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[littlebabyjesus]

Yes, but hospitalisations tend to come around 2 weeks after testing positive, and deaths around 4 to 6+ weeks later.

I am sure there'll be an element of more targeted testing picking-up on more minor cases, and I hope that accounts for a high percentage of them, but too early to tell ATM.

Fair enough. So updating that, a new set of 18 deaths were reported on 27 July following many days of no reports (the deaths no doubt spread over that time). In the last few weeks, there have been more than 20,000 new cases, and looking at the graphs on this link, at an equivalent time at the start of the pandemic wrt captured cases, by the point of reaching 20,000 new cases - basically the end of March - there were already hundreds of deaths per day. They do appear to have got this fresh spike under control now, and with only a few serious cases.

These new spikes do all appear to be following similar patterns - linear rather than exponential growth, and under control relatively swiftly, and with only minimal effect when measured in terms of deaths (of course, some people may also be severely ill but not dying). Of course, it matters hugely the demographic of who is catching it, and the most vulnerable weren't the first to catch it first time around either.

Without the new testing regimes, none of this in Catalunya would even have been noticed yet, but with the new regimes, it's already being brought under control. One or two thousand new cases per day can mean something radically different now from what those kinds of figures meant at the start.

 

[frogwoman]

I also think that as hospitals have got better at treating covid the death rate has reduced tbh .

 

[zahir]

I also think that as hospitals have got better at treating covid the death rate has reduced tbh .

I wonder if it’s more to do with hospitals and care homes getting basic infection controls in place and fewer vulnerable people being exposed to it.

 

[Supine]

I've seen graphs showing ever improving hospital results as the profession has learnt how to deal with patients. Can't remember where but well done NHS.

 

[elbows]

August is shaping up to be a bit like February for me in the sense that it could be a month where we learn enough to end up with a better sense of what will happen after that month is done. February was all about international spread, this time its more about the resurgence potential.

I think it was important for authorities around the northern hemisphere to see how much wiggle room to relax things they really had in the first pandemic summer. The absolute best-case scenario already looks to have been a poor fit for reality, so now there are nervous authorities all over the place. Its a mix of immediate concerns, concerns for what it means for later in the year, and concerning messages that are made quite deliberately to try to get the public to take the threat seriously as an ongoing thing.

Belgium and Germany are some of the other countries in Europe that are either changing their rules in response, or are warning that they will have to soon if things dont improve.

On a couple of occasions in the past I described lockdown as an emergency handbrake, as something that needed to be done when we were too slow and didnt do all the other things in an effective way. Unfortunately this does not mean that I think it unlikely we will ever need that last resort again. Partly because its a numbers game and the decent testing & contract-tracing approach cannot scale up to the number of cases that could happen in a large wave, it has to be utilised before then to keep the numbers below a certain threshold, otherwise we'll have to resort to the cruder measures again.

There should have been some improvements to treatment and survival rates but I dont know quite how significant they are, I will wait till we have experienced a winter before attempting to properly judge this.

 

[springy]

Do you think there will be second lockdown in some countries? The economies can’t handle a second lockdown, but cases are raising all over the world and in my opinion people don’t follow anymore the rules that the governments have implemented…and moreover: What will happen during winter?? I can imagine that the situation will get worse before it gets better – as Trump said ;-) America has already lost its “war” against Covid…each day there are +60.000 and more officially cases – who knows how many people are really infected…but I also think that third world countries/emerging countries such as India and Brazil will be even more affected by the virus than the States if a vaccination won’t be found soon. When would you say will the situation get better around the world? I’m afraid that this now is just the beginning…

 

[elbows]

I dont do those sorts of predictions unless I think something is pretty much inevitable. And the term lockdown is very broad. So at the moment I would only go so far as to say that it would be unwise to rule out the possibility of second lockdowns anywhere.

 

[elbows]

I wonder if it’s more to do with hospitals and care homes getting basic infection controls in place and fewer vulnerable people being exposed to it.

I found this chart from Germany to be quite a good indicator of change to the age groups most affected:

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-07-28-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

 

[springy]

true, but isn’t there a “light” lockdown/ curfew somewhere happening? I don’t remember anymore where exactly …in Belgium? Denmark? … like people are not allowed to go on the streets at night…can someone tell me why? Are people accepting the rules less during night than during day? This is kind of weird to me…

 

[frogwoman]

.

 

[elbows]

true, but isn’t there a “light” lockdown/ curfew somewhere happening? I don’t remember anymore where exactly …in Belgium? Denmark? … like people are not allowed to go on the streets at night…can someone tell me why? Are people accepting the rules less during night than during day? This is kind of weird to me…

Antwerp in Belgium. 11PM. Maybe not enforced yet as I dont think they've got all the legislation in place. Probably an attempt to avoid completely shutting bars etc, whilst still somewhat mitigating against late night drunken virus spread. I dont have all the epidemiological data that may have formed the basis of their decision.

 

[gaijingirl]

true, but isn’t there a “light” lockdown/ curfew somewhere happening? I don’t remember anymore where exactly …in Belgium? Denmark? … like people are not allowed to go on the streets at night…can someone tell me why? Are people accepting the rules less during night than during day? This is kind of weird to me…

Also Quiberon in Brittany.

 

[elbows]

 

[frogwoman]

My work colleague in Bulgaria was saying something about the stats showing an increase being faked and that hospitals were given £500 per covid patient so had a reason to inflate the number. I'd almost certainly regard this as a conspiracy theory tbh but I have no idea what is going on there given high levels of corruption in the country, but it seems unlikely

 

[Teaboy]

My work colleague in Bulgaria was saying something about the stats showing an increase being faked and that hospitals were given £500 per covid patient so had a reason to inflate the number. I'd almost certainly regard this as a conspiracy theory tbh but I have no idea what is going on there given high levels of corruption in the country, but it seems unlikely

There is no benefit to any government in the world to artificially inflate their numbers, quite the opposite in fact. Its just more total and utter bollocks from people who are unable to come to terms with a new reality.

 

[frogwoman]

There is no benefit to any government in the world to artificially inflate their numbers, quite the opposite in fact. Its just more total and utter bollocks from people who are unable to come to terms with a new reality.

That's what I thought. Has there been a documented case of a hospital doing this anywhere in the world?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I also think that as hospitals have got better at treating covid the death rate has reduced tbh .

There is that as well, but in the case of Catalunya, there have been very few new hospital admissions during this recent spike. The new cases have mostly been discovered by community testing of various kinds rather than testing of sick people turning up at casualty, which is how new cases were mostly discovered at the start. It's the same story here, with a large majority of new cases now coming from Pillar 2 (routine testing, test and trace, mail-out tests, etc) rather than Pillar 1 (NHS testing in hospitals). Pillar 1 totally missed the Leicester hotspot.

 

[Teaboy]

That's what I thought. Has there been a documented case of a hospital doing this anywhere in the world?

I suppose if you really wanted to stretch it you could make an argument that some hospitals might want to inflate the figure if they feel they are not getting enough support from government. This would only be out of desperation though and who would the £500 come from?

Its bollocks basically.

 

[frogwoman]

I suppose if you really wanted to stretch it you could make an argument that some hospitals might want to inflate the figure if they feel they are not getting enough support from government. This would only be out of desperation though and who would the £500 come from?

Its bollocks basically.

Yeah I know. I work with her and was clinging onto a vague hope that she's not a total fuckwit

 

[elbows]

There is that as well, but in the case of Catalunya, there have been very few new hospital admissions during this recent spike. The new cases have mostly been discovered by community testing of various kinds rather than testing of sick people turning up at casualty, which is how new cases were mostly discovered at the start. It's the same story here, with a large majority of new cases now coming from Pillar 2 (routine testing, test and trace, mail-out tests, etc) rather than Pillar 1 (NHS testing in hospitals). Pillar 1 totally missed the Leicester hotspot.

Yes I would not expect that the current low numbers of deaths have very much to do with improved treatment, at least not not compared to the other issues of scale with the current picture compared to the initial peak.

The figures for number of cases we get these days are quite hard to compare to the past, because the past involved such a low percentage of cases being tested at all. They give us a picture that was missing the first time, and the opportunity to avoid letting things spiral. Which does involve the challenge of getting enough people to take it seriously enough when data showing an increasing number of cases is not accompanied by scary numbers of deaths.

 

[elbows]

Which is another reason I should try to pay attention to Germany, because their figures are somewhat more comparable with their past ones. Because they did better with testing the first time around, and for example spotted plenty of holiday-related infections in younger people the first time round. I shouldnt overstate this though, there have still been limits to their system in the past and I would assume their testing capacity and protocols have been improved further since the first peak.

 

[frogwoman]

Is the low number of deaths anything to do with people seeking treatment earlier?

 

[elbows]

Honestly I think its mostly because there are vastly less people catching it at the moment, and far less hospital and care home outbreaks.

My local hospital is one of the only graphs I've seen for months that actually has a more recent death spike, and that was mostly a story of a hospital outbreak where the people involved were quite vulnerable to death because they were already ill.

 

[elbows]

I suppose if I'm going to say that I should have posted the graph, even though this isnt the best thread for it, it came up in conversation so...



The hospital outbreak which was spotted and dealt with in June created a death situation that was quite comparable with the initial peak wave of death, although shorter. And since they got a handle on it deaths have fallen to a level not managed previously. However since I was always anticipating that hospital infections would be responsible for a big chunk of the deaths in this pandemic, I expect I am biased towards thinking things are all signs of this side of the story.

 

[Dogsauce]

Is the low number of deaths anything to do with people seeking treatment earlier?

it may be down to who is getting it, and also that the virus may have worked through a lot of the vulnerable population, at least in the UK with the care home fuckup.

 

[zahir]

Is the low number of deaths anything to do with people seeking treatment earlier?

I’d be sceptical about this. I think most people who seek treatment will be doing so after things take a bad turn ten days to two weeks into the illness. Is anyone getting any treatment to speak of in advance of this? Unless there’s some more proactive treatment going on outside the UK.

 

[Supine]

Younger people are getting infected so recover better. It's the older people they are in contact with who should worry most.

 

[CNT36]

Is the low number of deaths anything to do with people seeking treatment earlier?

I think what you mentioned above is significant. Better treatment, understanding and care than very early on. Proning, better use of ventilators and some effective medications for example.

 

[CNT36]

Younger people are getting infected so recover better. It's the older people they are in contact with who should worry most.

Quite likely but worth mentioning there have been some concerns about lungs being damaged in young and even asymptomatic cases for long periods after the virus is cleared.

 

[frogwoman]

I hope not I'm mostly fine and my symptoms were pretty mild but I don't feel like my lungs are 100% back to normal tbh. Pretty anxious about flu season if I'm honest.