Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Artaxerxes]

Sweden was modelled taking its demographic into account. Without lockdown and with its demographic Sweden was predicted to have 100,000 deaths or even more. It had less than 7,000.

Comparing it to its neighbours Is irrelevant. The models were crazily wrong and by a massive factor.

My

Death estimates were all over the place and still are.

New US model predicts much higher Covid-19 death toll in UK. But British scientists are skeptical

British scientists have pushed back against an influential new coronavirus model that predicts the UK will be the worst-hit European country, with a death toll from Covid-19 possibly much higher than previously thought.

edition.cnn.com

We were meant to have 30'000 deaths according to one model but missed the high estimate of 60'000 according to another.

With a new disease like this your always going to see bad figures for estimated deaths because there is no baseline.

 

[SlideshowBob]

In Sweden they estimate only a maximum of 20 or 30 percent of people have had it.

Seems like government initially pursuing herd immunity underestimated how long it would take to spread among the general population.

 

[brogdale]

Pandemic capitalism:

 

[elbows]

Yeah Hancock recently blamed tests being free as one of the reasons for increased demand. Market forces, market farces.

 

[xenon]

The government can choose to manage these things by pursuing economic models that can sustain themselves during a public health crisis, and by putting adequate mental health provisions in place to support people who are going to struggle. If they refuse to do that then it's their fault, not the fault of people arguing in favour of public safety.

be fair there’s only so much that can be done to mitigate that. Just being shut up in doors, it’s going to lead a lot of mental strife. And you can’t mitigate against all of it.
Not that I am lining up with Mr retro and his Swedish facts. I mean this should be fairly easy to prove. Deaths per million, population density accounted for. But they still don’t seem to be that favourable

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sweden was modelled taking its demographic into account. Without lockdown and with its demographic Sweden was predicted to have 100,000 deaths or even more. It had less than 7,000.

Comparing it to its neighbours Is irrelevant. The models were crazily wrong and by a massive factor.

In this case comparting Sweden to its neighbours is relevant, compared to the irrelevant of comparing outcome to modeling forecasts, due to the fact the former is based on facts & real numbers, whereas the latter was nothing more than a guesstimate, that ended-up being wrong.

 

[xenon]

i’m saying this just once more. My posts aren’t always incoherent misquoted jumbles of nonsense because I have been to the pub, I am home now by the way. It’s because this web site is really fucking shit on the phone. Things don’t work like they used to.

 

[frogwoman]

We've been in a mental health crisis for years. Lost several mates to suicide or drug overdoses the last few years I kinda want people to remember this doesn't stop being an issue because we're 'back to normal'

 

[sheothebudworths]

be fair there’s only so much that can be done to mitigate that. Just being shut up in doors, it’s going to lead a lot of mental strife. And you can’t mitigate against all of it.
Not that I am lining up with Mr retro and his Swedish facts. I mean this should be fairly easy to prove. Deaths per million, population density accounted for. But they still don’t seem to be that favourable

It would've helped if all of those services (along with drug and alcohol services, dv services and refuges and obvs the NHS itself) hadn't already been driven into the floor, too.

 

[frogwoman]

Otherwise it's all a bit 'but what about all the mental health issues that I don't give a shit about either'

 

[elbows]

I'm still mucking around with all that NHS England data I linked to earlier.

For the period 19th March through to September 2nd, this particular data has 88,765 inpatients diagnosed with Covid-19. 62,705 of those were before May began.

 

[frogwoman]

I'm still mucking around with all that NHS England data I linked to earlier.

For the period 19th March through to September 2nd, this particular data has 88,765 inpatients diagnosed with Covid-19. 62,705 of those were before May began.

Presumably some of these have been discharged?

 

[sheothebudworths]

Pandemic capitalism:

View attachment 231265

So - they ARE going to spunk £100 billion up the wall (I hoped that was just some feverish, long-covid, Tory wet dream he was blurting out) - but it won't be free and the idea is so that people can go to the theatre or to conferences? Published/pursued today, too?! Wtf?! Erm, still a no thanks from me, then - the greedy, entitled, deluded, evil cunts.

 

[elbows]

Presumably some of these have been discharged?

Yeah thats the number of people diagnosed each day over that entire period, added up by me. Lots of them died and lots of them recovered. I would use other data such as that on the official dashboard in order to see the latest picture, since this per hospital trust data I have been using is only released once a month.

 

[elbows]

So - they ARE going to spunk £100 billion up the wall (I hoped that was just some feverish, long-covid, Tory wet dream he was blurting out) - but it won't be free and the idea is so that people can go to the theatre or to conferences? Published/pursued today, too?! Wtf?! Erm, still a no thanks from me, then - the greedy, entitled, deluded, evil cunts.

Maybe they will combine it with the post-franchise rail company picture, catch a train and get a free test as part of your ticket price.

 

[Supine]

Maybe they will combine it with the post-franchise rail company picture, catch a train and get a free test as part of your ticket price.

Nah, if you want to get a train you must pay ten quid for a test. It's your own fault if you don't have a limo.

 

[killer b]

It would've helped if all of those services (along with drug and alcohol services, dv services and refuges and obvs the NHS itself) hadn't already been driven into the floor, too.

All already broken. Plus it was a mixed picture anyway - For plenty of people lockdown was a respite.

 

[elbows]

Once again, Nick Triggle alert, since his analysis lurks in this article:

Covid: UK coronavirus alert level moving to 4

The move, ahead of a statement from the PM, reflects that transmission is "high or rising exponentially".

www.bbc.co.uk

The move to level 4 should not come as a surprise given the warning from the UK's two most senior pandemic advisers this morning.

Infections are rising - although some experts question whether the situation is as dire as Prof Chris Witty and Sir Patrick Vallance set out when they raised the prospect of 50,000 cases a day by mid-October.

Cases were always expected to increase at this time of year when respiratory viruses tend to circulate more coupled with the continued re-opening of society.

Certainly the trajectory of countries like France and Spain is not as sharp as the worst-case scenario put forward.

But it is clear the government wants to act early this time - one of the big criticisms is that they were slow to introduce lockdown in March, which resulted in more deaths.

He's got some nerve when he makes that first point and that last point given his preferred stance and analysis of recent days that downplayed the chances of strong new measures.

Some experts, yeah we know about those experts, you quote them often enough and indulge in their spin.

 

[HalloweenJack]

London calling...
As part of my preparation for Lockdown 2, can anyone point me in the direction of admissions figure for London Hospitals in the last 2 quarters?

I have read of the exponentials, but cant locate the raw data.

 

[frogwoman]

Bekräftade fall av covid-19 i Sverige

Senaste uppdateringarna om utbrottet av coronavirussjukdom (covid-19). Sidan uppdateras dagligen med antal fall kl. 14:00 eller när statistiken är sammanställd.

www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se

Here is Swedens official covid stats for anyone interested. I haven't looked through it properly tho. But maybe someone cleverer than me could.

 

[elbows]

London calling...
As part of my preparation for Lockdown 2, can anyone point me in the direction of admissions figure for London Hospitals in the last 2 quarters?

I have read of the exponentials, but cant locate the raw data.

Individual hospital trusts or London as a whole?

You can get London admissions from this page, just click on the Data tab to see numbers rather than the graph, and then use the download button top right of each data pane if you want the data as a file.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Per hospital trust data I dont have access to apart from the monthly report, which is missing most of September. I think people doing certain jobs can get access to per hospital/per trust data that is updated regularly but I dont have any access to such NHS etc internal data systems.

 

[crossthebreeze]

Another demonstration regarding pressures that dont go away even if you dodge lockdown.

NHS England number of staff absent due to Covid-19, either because of illness or self-isolation.

Graphed using a very large set of data available at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

I dont know the exact details about the August dropoff, whether its a reporting methodology change or whether a load of hospitals arent included in the later data. Could be another variation of the 28 days change for all I know.

View attachment 231263

Presumably the August drop-off is because it included people who were shielding and unable to work from home, but risk assessed as being able to return to work once shielding was over? Shielding (and entitlement to SSP for shielding) ended on 1st August.

 

[Cloo]

So - they ARE going to spunk £100 billion up the wall (I hoped that was just some feverish, long-covid, Tory wet dream he was blurting out) - but it won't be free and the idea is so that people can go to the theatre or to conferences? Published/pursued today, too?! Wtf?! Erm, still a no thanks from me, then - the greedy, entitled, deluded, evil cunts.

If they are going to spend that money, then spend it on weekly testing in schools so they can have the same protection and continuity as Eton students.

Oh hang on, they don't want anyone not paying to have the same as Eton students.

 

[Spandex]

Pandemic capitalism:

View attachment 231265

Wait. What? Rewind a minute.

I thought the point of Project Unicorn was that 10 million tests would be available every day so that the whole country could be tested in a week, those who are positive isolated and the whole shitshow is over in weeks. If it's just so rich folk can go to business conferences and the theater why will they need 10 million tests per day? It turns the whole thing into the world's biggest business start up grant. Or more like the world's biggest embezzlement opportunity for friends and family of Tory MPs.

Has Baroness Harding been on the sherry?

 

[MrSki]

All bars & pubs in England to shut at 10pm from Thursday.

 

[MrSki]

So whose house are we going back to?

 

[magneze]

Johnson to address the nation 8pm tomorrow. Get your violins out.

 

[Artaxerxes]

So whose house are we going back to?

I'm pretty munted on the pre-pub drinks so never left mine.

 

[magneze]

Stop going back to the office and work from home again apparently. Why were people told to go to the office. Fucking twats.

 

[teuchter]

Michael Kill, chief executive of the Night-Time Industries Association, said the announcement was "yet another devastating blow" and warned it would result in a "surge of unregulated events and house parties".

Possibly an unfortunate name to have as chief exec of the NTIA at this moment in history.