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[elbows]

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/getting-workplace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf

By the way anyone that has ever quite rationally started wondering about surfaces as a transmission vector, and has been dissatisfied with the lack of emphasis on such things in advice they have been given, stands a good chance of feeling vindicated if they take a quick look at that guide.

 

[elbows]

A little more on the dodgy US political situation in regards this outbreak.

I expect this sort of erosion of faith in various aspects of the state is the sort of thing some planners have nightmares about when considered in the context of a major disease outbreak.

 

[Part-timah]

I think if no travel ban, quarantin e must be instituted the incubation-infective period is too long to leave to chance with a shrug of the shoulders.
Goods can travel but people, in general, should not.

I know it seems logical but these scenarios have been gamed and modelled.

 

[two sheds]

A little more on the dodgy US political situation in regards this outbreak.

I expect this sort of erosion of faith in various aspects of the state is the sort of thing some planners have nightmares about when considered in the context of a major disease outbreak.

“Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.” —Hannah Arendt, “The Origins of Totalitarianism”

Interesting quote - definitely happening in the US and also starting now in the UK with Johnson & Cummings.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Interesting quote - definitely happening in the US and also starting now in the UK with Johnson & Cummings.

Yup. The resignation of the vaguely competent Javid in favour of some nobody was a key moment in this process. For the same reason I see no prospect of halfwits like Raab and Patel being removed from their posts any time soon. For this reason drawing attention to their failures may be the wrong tactic, just as it was with attempts to stop Johnson himself. It's all a feature, not a bug as far as organ grinder Cummings is concerned.

 

[elbows]

I'm quoting this for posterity.

Analysis: The challenge of playing down panic
Philippa Roxby
Health reporter, BBC News

The focus of the coronavirus outbreak is shifting – from China to the rest of the world, particularly Europe, where a number of countries are starting to see multiple cases.

On the face of it, this seems like bad news. More people are being affected in more countries and clusters of deaths in Iran, South Korea and northern Italy are concerning.

But there are positives too. China appears to be getting on top of the virus with the number of new cases each day reducing.

This suggests that efforts to contain the virus by telling people to stay at home, stopping large public gatherings and preventing travel are working.

The message from officials at the World Health Organization is that containment is still possible and a global pandemic is not inevitable.

This view has been echoed in the UK where the government has warned of the social and economic costs of overreacting in response to the outbreak.

Keeping the public safe is the priority – but so is acting in a balanced and responsible way.

However, with several sporting events being cancelled and postponed across Europe, playing down the panic is a challenge.

From BBC live update page at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51628990

 

[sihhi]

I'm quoting this for posterity.

From BBC live update page at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51628990

Grim.

I know it seems logical but these scenarios have been gamed and modelled.

They've been modelled on less infectious viruses not ones like this.

Every infectee can infect very many even taking an average not a long (14 day or more) incubation period of 7 days - a lot of time to go shopping, work and socialise and infect others.

 

[weltweit]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health

Reports that Samsung donates £14.6m, to help fight the coronavirus outbreak. The South Korean company is the latest to pledge money to help with the outbreak. Big US firms including Microsoft, Dell and Cargill have already donated, along with Chinese giant Alibaba.

 

[sihhi]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health

Reports that Samsung donates £14.6m, to help fight the coronavirus outbreak. The South Korean company is the latest to pledge money to help with the outbreak. Big US firms including Microsoft, Dell and Cargill have already donated, along with Chinese giant Alibaba.

Peanuts.

This is from 2010, can anyone explain the current state of play in Britain? How many intensive care beds are there?

Critical care experts say there may be as few as 3.5 intensive care beds per 100,000 people in the UK, compared with more than 24 per 100,000 in Germany.

 

[weltweit]

..
Critical care experts say there may be as few as 3.5 intensive care beds per 100,000 people in the UK, compared with more than 24 per 100,000 in Germany.

I don't know the current state of play but I did see (perhaps on here) that the question was asked about a Chinese hospital, how many ventilators do you have to which the answer was 60 …. wonder how many we have on average here?

 

[spring-peeper]

Pages ago, I posted about the folks in Cornwall, Ontario. Cornwall is about 35 minutes from here. The residents were upset that the people of the cruise ship would be quarantined near their town for two weeks.

Well, medical professionals told them that precautions taken will ensure the town is safe.

The building that they are housed in is in a separate wing of the convention center. The people delivering food are NOT the regular staff, and there is absolutely no contact between the staff and those confined.

Not good enough!!!

Some parents are pulling their children out of schools and daycares. The children of the workers at Nav-Canada are in the schools and daycares. When questioned about pulling their children, the response is usually along the lines of, "What!!! Do you think I want my child to die??? I shall keep them home and safe."

Slight over reaction, imo.


On the bright side, I skimmed an article about telling people to start stocking up with non-perishables.
I thought that was a cute suggestion. It is winter, and we are supposed to stock up in case of a mega snow storm.
I stocked up today, we are supposed to get 40-50 cm of snow.

 

[Raheem]

I don't know the current state of play but I did see (perhaps on here) that the question was asked about a Chinese hospital, how many ventilators do you have to which the answer was 60 …. wonder how many we have on average here?

Bet an urban hospital in China services a much larger population than a typical NHS hospital, though.

 

[elbows]

!!!!

 

[2hats]

!!!!

I'll see that and raise you:


Fortunately later on on Newsnight there are some more measured voices after that headline grabbing opener.

 

[elbows]

Trump found a way to brag about the USA being the best prepared country, and appointed Pence to lead a cross-governmental team.

 

[William of Walworth]

There's no way I can attempt seventy pages of thread , but can I ask how much thread-comment has there been about (UK) paranoia and mega-media hype? I'm asusming some ...

Dare I confess that my own, and deb's, panic-levels here on South Wales are utterly minimal?

I should also emphasise though, that I sympathise lots, and genuinely, with anyone who's really needing to be concerned about their own corona-health and/or that of their loved ones ...

 

[Raheem]

There's no way I can attempt seventy pages of thread , but can I ask how much thread-comment has there been about (UK) paranoia and mega-media hype? I'm asusming some ...

Dare I confess that my own, and deb's, panic-levels here on South Wales are utterly minimal?

I should also emphasise though, that I sympathise lots, and genuinely, with anyone who's really needing to be concerned about their own corona-health and/or that of their loved ones ...

I don't think there's that much hysteria at large, but I also think we're at a point where everyone has been thinking 'we've been here before' and now it's starting to look like somewhere we haven't been.

Not sure the realisation that the problem may actually be spreading into the first world can be counted as hysteria, though.

 

[William of Walworth]

Cheers for that .... I'll try to get up to speed with this thread when I've time

(or at least with the last five or ten pages or so! )

 

[Part-timah]

Apologies for the Daily Star but: Man collapses coughing in Canary Wharf as London on coronavirus alert

 

[Marty1]

I think if no travel ban, quarantin e must be instituted the incubation-infective period is too long to leave to chance with a shrug of the shoulders.
Goods can travel but people, in general, should not.

I agree.

 

[Marty1]

I know it seems logical but these scenarios have been gamed and modelled.

You given yourself enough time to cobble a coherent answer together other than some headline you’ve skimmed over yet?

 

[elbows]

Another BBC piece where it is no surprise to see which bit I am zooming in on.

Coronavirus: What next in the UK coronavirus fight?

The UK's plan to tackle coronavirus has been changing. What's the latest and what's happening next?

www.bbc.co.uk

Could schools be closed and freedoms curtailed?
Under the Civil Contingencies Act, the government can close schools, shut down public transport and stop mass gatherings to protect the public.

But all the evidence suggests those measures are not particularly effective at stopping the spread of something like coronavirus.

What is more, there has to be a balance between public safety and economic and social impacts.

Closing schools, for example, could disrupt exams and force parents to take time off work.

It is why both ministers and health officials keep stressing schools do not have to close - those that have done are down to head teachers.

All the evidence eh? Despite what the WHO were just trying to suggest Chinas draconian actions may have done?

 

[Part-timah]

You given yourself enough time to cobble a coherent answer together other than some headline you’ve skimmed over yet?

Why do you think you’re wiser and more experienced in infectious disease control than infectious disease authorities?

 

[elbows]

The Moderna product is completely new so will start with Phase 1 clinical trials on a small number of healthy people. It would then progress to phases that involve ill people.

Watching one of the other people speaking at Trumps press conference, I got the impression they had previous misspoken about the timescale for this vaccine and were correcting themselves today.

A year to 18 months was the correction. I havent gone looking for the original misleading statement, Im assuming they were bragging about how quickly things got to this stage with that vaccine, and how long the next phase will take, and left the wrong overall impression.

 

[elbows]

 

[spring-peeper]

and so it begins.....

 

[elbows]

All the evidence eh? Despite what the WHO were just trying to suggest Chinas draconian actions may have done?

I should really make clear that I'm only pointing out obvious contradictions. I still dont really have any way to know which of these very different pictures is going to turn out to be the most accurate, which kind of response will be the most sensible.

I suppose the main reason I tend to revert to sneering at the 'dont do very much' strategy is that even when full containment is completely futile, really strong mitigation might make the difference between flattening and stretching out the epidemic curve in order to reduce burden on healthcare services, and having a sharp wave with a burden that is way too hefty.

But its especially hard to make judgements on this without knowing the true magnitude of undetected infections in key countries to date. That stuff can still make between one and several orders of magnitudes difference in fatality rate and proportion of severe cases. And that in turn changes the balance between economic & societal disruption and doing enough to fight the outbreak.

 

[elbows]

Here is an example of how one expert sees that dilemma.



I included it as an image because its a pain in the arse collating those tweets right now, but here is the first tweet in proper twitter form for anyone that wants to read it that way:

 

[Marty1]

Why do you think you’re wiser and more experienced in infectious disease control than infectious disease authorities?

I don’t, I’m referring to the same question I asked you yesterday which you seemed to go out of your way at avoid.

But I’ll leave it there as I think you didn’t have a clue what you were talking about then other than parroting a headline or now when you’ve read up a little.

 

[two sheds]

Thanks to the tories for this Independent headline:

UK hospitals to deny care to weakest if pandemic hits

Panels of ‘wise men’ set to decide who gets lifesaving treatment against coronavirus

Weakest patients could be denied lifesaving coronavirus care due to lack of NHS funding, doctors admit

Exclusive: Senior doctors criticise government's 'dishonest spin' over ability of NHS to cope with a severe pandemic outbreak

www.independent.co.uk