Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[bimble]

bloody hell. latest from national trust here:

"As you will have seen over the weekend, the general public are just not accepting that our car parks are closed and are visiting in their droves.
In the interests of road safety and preventing further damage to the verges and tree roots, we are going to open the drive from today.
We will not be providing any other visitor facilities at this stage and will not be promoting [here]as a place to visit. This is an ever-changing picture and we may need to revise our plans again. ."

What did they expect though after last Sundays proclamation that everyone can drive to enjoy the outdoors much as they like.
Selfishly pissed off though tbh.

 

[two sheds]

If herd immunity is being discussed, then 90% tells you how many people on the bus are likely immune but it doesn't tell you how many are likely infected - over time it would approach zero.

I think we rely on about 95% for measles and it varies per disease, with a lower percentage having been suggested for covid 19.

Yes the 90% by definition says 9 out of 10 are immune, but if you're vulnerable you have to assume that 1 out of 10 are infected. Indeed over time it would approach zero as people with it either become immune (or die from it ).

Always assuming people become and stay immune once they've had it.

 

[Raheem]

Yes the 90% by definition says 9 out of 10 are immune, but if you're vulnerable you have to assume that 1 out of 10 are infected. Indeed over time it would approach zero as people with it either become immune (or die from it ).

Herd immunity means the virus is virtually non-existent in the population, because there are not enough people without immunity for it to spread. The people without immunity are not just waiting around to join the club, they are almost totally safe from infection.

 

[miss direct]

People really don't wear masks in the UK? I'm so used to it now that I think I will be quite nervous being out and about back in the UK. Plenty of sale here, will bring a box of disposable ones and a few cloth ones too.

 

[gentlegreen]

My high street in east Bristol is starting to look far too normal - especially given the age and obesity profiles of the maskless people riding the buses. I reckon people are relying on the low numbers in the area ...

 

[gentlegreen]

People really don't wear masks in the UK? I'm so used to it now that I think I will be quite nervous being out and about back in the UK. Plenty of sale here, will bring a box of disposable ones and a few cloth ones too.

Very few in my area - the convenience stores never even put up screens - the Polish (?) guy up the road has stopped wearing a mask
It's far too early ... I wear mine mostly as a gesture to shopkeepers not to contaminate them or their stock.

 

[zahir]

bloody hell. latest from national trust here:

"As you will have seen over the weekend, the general public are just not accepting that our car parks are closed and are visiting in their droves.
In the interests of road safety and preventing further damage to the verges and tree roots, we are going to open the drive from today.
We will not be providing any other visitor facilities at this stage and will not be promoting [here]as a place to visit. This is an ever-changing picture and we may need to revise our plans again. ."

What did they expect though after last Sundays proclamation that everyone can drive to enjoy the outdoors much as they like.
Selfishly pissed off though tbh.

Does that mean they’ve opened the car park? Ours is still officially closed with no indication of reopening. The numbers actually using it anyway are creeping up though.

 

[bimble]

Does that mean they’ve opened the car park? Ours is still officially closed with no indication of reopening. The numbers actually using it anyway are creeping up though.

Yes. Gate to main parking area that they had planned to leave until 1st June earliest.

 

[elbows]

We have another way to measure the UK establishment lag:

Coronavirus symptoms: UK adds loss of smell and taste to list

Loss of smell and taste join a new cough and fever as signs that self-isolation may be necessary, experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

I havent checked when people, including on this forum, started going on about these symptoms and it became obvious they should be part of the symptoms guide to COVID-19, but if someone could check when that was then we can measure how long it takes for the establishment to react.

 

[belboid]

Some of the car parks and car parking areas were full when we went out for a walk on sunday. Just outside of Sheffield for the first time in two months. No doubt TV crews would have said it was shocking and disgraceful. But it's the bloody Peak District, and having a few dozen cars parked up didn't affect the fact that we only saw another ten people when we were out and easily able to maintain distancing. People dont all arrive or leave at the same time just cos they park in the same place.

I'm sure some spots did get overcrowded, but a full car park is no indicator of such.

 

[bimble]

Some of the car parks and car parking areas were full when we went out for a walk on sunday. Just outside of Sheffield for the first time in two months. No doubt TV crews would have said it was shocking and disgraceful. But it's the bloody Peak District, and having a few dozen cars parked up didn't affect the fact that we only saw another ten people when we were out and easily able to maintain distancing. People dont all arrive or leave at the same time just cos they park in the same place.

I'm sure some spots did get overcrowded, but a full car park is no indicator of such.

The only issue here (apart from crowded car parks themselves) will be the very narrow paths through the woods where if you want 2m distance one of you has to go off the track whist you pass each other. My very scientific research recently has led me to believe that men are about 7 times less likely to make way than women are.

 

[quimcunx]

We have another way to measure the UK establishment lag:

Coronavirus symptoms: UK adds loss of smell and taste to list

Loss of smell and taste join a new cough and fever as signs that self-isolation may be necessary, experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

I havent checked when people, including on this forum, started going on about these symptoms and it became obvious they should be part of the symptoms guide to COVID-19, but if someone could check when that was then we can measure how long it takes for the establishment to react.

this was posted here on 1 april.

https://www.urban75.net/forums/attachments/screenshot_2020-04-01-06-18-21-jpg.204296/

 

[Raheem]

this was posted here on 1 april.

https://www.urban75.net/forums/attachments/screenshot_2020-04-01-06-18-21-jpg.204296/

Before midday, though.

 

[Callie]

We have another way to measure the UK establishment lag:

Coronavirus symptoms: UK adds loss of smell and taste to list

Loss of smell and taste join a new cough and fever as signs that self-isolation may be necessary, experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

I havent checked when people, including on this forum, started going on about these symptoms and it became obvious they should be part of the symptoms guide to COVID-19, but if someone could check when that was then we can measure how long it takes for the establishment to react.

I lost mine 24/3/20 and mentioned it here - there was already a facebook support group I think it was added to the list of symptoms on the imperial covid app a little while after.

CDC added it to their symptom list a couple of weeks back - 24/4/20 according to a quick google? random article has this also:

Symptom Tracking: Predicting COVID-19 Infection
In order to compile more data on COVID-19 symptoms, British researchers at King’s College London developed a symptom tracker app to follow and monitor potential COVID-19 patients as symptoms may appear. Data from the project has so far shown that approximately 60 percent of people who eventually tested positive for COVID-19 experienced loss of smell and taste, compared to 18 percent who tested negative. According to the report, the results were “much stronger in predicting a positive COVID-19 diagnosis than self-reported fever.”

Using the collected data, the research team developed a mathematical model to identify which combination of symptoms, such as loss of smell and taste, fever, persistent cough, fatigue, diarrhea, abdominal pain and loss of appetite, could most accurately predict COVID-19 infection.

Dr. Tim Spector, the King’s College professor who led the study explained that, “when combined with other symptoms, people with loss of smell and taste appear to be three times more likely to have contracted COVID-19 according to our data, and should therefore self-isolate for seven days to reduce the spread of the disease.”

Loss of Smell and Taste Added to the CDC’s List of COVID-19 Symptoms

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have now added the new onset of loss of smell and taste to its growing list of symptoms for COVID-19. In light of growing anecdotal evidence from infected patients, new research studies are now showing that in combination with other symptoms...

xtalks.com

Presumably we have more data to support that now?

 

[two sheds]

Herd immunity means the virus is virtually non-existent in the population, because there are not enough people without immunity for it to spread. The people without immunity are not just waiting around to join the club, they are almost totally safe from infection.

Hmmm, perhaps. Herd immunity certainly means that the virus won't spread within the community much any more because R is well below 1. I'm talking about how safe it is for someone who's vulnerable to use (for example) public transport, though. I still think it's not all that safe if, every journey, you're vulnerable and likely to come in contact with the infection.

Do we definitely know that people who have had the virus and are themselves immune aren't still shedding the virus? Or that they won't be carrying the virus on their hands if they've been in contact with someone who's infected although they themselves are immune?

Last I heard the false positives that had been picked up from people who had recovered were down to faulty tests, but is that conclusive? And as I say there are suggestions that immunity is not necessarily permanent, which might make the whole idea of herd immunity illusory without people being regularly immunized.

 

[editor]

Doofus parade

Anger As Hundreds Of 'Disgusting' Bikers Break Lockdown Rules

Residents hot out at the day trippers for crowding together

www.ladbible.com

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Hmmm, perhaps. Herd immunity certainly means that the virus won't spread within the community much any more because R is well below 1. I'm talking about how safe it is for someone who's vulnerable to use (for example) public transport, though. I still think it's not all that safe if, every journey, you're vulnerable and likely to come in contact with the infection.

Do we definitely know that people who have had the virus and are themselves immune aren't still shedding the virus? Or that they won't be carrying the virus on their hands if they've been in contact with someone who's infected although they themselves are immune?

Last I heard the false positives that had been picked up from people who had recovered were down to faulty tests, but is that conclusive? And as I say there are suggestions that immunity is not necessarily permanent, which might make the whole idea of herd immunity illusory without people being regularly immunized.

You make good points about whether immunity is conferred and for how long, and we're almost certainly nowhere near herd immunity level yet anyway, so this is a hypothetical conversation atm.

But if we do hit those levels, and assuming antibodies give effective ongoing immunity, your first point isn't really so valid. By that stage, if combined with low overall ongoing infection rates, you won't be likely at all to come in contact with the infection. That's the whole point of herd immunity.

 

[Ms Ordinary]

Very few in my area - the convenience stores never even put up screens - the Polish (?) guy up the road has stopped wearing a mask
It's far too early ... I wear mine mostly as a gesture to shopkeepers not to contaminate them or their stock.

So some (few) people who were wearing masks are now beginning to stop wearing them.
Other people - following belated government advice, are just beginning to find it socially acceptable to wear one.

(tbf some of this is folks like my in-laws who see themselves as soon emerging from their '12 week isolation' & plan to don masks in shops & crowded places - I've just made & posted some to them).

 

[two sheds]

You make good points about whether immunity is conferred and for how long, and we're almost certainly nowhere near herd immunity level yet anyway, so this is a hypothetical conversation atm.

But if we do hit those levels, and assuming antibodies give effective ongoing immunity, your first point isn't really so valid. By that stage, if combined with low overall ongoing infection rates, you won't be likely at all to come in contact with the infection. That's the whole point of herd immunity.

Yes true - I was thinking about a comparison with measles virus which apparently lasts 2 hours as droplets in the air to a few hours on surfaces. If coronavirus lasts for several days that would suggest you need a higher percentage for herd immunity than for measles (although I read that transmission rate is around 90% of non-immunized people who come in contact for measles, and R0 at 12-18 )

Eta. Apparently you can still get clusters of measles infections in the UK if someone from abroad comes in who has it. That'll be an issue with cv into the future too, you'd think.

 

[weepiper]

Mask use definitely on the increase here in Edinburgh.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes true - I was thinking about a comparison with measles virus which apparently lasts 2 hours as droplets in the air to a few hours on surfaces. If coronavirus lasts for several days that would suggest you need a higher percentage for herd immunity than for measles (although I read that transmission rate is around 90% of non-immunized people who come in contact for measles, and R0 at 12-18 )

Eta. Apparently you can still get clusters of measles infections in the UK if someone from abroad comes in who has it. That'll be an issue with cv into the future too, you'd think.

In the end, you can't get zero chance of catching it until there are zero viruses left in the world. But you can get very close to zero, as we are with measles now. Once we're down to the chance of being run over by a bus being greater than the chance of catching C-19 on one, we'll be doing ok.

 

[bimble]

The uk is no longer free of measles, because of the anti vaccine people.
What if it takes years to find an effective vaccine and distribute it to everyone (who will accept it), I'm feeling very unsure about the long term risk profile costs and benefits at the moment tbh. Not to me I'm fine hunkering down but know some people for whom the isolation is starting to make a longer life seem a mixed blessing already. My Dad's saying stuff about what if he doesn't get to see us agin etc.

 

[two sheds]

I've just had the very reassuring thought that the only bus past my place also goes past the main hospital in Cornwall

 

[Supine]

I've just had the very reassuring thought that the only bus past my place also goes past the main hospital in Cornwall

Could be handy

 

[two sheds]

Very true. But at any other time any other fucker within a 30 mile radius who is coming down with it and decides to go by bus will be on that bus. Great First Western might suddenly decide to come over all community minded and deep clean the buses every day but somehow I doubt it.

 

[smokedout]

Yes true - I was thinking about a comparison with measles virus which apparently lasts 2 hours as droplets in the air to a few hours on surfaces. If coronavirus lasts for several days that would suggest you need a higher percentage for herd immunity than for measles (although I read that transmission rate is around 90% of non-immunized people who come in contact for measles, and R0 at 12-18 )

The research on how long coronavirus lasts in the air was based on perfect laboratory conditions. It can remain suspended in the air for a couple of hours, and transmission probably has occurred this way, but it doesn't seem very common and is only thought to be a risk in medical settings or in enclosed spaces with little ventilation from what I've read.

 

[two sheds]

The research on how long coronavirus lasts in the air was based on perfect laboratory conditions. It can remain suspended in the air for a couple of hours, and transmission probably has occurred this way, but it doesn't seem very common and is only thought to be a risk in medical settings or in enclosed spaces with little ventilation from what I've read.

An enclosed space with perfect laboratory conditions and very little ventilation .... like a bus?

 

[Sue]

I've just had the very reassuring thought that the only bus past my place also goes past the main hospital in Cornwall

I also live on the bus route for the local hospital. Throughout lockdown, that bus has always seemed much busier than other local buses (though not as busy as usual) presumably because people are going to the hospital to work or as a patient or whatever. Not sure why you're surprised or worried about this -- presumably that bus route had always gone to the hospital?

 

[two sheds]

I also live on the bus route for the local hospital. Throughout lockdown, that bus has always seemed much busier than other local buses (though not as busy as usual) presumably because people are going to the hospital to work or as a patient or whatever. Not sure why you're surprised or worried about this -- presumably that bus route had always gone to the hospital?

Yes, although I've been inoculated against things like measles and cv wasn't in cornwall (although just on the cusp) last time I travelled on it.

I wonder how many people would catch the bus if they were showing symptoms - I certainly wouldn't, nor a taxi nor a lft with a friend (I presume it'd have to be an ambulance?) but as you say nurses and also patients would use it and with ppe being as it is in the UK I'd be somewhat concerned at leakage.

 

[Mrs Miggins]

Yes, although I've been inoculated against things like measles and cv wasn't in cornwall (although just on the cusp) last time I travelled on it.

I wonder how many people would catch the bus if they were showing symptoms - I certainly wouldn't, nor a taxi nor a lft with a friend (I presume it'd have to be an ambulance?) but as you say nurses and also patients would use it and with ppe being as it is in the UK I'd be somewhat concerned at leakage.

You shouldn't be going out at all if you're showing symptoms should you?

I've resigned myself to wearing a mask on the bus now. I've got a handful from work and a box on order. Figure it's best now there are more people getting on.