Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

OMFG...

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They may not have a breakdown of how many cases should have been reported on an earlier day, but we can still compare the positive cases by specimin date rather than reporting date. And since I have the dashboard data fro the previous day because I happened to grab it then, I can compare the two.

I cannot make the data match up perfectly, and there are always some delays between test specimen date and reporting date anyway, even without this latest technical problem. So a fair bit of what is shown in green is the normal lag thats seen all the time anyway.

For me there are questions that will only be answered in the coming days when we see what happens as more of this picture is filled in. Its all about trajectory for me, so I am looking to see whether the trajectory now shown for September 21st->24th carries on.

So the graph below shows the positive cases by specimen date that I got off the dashboard on Friday, and the green is the difference between the numbers reported on the dashboard then and the numbers as they stand after the Saturday update.

 

[two sheds]

True. I was just working through the ways she could have got home without taking the train.

bicycle - much underrated form of transport

 

[elbows]

I feel I should stick this here for future reference.

Mr Johnson also stood by the Eat Out to Help Out restaurant discount introduced in August, which some critics have said added to the rise in coronavirus cases in September.

"In so far as that scheme may have helped to spread the virus then obviously we need to counteract that and we need to counteract that with the discipline and the measures that we're proposing," he said.

Covid: Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

Boris Johnson says there is "hope" in fighting the virus, but it could be "a very tough winter".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Chilli.s]

Eat Out to Help Spread About

who would have guessed

 

[two sheds]

Get your Mates - Eat Out - Spread it About

 

[maomao]

bicycle - much underrated form of transport

A septegenarian friend of my mother did London to Edinburgh a couple of years ago. Took him a week or two though. And he didn't have Covid.

 

[elbows]

High positivity rate in Scotland.

Scotland's deputy first minister has warned further restrictions may be introduced to combat the spread of coronavirus.

John Swinney said the "rising prevalence" of the virus in Scotland was a "cause for for concern".

People would be given as much notice as possible of any new rules, he added.

The latest statistics show there were 758 new cases of Covid reported in the last 24 hours - 13.3% of newly tested individuals.

Covid in Scotland: Number of virus cases rises by 758

The deputy first minister says further restrictions are possible as another 758 people test positive in Scotland.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[MrSki]

So today's figures are delayed again & according to Peston another 'stash' of positive results have been found dating back up to 24/9. Where have they been stashing them?

 

[frogwoman]

Down the back of the sofa with a half empty packet of fags, some ancient 10ps, a dog biscuit etc

 

[elbows]

So today's figures are delayed again & according to Peston another 'stash' of positive results have been found dating back up to 24/9. Where have they been stashing them?

I started the graph that I stuck in the thread last night partly because they said at the time that there were more backlogged results to come. I shall update it when the data is available.

 

[existentialist]

So today's figures are delayed again & according to Peston another 'stash' of positive results have been found dating back up to 24/9. Where have they been stashing them?

This is more transparent than Trump's doctor.

Do they really think they have more to gain from delaying bad news than they have to lose from being caught lying again...oh, hang on.

 

[killer b]

Did this article with the latest figures from the CSS / Zoe app get posted? They suggest the rate of infection slowing right down over the last week:

COVID cases flattening according to COVID Symptom Study Infection Survey

According to the COVID Symptom Study (CSS) UK Infection Survey figures, there are currently, 19,777 daily new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 27 September suggesting that COVID-19 cases in the UK are flattening off.

covid.joinzoe.com

 

[zora]

Ugh, not feeling too good about the autumnal weather. This weekend seems like a real sign of things to come:
Went for my most "enclosed" pub visit so far (pub terrace covered in a sort of walled gazebo, but it was plenty cold when the heater wasn't on so seemed outdoorsy enough.)

Took a short cab journey (because next bus was 50 mins later, and it was raining soooo heavily that walking wasn't appealing.) Cab had a very sophisticated separation between driver and passenger, but windows were closed and it had all nicely steamed up...

Took the bus home from work tonight, again because of the rain, and it got atrociously busy. As far as I could see, every seat upstairs was taken, and I counted 20 people downstairs. I guess the driver wanted to be nice and not let people stand in the rain, but jeez. In three and a half months since going back to work, I have only taken the bus 4-5 times, always walked or cycled otherwise, but it could get pretty cold and wet if I want to carry that on - and i have clearly folded at the first hurdle.

But yeah, I am thinking, multiply my weather-driven behaviour change by the entire population (or at least very many people), and I can't see it going well, tbh.

 

[editor]

Possible new measures

A new three-tier lockdown system is being planned for England, with leaked government documents paving the way for potential harsher restrictions including the closure of pubs and a ban on all social contact outside of household groups.

The draft traffic-light-style plan, seen by the Guardian, is designed to simplify the current patchwork of localised restrictions, which apply to about a quarter of the UK. It also reveals tougher measures that could be imposed by the government locally or nationally if Covid cases are not brought under control.


Called the “Covid-19 Proposed Social Distancing Framework” and dated 30 September, it has not yet been signed off by No 10 and measures could still be watered down.

Alert level 3 – the most serious – contains tougher measures than any seen so far in local lockdowns since the start of the pandemic. They include:

• Closure of hospitality and leisure businesses.
• No social contact outside your household in any setting.
• Restrictions on overnight stays away from home.
• No organised non-professional sports permitted or other communal hobby groups and activities, such as social clubs in community centres.
• Places of worship can remain open.

Schools are not mentioned in the draft. A government source said this was because Boris Johnson had made clear that classroom closures would be a last resort and the reopening of schools was considered within Whitehall to have been a relative success.

Leak reveals possible harsher three-tier England Covid plan

Exclusive: government documents suggest potential pub closures and stricter social contact rules

www.theguardian.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

The cock-up continues, resulting in 22,961 new cases being reported today.

 

[Supine]

The cock-up continues, resulting in 22,961 new cases being reported today.

Probably took them a bit of time to re-scale the Y axis on their graph

 

[TopCat]

The cock-up continues, resulting in 22,961 new cases being reported today.

Fucking hell.

 

[tommers]

Fuck.

 

[magneze]

Wtf

 

[weepiper]

When a professor of global public health can't interpret the official numbers we're probably not in a good place.

 

[existentialist]

Is that a backlogged number? Or a likely actual daily count?

ETA: Ah. I was in good company.

 

[brogdale]

Is that a backlogged number? Or a likely actual daily count?

ETA: Ah. I was in good company.

about 8k 'new' today and a further 15k of 'lost results' from over the last week or so.

Fuck knows where that leaves us...these clowns are fucking useless.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Surely if they "found" the backlog they would know when the numbers corresponded to, rather than just spaffing them all over tomorrow's headlines

 

[brogdale]

Whichever way you look at this, it ain't great.
Basically those trying to monitor this on the ground have obviously been given significant underestimates for the last week.

 

[brogdale]

Surely if they "found" the backlog they would know when the numbers corresponded to, rather than just spaffing them all over tomorrow's headlines

You'd think

 

[brogdale]

So all that shit from Gove amplified by the state broadcaster about things levelling out...turns out to be down to their privatised meltdown of cack.

 

[existentialist]

Whichever way you look at this, it ain't great.
Basically those trying to monitor this on the ground have obviously been given significant underestimates for the last week.

View attachment 232986

Is there any way that isn't suss?

 

[Sue]

Has anyone actually got any idea what the fuck is going on..?

 

[PD58]

Has anyone actually got any idea what the fuck is going on..?

The virus is spreading faster than the government would like to admit, so data is being manipulated...

 

[brogdale]

Worse still, although those testing +ive were told, there was no track & trace for the 20k ish 'lost' results: