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[elbows]

UK chief medical officer Chris Whitty:

One of the things that’s really clear with this virus, much more so than flu, is that anything we do we’re going to have to do for quite a long period of time, probably more than two months.

“The implications of that are non-trivial, so we need to think that through carefully.

“This is something we face as really quite a serious problem for society potentially if this goes out of control. It may not but if it does globally then we may have to face that.”

If this becomes a global epidemic then the UK will get it, and if it does not become a global epidemic the UK is perfectly capable of containing and getting rid of individual cases leading to onward transmission.

“If it is something which is containable, the UK can contain it. If it is not containable, it will be non-containable everywhere and then it is coming our way.”

51m ago 16:21

 

[elbows]

And the BBCs take on the same:

While the coronavirus presents "some challenges", it will not be anything like the scale of the deadly Spanish Flu pandemic, England's chief medical officer has said.

Speaking to health professionals at the Nuffield Trust Summit in Windsor, Professor Chris Whitty said: "We are not heading into a H1N1 1918 flu pandemic situation but the coronavirus does present some challenges for us. It definitely will for a period. How big remains to be seen."

He said onward transmission in the UK was "just a matter of time in my view".

Prof Whitty said there could be a "social cost" if the virus worsens, which could result in the reduction of mass gatherings and school closures for more than two months.

From their live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51655133

 

[planetgeli]

It's not all bad news.

US and UK stock markets plunge as coronavirus panic hits shares — as it happened

Markets around the world are being spooked by the coronavirus crisis

www.theguardian.com

And Netflix up 2.7% because presumably we're all going to be watching a bit more telly.

 

[Supine]

It's not all bad news.

US and UK stock markets plunge as coronavirus panic hits shares — as it happened

Markets around the world are being spooked by the coronavirus crisis

www.theguardian.com

And Netflix up 2.7% because presumably we're all going to be watching a bit more telly.

Bad news if you have a pension

 

[SpookyFrank]

Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?

It's all about the 1% these days.

To me the futlity of all the containment stuff comes not from the risk to life but from the chances of success. Which are, at this point, in the low zeroes.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Bad news if you have a pension

As is the virus itself tbf.

 

[elbows]

To me the futlity of all the containment stuff comes not from the risk to life but from the chances of success. Which are, at this point, in the low zeroes.

The label containment is easily stuck with for too long by authorities. If its renamed and explained as mitigation instead then it still serves a purpose long after actual containment has clearly failed.

 

[ska invita]

Bad news if you have a pension

some perspective

 

[weltweit]

Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?

First, I think the fatality rate might be 2% so twice your number. And that 2% is of the whole infected population. If you are in one of the higher risk groups, i.e. older people or people with existing conditions, the rate among those groups will be much greater than 2%.

So perhaps you are young and vigorous, you think I am allright jack, but what about your parents, or your grandparents, or anyone you know who is a smoker, or your friend's parents or grand parents, an elderly neighbour?

 

[Part-timah]

I guess that’s a huge concern for the House of Lords not to mention retirement homes etc.

...and the Conservative Party

 

[Supine]

some perspective

We can revisit that in six months

 

[sihhi]

bahrain is smaller than london

Iraq has six cases closed all schools and universities until March 7 as a minimum.

The scale of the problem in Korea is staggering: (6th LD) S. Korea's virus cases top 1,700 on surge in infected church followers | Yonhap News Agency

In an alarming sign that the novel coronavirus is spreading more widely in South Korea, the total number of cases in the capital of Seoul and Busan, the second-largest city, rose to 56 and 61, respectively. Critically ill people infected with the virus are treated in so-called negative pressure rooms at hospitals to prevent the virus from further spreading within hospitals.
As such facilities have been overwhelmed in Daegu, big hospitals in Seoul said they will accept virus patients who are in critical condition.

 

[two sheds]

Following on from the highly perceptive question upthread:

How long can coronavirus survive on any surface?

The World Health Organisation says: "It is still not known how long the 2019-nCoV virus survives on surfaces, although preliminary information suggests the virus may survive a few hours or more. Simple disinfectants can kill the virus making it no longer possible to infect people."

Now, a news report in ScienceAlert s a new study suggesting that the new coronavirus could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week and up to nine days at room temperature. ...

What does, however, seem very likely is that it could survive on a surface for a few hours if not for a day and therefore, there is a high risk of contracting the virus if exposed to such contaminated surfaces." ...

High relative humidity seemed less favourable to the virus unless the temperature came down to 6 degree celsius. At this temperature, the survival of the virus was significantly enhanced whatever the rate of relative humidity." He says, "this enhanced survival rate at high relative humidity and low temperature may explain the winter propagation of Coronaviruses." ...

"coronavirus can survive at least two weeks after drying at temperature and humidity conditions found in an air-conditioned environment." Also, "contaminated surfaces may play a major role in the transmission of infection in the hospital and the community." He says, "coronavirus can retain its infectivity up to 2 weeks at low temperature and low humidity, which might facilitate the virus transmission in the community."

Dr V Ramasubramanian of Apollo says, ideally, Indian summer and rising temperatures may not be conducive for the virus to spread but then adds an element of caution. "Going by the previous history with H1N1, which was also not expected to cause much damage in summer, regions in India have had to cope with its occurrences at regular intervals over the past few years even during peak summer months."

When it says 'simple disinfectants can kill the virus' I'm hoping that doesn't mean chlorine-based ones that would be highly unpleasant.

 

[elbows]

This would be a proper downer if it turns out to be true

Coronavirus: Fears of two-phase infection as recovered Japan patient tests positive

A woman working as a tour-bus guide in Japan has tested positive for the Covid-19 coronavirus for a second time, raising fears of a "bi-phasic" infection pattern similar to anthrax.

www.rnz.co.nz

Another case of more questions than answers!

 

[weltweit]

two sheds So, it could potentially be transmitted on goods shipped from China.

 

[two sheds]

Another good reason for not catching it early is that more research will hopefully sort out some of these questions. In the meantime we'll all have to just keep sneezing into our elbows .

 

[two sheds]

two sheds So, it could potentially be transmitted on goods shipped from China.

You might think so perhaps on the masks they're sending out :

Eta: Mind you most stuff gets sent out by sea doesn't it? Has taken a fair bit more than 9 days when I've ordered stuff not realizing it was coming from China. Otherwise tends to go to a holding area over here.

 

[prunus]

its hard to quantify - but economic damage could quite easily indirectly cause more deaths than the virus- (look at the effects of austerity in the UK - hundreds of thousands of deaths over the past 10 years).

Also - there are other potentially fatal diseases out there. 14,000 people died from flu in the uk last year - but infection control measures weren't thought remotely necessary. How is this worse? (again - genuine question)

Here is one possible answer:

It appears from data available so far that about 5% of cases become critical. About half of these died in China in intensive care. The other half survived.

Epidemiological models suggest that without strong containment measures 40% morbidity in the population is possibly conservative.

40% of UK population is ~25,000,000 people. 5% of that is 1,250,000 people needing intensive care to have a 50% chance of surviving.

The UK has about 6,000 intensive care beds.

It should be stressed that the above is just a scenario, and rests on a number of untested assumptions, but it fits the little we know so far.

I am concerned that the UK is not taking this a seriously as they should be - although perhaps they are, and they’re going to introduce the required lockdown slowly, for PR reasons - after all the scenario I outline above is easy for anyone to work out.

 

[elbows]

Following on from the highly perceptive question upthread:

How long can coronavirus survive on any surface?



When it says 'simple disinfectants can kill the virus' I'm hoping that doesn't mean chlorine-based ones that would be highly unpleasant.

I believe there are a whole range of disinfectants that should be effective.

I stumbled on the WHO myth-busters page when looking for something else about that, but even though I know you arent talking about the following, I cannot miss the opportunity to post it.

COVID-19 Mythbusters – World Health Organization

Highlighting some of the misinformation circulating on COVID-19

www.who.int

 

[two sheds]

Indeed, I'm still going with my original thesis that if you want to kill the virus after it's entered your body you have to drink the alcohol (60%+ proof).

 

[weltweit]

You might think so perhaps on the masks they're sending out :

Eta: Mind you most stuff gets sent out by sea doesn't it? Has taken a fair bit more than 9 days when I've ordered stuff not realizing it was coming from China. Otherwise tends to go to a holding area over here.

We have been receiving air freight from China. It only takes days.

 

[two sheds]

I presume they'll be testing things like that for the person in California who fell ill after no known contact with someone who'd travelled to the area?

And it did say the virus doesn't like humid conditions unless temperatures are low - so steam the little buggers?

 

[elbows]

I presume they'll be testing things like that for the person in California who fell ill after no known contact with someone who'd travelled to the area?

No, what generally happens when such cases pop up, is they are treated as a sign that previously undetected community spread is underway.

 

[two sheds]

Yes fair enough, makes more sense.

 

[sihhi]

two sheds So, it could potentially be transmitted on goods shipped from China.

Highly unlikely because the virus dies on "porous" surfaces like cardboard but survives best on smooth ones like enamel, metal and plastic.

No, You Won't Catch The New Coronavirus Via Packages Or Mail From China

Experts in infectious disease say viruses such as the novel coronavirus don't survive long on surfaces, and there's no evidence from similar outbreaks that anyone got infected by handling a package.

www.npr.org

 

[two sheds]

Highly unlikely because the virus dies on "porous" surfaces like cardboard but survives best on smooth ones like enamel, metal and plastic.

No, You Won't Catch The New Coronavirus Via Packages Or Mail From China

Experts in infectious disease say viruses such as the novel coronavirus don't survive long on surfaces, and there's no evidence from similar outbreaks that anyone got infected by handling a package.

www.npr.org

Interesting and somewhat reassuring: unlikely to survive outside or inside a cardboard box

McGraw says it is highly unlikely that the virus could survive for multiple days outside or inside a cardboard box, for example, that contains something an infected person had sneezed on or handled.

"What we know about these viruses is that they don't last very long on surfaces, and that's particularly the case for a very porous surface" such as cardboard, McGraw explains.

 

[elbows]

Yes fair enough, makes more sense.

I was blunt about it because its one of the key 'early warning' systems we have, and it may be important for people to understand why this is treated as such bad news. One which I would actually describe as a 'late warning' except it still tends to pop up earlier than our other methods for noticing community spread. It was a case like this in Glasgow that caused the Sottish government in 2009 to start talking about wider community spread of swine flu there, before the UK as a whole was ready to declare that picture.

Its a related subject to why the first cases being detected in Iran and Italy being severe cases or deaths was bad news with implications. These are sentinels, as is starting to detect imported cases from a country that has not noticed, or only just noticed, its own domestic outbreak (in recent times, Iran->Canada case was a sentinel warning event, one of a bunch for Iran at that time). When these things happen, it suggests there are a lot more cases out there, and thats where the big bad news is.

 

[two sheds]

I was blunt about it because its one of the key 'early warning' systems we have,

No is good - I'm speculating from very little information and don't want to be alarmist.

 

[elbows]

Sorry that I edited more stuff into that last post again, my bad habit.

Do have to be slightly careful with the 'single case with no known links to other cases/clusters/places' though, just in case its a story of poor contact tracing or a limited cluster, rather than genuinely broad community spread.

But now 'seek and you shall find' is unfortunately likely to be true more than had been hoped (foolishly) in recent weeks. Once one case is found like that, it usually leads to greater curiosity about looking for others, and a broadening of criteria for suspecting cases.

 

[elbows]

WHO Director-general spends a fair portion of his time warning against panic and fear. Then draws attention to this tweet that uses the word terrifying. But never mind, gotta tap into the millions of followers of the famous, even if their framing of events does not exactly adhere to WHO guidelines.