Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

And for sure I pay attention to those percentage positive numbers, even though I only get a chance to really look properly once a week via the weekly PHE surveillance report, and there is lag.

The picture seems clear enough to me, percentage positives rose notably and so we can be pretty confident that increased testing has not created the rising cases picture on its own.


From https://assets.publishing.service.g...eekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_40.pdf

 

[teuchter]

If we're looking for evidence of more subtle things like a flattening of the curve though, then changes in the number of tests being carried out could quite easily disguise this, or make it look like it was happening when it wasn't actually.

 

[purenarcotic]

I just read an article in the local newspaper saying that less than half the population would get vaccinated when / if we get one. I appreciate in the beginning we want to prioritise certain groups, but why would you then not do everyone else after? I thought you needed something like 80% of the population vaccinated for there to be herd immunity. Would it be to do with global availability?

This is the article (it’s not the best paper so could be bollocks):

Covid vaccine could go to only half of UK - with 10 groups given priority

The head of the UK coronavirus vaccine taskforce Kate Bingham told the Financial Times that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against Covid-19

www.birminghammail.co.uk

 

[elbows]

If we're looking for evidence of more subtle things like a flattening of the curve though, then changes in the number of tests being carried out could quite easily disguise this, or make it look like it was happening when it wasn't actually.

Sure in theory, which is why its good to check that data from time to time. But I dont think we have test number fluctuations to the extent that it would significantly alter the picture on its own, not at this stage anyway.

If really significant rationing of tests kicked in, eg by changing the criteria for who can have a test, then we could quickly end up in another situation where it isnt really appropriate to directly compare the number of positive tests before and after the change, just like we cannot fairly compare the number of positives in the first months with the later numbers that came once testing was opened up for the general public.

My own approach to monitoring for signs of curve flattening is to err on the side of waiting for more complete data, introducing a weeks lag to my impression of the situation, rather than relying on daily numbers.

 

[quimcunx]

I just read an article in the local newspaper saying that less than half the population would get vaccinated when / if we get one. I appreciate in the beginning we want to prioritise certain groups, but why would you then not do everyone else after? I thought you needed something like 80% of the population vaccinated for there to be herd immunity. Would it be to do with global availability?

This is the article (it’s not the best paper so could be bollocks):

Covid vaccine could go to only half of UK - with 10 groups given priority

The head of the UK coronavirus vaccine taskforce Kate Bingham told the Financial Times that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against Covid-19

www.birminghammail.co.uk

It was in the FT. It's one thing to prioritise who gets it first but that's not what they're saying. Don't want to spend more money on poor people. Keep the older voters alive, do the minimum to protect others at higher risk, rich people will pay to get it, and fuck the rest of you. Maybe once those that can pay privately do so it will reach 80%? Or they're hoping for herd immunity again but considering quarantine, self-isolation, time off work, people continuing to WFH to avoid it, and how many people get long covid it will be another of their ruthlessly incompetent false economies.

 

[two sheds]

Its important to check percentage positive in order to eliminate the arguments of those who would claim that more positive results is just because of more testing.

So far I'd say that all around the world when the numbers go in a direction that cause this sort of attention, the percentage positives at those times in those places confirm that its not just a result of more testing, and that a real notable rise in infections is behind it.

Therefore I see nothing wrong with the focus on number of positive tests as a slightly simplistic but very useful guide. Just so long as some people keep an eye on percentage positives and tell everyone if something important shows up in that side of the data.

Somewhat peripheral but have you seen this Atlantic article, elbows?

Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

Yeah, although good news is HIV is killing far fewer people than it used to. However, the pandemic has interrupted provision of aids drugs and treatments for other diseases :( Laura Spinney's book on Spanish flu talks about how the flu had a knock on effect on worsening the effects of other...

www.urban75.net

 

[prunus]

I just read an article in the local newspaper saying that less than half the population would get vaccinated when / if we get one. I appreciate in the beginning we want to prioritise certain groups, but why would you then not do everyone else after? I thought you needed something like 80% of the population vaccinated for there to be herd immunity. Would it be to do with global availability?

This is the article (it’s not the best paper so could be bollocks):

Covid vaccine could go to only half of UK - with 10 groups given priority

The head of the UK coronavirus vaccine taskforce Kate Bingham told the Financial Times that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against Covid-19

www.birminghammail.co.uk

It’s not bollocks, it’s reporting an interview published in the FT today.

It’s a genius idea - save money by allowing all the fit healthy people under 50 get mild illness, leading to potentially life-long heart and other problems, which will definitely be cheaper to deal with than vaccinating them. Plus this way we can keep a reservoir of the virus going forever, so it can carry on happening. Plus probably making us an international pariah, which will stop all those disease-free foreigners coming here with their ‘immune responses’ and ‘thought-through healthcare programs.’

 

[elbows]

Its inevitable that vaccination programmes will prioritise certain groups to start with.

Whether it is reasonable to maintain that stance forever will in large part come down to how long the vaccine confers immunity. If it turns out to be something that needs to be given quite often then it may be hard to ever overcome the logistical challenges of a whole-population vaccination programme for dealing with this virus, and then I will be more inclined to think the 50+ cutoff more reasonable as a permanent state of affairs.

 

[Cid]

The FT article...

Less than half UK population to receive coronavirus vaccine, says task force head | Free to read

PM warns of ‘bumpy’ winter while data ‘issue’ blamed for 16,000-case backlog pushing numbers to record high

www.ft.com

Maybe elbows will drill down into vaccine types and efficacy. I should be at work... It sounds like this is a specific vaccine which provides partial protection from the effects.

Er... also:

Ms Bingham, who is also managing partner at fund manager SV Health Investors

 

[Badgers]

Going well then...

 

[Orang Utan]

Shocking:

 

[Cid]

Can someone copy the content of the FT article? I've gone paywalled. Had thought their coronavirus content was paywall-free.

e2a: no, am just an idiot, the link doesn't go to the article. Can't work out how to link it, easy to google anyway.

 

[quimcunx]

 

[Cid]

Shocking:

Isn't it a basic tenet of data geeks that anyone using excel for proper databases is, essentially, a n00b and an idiot?

 

[existentialist]

Isn't it a basic tenet of data geeks that anyone using excel for proper databases is, essentially, a n00b and an idiot?

It should be a basic tenet of every right-thinking human being.

 

[Orang Utan]

Isn't it a basic tenet of data geeks that anyone using excel for proper databases is, essentially, a n00b and an idiot?

 

[prunus]

Isn't it a basic tenet of data geeks that anyone using excel for proper databases is, essentially, a n00b and an idiot?

Harsh, but fair. A fair amount of my work used to be setting up proper databases for small companies that were still balancing their entire edifice on a rickety old excel spreadsheet that was originally written by someone who left 6 years ago and had been as hoc ‘improved’ since by whoever was around that had or at least thought they had excel skills. Excel makes it terrifyingly easy to fuck up in any number of ways. It should never be used for anything critical unless at the very least it is done in parallel by two independent workbooks written by two different people from first principles. And even then some of excel’s kooky attempts at floating point arithmetic can still bite you in the arse.

P.S. and don’t get me started on data typing...

 

[elbows]

Somewhat peripheral but have you seen this Atlantic article, elbows?

Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

Yeah, although good news is HIV is killing far fewer people than it used to. However, the pandemic has interrupted provision of aids drugs and treatments for other diseases :( Laura Spinney's book on Spanish flu talks about how the flu had a knock on effect on worsening the effects of other...

www.urban75.net

Cheers for bringing it to my attention. Ive read some of it but I skimmed a fair chunk.

I dont think that in practice there is actually so much difference in how you would try to deal with a pandemic that was largely spread by super spreading events and one that was driven more by generalised transmission. It makes contact tracing even more important, but we already knew how important that aspect was. And we cant predict who will be a superspreader, and the scenarios in which these superspreading events can occur involve the same risk factors as any other sort of spread.

So I dont think I need to have a firm answer in my mind in regards how much the epidemic waves are driven by superspreaders, in order to determine where the focus should be.

Timely testing and test result delivery, isolation, contact tracing. Incentivise people to do the right thing. Pay a lot of attention to ventilation. Wear masks. Avoid crowding. Put a lot of effort into infection control in hospitals and care homes. Reduce contacts between households. Only have pubs and restaurants open during periods of minimal community spread, and shut them as soon as contact tracing linked to pubs etc shows there is a problem. Or dont open them in the first place.

Makes little difference to the long-term lessons either. Which involve population obesity, population density, pollution, poverty & housing, work environment and healthcare capacity.

 

[elbows]

Oh and there are probably some other long term lessons involving attitudes and practicalities of education and not conflating it with childcare. But I dont think I'll be able to get into that properly until my head is clear of the immediate pandemic issues.

 

[two sheds]

Cheers for bringing it to my attention. Ive read some of it but I skimmed a fair chunk.

I dont think that in practice there is actually so much difference in how you would try to deal with a pandemic that was largely spread by super spreading events and one that was driven more by generalised transmission. It makes contact tracing even more important, but we already knew how important that aspect was. And we cant predict who will be a superspreader, and the scenarios in which these superspreading events can occur involve the same risk factors as any other sort of spread.

So I dont think I need to have a firm answer in my mind in regards how much the epidemic waves are driven by superspreaders, in order to determine where the focus should be.

Timely testing and test result delivery, isolation, contact tracing. Incentivise people to do the right thing. Pay a lot of attention to ventilation. Wear masks. Avoid crowding. Put a lot of effort into infection control in hospitals and care homes. Reduce contacts between households. Only have pubs and restaurants open during periods of minimal community spread, and shut them as soon as contact tracing linked to pubs etc shows there is a problem. Or dont open them in the first place.

Makes little difference to the long-term lessons either. Which involve population obesity, population density, pollution, poverty & housing, work environment and healthcare capacity.

Yes fair play. I thought the stress on backwards then forwards test/tracing was interesting, enabling the lower cost test methods. Also the analysis of results in the different countries, but you've studied much more than I have so it was likely not new for you. A good summary of what seems the important factors, though.

 

[MrSki]

 

[Artaxerxes]

Fucking. Idiots.

 

[elbows]

Yes fair play. I thought the stress on backwards then forwards test/tracing was interesting, enabling the lower cost test methods. Also the analysis of results in the different countries, but you've studied much more than I have so it was likely not new for you. A good summary of what seems the important factors, though.

I've not dwelt on those aspects as much as I should because it would probably drive me crazy since the UK establishment show no interest in much of it. For example there is an extremely conservative and controlling attitude towards which sorts of tests have been deemed acceptable in the UK so far, robbing us of various options.

 

[existentialist]

You. Are. Fucking. Joking.

It's like the last 30 years of IT just didn't happen.

Why the fuck did I get out of that business? I could have been making six-digit money a year for vomiting out this kind of old shit...oh yes, I remember, I kept tripping over my conscience.

ETA: I'd quite like to see a source for that claim, though - it's almost too batshit to be believable, and that's saying something...

Found a source, even if it is the spit Daily Mail.

Screenshot for them as don't want to get their broadband dirty:

And a link for them as isn't proud: Blame game after 16,000 Covid cases missed due to Excel glitch

I'm quite looking forward to The Register getting onto this...

 

[quimcunx]

Yebbut, you can't expect them to fork out for a proper database with their teeny tiny covid contract budget! Our database costs several thousand pounds a year for a small organisation. Stop being so mean to Serco.

 

[Raheem]

Fucking. Idiots.

Nah. Quote for tailor-made data handling solutions, use Excel. There's a strong track record of that type of thing not mattering if you're a private sector government contractor.

 

[existentialist]

Yebbut, you can't expect them to fork out for a proper database with their teeny tiny covid contract budget! Our database costs several thousand pounds a year for a small organisation. Stop being so mean to Serco.

I have wondered more than once what would have happened if a visionary government had done - a little as IBM did with bits of Linux - something like throw this out there as an open source project, judiciously funded (and certainly not on the scale that Serco et al have been featherbedded). I suspect that a lot would have happened pretty bloody fast.

Ah, but I said "visionary"

 

[MrSki]

Yebbut, you can't expect them to fork out for a proper database with their teeny tiny covid contract budget! Our database costs several thousand pounds a year for a small organisation. Stop being so mean to Serco.

Yeah the 12 billion wouldn't stretch to database software.

 

[prunus]

You. Are. Fucking. Joking.

It's like the last 30 years of IT just didn't happen.

Why the fuck did I get out of that business? I could have been making six-digit money a year for vomiting out this kind of old shit...oh yes, I remember, I kept tripping over my conscience.

ETA: I'd quite like to see a source for that claim, though - it's almost too batshit to be believable, and that's saying something...

Found a source, even if it is the spit Daily Mail.

Screenshot for them as don't want to get their broadband dirty:
View attachment 233028
And a link for them as isn't proud: Blame game after 16,000 Covid cases missed due to Excel glitch

I'm quite looking forward to The Register getting onto this...

They weren’t using columns for the records were they....? Surely not.

 

[maomao]

So was it actually Serco or PHE that fucked it? Or is it an agreed format for communication between the two?