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elbows said:
What that most probably indicates is the relative lack of confirmed/tested milder cases there.
Click to expand...

I should have also taken that opportunity to mention that since UK testing approach changed, almost 100% of our confirmed cases could be hospitalised in future, because those that arent in hospital wont end up being part of the stats at all.

Not that it could reach 100% due to those picked up in the earlier phase of testing, and the ongoing community surveillance sampling from locations other than hospitals, and testing related to institutional outbreaks (prisons etc). But hopefully my point makes sense!
 
Scenes from Krakow, Poland:


Poland's measures came in overnight Saturday/Sunday, all foreign travellers entering into Poland are banned unless they have residency, work, spouse etc. Bars/restaurants are closed. Schools/nurseries are closed. Small businesses are mainly encouraging people to work from home if possible. Shopping malls are closed. Gyms, theatres, cinemas, etc all closed and any public gathering of more than 50 people has been barred.

The shops remain open but many shops have started a queuing system so that there are not too many people in the shops at one time, and people keep their distance. The city has lifted the parking zones to encourage people who must travel into the city to avoid public transport, and to walk or drive solo instead.

There are not many reports of panic buying. Most people are being very responsible and only taking what they need.

So far in Krakow we had one confirmed case in hospital, but it has just been announced that there are 2 other cases in Krk, and the total number of cases so far i hovering around 150 with 3 dead.

Lockdown started pretty much as soon as the first death was announced but the interesting thing is that even on Friday, before anything were announced people had already decided to practise social distancing and stay at home. The streets on Friday and the bars and restaurants were pretty much empty. People here are taking it very seriously but not panicking. Most businesses had told people to work from home before any measures were announced and my school closed on Thursday.

There are no bans on people leaving the house, so people are going for walks to parks, but everyone is keeping a distance from family groups and each other and giving people space.

There are community initiatives to get supplies that are needed into hospitals before the shit hits the fan, this Facebook page for examples are asking people to donate cotton, wire or even make things for potential patients. People are really pulling together. Maseczki dla krakowskich medyków

The government are expecting figures of cases to reach 4 figures within 10 days and that's with lockdown in place. I've heard there are 2 new cases in Krakow today. The measures are in place for 2 weeks, but I do expect they will be in place for longer.

Everyone here is absolutely shocked by what is going on the UK. People just can't believe that the government are putting so many people at risk, and that people are still going to pubs and bars.

I'm so proud to call this place home - even if I basically have no income at the moment. Skype lessons are go, but unsurprisingly not that many people are interested.

I have to say I'm super impressed with the way the community has stuck together, helped each other, been responsible. And been so pro active.
 
Louis MacNeice said:
I've also heard of two head teachers locally (Brighton) who are preparing for closure by the end of the week. It is going to happen and soon.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
Click to expand...

Our head (a secondary - also Brighton) seems to agree with what chilango is hearing - 27th/the week before the Easter hols - but I think he's just as likely to be guessing as the rest of us are, tbf!
 
elbows said:
WHO Director General just said 'you cannot fight a fire blindfolded'.

And 'We have a simple message for all countries. Test, test, test.'
Click to expand...



Yes many made the point a while back that 1,500 was not enough that university laboratories should have been taken over to meet the task, also crucial is the PPE shortage:

Halfway through our mask-fitting programme we have run out of the type of mask that was most commonly being fitted, rendering two weeks of intensive training useless.

That hospital is already full and our staff have begun to get sick. A hastily convened ethics panel will try to offer us some guidance on how we ration our limited resources and to whom we will be forced to deny lifesaving treatment. The numbers imply that this will not have to happen in the summer, or in a few weeks, but in a few days.


He also said "we haven't seen enough escalation in testing, isolation & contact tracing, which is the backbone of the #COVID19 response"

When anyone starts showing symptoms all their contacts must be isolated ASAP. As it is, the country has given up, no one knows where confirmed cases went or did.
 
FabricLiveBaby! said:
Scenes from Krakow, Poland:


Poland's measures came in overnight Saturday/Sunday, all foreign travellers entering into Poland are banned unless they have residency, work, spouse etc. Bars/restaurants are closed. Schools/nurseries are closed. Small businesses are mainly encouraging people to work from home if possible. Shopping malls are closed. Gyms, theatres, cinemas, etc all closed and any public gathering of more than 50 people has been barred.

The shops remain open but many shops have started a queuing system so that there are not too many people in the shops at one time, and people keep their distance. The city has lifted the parking zones to encourage people who must travel into the city to avoid public transport, and to walk or drive solo instead.

There are not many reports of panic buying. Most people are being very responsible and only taking what they need.

So far in Krakow we had one confirmed case in hospital, but it has just been announced that there are 2 other cases in Krk, and the total number of cases so far i hovering around 150 with 3 dead.

Lockdown started pretty much as soon as the first death was announced but the interesting thing is that even on Friday, before anything were announced people had already decided to practise social distancing and stay at home. The streets on Friday and the bars and restaurants were pretty much empty. People here are taking it very seriously but not panicking. Most businesses had told people to work from home before any measures were announced and my school closed on Thursday.

There are no bans on people leaving the house, so people are going for walks to parks, but everyone is keeping a distance from family groups and each other and giving people space.

There are community initiatives to get supplies that are needed into hospitals before the shit hits the fan, this Facebook page for examples are asking people to donate cotton, wire or even make things for potential patients. People are really pulling together. Maseczki dla krakowskich medyków

The government are expecting figures of cases to reach 4 figures within 10 days and that's with lockdown in place. I've heard there are 2 new cases in Krakow today. The measures are in place for 2 weeks, but I do expect they will be in place for longer.

Everyone here is absolutely shocked by what is going on the UK. People just can't believe that the government are putting so many people at risk, and that people are still going to pubs and bars.

I'm so proud to call this place home - even if I basically have no income at the moment. Skype lessons are go, but unsurprisingly not that many people are interested.

I have to say I'm super impressed with the way the community has stuck together, helped each other, been responsible. And been so pro active.
Click to expand...

Are there any plans to help with the loss of incomes?!
 
sheothebudworths said:
Are there any plans to help with the loss of incomes?!
Click to expand...

I don't know of any as yet, but it could be because the news hadn't reached me. I'm guessing that there will be other measures depending on what happens across Europe. I'm thinking there probably will be something, but it hasn't been announced yet and I'm guessing that it is being talked about behind closed doors. TBH most people are willing to take a hit on income while the govt gets a true measure of what is going on. But I do suspect that this is going to go on for longer than the initial 14 days. I'm almost certain the border closures will stay in place while other European nations haven't got it under control.

Another good thing the govt has done is that the are recording all coach and train seats with people travelling and names. That way if anything happens they can trace movement.

For sure we are all waiting for summer - and hoping for a hot one.
 
sheothebudworths said:
Are there any plans to help with the loss of incomes?!
Click to expand...

I mean part of the problem is that whatever the govt decide to do is going to be shit in some way. It's just a case of what is the least shit option. And for most people that seems to be acting quickly to mitigate and taking a financial hit while the picture emerges.
 
Another significant deviation from British policy:
"People infected with #COVID19 can still infect others after they stop feeling sick, so these measures should continue for at least 2 weeks after symptoms disappear. Visitors should not be allowed until the end of this period. There are more details in WHO’s guidance"

Chris Whitty in the press conference explicitly said 7 days.

Yesterday Germany recorded 5813 cases and 13 deaths, UK recorded 1391 cases and triple the deaths. So there is a massive disconnect going on. The problem is contact tracing has been professionalised, so people don't do it themselves anyone who feels sick should immediately be telling anyone they met in the past 14 days to isolate. (I know that sentence will be unpopular, but there we are).
 
sihhi said:
Yes many made the point a while back that 1,500 was not enough that university laboratories should have been taken over to meet the task, also crucial is the PPE shortage:

Halfway through our mask-fitting programme we have run out of the type of mask that was most commonly being fitted, rendering two weeks of intensive training useless.

That hospital is already full and our staff have begun to get sick. A hastily convened ethics panel will try to offer us some guidance on how we ration our limited resources and to whom we will be forced to deny lifesaving treatment. The numbers imply that this will not have to happen in the summer, or in a few weeks, but in a few days.


He also said "we haven't seen enough escalation in testing, isolation & contact tracing, which is the backbone of the #COVID19 response"

When anyone starts showing symptoms all their contacts must be isolated ASAP. As it is, the country has given up, no one knows where confirmed cases went or did.
Click to expand...
The lass I sit next to at work (too close even without a pandemic, tbh) - her dad was at church with an infected person and had symptoms last week but no test yet. She sent me this message this morning:
he called 111 up and they said that they aren't rushing to him to test him because he is rated at a 3. They told him to call the docs. He phoned the docs this morning. If you've already had it and survived it your immune to it. She just told him that he is free to move around now because he doesn't show any symptoms. I'm not showing any symptoms either
Click to expand...
 
sihhi said:
Chris Whitty in the press conference explicitly said 7 days.
Click to expand...

Thats almost certainly the consequence of them not doing testing beyond hospitals etc. Because they arent testing mild cases, they have to give advice about self isolation while ill that they know will also end up including people with other illnesses that are not Covid-19. So they have probably done the maths and seen what that will do for workforce numbers, and decided to alter that particular burden by going for 7 days instead of 14.

I do not support this strategy, I'm just explaining that aspect. They are playing a numbers game based on a very different set of assumptions about what people will put up with, economic effects etc, and the medium term plan compared to many other countries.
 
sihhi said:
Which experts?
Click to expand...

Plenty, fucking shedloads, I could quote the likes of the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser, but lets go with someone totally independent from our government...

There are also serious concerns that lifting the restrictions will rekindle the epidemic. Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who carried out an analysis of early Covid-19 dynamics in Wuhan, wrote yesterday that, “there's evidence that the vast majority of the population is still susceptible in Wuhan”, estimating that the total figure at the end of January was likely around 95 per cent. “As soon as control measures are lifted, there is the risk of new introduced cases - and another outbreak,” Kucharski added.

“It's not sustainable,” says Flahaut. “It is something which is short term – the epidemic dynamic will restart soon as soon as you lift the measures.” As China tries to get its citizens back to work, it may see another spike.“They’re normalising life back in other parts of China now,” says Bogoch. And as they do that, they may see more cases – they're not finished, and this isn't over.”

SOURCE
Click to expand...

It works in bringing an outbreak back under control, you can get back to testing in the hope of cases being caught early, combined with contact tracing etc., but as long as there's still new cases, no matter how low, there's a risk it will take off again.

It's basic logic when you think about, every country started with a handful of cases being picked-up, some were very good in catching them early, isolating them, and doing contact tracing, yet it still took off at varying speeds.

Until there's no new cases whatsoever, it's not over, especially as every new case can go on to infect loads more people.
 
sihhi said:
Another significant deviation from British policy:
"People infected with #COVID19 can still infect others after they stop feeling sick, so these measures should continue for at least 2 weeks after symptoms disappear. Visitors should not be allowed until the end of this period. There are more details in WHO’s guidance"
Click to expand...

I did this on Wednesday. I woke up with a cough and sore throat. Nothing else. No fever or anything and just on that I phoned the school to say I wasn't going to go in just in case. They said they were cancelling classes anyway just in case.

I still have a cough and sore throat - nothing else. I'm hoping it's just a standard bug - I have no tonsils and these fucking things love to sit in my throat and I often get quite bad coughs . I'm staying the fuck away from people either way.

The weird thing is, that this is normal thinking here. "Stay the fuck away from people and stop spreading your germs about". It used to make me puzzled the amount of medicine adverts on telly here, and that as soon as people got even the sniffles they would work from home or failing that get signed off by the doc for 2 weeks. Slowly came to realise that for this part of Europe it's just normal behaviour not to pass your germs on to other people. I'm glad of that culture now I tell you!
 
Adam Kucharski is part of the modelling group at LSHTM, U of London, giving its models to SAGE, Scientific Advisory Group in Emergencies



I think China's contact tracing and isolation will clamp down on any spike.

"As China tries to get its citizens back to work, it may see another spike"

For the sake of this hypothetical future China spike, action is being delayed now in Britain even though Mike Ryan of the WHO said you need speed not perfection, because the virus is several steps ahead of you.
 
Flew back in from SE Asia yesterday. So more chilled out there, people just going about their day to day. Shelves full. Its mental here, the wheels have come off big time. So much for British stoicism. Keep calm and carry on my arse.
 
Also that fat cunt can go fuck himself. If I fancy a pint at the local I'm going to have one.
 
elbows said:
WHO Director General just said 'you cannot fight a fire blindfolded'.

And 'We have a simple message for all countries. Test, test, test.'
Click to expand...

BBC just asked Johnson about this. Whitty ended up answering that part of the question. Fudge answer really, although they said they would continue to scale up their testing. This answer dodges the central point of the WHOs stance.
 
Teaboy said:
Flew back in from SE Asia yesterday. So more chilled out there, people just going about their day to day. Shelves full. Its mental here, the wheels have come off big time. So much for British stoicism. Keep calm and carry on my arse.
Click to expand...

It’s been a myth since at least 97.
 
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