Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Given Scotland went back to school earlier and that might be a factor is there any breakdown of the wave by UK regions? Ie did Scotland start and peak faster to give a guide to the UK overall experience?

In past waves the typical picture was of Scotland being ahead of England, but for whatever reason it didnt end up as such a neat and predictable picture this time. Scotland saw a brief initial rise ahead of England, but then that stopped and stalled in Scotland and England soared ahead. Scotland eventually started rising notably again but they ended up being behind England instead of ahead of England.

 

[elbows]

I canot comment that much on this modelling unless its published.

Respiratory illness may take up half of NHS beds this winter

Health bosses in England are worried about the threat of flu, Covid and other respiratory illnesses.

www.bbc.co.uk

Up to half of all hospitals beds in England could be occupied by patients with respiratory infections, including Covid and flu, NHS England says.

The warning came as NHS bosses set out further details of its plans to help the health service cope this winter.

This includes rapid response teams to help people who have fallen at home and "data war rooms" to monitor pressures.

The return of normal winter viruses along with Covid will place huge strain on hospitals, NHS England said.

It said the modelling, which has not been published, was very much a worst-case scenario - even during the peak of the pandemic, Covid did not lead to such high levels of beds being occupied.

But NHS England chief executive Amanda Pritchard said it was important to be prepared.

 

[Thesaint]

Gi

I canot comment that much on this modelling unless its published.

Respiratory illness may take up half of NHS beds this winter

Health bosses in England are worried about the threat of flu, Covid and other respiratory illnesses.

www.bbc.co.uk

Given the performance of viral modelling in recent years would you even trust it anyway?

 

[2hats]

Gi

Given the performance of viral modelling in recent years would you even trust it anyway?

Which "viral modelling" would that be?

 

[elbows]

Given the performance of viral modelling in recent years would you even trust it anyway?

The models were incredibly useful as far as I'm concerned. They were certainly useful for getting idiot politicians who didnt understand the scale of the pandemics implications to end up taking action eventually.

I dont expect the models to be a perfect prediction of the future or anything vaguely close to that. The modellers themselves made it quite clear they were just modelling various scenarios with various parameters, they werent trying to provide a perfect guide as to what would actually happen. Especially since many of the most famous modelling exercises were designed to inform political decisions that would then have an impact on what sort of pandemic wave curves we actually saw in reality.

Im a big fan of realsonable worst case scenarios too. They are an important planning tool. People who moan about those often have really shitty agendas and love making unsafe, ignorant claims and gambling with public health.

 

[existentialist]

Gi

Given the performance of viral modelling in recent years would you even trust it anyway?

Here we go...

 

[elbows]

Even if Covid vanished tomorrow I would still be shitting it over the sorts of figures shown in stories like this one:

Patients at risk as NHS and care 'gridlocked'

The system can no longer operate effectively, the Care Quality Commission warns, as delays mount.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

I know its not covid but the flu season is behaving as feared/planned for so far, following a similar pattern to what Australia experienced - an earlier than usual wave, although in the UK its still much to early to tell how large it will end up being:

Flu comes early in England, with hospital cases rising

Cases have climbed quickly in the past week, suggesting the season has already begun, say officials.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[gentlegreen]

I'm glad I had my booster and flu shot last week and reacted to them.

I cycled to the deli and forgot it was Diwali ...
I was one of the oldest people in a rammed shop and was the only one wearing a mask.
Someone behind me in the queue actually coughed...

The greatest exposure I've had since this all started .
Watch this space....

 

[elbows]

Same sort of picture this week, but with RSV hospitalisations in young children also showing up more notably again now.

Concern over flu and winter viruses but Covid levels unchanged

The flu season has started early and some young children under five are ending up in hospital.

www.bbc.co.uk

I've plucked a few charts from the weekly surveillance report, to try to add some context to the story. There are way more charts in the weekly report tyhan I can reasonably post though. Full report here: https://assets.publishing.service.g...97/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w43__3_.pdf





Hopefully that provides some sense of how we've been here before with RSV hospital pressures, and that the influenza pressures havent yet had the steeper climb seen in some pre-pandemic seasons, and nor are they comparable to the rates per 100,000 we still see for Covid.

 

[elbows]

Also the North West rather sticks out in terms of intensive care rates for influenza according to the following chart from the same source, but I dont really know how much to read into this yet.

 

[elbows]

 

[CH1]

I did that in 2010, when I was put on special measures at Lambeth Accord and forced to take them to a tribunal. As and when IDS cancelled ESA a year later that was the last straw.
I was buggered if I would ever work again. I refused to renew my Lib Dem membership and defected to the Green Party.

 

[oryx]

Excellent myth-busting piece from IndySage:

12 MYTHS ABOUT COVID-19: WHERE’S THE TRUTH? | Independent SAGE

www.independentsage.org

 

[elbows]

NHS boss Amanda Pritchard says patients not always getting care they deserve

Challenge facing health service greater than it was at peak of pandemic, says Amanda Pritchard.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ms Pritchard told the King's Fund annual conference in London that demand was rising more quickly than the NHS could cope with.

"I thought that the pandemic would be the hardest thing any of us ever had to do," she said.

"Over the last year, I've become really clear.... it's the months and years ahead that will bring the most complex challenges."

Well those first pandemic waves could be met with an emergency response where quality of care was not the headline aspect, and where many non-NHS and previously unthinkable actions could be used to reduce the pressure on the NHS. Including lockdowns and letting people die at home.

Clearly the subsequent period is more complex because its a mix of all the pre-pandemic problems, problems the pandemic is still causing, backlog that built up, etc etc. And there doesnt seem to be the same political impetus to respond.

An article I just stuck in the global thread is also likely relevant, when it comes to the various very real impacts Covid is still having, plenty of which are affecting healthcare services ability to cope. #10,826 To quote the most relevant section of that (its by an Australian emergency doctor) again here:

With no consent, no mandate, no public discussion, the “dry tinder” (the elderly, those with chronic disease, those most at risk of “reaping”, as Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has termed them) is being burnt off. Deaths and infirmity in these individuals can easily be explained away and so easily discounted.

The only way to identify that this is happening is through statistical analysis of death and illness rates. These analyses accumulate daily and are remarkably consistent around the globe, but statistical reports are not eye-catching and are easily ignored when it is expedient to do so.

In the same way, horror stories from a healthcare system burdened by abnormally high rates of illness can conveniently be explained away by citing “decades of underfunding”, creating “a dam that has finally burst”.

 

[Orang Utan]

I was going to visit keithy last weekend but I just couldn’t get on the train as it was a) too crowded and b) no one was wearing a mask
I’ve barely used public transport since the pandemic and fear I may have developed a neurosis about it. I keep making plans to visit my friends in London (don’t have any where I live in Leeds) and then chickening out. I’m supposed to be going there for Xmas but may have to cab it everywhere which will be dear

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

I was going to visit keithy last weekend but I just couldn’t get on the train as it was a) too crowded and b) no one was wearing a mask
I’ve barely used public transport since the pandemic and fear I may have developed a neurosis about it. I keep making plans to visit my friends in London (don’t have any where I live in Leeds) and then chickening out. I’m supposed to be going there for Xmas but may have to cab it everywhere which will be dear

I think your post would fit well in the covid agoraphobia thread , I know the friendofdorothy who started the thread has just caught covid despite all the avoidance so maybe a chat there might help you with doing stuff you want to do?
I also acknowledge that covid is still here and present despite the MSN narrative and it is something to look out for if you have any health issues that could make the outcome worse, and yes hardly anyone seems to wear a mask anymore in london (I stopped despite my plans not to, and I caught some other lurgy a few weeks backs because of this, I also caught covid while wearing a FPP2 mask a few months back).
How are you with vaccination and boosters?

 

[Orang Utan]

I think your post would fit well in the covid agoraphobia thread , I know the friendofdorothy who started the thread has just caught covid despite all the avoidance so maybe a chat there might help you with doing stuff you want to do?
I also acknowledge that covid is still here and present despite the MSN narrative and it is something to look out for if you have any health issues that could make the outcome worse, and yes hardly anyone seems to wear a mask anymore in london (I stopped despite my plans not to, and I caught some other lurgy a few weeks backs because of this, I also caught covid while wearing a FPP2 mask a few months back).
How are you with vaccination and boosters?

I’m all boosted up thanks.
I don’t have agoraphobia though.
I’ve been clubbing and to festivals and not worn masks. I don’t use them much at work and I work with the public face to face. It’s just the thought of being jammed up against people in a place I have little control over that gets my heart thumping, temples throbbing and BP leaping. Never liked public transport much or even cars, but it’s never been a fear or horrible anxiety, just unease and lack of trust in anyone but myself to get me around.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

I’m all boosted up thanks.
I don’t have agoraphobia though.
I’ve been clubbing and to festivals and not worn masks. I don’t use them much at work and I work with the public face to face. It’s just the thought of being jammed up against people in a place I have little control over that gets my heart thumping, temples throbbing and BP leaping. Never liked public transport much or even cars, but it’s never been a fear or horrible anxiety, just unease and lack of trust in anyone but myself to get me around.

fair enough, I hate public transport too and used to get up earlier to use the buses instead of the tube when I had to, hope you get to meet your friends and family.

 

[Orang Utan]

fair enough, I hate public transport too and used to get up earlier to use the buses instead of the tube when I had to, hope you get to meet your friends and family.

It might not even Covid related cos I’m not scared of getting it or even transmitting it as I rarely even think about it. But seeing other people behaving as if there’s no pandemic gives me such rage and disgust at other people (just strangers) and their close proximity makes me want to heave. But if I’m relaxed at a rave with sweaty people hugging me and pushing past me, I don’t feel that way at all. Our brains are far from rational I guess.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

As of this morning the "report your test result to the nhs" will actually read your test cassette to tell you if you have covid if you use a smartphone.

It didn't do this yesterday morning.

 

[friendofdorothy]

I’m all boosted up thanks.
I don’t have agoraphobia though.
I’ve been clubbing and to festivals and not worn masks. I don’t use them much at work and I work with the public face to face. It’s just the thought of being jammed up against people in a place I have little control over that gets my heart thumping, temples throbbing and BP leaping. Never liked public transport much or even cars, but it’s never been a fear or horrible anxiety, just unease and lack of trust in anyone but myself to get me around.

Mine didn't start as agoraphobia - it started with panic attacks, which I had never experienced before, at the thought of going on buses, trains, inside shops, and then outside at the market then eventually just anywhere getting to close to anyone at all even outside on the pavement. And it was a fear of getting covid with me and its associations with breathlessness and previous traumas. CBT didn't help me at all but EMDR therapy cured the panic attacks and crippling anxiety.

Sounds like your fear is being stuck to close with strangers who you don't like the look of, in confided spaces where you can't control the space or escape. Would it help to go at a quieter time when trains are not crowded? imagine that the people on the train are friends/ people you do like (they could be urbs!)? put headphones on close your eyes and imagine yourself at a rave?

Sorry you didn't get to see keithy Best wishes to you x

 

[elbows]

Following on from my previous post we have this story about the excessive number of deaths.

NHS disruption driving rise in heart deaths, charity says

Ambulance delays and waiting lists are driving excess cardiac deaths, the British Heart Foundation says.

www.bbc.co.uk

I am in no way claiming that all of the explanations in this article are invalid, they are a very real part of the picture, but as usual I note that the issue of covid causing health problems which lead to death quite a bit later on without being attributed to covid is still missing from this sort of picture. And the absence of any proper discussion of this fits rather well with what the Autralian doctor was saying in the article I mentioned in my last post ( The notion that COVID-19 has been vanquished is not supported by the facts )

 

[Orang Utan]

Mine didn't start as agoraphobia - it started with panic attacks, which I had never experienced before, at the thought of going on buses, trains, inside shops, and then outside at the market then eventually just anyone getting to close to anyone at all even outside on the pavement. And it was a fear of getting covid with me and its associations with breathlessness and previous traumas. CBT didn't help me at all but EMDR therapy cured the panic attacks and crippling anxiety.

Sounds like your fear is being stuck to close with strangers who you don't like the look of, in confided spaces where you can't control the space or escape. Would it help to go at a quieter time when trains are not crowded? imagine that the people on the train are friends/ people you do like (they could be urbs!)? put headphones on close your eyes and imagine yourself at a rave?

Sorry you didn't get to see keithy Best wishes to you x

thanks luv, glad you're feeling a bit better.
It's particularly difficult with intercity trains, esp with Transpennine Express (the Manc-Leeds train) and GNER (Leeds-London) as they're typically shit and chaotic, esp with all the strikes recently. So often you plan a quiet journey but cancellations and the subsequent doubling and even tripling up of passengers on a train results in you standing all the way. I don't want to travel without seating even at the best of times and it's a shame but probably operationally necessary that you can't ever get a guaranteed seat on a train even if you book it, unless you go 1st class. I think I'd feel more comfortable on a coach, which is also more cheap and you're at least guaranteed a seat, and there's arguably more room on a coach than on a crowded train.
But just even thinking of getting on a busy tube or London bus has me literally horripilating in dread and worry.
I've always immersed myself in my own world with headphones and/or a book - great tip! - and that does help, but not when it's standing room only.
Anyway I now have a mental image of a hellscape of a passenger train full of the likes of editor and Pickman's model terrifyingly multiplied like in that scene in Being John Malkovich, which is making me chuckle rather than panic

Spoiler: THAT SCENE IF YOU DUNNO WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT

 

[editor]

thanks luv, glad you're feeling a bit better.
It's particularly difficult with intercity trains, esp with Transpennine Express (the Manc-Leeds train) and GNER (Leeds-London) as they're typically shit and chaotic, esp with all the strikes recently. So often you plan a quiet journey but cancellations and the subsequent doubling and even tripling up of passengers on a train results in you standing all the way. I don't want to travel without seating even at the best of times and it's a shame but probably operationally necessary that you can't ever get a guaranteed seat on a train even if you book it, unless you go 1st class. I think I'd feel more comfortable on a coach, which is also more cheap and you're at least guaranteed a seat, and there's arguably more room on a coach than on a crowded train.
But just even thinking of getting on a busy tube or London bus has me literally horripilating in dread and worry.
I've always immersed myself in my own world with headphones and/or a book - great tip! - and that does help, but not when it's standing room only.
Anyway I now have a mental image of a hellscape of a passenger train full of the likes of editor and Pickman's model terrifyingly multiplied like in that scene in Being John Malkovich, which is making me chuckle rather than panic

Spoiler: THAT SCENE IF YOU DUNNO WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT

Thanks for that.

 

[Orang Utan]

Thanks for that.

Soz! This only reflects badly on me and my imagination, not you or even Pickman's

 

[Pickman's model]

Thanks for that.

remember, the only thing worse than being spoken about is not being spoken about

 

[elbows]

The wave has continued to decline.

In terms of how bad this wave was, a bunch of hospital data for England paints a picture of it not being as bad as the previous waves, and some data even shows a picture of continual improvement with each wave throughout this year, eg this stuff for number of patients with covid in hospital beds in England (with data going up to November 1st):


I wouldnt want to get too carried away with that interpretation, since changes to testing regimes including in hospitals has probably affected the extent to which data captures the full picture. And on the less severe side of the picture, there has been no shortage of anecdotal evidence about how rather a lot of people caught covid this time around. But even taking these things into account, we might still be able to presume that the immunity and vulnerability picture has grown more complicated over time, and overall protection has gradually grown to the point that it makes an increasing diffference to the sharp end of the picture. It isnt easy for me to express high confidence in terms of the future threat including this winters threat, but the latest vaccination campaign has likely made a real difference. And for the picture to get eye-wateringly grim again one of the new variants of the virus is going to have to demonstrate the ability to really bust past our built up protection against severe disease in quite a dramatic way. Well the overall situation could still get grim due to covid combined with general winter NHS pressures, what happens with flu, and overall state of the NHS and the nations health, but in terms of the sort of covid hospital levels that get people to pay attention and change the national mood music, I think the ball is in the virus evolutions court.

A while back I suggested that some data that enabled me to get a sense of hospital infection numbers had stopped being published, but I since learnt via others that actually enough data is still available to get a sense of infections in hospitals in England where the person tested positive 7 or more days after admission. The picture that data shows is that hospital infections were as bad as ever in many regions of England at the peak of this last wave, but then the situation improved. The ratio of hospital infections compared to community infections actually got worse than previously seen (excluding first wave that lacks data and sufficient testing), but Im not sure if that was the true picture or a data distortion due to the changing testing regime. I'm tempted to say that guards against hospital infections were reduced even more than before this time, and then when the inevitable implications were felt some corrective action was taken and more of a grip on the situation was obtained. But I cant really build that case strongly without more data and insider info than I really have, especially given changes to in-hospital testing.

Hospital Covid admissions/diagnoses for England by length of time from admission to positive test, to illustrate that last paragraph:

(it wont quite capture the full hospital infection picture since some cases testing positive in the 3-7 day timeframe will be suspected hospital infections too but I dont have that data)



Data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[friendofdorothy]

thanks luv, glad you're feeling a bit better.
It's particularly difficult with intercity trains, esp with Transpennine Express (the Manc-Leeds train) and GNER (Leeds-London) as they're typically shit and chaotic, esp with all the strikes recently. So often you plan a quiet journey but cancellations and the subsequent doubling and even tripling up of passengers on a train results in you standing all the way. I don't want to travel without seating even at the best of times and it's a shame but probably operationally necessary that you can't ever get a guaranteed seat on a train even if you book it, unless you go 1st class. I think I'd feel more comfortable on a coach, which is also more cheap and you're at least guaranteed a seat, and there's arguably more room on a coach than on a crowded train.
But just even thinking of getting on a busy tube or London bus has me literally horripilating in dread and worry.
I've always immersed myself in my own world with headphones and/or a book - great tip! - and that does help, but not when it's standing room only.
Anyway I now have a mental image of a hellscape of a passenger train full of the likes of editor and Pickman's model terrifyingly multiplied like in that scene in Being John Malkovich, which is making me chuckle rather than panic

Spoiler: THAT SCENE IF YOU DUNNO WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT

Thanks

Shame about the trains - sounds very uncomfortable. I haven't been on a tube in years (not keen even before the pandemic) and as I'm not working I have the luxury to travel at quiet times and just not bother going out on strike days.

Sorry about the hellscape image - but glad it made you chuckle. Try imagining urbs from a SLD meet?

buscador suggests if you are ok in crowds at a rave - would drugs help?

Maybe coaches are a better way forward. Good Luck x

 

[Orang Utan]

Thanks

Shame about the trains - sounds very uncomfortable. I haven't been on a tube in years (not keen even before the pandemic) and as I'm not working I have the luxury to travel at quiet times and just not bother going out on strike days.

Sorry about the hellscape image - but glad it made you chuckle. Try imagining urbs from a SLD meet?

buscador suggests if you are ok in crowds at a rave - would drugs help?

Maybe coaches are a better way forward. Good Luck x

Hehe drugs do help. Which is why I’m always on them
Hi to buscador - miss you guys x