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elbows
Well-Known Member
I would expect anywhere that might attempt that to be doing it to deal with severe cases, not mild ones.
I cant say I have much sense throughout this so far that you are visualising all the mild cases in the most appropriate way. I do not seek to downplay severe and critical cases, but those do seem to drown out your thinking about all the milder ones that wont require any medical treatment.
The mild cases causing quarantine were the most disruptive in our modelling today.
The knock on impact of mass quarantining escalates quite quickly on a local footprint.
Our workforce is fully agile, i.e. Everyone has a laptop and can work at home, so from a resilience point of view if you aren't sick you can work remotely.
But if your job is any kind of public facing job, caring, teaching, nursing etc. You can't work remotely. Or if your employer isn't set up for this but you get sent home. You can't work.
And then if you are at home because other people can't work or go to school the workforce issues get serious. Quickly.
Not necessarily nationally but say across south London. Or a county etc
The knock on impact of mass quarantining escalates quite quickly on a local footprint.
Our workforce is fully agile, i.e. Everyone has a laptop and can work at home, so from a resilience point of view if you aren't sick you can work remotely.
But if your job is any kind of public facing job, caring, teaching, nursing etc. You can't work remotely. Or if your employer isn't set up for this but you get sent home. You can't work.
And then if you are at home because other people can't work or go to school the workforce issues get serious. Quickly.
Not necessarily nationally but say across south London. Or a county etc
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
On the topic of quarantine this is worth a read: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30460-8/fulltext
Coronavirus: Dow Jones records biggest points fall in history — Sky News
New York's Dow Jones has recorded its biggest one-day points fall in history as the coronavirus stock market sell-off gathered pace.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
The makeshift hospitals in Wuhan over 20 of them are far anyone suspected ie anyone with symptoms mild and severe.
I take your point and I would stress when someone has the disease you cannot know if you are just a mild case or a severe/critical case, and the shift from one to the other can be very quick.
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ska invita
back on the other side
Coronavirus: Dow Jones records biggest points fall in history — Sky News
New York's Dow Jones has recorded its biggest one-day points fall in history as the coronavirus stock market sell-off gathered pace.apple.news
whatever
Fez909
toilet expert
The usual disclaimers apply, but this thread could do with a dose of optimism:
www.newshub.co.nz
Coronavirus: Scientists stumble on potential vaccine by 'pure luck' | Newshub
"In a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus."
www.newshub.co.nz
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
.
The usual disclaimers apply, but this thread could do with a dose of optimism:
Coronavirus: Scientists stumble on potential vaccine by 'pure luck' | Newshub
"In a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus."
No, that’s great to hear
elbows
Well-Known Member
One of the reasons they were trying to find as much out about the clinical picture as possible was so we can try to identify which cases are more likely to become severe later. Both in terms of which existing conditions make people more susceptible to worse outcomes, other factors such as age, and whether there is anything they can determine from initial tests/measurements of various vital signs, levels of things.
They have some info on that front now but I doubt its close to enough to make accurate predictions. Not that they would be able to do all they would want with such info in the event of a large outbreak anyway, there will be inevitable priorities that wont involve cases that present themselves as mild.
Yes, in many cases a disease is mild in a patient until it isnt, timescales will vary, some deteriorations will be slow and others quick. But most mild cases still remain mild throughout their duration, with no intervention required.
If there are outbreaks which lead to many people being advised to try recovering at home, I expect there will be a bit more education on offer about specific signs to look for that indicate, for example, worsening pneumonia that is going past the point of requiring intervention. And services like 111 will be trying to pick up on such signs too, asking pertinent questions in that direction. But again I am assuming a certain level of functioning service, which wont necessarily be the case. If there is no available healthcare capacity then it makes less difference whether you pick up such deteriorating cases or not.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
Fun fact: the first coronavirus cases have no connection to that market.
Nurse! Bring me my tinfoil hat!
Nurse! Bring me my tinfoil hat!
elbows
Well-Known Member
Maybe you should post a link if you are going to say things like that.
Since I dont know what you read, I dont know what to comment on exactly so here are some more general thoughts.
It is always possible that an early cluster could be mistaken for the original source.
Some of the first cases documented in Chinese scientific reports did not have direct links to the market. But again these are first cases they found in healthcare, and who knows how they relate to the actual very first cases.
There is at least one study that uses genetic stuff to infer things about the history of the virus. Things can include timescale, and I believe this is the source of one suggestion that the outbreak started in November, not December. There may be another study that is more recent that makes an explicit suggestion that something they see in the genes suggests the market is not the source. I might have seen something like that in recent hours but I am currently overloaded and cannot check.
There arent so many things around that I would call facts at the moment. Possibilities, questions, assumptions with unknown lifespan. One paper doesnt necessarily deliver any new facts, but a good one will certainly be proven to eventually. Or at least it may depose previous assumptions that were posing as facts.
Yossarian
⏭️
According to the study described here, researchers think the virus circulated widely in the market, but the first infections probably happened elsewhere.
www.scmp.com
Coronavirus did not originate in Wuhan seafood market, scientists say
Analysis of genomic data from 93 samples of the novel coronavirus suggests it was imported from elsewhere.
www.scmp.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
According to the study described here, researchers think the virus circulated widely in the market, but the first infections probably happened elsewhere.
Coronavirus did not originate in Wuhan seafood market, scientists say
Analysis of genomic data from 93 samples of the novel coronavirus suggests it was imported from elsewhere.
Thanks, thats identified the one I said I thought I might have heard about earlier tonight. I think someone posted an image of a small part of it on twitter, and so I havent read the full thing yet. Will have a quick look now.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
This is where I got the info from:Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak – Insights from Leading Expert Prof Gabriel Leung | LSHTM
Watch if intereted.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yeah, but things would be better if Dr Jazzz was still here.
Combustible
Well-Known Member
I thought they said that 60% of critical cases in Hubei ended with fatality rather than nationally. Even if that's the national rate, the figures will be massively skewed by the numbers in Hubei, and it is very likely that the fatality rate nationally is quite a bit lower than Hubei, probably because when the health system is overwhelmed, critical cases will have much worse outcomes. For example Zhejiang province has had 1205 cases, 1 death and 11 patients classified as critical. 80% of patients in Zhejiang are reported as discharged. I can't find the numbers of critical patients discharged but even if all current 11 critical patients died that would be a 1% fatality rate, while the numbers in Hubei are already at 4% (with many more critical patients).
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks. I will try to find time to watch that soon.
I found what I had glimpsed earlier.
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
I wonder if people will know that it’s covid-19 which they are suffering mildly with, rather than any other flu bug. If public services collapse through a shortage of workers, it might become quite handy to know for sure that you’ve had it and recovered from it, to allow people to volunteer to take up some of the inevitability large number of “situations vacant” which will pop up to keep everything going. Even if immunity against reinfection only lasted a few months, better to be able to make use of those months in the certain knowledge you’re over the disease, than to sit at home too scared to go anywhere in case you didn’t yet catch it.
If there are two (or more) different strains in circulation, could that explain the reinfection of people who had previously recovered? Ie, instead of the virus being biphasic as suggested in the article Fez909 linked to in this post a couple of pages ago, maybe the reinfection is actually the other “cousin” strain of virus finding the same victim?
Treacle Toes
Time
Disaster capitalism, the Rees-Moggs et Al are for sure already making plans/money, it's what they do, it has been for a long time.
Attachments
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Looks like we’re now starting to discuss emergency plans at work. We are high risk, even with the slump in cases from China.
We should have done this long before tbh, I’d also like this to hold out until the end of next week because I’m on holiday so
We should have done this long before tbh, I’d also like this to hold out until the end of next week because I’m on holiday so
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
It's been gearing up a bit over here in the last few days.
Shinzo Abe says the schools will be closed until the end of March (including half-term holidays). Plenty of small bars and restaurants feeling the grip of the virus, customer numbers are dropping, lots of cancellations. Guy I spoke to the other day, said he hadn't experienced anything like this in the last 15 years. Oh, and the big Patrick's Day festival in Yoyogi is off, as well. It's a shame, as it's always good craic and the stallholders there are mostly small businesses and family run. But, better safe than sorry.
Shinzo Abe says the schools will be closed until the end of March (including half-term holidays). Plenty of small bars and restaurants feeling the grip of the virus, customer numbers are dropping, lots of cancellations. Guy I spoke to the other day, said he hadn't experienced anything like this in the last 15 years. Oh, and the big Patrick's Day festival in Yoyogi is off, as well. It's a shame, as it's always good craic and the stallholders there are mostly small businesses and family run. But, better safe than sorry.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Such messages are well intentioned but they can backfire. Especially when you are dealing with a mixed picture where it isnt just overreaction but also underreaction that causes problems. And especially in a situation where people might be asked at some point to do things that are very different to normal. 'Get a grip' belongs in a different age too, tune in next week for a guide to mental health during a pandemic that advises 'pull yourself together'.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm waiting till I see other experts in genetic stuff give their thoughts on the paper, and for now I am content for its suggestions to live in isolation from the rest of the picture, I wont try to build anything on top of it just now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm interested in that 'weakened' form of the virus a dog was reported as getting upthread. Chicken pox parties for dogs might be a way forward
I wont be surprised if that one ends up inconclusive and doesnt really go anywhere, or is deemed to be a thing but not very relevant to mitigation attempts.
