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At this rate it is only a matter of time till the number of yes, serious votes in the somewhat silly poll that ended up in this thread exceed the no votes. Will this be the moment the WHO choose to finally declare a pandemic, long after most people had moved on from quibbling about the use of the term?
 
The39thStep said:
There’s not a huge amount of human traffic between Portugal and Spain , well not as much as you’d think prob more between Portugal and France and Portugal and Switzerland.
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And France is at over 1,400 confirmed cases, with Switzerland on almost 400, which is massive for such a tiny country, and on a per million basis well over double that of France.

I fear the figure for Portugal is, like America, down to a lack of looking for it.
 
elbows said:
At this rate it is only a matter of time till the number of yes, serious votes in the somewhat silly poll that ended up in this thread exceed the no votes. Will this be the moment the WHO choose to finally declare a pandemic, long after most people had moved on from quibbling about the use of the term?
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Reassuring that the WHO are monitoring the thread
 
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weltweit said:
If the numbers here are to be belived, Coronavirus Update (Live): 118,468 Cases and 4,267 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer South Korea seems to have a lower mortality than Iran or Italy despite having announced a similar number of cases.
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They've been testing a LOT more people. There was also something about the people they have been testing skewing younger and female too, somehow related to the cult thing they had going on there.
 
Buddy Bradley said:
They've been testing a LOT more people. There was also something about the people they have been testing skewing younger and female too, somehow related to the cult thing they had going on there.
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Interesting, they have certainly found cases, quite a lot, yet deaths still lag Iran and Italy. I don't understand it.
 
cupid_stunt said:
And France is at over 1,400 confirmed cases, with Switzerland on almost 400, which is massive for such a tiny country, and on a per million basis well over double that of France.

I fear the figure for Portugal is, like America, down to a lack of looking for it.
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Dunno tbh , there is the same public health advice re self isolation as the UK , people who may have been in contact with the 40 cases have been asked to come forward to be tested , the President has just done self isolation as an example even though he’s tested negative. They’ve stopped all flights to Italy and for those coming from China go into compulsory isolation .The Portuguese are great migrators but traditionally come back Xmas , Easter , some times the summer so perhaps Easter is the next crucial period .
in terms of a lack of looking for it I understand that flights inbound from Italy to the U.K. have no extra checks?
 
The39thStep said:
..
in terms of a lack of looking for it I understand that flights inbound from Italy to the U.K. have no extra checks?
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Luckily it seems the airlines have now pretty much cancelled flights to and from Italy. At least I think it may be all of them, not sure. Could have happened earlier though.
 
weltweit said:
Interesting, they have certainly found cases, quite a lot, yet deaths still lag Iran and Italy. I don't understand it.
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There are a whole bunch of countries where I, if not confused about their data exactly, would still not like to predict what story we should be trying to tell with it.

Certainly as mentioned by someone else, a large number of the confirmed cases they have are linked to the religious cluster. In theory the implications of this could include:

They have found a lot of milder cases that may not otherwise have been discovered.
They might be discovering a lot of cases quite early, which could mean better care/survival rates, or could just mean we have to wait longer for many more of these cases to start to die.
They might be focussing so much on cases related to the few known clusters, and missing other parts of the picture.

Other possibilities exist too I'm sure. I dont want to pick any of these as likely at the moment, I just have to wait.

I certainly dont exclude the possibility that there is another twist to the story of this virus to come. Maybe in a couple of weeks if the variations between countries are still rather interesting and poorly explained, I will have a stab at considering some possibilities.
 
weltweit said:
Luckily it seems the airlines have now pretty much cancelled flights to and from Italy. At least I think it may be all of them, not sure. Could have happened earlier though.
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Interesting that in some states it’s the airlines that have done this and in others it’s been decreed by the state .
 
weltweit said:
Interesting, they have certainly found cases, quite a lot, yet deaths still lag Iran and Italy. I don't understand it.
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Country A
50,000 mild cases, 2,000 intensive cases, 1,000 deaths. Country A tests 10% of mild cases.

Country B
10,000 mild cases, 400 intensive cases, 200 deaths. Country B tests 50% of mild cases.

Country A's figures end up being a total of 8,000 cases, with 25% in intensive care and a fatality rate of 12.5%. Country B's figures end up being a total of 5,600 cases with 7.1% in intensive care, and 3.5% fatality rate.

Essentially as you increase testing, you increase the resolution of your data set and get closer to the actual rates for the disease. The disparity between Italy and SK does seem so large that there must be other factors... But it's just impossible to say without more information. We don't really seem to have any grasp on underreporting. One way to get around this might be to randomly select individuals from a population (as you do for political polling etc) and regularly test each of them as the virus spreads.
 
Cid said:
One way to get around this might be to randomly select individuals from a population (as you do for political polling etc) and regularly test each of them as the virus spreads.
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Yeah. I've been saying for ages that I'm kind of stuck when it comes to proclaiming all manner of things from the data, until such a time that various community sampling, serological surveys etc have been done, collated and revealed, ideally from multiple countries.
 
S☼I said:
Does anyone know advice on people returning from Cyprus? Couple of my learners have just gone there for two weeks.
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i came back from cyprus on saturday - at that time there had been no cases there, so there was no special advice - in fact there was fuck all about the virus anywhere when we got to manchester airport - no announcements or posters, nothing. What the case will be in two weeks is anyone's guess.
 
* SKY CONFIRMS THAT A SKY EMPLOYEE IN CARDIFF CONTACT CENTRE HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH COVID-19 - BBC

* SKY'S CARDIFF CALL CENTRE OFFICE HAS BEEN EVACUATED AND CLOSED FOR DEEP CLEANING AND WILL RE-OPEN ON THURSDAY
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staff got turfed out,down in the bay, told to take a few days off

Getting close to home .....On the plus side ...I scored some anti bacterial hand cream in Tesco's tonight, must have had a delivery 30 seconds before I arrived there ..
 
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