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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Roadkill said:
That's an important point. We're often sold this idea of a trade-off between covid and 'the economy,' but it's nowhere near that straightforward. The pubs, restaurants etc were always going to take a big hit, lockdown or no, simply because people wouldn't take the risk of going to them. It probably does no more damage to lock down and support them through it than just to let the virus run its course. Moreover, one lesson people have taken from the 1918 pandemic, and which in some places seems to have been borne out by experience of this one, is that the best way to minimise the damage is to lock down early and hard, because that way you can return to something like normal more quickly.
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Indeed, once you've got any sort of situation that's going to significantly hit economic activity then a downturn is inevitable irrespective of whether you take deliberate actions which ensure it'll happen. Sweden may see their economy harmed slightly less than some of their nearby neighbours, but then real questions have to be asked whether it was worth their GDP falling by a little by less if they ended up with four times as many deaths as, say, Norway or Finland.
 
frogwoman said:
I totally agree bimble but I don't think India is a good example of why its best not to do very much. India has catastrophically mishandled the pandemic from start to finish imo, the lockdown was less about public health than a display of power (he had for some weeks been facing protests by political opponents before that) migrant workers were forced to walk home to their villages with a few hours notice. They've handled the reopening equally catastrophically imo, just acting like everything 8 fine and 'the recovery rate is the best in the world' and people who contracted covid have been stigmatised leading to people hiding their symptoms etc. There's also no help for people who have lost their jobs etc, people are literally starving . It's a fuck up all round :(
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bimble
 
Mr Retro said:
On July 1st, the day the pubs reopened there were 90 deaths in England. Today there are 9 and people want to close them again. Science and reason has no place in this debate it seems.
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Hi. Pay me to like your posts. The first one I like you only have to pay 1 penny. And
Mr Retro said:
I’d like to see a breakdown of the cases bimble, especially how many of those are symptomatic, how many go on to be hospitalIsed, other health issues etc etc

I’m not really interested in being here. I’ve just given my opinion. I believe the lockdown will go on to kill far more people than coronavirus ever will
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What is it people will be dying of because of lockdown?
 
Regarding a slight variation of the 'lockdown didnt do much' attitude, there is the version where the lockdown failure was because of the dreadful timing, that it was so late that it didnt have time to do anything because it missed the period where it could really have suppressed the wave of death.

Clearly the timing and form of lockdown done in the UK did not avoid tens of thousands of deaths, it was done late. Too late for those deaths, but was it really too late to make a difference to deaths at any subsequent point? Did it not save some people from that fate later on?

Plus if you believe that stuff then its hardly a reason not to bother next time. Its a reason to act sooner next time.
 
Artaxerxes said:
This graph from the ft suggests that maybe the reason Sweden has less of a spike is or second wave is because it's already swept through a good chunk of the country.

www.ft.com

Sweden’s Covid-19 experiment holds a worldwide warning

Do not jump to conclusions about lockdowns before all the data is in and analysed
www.ft.com www.ft.com

View attachment 231247


And again there's the completely different land use patterns and population size. I can post those maps but see no point. 10 million Vs 70 million and the UK in much denser clusters.
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The UK briefing today suggested I think 8% of the population carry antibodies, which I take to mean that herd immunity is bollocks, but also brings into question the idea that everyone has already had it.
 
elbows said:
Regarding a slight variation of the 'lockdown didnt do much' attitude, there is the version where the lockdown failure was because of the dreadful timing, that it was so late that it didnt have time to do anything because it missed the period where it could really have suppressed the wave of death.

Clearly the timing and form of lockdown done in the UK did not avoid tens of thousands of deaths, it was done late. Too late for those deaths, but was it really too late to make a difference to deaths at any subsequent point? Did it not save some people from that fate later on?

Plus if you believe that stuff then its hardly a reason not to bother next time. Its a reason to act sooner next time.
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Especially going into winter rather than coming out of it.
 
SlideshowBob said:
Indeed, once you've got any sort of situation that's going to significantly hit economic activity then a downturn is inevitable irrespective of whether you take deliberate actions which ensure it'll happen. Sweden may see their economy harmed slightly less than some of their nearby neighbours, but then real questions have to be asked whether it was worth their GDP falling by a little by less if they ended up with four times as many deaths as, say, Norway or Finland.
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Around ten times more deaths than Norway & Finland.
 
mauvais said:
The UK briefing today suggested I think 8% of the population carry antibodies, which I take to mean that herd immunity is bollocks, but also brings into question the idea that everyone has already had it.
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Why do people keep saying that everyone has had it? Sunetra Gupta was saying that back in March lol.
 
killer b said:
it's still a very popular idea tbf - I know a load of people who think it should have been left to let rip in march and we'd be fine by now.
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That was never going to happen though, even if Johnson & Co had stuck to their shity plan A for even longer than they did.

Because all the way through in the various government expert documents, its clear that the point the likes of Whitty, Vallance and pretty much the entire government used to emphasise most early on was the utterly dominant number 1 angle behind the scenes too. It was all about NHS capacity and not having that and other vital bits of UK infrastructure etc buckle under the sheer size of the pandemic wave.

Their original plan was double-fucked because they also totally fucked up the timing as well as the measures, but even that original plan would have lumbered into heavy, draconian measures once the hospital data showed a certain stage had been reached. And that wouldnt have been long at all after what actually happened with scrapping plan A & its timing.

In this respect it doesnt even matter what the population thought of the idea of putting up with so many deaths, so a lot of these pandemic idiots with their dangerous ideas stood no chance of being listened to eventually, even if they had won the initial argument on the week of March 9th which they very much lost.

What sort of government is going to be able to sit there and watch Covid-19 hospital admissions rise from 603 in a day on 20th March to over 3000 a day on April 2nd without slamming on the brakes? Only one that governs a country that has invested a decent amount of its resources over all the recent decades into a wonderful hospital system which has loads and loads of spare capacity and wiggle room. And that certainly wouldnt include our country, no matter which government was in power when the pandemic hit.
 
Mr Retro said:
Really?

I haven’t followed the thread really but was surprised flicking through at the amount of support for the lockdowns and face masks etc. Thought Urban 75 would be much more questioning. It’s really just an echo chamber here isn’t it?
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It's not an echo chamber, people are following the science & the facts.

You by your our admission haven't been following the thread, and decided to wander in, posting fact free nonsense, and largely ignoring the replies.

I am struggling to work out if you are trolling, or just thick as shit.
 
Mr Retro said:
I’m not playing a persecuted victim, don’t make things up. I’ve given my opinion and I hope it’s right.
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You are playing the victim when you start going on about echo chambers and the like. As for your opinion, you're entitled to hold it and others are entitled to challenge it, and if you put it out there then that's what you must expect to happen. That's not because this is an echo chamber or anything of the sort: it's because people think you're wrong. They've given a series of reasons why they think you're wrong. Now, can you answer them reasonably, or are you just going to carry on whining?
 
Let’s meet back here in a month or so and see where we are. If deaths are above what would normally by associated with the approaching winter season I’ll admit I was wrong. When I’m right I’ll still be nice to youse 👍

I hope with all my heart I’m right
 
Mr Retro said:
Really?

I haven’t followed the thread really but was surprised flicking through at the amount of support for the lockdowns and face masks etc. Thought Urban 75 would be much more questioning. It’s really just an echo chamber here isn’t it?
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I know what I think. You seem to think that lockdown is more deadly than covid. I'm questioning you. So explain your reasoning.
 
There's also the example of the Czech Republic which didn't impose a full lockdown and shops remained open throughout (albeit with takeaways service only), groups of up to 10 people and social visits were allowed, they drove cases down to a low level and it is now spiking again :(
 
Mr Retro said:
Let’s meet back here in a month or so and see where we are. If deaths are above what would normally by associated with the approaching winter season I’ll admit I was wrong. When I’m right I’ll still be nice to youse 👍

I hope with all my heart I’m right
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Your scenario and beliefs wont atually be tested though will they, because the government will impose new measures and so you will not get a look at the unmitigated pandemic 2nd wave death toll.
 
Mr Retro said:
Really?

I haven’t followed the thread really but was surprised flicking through at the amount of support for the lockdowns and face masks etc. Thought Urban 75 would be much more questioning. It’s really just an echo chamber here isn’t it?
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Site something, not just reckons. Twitter don’t count.
 
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