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[elbows]

As far as testing for the virus* goes, I thought it was the case that what they actual test for is antibodies produced as reaction to the virus, and that's why there is a period after someone has been infected when they still test negative.

Is that right, or am I mistaken?

*this virus, any virus

There are a bunch of different sorts of tests for this kind of thing, although in the case of this coronavirus, so far the tests tend to involve taking swabs and then finding signs of the actual virus itself, using a procedure that some people on this thread are likely familiar with via their job, unlike me who just has a base level of understanding with none of the detail. I could start going on about PCR arrays but will instantly be out of my depth!

What you are describing is used for widespread serological surveys, when you want to understand what proportion of the population have previously been infected with something. China just started these sorts of tests, apparently.

 

[sihhi]

Another citizen journalist has been detained

 

[elbows]

What you are describing is used for widespread serological surveys, when you want to understand what proportion of the population have previously been infected with something. China just started these sorts of tests, apparently.

I probably should have said that same sort of serology testing could also be used for purposes other than determining overall infection rates in population. I think we were talking on the thread a few days ago about a new test China has developed that can show a result in 15 mins and I think thats based on antibody response, for example. But it takes time to get these sorts of tests in place for a new illness, so I think most of the tests that have happened in the world so far have been the swab & PCR type. But thats an assumption.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

If we took official Chinese figures as accurate the death rate would currently be running at 3.4-3.5 percent of those reported as infected - which is a bit alarming....... I’m taking refuge in people upthread suggesting a lower reporting rate due to many with minor symptoms? On the other hand Iranian figures suggest 16 percent and South Korean 1percent or lower. Difference in healthcare systems? Population health? Recording and reporting?

 

[elbows]

If we took official Chinese figures as accurate the death rate would currently be running at 3.4-3.5 percent of those reported as infected - which is a bit alarming....... I’m taking refuge in people upthread suggesting a lower reporting rate due to many with minor symptoms? On the other hand Iranian figures suggest 16 percent and South Korean 1percent or lower. Difference in healthcare systems? Population health? Recording and reporting?

Problems detecting and reporting mild cases are likely a factor, but yeah, some of those other things could have an impact too. And not just differences in healthcare at normal times, but whether healthcare is overwhelmed in a location at some stage eg Wuhan. But timing of outbreaks is also responsible for differences in observed death rate, because deaths lag behind disease, so Wuhan is further along than these other places. And when talking about a country like Iran or Italy, outbreak was not discovered/reported until deaths began, further skewing picture in another direction.

I was expecting February to answer some questions and it certainly has. But the case and infection fatality rates were not one of them, I didnt expect them to be, its still a bit early for that. Its still fine to estimate a possible range, but until actual orders of magnitude of mild cases are clearer, I dont treat such numbers with all that much weight. Can say that its estimated to be in a range that is worth all this fuss and disruption, if estimated ranges regarding what proportion of people will get infected are also broadly right.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Some bollocks reports about a dog in hongers testing positive . Cannot be arsed to link

The poor dog - hope it's OK.

 

[Sue]

Came through Heathrow this afternoon and there was nothing I could see about this at all -- no announcements, posters or information about symptoms/what to do if you had concerns. Thought that was pretty surprising.

 

[brogdale]

Holy smoke!

The pontiff is slightly unwell

Maybe he's been holed up in the Coach & Horses?

 

[Ax^]

Surived the suffling sniffing hordes at tescos

was surprised to it still had food on its shelves

 

[Shechemite]

‘Resilience’ will be the watchword

 

[Shechemite]

The NHS will be saved. But it won’t be what we want it to be

 

[elbows]

I'm sure Pope Covid the 19th will be just fine.

Meanwhile in the UK, I see there is this story about a GP in Surrey being positive without travel history. Implying local transmission. It will be contact tracing and testing those contacts that determines whether this gets chalked up as a cluster they get a handle on, or something that remains a vaguer but even more alarming first indicator of wider community spread. Wider community spread being the sort of thing that lead to 'new phase' talk in other countries. Whatever it gets chalked up at it amounts to broadly the same thing anyway, and certainly a thing that is expected here and everywhere.

UK's 20th coronavirus case is first to catch illness in Britain

Man from Surrey is now in isolation unit at Guy’s and St Thomas’ hospital in London

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

By the way much of that was my interpretation - the Guardian go on about various fears in connection with that case, but I dont think they explicitly point out the angle I was drawing attention to, which is an angle I've gone on about lots before now, so that it would make more sense if/when that moment arrived in the UK. Not that there has been any 'if' about it for me lately, most things became a question of when for me, around the time we started talking about whether the word pandemic was appropriate.

 

[brogdale]

I'm sure Pope Covid the 19th will be just fine.

Meanwhile in the UK, I see there is this story about a GP in Surrey being positive without travel history. Implying local transmission. It will be contact tracing and testing those contacts that determines whether this gets chalked up as a cluster they get a handle on, or something that remains a vaguer but even more alarming first indicator of wider community spread. Wider community spread being the sort of thing that lead to 'new phase' talk in other countries. Whatever it gets chalked up at it amounts to broadly the same thing anyway, and certainly a thing that is expected here and everywhere.

UK's 20th coronavirus case is first to catch illness in Britain

Man from Surrey is now in isolation unit at Guy’s and St Thomas’ hospital in London

www.theguardian.com

reckon by next week, all this clusters malarky, will look quite cute

 

[Supine]

The FDA are reporting the first drug for humans that is affected by covid. At the moment they are not specifying which one it is. Some analysis shows drug shortages will start in Q2 and get worse in Q3. The good news is that only 20 licensed drugs are single sourced from China with the vast majority having manufacturing capability elsewhere.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Supply Chain Update

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Supply Chain Update

www.fda.gov

 

[elbows]

reckon by next week, all this clusters malarky, will look quite cute

I dont know how long there will be an overlap where both pictures (specific clusters with identified people, outbreaks in locations) are still covered, as opposed to stories moving on to just the location based outbreaks and human interest individual tales of woe, serious cases, deaths. eg press have gone on in recent weeks about how UK plans for testing etc change once they get past 100 confirmed cases. This is consistent with the previous pandemic where their plans called for clinical analysis of first 100 cases to be a big chunk of what informed their approach to the next phase.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Little bit of politics there, ladies and gents

 

[elbows]

I'm glad I havent had time to get into all that shit. So many layers of that sorts of politics in the USA right now, a bunch of which are the last thing pandemic planners would want at this time.

Clear failings in regards US ability to deliver reliable test kits to a bunch of facilities across the nation in recent weeks too, they are badly behind due to problems with many of the kits. And the whistleblower implying the California quarantine was crappy.

 

[pesh]

Little bit of politics there, ladies and gents

you know this is going to age well

 

[ska invita]

you know this is going to age well

Like a fine petri dish

 

[sheothebudworths]

Thanks, though I never really know what to say to stuff like that. And I've not been trying to cover everything, eg I havent given running totals for countries. I'm mostly trying to pick the significant events/indicators. And my sources arent all that broad really, and lots of the unknowns might stay that way for ages. So there might be a lot of repetition here if the same themes keep coming up, especially if new people start joining in as the coronavirus starts to show up more on their radar.

Fwiw, I have really appreciated your posts and the obvious research you've undertaken elbows

 

[prunus]

Fwiw, I have really appreciated your posts and the obvious research you've undertaken elbows

Seconded.

 

[weltweit]

I have to feel a little sorry for the individuals and companies that have been working to finalise their exhibits at the Geneva Auto Show only to have it cancelled at the last minute.

Some of those companies spend a lot on their trade stands. I wonder if any of them have suitable insurance to recoup the costs? (mind you if they didn't this time they will be looking for such cover next time for sure!)

 

[killer b]

Those poor automotive companies. Such a shame for them.

 

[existentialist]

Trumps comment that he has the situation under control.

Slow down and try to digest replies rather than looking for your zinger moment.

Ahahahahaha, because that's absolutely NOT what you're doing with your "I predicted this ages ago" bullshit!

 

[weltweit]

Those poor automotive companies. Such a shame for them.

Seriously, there will be some individuals and contractors who will have worked months on this show, an effort that was about to bear fruit with the opening of the show. I know how much work goes into it because I did that sort of thing a couple of times years ago.

 

[killer b]

oh well.

 

[weltweit]

oh well.

Never mind

 

[Marty1]

Ahahahahaha, because that's absolutely NOT what you're doing with your "I predicted this ages ago" bullshit!

Ive done no such thing - however - and I’m not blowing my own trumpet - I did accurately predict this virus would be politicised against Trump before it transpired (just for the record).

 

[existentialist]

Ive done no such thing - however - and I’m not blowing my own trumpet - I did accurately predict this virus would be politicised against Trump before it transpired (just for the record).

Enjoy your zinger moment.