Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes, although I've been inoculated against things like measles and cv wasn't in cornwall (although just on the cusp) last time I travelled on it.

I wonder how many people would catch the bus if they were showing symptoms - I certainly wouldn't, nor a taxi nor a lft with a friend (I presume it'd have to be an ambulance?) but as you say nurses and also patients would use it and with ppe being as it is in the UK I'd be somewhat concerned at leakage.

Wear a mask, sit as far from everyone as possible, and if you can, sit next to and open a window. (For you, that is. I agree with you about people showing symptoms. No way I would ever get on public transport if I suspected I might have it.)

There is an interview on one of the threads here with one of the South Korean doctors in charge of SK's c19 response, so not a bad person to ask, and he describes how you can catch it from aerosol rather than droplets only in certain conditions. Referring specifically to the church gathering in SK that caused a mass infection, he described how singing releases a lot more of the virus as aerosol than just talking, but also how it builds up over time in an enclosed, or partly enclosed, environment. (Singing, lots of people close together? Sounds like football matches might be spectator-free for a while. ) You need a certain level in the air to become infected - something like a few hundred thousand viral particles needed to infect you. My suspicion is that this is exactly what happened in crowded London buses pre-lockdown, building up over time with lots of infected passengers and the drivers catching it from breathing that infected air over a long period. We need loads more information, basically, cos in a bus with, say, 10 people and its windows open, the chance of aerosol infection may be effectively zero. Lots about that we need to know.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Who had Neil Gaiman getting a caution in the 2020 predictions?

Police Scotland officers have spoken to the writer Neil Gaiman who admitted to travelling more than 11,000 miles from New Zealand to his house in Skye in breach of Scotland’s lockdown rules, PA Media reports. The American Gods and Good Omens author said he travelled to Scotland so he could “isolate easily” after he and his wife Amanda agreed they “needed to give each other some space”. Writing on his blog, he described how he flew “masked and gloved” from Auckland Airport to Los Angeles (LAX) and then on to London before borrowing a friend’s car and driving north to Skye. But only essential journeys are permitted under lockdown rules in Scotland.


A statement from the Scottish police force confirmed the 59-year-old had been given “suitable advice”. Inspector Linda Allan said:



Officers have visited Neil Gaiman and spoken to him about his actions. He has been given suitable advice about essential travel and reminded about the current guidelines in Scotland.

 

[weepiper]

Who had Neil Gaiman getting a caution in the 2020 predictions?

I'd be happier if the locals had panned his windows in and frogmarched him to the bridge tbh.

 

[Pickman's model]

Wear a mask, sit as far from everyone as possible, and if you can, sit next to and open a window.

There is an interview on one of the threads here with one of the South Korean doctors in charge of SK's c19 response, so not a bad person to ask, and he describes how you can catch it from aerosol rather than droplets only in certain conditions. Referring specifically to the church gathering in SK that caused a mass infection, he described how singing releases a lot more of the virus as aerosol than just talking, but also how it builds up over time in an enclosed, or partly enclosed, environment. (Singing, lots of people close together? Sounds like football matches might be spectator-free for a while. ) You need a certain level in the air to become infected - something like a few hundred thousand viral particles needed to infect you. My suspicion is that this is exactly what happened in crowded London buses pre-lockdown, building up over time with lots of infected passengers and the drivers catching it from breathing that infected air over a long period. We need loads more information, basically, cos in a bus with, say, 10 people and its windows open, the chance of aerosol infection may be effectively zero. Lots about that we need to know.

you wouldn't want to sit at the back of the bus where everyone else's exhalations would be driven by the air from the open windows.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

So, vulnerable people are being ordered back to work, and I have just heard that a load of the Academy groups are telling parents who wish to keep kids off for rest of term due to having vulnerable people in the households, that they won’t get any work sent or support from teachers if they do that. This country is a shithole.

Disabled people in UK threatened with sack unless they go back to work

Some employers using government’s coronavirus vulnerable list as condition for paid leave

www.theguardian.com

 

[Artaxerxes]

I'd be happier if the locals had panned his windows in and frogmarched him to the bridge tbh.

Gets worse when you consider that a large number of migrant workers in NZ (and elsewhere) are absolutely fucked and can't just hop on a flight.

Most of the 150 affected staff - based at 14 venues in Auckland and Queenstown - are migrant workers, and are now unable to get new jobs because their visas are invalid. They do not qualify for welfare.

"Although people are saying 'go home' we don't have that option. If I want to get to Argentina right now I'll have to build a boat and sail there," said Camila Rouco Oliva, 28, who was a waitress at White & Wong's in Queenstown.

"And anyway, I've been here two years, this is my home now. Other people have been here five years, they were applying for residency and now that's totally stopped."

 

[CNT36]

Very true. But at any other time any other fucker within a 30 mile radius who is coming down with it and decides to go by bus will be on that bus. Great First Western might suddenly decide to come over all community minded and deep clean the buses every day but somehow I doubt it.

I've just been out delivering for the Pharmacy. Roads seem to be pretty much normal levels, people everywhere and it appears like very little social distancing going on.

 

[miss direct]

FFS, still no clear information about "quarantine".

 

[Sue]

Yes, although I've been inoculated against things like measles and cv wasn't in cornwall (although just on the cusp) last time I travelled on it.

I wonder how many people would catch the bus if they were showing symptoms - I certainly wouldn't, nor a taxi nor a lft with a friend (I presume it'd have to be an ambulance?) but as you say nurses and also patients would use it and with ppe being as it is in the UK I'd be somewhat concerned at leakage.

People could be going as patients for stuff that's absolutely nothing to do with Covid 19 though. And there are bloody loads of non-clinical staff that work in any hospital.

 

[two sheds]

You shouldn't be going out at all if you're showing symptoms should you?

I've resigned myself to wearing a mask on the bus now. I've got a handful from work and a box on order. Figure it's best now there are more people getting on.

No you're right, and I don't apart from the dog walk into the valley at the back of the house with extra anti-social distancing if anyone comes past.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

you wouldn't want to sit at the back of the bus where everyone else's exhalations would be driven by the air from the open windows.

Not sure it would work like that. Point about build-up in enclosed spaces is that the build-up happens everywhere in that space and it takes time to happen, so the more new air circulating the better, wherever you're sat.

 

[two sheds]

People could be going as patients for stuff that's absolutely nothing to do with Covid 19 though. And there are bloody loads of non-clinical staff that work in any hospital.

Yes true but on the other hand people are infectious before they start getting symptoms, and I read that 20% of people in hospital for something else caught coronavirus there. I'm classed as vulnerable and I doubt if I'll survive if I get anything more than a mild dose, so it does have more than passing interest to me.

I don't have a car so I'm working out the odds of being able to travel in the future before there's a good vaccine. I like to plan things so that I know what I'm going to do and so don't have to worry about it at the time.

 

[two sheds]

Not sure it would work like that. Point about build-up in enclosed spaces is that the build-up happens everywhere in that space and it takes time to happen, so the more new air circulating the better, wherever you're sat.

Some First Great Western buses don't actually have windows that open as I recall

 

[bimble]

FFS, still no clear information about "quarantine".

it is amazing isn't it. All I can see is that the plans will be "unveiled" this week. Jokers.
But on the other hand according to this it is an entirely pointless measure at this point, as we have so much worse numbers than most of the nationalities we'd be banning.

Covid-19 quarantine at UK borders may exclude countries with low rates

‘Air bridges’ should be considered after initial blanket policy, says Grant Shapps

www.theguardian.com

 

[two sheds]

it is amazing isn't it. All I can see is that the plans will be "unveiled" this week. Jokers.
But on the other hand according to this it is an entirely pointless measure at this point, as we have so much worse numbers than most of the nationalities we'd be banning.

Covid-19 quarantine at UK borders may exclude countries with low rates

‘Air bridges’ should be considered after initial blanket policy, says Grant Shapps

www.theguardian.com

What about buses then? Should apply to people getting off buses

 

[Pickman's model]

Not sure it would work like that. Point about build-up in enclosed spaces is that the build-up happens everywhere in that space and it takes time to happen, so the more new air circulating the better, wherever you're sat.

yes it would happen everywhere in that space but as anyone who has ever sat on the top of a bus can aver, if you're sat at the front there is little air circulation whereas as you go toward the rear, if windows are open, there is greater air circulation.

 

[Pickman's model]

What about buses then? Should apply to people getting off buses

and bicycles.

 

[two sheds]

yes it would happen everywhere in that space but as anyone who has ever sat on the top of a bus can aver, if you're sat at the front there is little air circulation whereas as you go toward the rear, if windows are open, there is greater air circulation.

Yes but all the nice clean people tend to go up front. It's the manky ones (and me) that sit up the back.

 

[andysays]

All over-fives in UK now eligible for virus test

Everyone over age of five in the UK with symptoms can now be tested for coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes but all the nice clean people tend to go up front. It's the manky ones (and me) that sit up the back.

which is why i said you wouldn't want to sit at the back where a greater portion of the exhalations would end up than at the front

 

[Pickman's model]

All over-fives in UK now eligible for virus test

Everyone over age of five in the UK with symptoms can now be tested for coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced.

i like the way he's trying to track down the asymptomatick carriers.

 

[two sheds]

Good point well made

 

[kalidarkone]

The research on how long coronavirus lasts in the air was based on perfect laboratory conditions. It can remain suspended in the air for a couple of hours, and transmission probably has occurred this way, but it doesn't seem very common and is only thought to be a risk in medical settings or in enclosed spaces with little ventilation from what I've read.

The risk is also the virus contaminating surfaces...hence advice to wash hands frequently and when you get home as well as showering and washing clothes. That's what think I have to do in order to lower the risk for myself.

 

[elbows]

Some days ago I posted a load of tripe from the BBC & Nick Triggle in regards the timing of government care home advice/lockdown. This subject came up then because of a disagreement between Starmer and Johnson over the advice and subsequent claims.

Anyway the BBC have now done a better job of looking at the timeline of this aspect:

Covid: What happened to care homes early in the pandemic?

The publication of Matt Hancock's messages focuses attention on what happened in care homes during the pandemic.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[editor]

Great Brits:

 

[David Clapson]

Check out this new analysis of the UK's excess mortality: Excess mortality: England is the European outlier in the Covid-19 pandemic | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal It's by boffins from Oxford Univ. What does it say? My brain can't handle it just now.

 

[elbows]

It says quite a lot, not sure I can do a summary that does it justice and I would hope some people here will want to talk about various themes it touched on.

A vague attempt at a summary in the meantime:

They want the European system for publishing standardised mortality data to show p-scores as well as z-scores, with plenty of technical explanation as to what these scores are and thir limitations. Mostly it reminds me why I have mostly favoured raw, unadjusted data so far in this pandemic.
Points out how bad England was relative to others, and how this extended into the 15-64 age group, and how some other UK nations and regions fared less badly.
Criticises various aspects of UK response & timing.
Points out that in Germany their pandemic didnt really show up dramatically in z-scores, and suggests some reasons why they might have had less death there.
Points out that even if the pandemic bump in mortality eventually results in a period with lower than normal numbers of deaths, the fair measure would be total length of life lost.

I liked it, thanks for pointing it out. Hopefully lots of people will read it, or at least skim it - if the z-score and p-score bits are not of interest there are still other worthy nuggets.

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It says quite a lot, not sure I can do a summary that does it justice and I would hope some people here will want to talk about various themes it touched on.

A vague attempt at a summary in the meantime:

They want the European system for publishing standardised mortality data to show p-scores as well as z-scores, with plenty of technical explanation as to what these scores are and thir limitations. Mostly it reminds me why I have mostly favoured raw, unadjusted data so far in this pandemic.
Points out how bad England was relative to others, and how this extended into the 15-64 age group, and how some other UK nations and regions fared less badly.
Criticises various aspects of UK response & timing.
Points out that in Germany their pandemic didnt really show up dramatically in z-scores, and suggests some reasons why they might have had less death there.
Points out that even if the pandemic bump in mortality eventually results in a period with lower than normal numbers of deaths, the fair measure would be total length of life lost.

I liked it, thanks for pointing it out. Hopefully lots of people will read it, or at least skim it - if the z-score and p-score bits are not of interest there are still other worthy nuggets.

The England figures for under-65s are such an anomaly that I'd want to check the figures tbh. I know they're looking at excess mortality rather than covid-19 deaths only, but it's hard to square those figures with others showing that over 90 per cent of all England covid deaths have been over 60s.



From here.

They use slightly different age brackets and only cover covid-19 deaths, but it's hard to square it with the startling outlier of the total deaths figures.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Seems something fishy here tbh. Here's Scotland's figures broken down by age, from Scot gov website. Shows about the same age distribution pattern as England, allowing that they split it at 65 rather than 60.