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I was just reading that Peru was investigating around 27 thousand deaths that they suspected were due to covid but had been missed as the people weren't given a test. If confirmed this would mean that they had around 46 thousand deaths due to covid or 0.14% of the population:(
Sounds grim. Do you know how good the Peruvian health service is frogwoman?
 
Sounds grim. Do you know how good the Peruvian health service is frogwoman?

I think they are really struggling due to the pandemic:(

 
Here in Melbourne we were 3.5 weeks into a 6 week lockdown, but it's just been tightened and extended by another 6 weeks. New rules include only one member of your household allowed out shopping for supplies once a day, and only exercising within 5km radius of your home, with new restrictions on workplaces to be announced tomorrow. At the moment a lot of non-essential shops are open so I guess they'll shut them down alongside limiting output in meat factories and other high risk areas.

We're averaging about 600 cases/day at the moment in a city of 5 million. How does that compare to say, London's case rate at the peak of the first lockdown in the UK?
 
Looks like Germany is starting to out do the US in madness, look at the thousands on this protest! :facepalm:



Yeah, the anti-mask/lockdown etc. thing has taken off in Germany much more than anywhere else in Europe. They can be quite funny about health stuff in Germany, be interested to her people's thoughts on why the anti-mask/lockdown stuff has so much more traction there than anywhere else in Europe.
 
Here in Melbourne we were 3.5 weeks into a 6 week lockdown, but it's just been tightened and extended by another 6 weeks. New rules include only one member of your household allowed out shopping for supplies once a day, and only exercising within 5km radius of your home, with new restrictions on workplaces to be announced tomorrow. At the moment a lot of non-essential shops are open so I guess they'll shut them down alongside limiting output in meat factories and other high risk areas.

We're averaging about 600 cases/day at the moment in a city of 5 million. How does that compare to say, London's case rate at the peak of the first lockdown in the UK?

Here's the new cases for London, always lower numbers reported for the weekend, followed by high numbers as they catch-up on the lag, so an average of 750 a day at the peak, out of a population of about 9 million.

But, there wasn't much testing back then, so the real numbers would be much higher.

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Yeah, the anti-mask/lockdown etc. thing has taken off in Germany much more than anywhere else in Europe. They can be quite funny about health stuff in Germany, be interested to her people's thoughts on why the anti-mask/lockdown stuff has so much more traction there than anywhere else in Europe.

Some of it is probably down to their low death rate, 110 per million, compared to over 7 times that in other European counties, making them feeling safer.
 

:eek: this article is batshit crazy.

As German officials warn of soaring infection numbers, the protesters remain defiant. "The virus of freedom has reached Berlin," said one of the organizers, Michael Ballweg.

Others chanted: "We are the second wave," as they moved through the German capital.
 
Some of it is probably down to their low death rate, 110 per million, compared to over 7 times that in other European counties, making them feeling safer.

Wonder what the age demographic breakdown of Germany is too, are these demos more youth driven?
 
Here's the new cases for London, always lower numbers reported for the weekend, followed by high numbers as they catch-up on the lag, so an average of 750 a day at the peak, out of a population of about 9 million.

But, there wasn't much testing back then, so the real numbers would be much higher.

View attachment 224711

Thanks for that. We're doing a pretty good job of testing here, around 70k a day across the state of Victoria, so hopefully our numbers are more accurate, but adjusted for population they're still pretty high. One of the reasons given for tightening our lockdown is the number of "community transmission" cases where they can't trace it back to a particular person or location, indicating that there are undiscovered cases going around.

Interestingly they do genomic sequencing of tests here so they can keep an eye on the strain. The COVID going round now is different to that which was going around in March/April/May, so they're saying that we got rid of local transmission in June only to get it reintroduced by returning travellers in hotel quarantine. There's a lot of concern over the mishandling of quarantine - hiring untrained and incompetent security, rumours of relations between security and guests - which is currently the subject of an enquiry. We had some days with 0 cases in June only for some frisky security guards to ruin it for everyone :mad:
 

:eek: this article is batshit crazy.

As German officials warn of soaring infection numbers, the protesters remain defiant. "The virus of freedom has reached Berlin," said one of the organizers, Michael Ballweg.

Others chanted: "We are the second wave," as they moved through the German capital.

FFS, looks like the lunacy of the end of days.
 

:eek: this article is batshit crazy.

As German officials warn of soaring infection numbers, the protesters remain defiant. "The virus of freedom has reached Berlin," said one of the organizers, Michael Ballweg.

Others chanted: "We are the second wave," as they moved through the German capital.
I read that name as michael ballbag at first, had to do a double take. Would be a much more fitting name to be fair.
 
Interestingly they do genomic sequencing of tests here so they can keep an eye on the strain. The COVID going round now is different to that which was going around in March/April/May, so they're saying that we got rid of local transmission in June only to get it reintroduced by returning travellers in hotel quarantine. There's a lot of concern over the mishandling of quarantine - hiring untrained and incompetent security, rumours of relations between security and guests - which is currently the subject of an enquiry. We had some days with 0 cases in June only for some frisky security guards to ruin it for everyone :mad:

Yes thats been done in many places and whilst we usually dont understand what the implications of most of the changes mean (often not much), this stuff can still be used in the way you mention, to track the nature of the spread globally over time. For example its been used in the past to apparently confirm that the UKs big outbreak was largely seeded by half-term holidays to a couple of affected regions in europe.

The security guards are probably a partial scapegoat in that they might be part of the largest detected resurgence, but there may well have been other holes in the system that would have lead to the current situation or a similar situation anyway. Maybe they deserve the amount of focus they got, maybe not, its very hard for me to judge, we can see whats been spotted and detailed but not the stuff that hasnt. Its like the zero cases period, the chances are there were still some cases in that period, just not enough to detect via routine testing systems of the time.
 
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As far as I'm aware Australia has done most thing's right and stayed away from Trumpian nonsense. So this is pretty disconcerting as they keep saying this is a marathon, not a sprint. :(


Yes I'm afraid its always been the case that doing all the right things for a while is not enough, you have to keep doing them all the way along, or at least keep such a close eye on things that you are ready to reimplement things strongly at short notice.

Which is why I was always nervous about describing some of the early success story countries as if they had permanently dodged the bullet. There arent too many early success stories left unaffected now, although there are a few, including New Zealand I guess but they had a scale advantage and clearly thought they were in a position to restrict and police international travel in a way many countries didnt.

Plus its winter in Australia.
 
Looks like Germany is starting to out do the US in madness, look at the thousands on this protest! :facepalm:

I always though that Berliners were too sensible to copy US fuckwittery but this is depressing as fuck

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Not a mask in sight

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" Thousands march along the 'Friedrichstrasse' during the demonstration against corona measures in Berlin, Germany, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2020. The initiative "Querdenken 711" has called for this. The motto of the demonstration is "The end of the pandemic - Freedom Day". (Christoph Soeder/dpa via AP) "
 
I always though that Berliners were too sensible to copy US fuckwittery but this is depressing as fuck

View attachment 224740

View attachment 224741

Not a mask in sight

View attachment 224742

" Thousands march along the 'Friedrichstrasse' during the demonstration against corona measures in Berlin, Germany, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2020. The initiative "Querdenken 711" has called for this. The motto of the demonstration is "The end of the pandemic - Freedom Day". (Christoph Soeder/dpa via AP) "

It should be said that these aren't mainly Berliner's, they came from all over Germany for this.

Still, an embarrassment equal of any Trump-addled Covid-19 deniers. I saw interviews with participants on tv and it's always the same crap. "The virus doesn't exist because "I can't see it/don't know anybody who has got it." The reason that Germany so far has gotten through this better than most countries by acting reasonably fast and sensibly, is the stick to beat it with. While this is a huge march, these twats are a minority. I still don't see why we had all our outdoor festies, for some of which security concepts could have been worked out, cancelled to allow for thousands of people to congregate who are intent on spreading the virus.
 
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As far as I'm aware Australia has done most thing's right and stayed away from Trumpian nonsense. So this is pretty disconcerting as they keep saying this is a marathon, not a sprint. :(


I think on paper Australia did 'most things right' -- there are some details lacking though. Back in mid-March, when under some popular pressure (seeing what was happening around the world, there was a genuine desire to 'do something') a rather limited lockdown was entered. The onus was very much on individual behaviour, and for the most part there was a high degree of compliance with this; yet industry and business, with the exception of hospitality, leisure and tourism, had relatively few restrictions placed on operations. Retail shops got to define whether they were essential or not, even if individuals could only leave the house for 'essential shopping'; the Aussie equivalent of B&Q? Never shut. Hairdressers and barbers? Remained open throughout. Construction? Unions and construction firms joined forces to argue for twenty-four hour worksites.

So yes, Australia entered a lockdown relatively early on, and was largely free of idiots and conspiracy theorists, but on the other hand that lockdown was never really that strict. The other key thing to remember is that when Australia entered this lockdown, there weren't really many cases of coronavirus here at all. The vast, vast majority came from people returning to the country who were then put in hotel quarantine. This means, again on paper, the conditions were always ripe for 'crushing the curve', as one government minister put it.

Now what happened in Victoria - as alluded to above - was the management contracts for the hotel quarantine scheme (really, the essential piece in this puzzle, since that's where most cases were) was handed to the equivalent of say, G4S. This lot then subcontracted smaller security firms, etc. and staff basically had no training and very limited PPE. A couple of things are suggested above that need rebutting: the first is that these security firms may just be 'scapegoats'. No, genomic sequencing seems to suggest that the vast majority of cases in Victoria can be traced back to one particular hotel, Rydges on Swanston. The fault lies firmly with the management of hotel quarantine by these security firms. The second is that it was a guard 'entering a relationship' with a returned traveller - there is no evidence for this; it's enough to say these guards were not really trained, provided with the correct gear, etc.

So at this point it's a perfect storm, right? Australia has 'crushed the curve' because most of its cases have been in hotel quarantine, and hotel quarantine is the weak link here. But the other weak link is industry, which has never really had any restrictions placed on it. In mid-May spread from the hotel quarantine situation has begun to embed in communities where many members work in the very precarious industries where very few restrictions are in place -- and since most of them are casual workers they have little choice but to work, for fear of losing their livelihood.

Since mid-May - again - 80% of cases have been attributed to workplace spread. But it was only yesterday that real restrictions were put on workplaces. I think that says it all.
 
They certainly don't mess about down under, fines of up to £10,899 for repeat offenders that breach stay at home orders. :eek:

Australia’s second-most populous state Victoria said on Tuesday that anyone breaking COVID-19 isolation orders will face hefty fines, as high as A$20,000 (10,899 pounds), and that more military personnel will be deployed to fight the spread of the virus.
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But nearly a third of those who contracted COVID-19 were not home isolating when checked on by officials, requiring tough new penalties, Victoria state Premier Daniel Andrews said on Tuesday. Fines of nearly A$5,000 will be issued to anyone breaching stay at home orders. Repeat offenders face a fine of up to A$20,000.

“There is literally no reason for you to leave your home and if you were to leave your home and not be found there, you will have a very difficult time convincing Victoria police that you have a lawful reason,” Andrews told reporters in Melbourne.

 
Here's the thing you've got to remember though: this punitive approach hasn't been working at all - as this wave shows - insofar as it affects individuals. More needs to be done to businesses that aren't making their workplaces covid-safe, are continuing to operate, or who are refusing to give staff sick leave to isolate, all of which have been issues driving the workplace spread. This is 'look we're tough', but in the wider context falls quite flat.

There has been a concerted effort to make this about the minority of idiot individuals who do flout the rules, despite these idiots not being the real drivers of this infection but outliers. From a public health perspective, there's also a very serious risk this will lead people to avoid tests.
 
It's also interesting to note that there has actually been a not insignificant Trumpian 'end the lockdown' element among the political class throughout the country, and these have been the people calling most passionately for the really harsh, punitive measures. I believe an opposition (Liberal) MP in Victoria called on the Premier to put ankle bracelets on all positive cases, the rest of the time this person has called for reopening the economy and ending all restrictions.

It's kind of fascinating to be honest, thinking about coronavirus comparatively and the different approaches taken globally. Yet everywhere a very similar story seems to emerge: deep, material issues caused by decades of privatisation, precarious employment and the destruction of workplace politics is the gap into which the virus slips. And the easiest response is to individualise the solution.
 
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