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Supine said:
I’ve successfully managed to get my 78 year old mum to leave work in London and head home for the foreseeable.

She still plans on going to church on Sundays. Time for churches to stop services imho.
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Yep. Mosques, Synagogues, Temples and houses of ill repute ditto.
 
brogdale said:
Even that red line is garbage. There might be 4k ICU beds in the UK, but that number is pretty meaningless if they're all full. They were generally at 95%+ 'BC'.
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Yep. There is also the problem that you cannot put the average nurse into ICU without close supervision, it is way beyond average nursing. I'm ICU trained, and were it not for the fact that I'm also at very high risk, I would volunteer. I've effectively got one lung and am 67. :( I'm keeping well clear of people, because I know that if I catch this thing, chances of survival ain't good, nor do I expect to be using resources that a younger person needs. Italy have declared that over 80s will get what can be given, which won't be a lot. Expect that here. It will come to prioritising the younger folk, as it should be.
 
Some interesting things from Poland coming out regarding timelines:

This one showing the lag factor and incubation periods, where Poland locked down, and where the number of official cases is expected to rise to:




In this, red is Italy, Blue is Germany, Yellow is Spain. Don't think we can take the UK curve seriously because they aren't testing.




Another projection here, expecting 1000 cases in Poland by Saturday.




Poland currently have 205 confirmed diagnosed and 5 deaths.
 
Supine said:
I’ve successfully managed to get my 78 year old mum to leave work in London and head home for the foreseeable.

She still plans on going to church on Sundays. Time for churches to stop services imho.
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There was a story in the news end of last week about how the Catholic church were considering suspending Mass from next Sunday.

And when my wife was at Mass last Sunday the priest announced that because of CV, going to Mass every week is no longer an obligation for Catholics.

(don't know if any of that is directly relevant to your Mum...)
 
Does anyone have a good link to a credible source which will prove to my wife that yes, you are infectious with this virus before you show symptoms? She seems to have picked up the idea from the media reporting that the only time you become infectious is when you’ve started showing symptoms, which is the exact opposite of what I’ve been hearing the past month.
 
MrCurry said:
Does anyone have a good link to a credible source which will prove to my wife that yes, you are infectious with this virus before you show symptoms? She seems to have picked up the idea from the media reporting that the only time you become infectious is when you’ve started showing symptoms, which is the exact opposite of what I’ve been hearing the past month.
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Try page 2 of this WHO situation report where it states:
we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset
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Additionally, in this ECDC technical report they suggest 24 hours prior has been observed.
 
There are so many Corona threads, I'm not sure this is the right one.
I live in Tarentaise, ski country in the french alps. All the ski resorts closed this week-end and everywhere is deserted.
My wife, who works for a french version of Wickes was told by Sms at midnight not to come to work until further notice and that she would be put on "chômage partiel " which means she will get 80 something % of the SMIC , the minimum wage, paid by the state.
I work in the building trade. This morning I went to work and my boss gave me a certificate to show any coppers who might stop me on the roads from midday today. He also gave me the choice to stay at work, we can't work on déplacement but there is work in the depot, to take any holiday that we have outstanding, or to opt for the chômage partiel.
I took the holidays option.
We don't have to pay any utilities bills or our mortgage until further notice either.
Apparently yesterday there was nothing on the shelves at our local superu yesterday, but my friendly dealer who works there said that they had an overnight shift and all the shelves are full again.
All thats open are pharmacies, doctors, boulangerie, tabac presse, petrol stations and food shops and after seeing the aforementioned dealer, I don't think I need anything else.
 
MrCurry said:
Does anyone have a good link to a credible source which will prove to my wife that yes, you are infectious with this virus before you show symptoms? She seems to have picked up the idea from the media reporting that the only time you become infectious is when you’ve started showing symptoms, which is the exact opposite of what I’ve been hearing the past month.
Click to expand...
According to the World Health Org website you can catch it from someone without symptoms but the risk is low.
www.who.int

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

WHO is continuously monitoring and responding to this pandemic. This questions and answers page will be updated as more is known about COVID-19, how it spreads and how it is affecting people worldwide. For more information, regularly check the WHO coronavirus pages. https://www.who.int/covid-19
www.who.int www.who.int
Can CoVID-19 be caught from a person who has no symptoms?
The main way the disease spreads is through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing. The risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low. However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill. WHO is assessing ongoing research on the period of transmission of COVID-19 and will continue to share updated findings.
 
2hats said:
Try page 2 of this WHO situation report where it states:

Additionally, in this ECDC technical report they suggest 24 hours prior has been observed.
Click to expand...
Indeliblelink said:
According to the World Health Org website you can catch it from someone without symptoms but the risk is low.
www.who.int

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

WHO is continuously monitoring and responding to this pandemic. This questions and answers page will be updated as more is known about COVID-19, how it spreads and how it is affecting people worldwide. For more information, regularly check the WHO coronavirus pages. https://www.who.int/covid-19
www.who.int www.who.int
Can CoVID-19 be caught from a person who has no symptoms?
The main way the disease spreads is through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing. The risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low. However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill. WHO is assessing ongoing research on the period of transmission of COVID-19 and will continue to share updated findings.
Click to expand...

Perfect! Thanks very much for that both :thumbs:
 
Last edited:
EMERGENCY ACTION AGAINST DISMISSALS - 1pm Barkers Pool
At 1pm today activists from Sheffield Needs a Pay Rise and others will meet at Barkers Pool on the city hall steps to leaflets workers in bars and restaurants to help them join unions and defend their rights against indefinite loss of pay resulting from the government’s ill-prepared, botched shut-down. Thousands of low-paid workers in Sheffield in the service sector will shortly be left without pay for weeks: let’s help them get organised.
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good that this happened.
 
planetgeli said:
No, there aren’t. In time this will be seen as one of the most foolish mistakes we have made. Schools are breeding grounds for disease at the best of times. Millions of ‘unavoidable’ connections being made every day. It’s the perfect way to spread it and why a hell of a lot of other countries have made the move to close schools.

Add to that, I don’t like the government playing roulette with my life. Especially when it’s just a matter of time. I’m willing to bet these ‘sound reasons’ won’t count for shit in a few days time when, guess what, they’ll close the schools.
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Just been told unofficially but from two separate reputable sources that school is closing on Friday.
 
So how many cases do they realistically reckon are in the UK? Read figures of up to 55k in the gruniad, and 3 confirmed cases in my area.

Now I might be stupid, but if we aren't doing routine testing, and it's supposed to be extremely infectious, then surely 3 confirmed cases could be 3000, or 30,000 or fuck knows what. Spoke to my bro in the north east, he's feeling symptoms, I'm feeling symptoms, both healthy as fuck usually.

A proper shitshow from the govt, I must say.

When is someone going to come out and say, 'youve probably got it' rather than all this stiff upper lip, head in the sand bullshit instead of bandying round imaginary figures and platitudes?
 
Rosemary Jest said:
So how many cases do they realistically reckon are in the UK? Read figures of up to 55k in the gruniad, and 3 confirmed cases in my area.
Click to expand...

I tend to follow the advice of Prof Neil Ferguson, who is advising the UK government on modelling the spread of the virus. His yardstick is that while we are in the exponential growth phase, there will be around 1000 currently infected people per death which has occurred. Right now we are at 56 deaths, so 56,000 infected people in Uk.

He explains the rationale for this yardstick measure in this video, from around 0:50

 
Yossarian said:
Hong Kong is now quarantining all arrivals from overseas after 50 out of 57 cases were linked to foreigners arriving from Europe - local media hasn't failed to notice that Westerners aren't keen on wearing masks.

View attachment 202044
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I have to admit that I’m struck by the irony of this pandemic being centred on rich white countries.

Those who are accustomed to periodic outbreaks of highly infectious disease are probably better placed to take the necessary precautions. Our relative complacency about contagious disease may prove to be a significant factor.





Apparently, in places where there is risk of Ebola, the day to day protective measures that have been in place for some time are substantially helping people to avoid C19.
 
This is a really interesting article:

Being reinfected with COVID-19 is possible, said Sharon Lewin, director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne, but such an instance would be "surprising." It's possible that patients are not actually being reinfected, but that other factors—misdiagnosis, human error, or faulty tests—are giving that appearance.
Click to expand...
The mysterious double positives could simply be the result of human error. Hospitals have been testing for the presence of the virus using swab samples from a patient's nose, throat, and sometimes lungs. Swabs can yield different quantities of the virus depending on where the clinician swabs and how they do it, Lewin said. If the swab sample yields too little of the virus, it could lead to a false negative for a patient who is still infected.

Problems with the testing kits themselves can also lead to false negatives or false positives—like the batch of faulty kits the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention rushed out and then ordered back, a blunder that delayed testing in the U.S. by weeks and may have contributed to the virus's spread there.

The Wuhan man who died after he was discharged and readmitted had twice tested negative for the virus before being released, though a pre-discharge CT scan indicated a remaining infection in his lungs.
Click to expand...

www.fortune.com

Why are patients who recover from coronavirus testing positive again?

Scientists are trying to understand mysterious 'double positives.'
www.fortune.com www.fortune.com
 
cupid_stunt said:
For now, wait until it takes off in Africa. :(
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Yes. I should have said. I realise that this is just the beginning and it’s going to be very very bad.

I’m actually afraid to think of how awful it’s going to be for refugees, homeless people, those in countries with scanty healthcare.
 
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