the queues to buy more this week.

 

[Teaboy]

If anything positive is to come out of this gutting the Iranian theocracy would be it.

 

[elbows]

Italy is providing examples of what happens when economic interests influence the anti-panic message. All manner of things that do not fairly belong under the banner of 'epidemic of misinformation' will be lumped in, and there will be propaganda.

Italy’s government is in fightback mode, trying a concerted approach to lessen the coronavirus panic. The foreign minister warned that an “epidemic of misleading information” would damage Italy “more than the virus itself”, which, he added, had infected 0.1% of towns in the country. “It’s time to stop the panic”, said the prime minister, asking the national broadcaster Rai to “tone down”.

On the front pages of Italian newspapers, the top story is no longer the rising number of cases – now more than 520, with 14 deaths – but appeals for calm. The mayor of Milan, where many hotels and restaurants are half-empty, has called for some museums to reopen. A new video released by the authorities shows vibrant scenes from the city with the message: we’re not afraid and we’re open for business.

But this is a story driven by perceptions. And with Donald Trump mentioning possible future travel restrictions to Italy, with Israel barring foreigners arriving on flights from Italy, with Kuwait evacuating its nationals from Milan, the Italian government faces a challenge to change the narrative.

From BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51655133



Yes, that means its time to dust off this video.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

So the only person I've seen wearing a mask in my week of travelling around London was the woman at the Bureau de Change. Go figure.

Sensible - cash must be crawling with germs.

 

[sihhi]

Surely this will cause economic chaos as parents stay home from work to look after their kids.

Real economic chaos is letting the health system be overrun.
No economy can operate without a supplied health system.

I yesterday read a long account about a family in Wuhan 3 people, mum, a cancer ward patient, + dad + daughter.
Dad + daughter infected. Dad died, daughter survived, mum died 5 days after dad, because no staff to perform procedures.

 

[LDC]

Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?

You're wrong. It's about 1-2% fatality rate among some groups, much much higher among older/sicker people. Also 2% fatality rate of the 70% of the UK population that may be infected at worse case is nearly 1 million deaths in the UK alone.

 

[Kaka Tim]

You're wrong. It's about 1-2% fatality rate among some groups, much much higher among older/sicker people. Also 2% fatality rate of the 70% of the UK population that may be infected at worse case is nearly 1 million deaths in the UK alone.

but is a 70% infection rate remotely likely? previous similar virus haven't come close to that. is this one notably different? (genuine question). Is what we are seeing acceptable risk management or an overreaction that has worse consequences than the actual virus.

 

[Marty1]

Sensible - cash must be crawling with germs.

Gives a new meaning to ‘dirty money.’

 

[sihhi]

but is a 70% infection rate remotely likely? previous similar virus haven't come close to that. is this one notably different? (genuine question). Is what we are seeing acceptable risk management or an overreaction that has worse consequences than the actual virus.

Nowhere near enough risk management, I am afraid. The risks are very high.

China's CDC this morning had a info report saying 60% of cases that became critical ended with fatality.
If I understand it correctly, this means we can expect the 8,500 odd critical patients in China's statistics to sooner or later give us an extra thousands of deaths. The problem is different regions have different criteria for deaths.
A 23 year old national female futsal player died in Qom according to state media.

It's very lethal and very infectious.

Bahrain with under 10 cases has closed all private and public schools, universities, and nurseries for the next two weeks.

 

[Pickman's model]

Bahrain with under 10 cases has closed all private and public schools, universities, and nurseries for the next two weeks.

bahrain is smaller than london

 

[LDC]

but is a 70% infection rate remotely likely? previous similar virus haven't come close to that. is this one notably different? (genuine question). Is what we are seeing acceptable risk management or an overreaction that has worse consequences than the actual virus.

I personally don't know if it's likely, but from what the clever people with experience in this field are saying it's definitely possible. And all the measures are going to be a balance as you say. But given the tendency for the economy to usually be prioritized over human health, and the general unpredictability of this as we're in the early stages, I think it's not ridiculous to err on the side of caution.

 

[Marty1]

bahrain is smaller than london

But similar population density?

 

[Kaka Tim]

I personally don't know if it's likely, but from what the clever people with experience in this field are saying it's definitely possible. And all the measures are going to be a balance as you say. But given the tendency for the economy to usually be prioritized over human health, and the general unpredictability of this as we're in the early stages, I think it's not ridiculous to err on the side of caution.

its hard to quantify - but economic damage could quite easily indirectly cause more deaths than the virus- (look at the effects of austerity in the UK - hundreds of thousands of deaths over the past 10 years).

Also - there are other potentially fatal diseases out there. 14,000 people died from flu in the uk last year - but infection control measures weren't thought remotely necessary. How is this worse? (again - genuine question)

 

[Teaboy]

its hard to quantify - but economic damage could quite easily indirectly cause more deaths than the virus- (look at the effects of austerity in the UK - hundreds of thousands of deaths over the past 10 years).

Also - there are other potentially fatal diseases out there. 14,000 people died from flu in the uk last year - but infection control measures weren't thought remotely necessary. How is this worse? (again - genuine question)

Both good points. Though with the flu there was a vaccine as there always is but I think last years was a bit shit.

 

[Pickman's model]

But similar population density?

Not really no

 

[elbows]

but is a 70% infection rate remotely likely? previous similar virus haven't come close to that. is this one notably different? (genuine question). Is what we are seeing acceptable risk management or an overreaction that has worse consequences than the actual virus.

What similar virus are you referring to?

I prfer ranges to single stimates anyway, so 40%-70% of adults if no control measures are taken is one estimate. But that estimate is built on top of other estimates.

Only time will ultimately answer all of these questions, but then if the answers are bad it will be too late to prevent some of the damage.

 

[elbows]

I'll see that and raise you:


Fortunately later on on Newsnight there are some more measured voices after that headline grabbing opener.

BBC live updates page picked up on this a little while ago.

The BBC's Newsnight programme understands that the Cabinet Office has been in contact with local authorities about their preparedness, specifically with regard to their “Excess Death Contingency Planning”. This includes, among other things, where local authorities might locate new, and perhaps mass, burial sites, should they be needed.

The government stresses that these are worst-case contingency plans and a Whitehall source confirms that they have been done before, albeit rarely, for example at the time of the 2009 Sars outbreak.

A Cabinet Office spokesman said: “We have been clear from the outset that we expect coronavirus to have some impact on the UK, which is why we are planning for every eventuality – including the reasonable worst case scenario. Crucially this does not mean we expect it to happen."

Its a shame they can't get their facts right. SARS was 2003, 2009 was swine flu.

 

[Teaboy]

I'm amazed at how little social distancing seems to be going on here in Seoul. People are still in restaurants, in groups, eating together, sitting around in cafes in close confines with so many other people, with everyone unmasked.

So many people wear masks but pull them down below their noses.

People are bulk-buying in the supermarkets too. There's still lots of produce, but some stuff is selling out. There are also long lines of people queuing to buy masks.

No such risk in Taiwan.

 

[elbows]

WHO fixed the mistake in their workplace guide.

Error:

Risk of serious illness rises with age: people over 40 seem to be more vulnerable than those under 50.

Fixed version:

Risk of serious illness rises with age: people over 40 seem to be more vulnerable than those under 40.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/getting-workplace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf

 

[Marty1]

WHO fixed the mistake in their workplace guide.

Error:



Fixed version:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/getting-workplace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf

I guess that’s a huge concern for the House of Lords not to mention retirement homes etc.