Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Yeah that happened nearly a month ago, once they were no longer concerned about broader list of symptoms overloading the testing system, due to dismantling big chunks of the testing system and the right to free tests.

 

[MBV]

Ignore

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

I think we will

 

[weltweit]

I have never known so many people getting it, just had it, or getting it again as I know at the moment.

 

[StoneRoad]

I have never known so many people getting it, just had it, or getting it again as I know at the moment.

sadly, to be expected ...

vaccines are protecting against severe illness, not infection per se
and the lack of social distancing / masks etc ...
plus the high transmissibility of the Omicron variants, esp BA.2 ...

 

[Leighsw2]

I have never known so many people getting it, just had it, or getting it again as I know at the moment.

'fraid to say I'm one of them having succumbed after two years dodging this virus. I'm writing this from my sickbed!

In other news, an interesting twitter thread from Christina Pagel about Omicron subvariants - prepare for the third Omicron wave in 4 to 6 weeks! (infuriating as, assuming I'm infected with BA.2, this won't necessarily protect against BA.4 or 5 which appear to be on their way. So my suffering this week will be of little tangible benefit!)

 

[l'Otters]

Can anyone explain in layman’s terms when / how variants stop being sub-variants of eg omicron and start being a new variant which gets its own letter?

 

[gentlegreen]

Yesterday I took the bus to Bristol for gardening supplies as I had two weeks ago.
A calculated risk ?
Very few masks anywhere..
I had to sit on the upper deck on the way there and sat on the right hand side where people even older than me were sitting - all masked...
My sympathies to those who have no choice and do this every day.

My go-to virologist who is 6 years older than me makes a point of saying he rides the NY subway maskless now.
Perhaps he feels he needs to to express confidence in the vaccine - but I'm a long way off being at that point.

Six months since my third vaccination so if my FFP2 mask failed, I can expect a moderate dose - not helped by having regained most of the weight I lost last year. My vitamin D stores should be fairly well charged up as I've been working in the sunshine in tee shirt and shorts.

 

[platinumsage]

Six months since my third vaccination so if my FFP2 mask failed, I can expect a moderate dose

If an infected maskless person is having a long close-up conversation with you, or you're in a totally unventilated space with infected people for over an hour maybe, otherwise highly unlikely.

 

[teuchter]

Zoe update



Video has some graphs. He is saying that although cases have been falling for a while they may now be plateauing or even rising again.

BA2 perhaps less severe symptoms than BA1.

Meanwhile here are what the UK healthcare graphs currently look like.

My observations are that number of people in hospital seems to correspond with no of cases in general - but the latest wave seems to have had less of an impact on numbers in ventilation - hopefully because of lower severity?

 

[elbows]

My observations are that number of people in hospital seems to correspond with no of cases in general - but the latest wave seems to have had less of an impact on numbers in ventilation - hopefully because of lower severity?

As usual I will say that our perceptions of severity arent just about the evolution of the virus, but also very much the evolution of our population immunity picture.

eg 2nd Omicron wave happened in the context of further evolution of the number of unvaccinated people who hadnt yet caught the virus, vaccinated people who had already caught Covid before etc etc.

When it comes to hospital data and comparing numbers in hospital beds to numbers in mechanical ventilation beds, there are some other factors to consider too when it comes to 2nd Omicron wave compared to the first one. Probably the most obvious example is that in England where data is available, the proportion of 'incidental' hospital cases compared to those recorded as being in hospital primarily for Covid has been different in the 2nd Omicron wave compared to the first one. So I'm not surprised the ventilation bed figures didnt show the same height of peak this time. Here is the usual graph, which I havent posted for a while, which illustrates this point quite well:


Data actually goes up to May 10th despite what the axis labels say. Data is from the primary diagnoses supplement spreadsheet at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

Since I've posted that data, I suppose I should point out that I'd expect changes to the hospital infection control rules, in hospital testing regimes etc to have some effect of unknown magnitude on the 'incidental' hospital data these days and in future. But these changes didnt happen so long ago that they would have messed up the ability to compare 1st Omicron wave to 2nd Omicron wave in this data, this point is more about any comparisons we may want to make in future.

Also note that if we can still trust the ability to measure the number of 'primarily for cases' under the various new testing rules, and so can still right now fairly compare them to the levels seen in past years, we have finally reached a stage where the number of primary covid patients in hospital in England has fallen below a level its not fallen below since the Delta wave fully emerged.

As for what happens next and the possibility of decline having slowed or showing signs of going into reverse, now is certainly one of those moments where we wait to see if the now familiar oscillation happens yet again. I suppose we are at the point where there is renewed selective pressure on the virus to show its hand in terms of a new variant that dominate by being able to punch through the existing immunity picture in an obvious way, at scale. Because clearly we've gone quite a long way beyond the point where the last dominant version of the virus could sustain growth, due to running out of sufficient number of fresh victims, and so some mutations (or other changes to the population immunity picture, eg notable waning) are required in order for the virus to enjoy obvious growth again. Such a variant could have been around for some time and may be one of the ones thats already on the radar, and so what I really mean is that now is the time we will start to get a clearer view of its rise to dominance becoming obvious.

 

[gentlegreen]

I didn't get to Aldi during the week, so I took a gamble on 4pm on a Friday evening.
I was used to near-zero masking, but why remove the perspex between the scab tills ?
I suppose now that it's warmed-up they can keep a good draught blowing.

 

[LDC]

I think there's been a massive shift in the last few weeks among people I know. I would say everyone is 'back to normal' in terms of behaviour, going out, not wearing masks, etc. and it not featuring in conversations really.

So many people I know had it in the last month or 2, none were in hospital and everyone (bar one person) seems to have recovered fine.

The NHS Trust I work for has also just announced they'll stop doing daily updates on Covid and Covid figures in the Trust. Only thing noticeable now is masks at work and some testing of staff, either routine or if you have symptoms.

 

[miss direct]

I've not been in the UK since January but will be back next week. Is it really zero masks? I've got to get back from the airport via muliple forms of public transport, noone is going to bother me if I choose to keep wearing one, are they? I've managed to get all around the world without catching it and don 't want to get it now. Although are cases lowish now? I've not been keeping up.

 

[teuchter]

No-one will bother you for wearing a mask. There are still a few people in most trains or shops choosing to wear one.

Cases are not exactly low. I think the estimate is something like 1 in 30 or 40 people have it just now, compared to 1 in 10 or 20 a little while ago.

 

[gentlegreen]

I haven't had any issues - apart from some iffy looks from a couple buying ultra-luxury bog roll and nothing else in a homestore on a rainy day ...
I walked home from Aldi earlier - deliberately wearing my FFP2 mask when I usually wouldn't bother - though the pavement was quite busy ...
I weighed-up the quality of social interaction (near zero) vs not catching their germs ...

 

[BristolEcho]

I think there's been a massive shift in the last few weeks among people I know. I would say everyone is 'back to normal' in terms of behaviour, going out, not wearing masks, etc. and it not featuring in conversations really.

So many people I know had it in the last month or 2, none were in hospital and everyone (bar one person) seems to have recovered fine.

The NHS Trust I work for has also just announced they'll stop doing daily updates on Covid and Covid figures in the Trust. Only thing noticeable now is masks at work and some testing of staff, either routine or if you have symptoms.

Yeah must admit when I moved to my new workplace and zero people were wearing masks I have let it lax. No one on the bus has one now. Kind of off topic I wonder when GP's are going to start seeing people face to face again regularly. I had been direct working and we were seeing people regularly pretty quickly though I always masked even when we moved away from that. Wonder if they will ever go back to normal.

I've not been in the UK since January but will be back next week. Is it really zero masks? I've got to get back from the airport via muliple forms of public transport, noone is going to bother me if I choose to keep wearing one, are they? I've managed to get all around the world without catching it and don 't want to get it now. Although are cases lowish now? I've not been keeping up.

You should be okay I have occasionally worn one without any problems. I did have a tipping point though where it sort of felt futile.

 

[teuchter]

To me it seems the only reason to continue wearing a mask is if you seriously want to avoid catching it, but that would mean also not going to social stuff. If you want to go to pubs or cafes or restaurants - you're going to get it eventually. Unless there's some dramatic fall off in case numbers and no-one really seems to be expecting that.

 

[BristolEcho]

To me it seems the only reason to continue wearing a mask is if you seriously want to avoid catching it, but that would mean also not going to social stuff. If you want to go to pubs or cafes or restaurants - you're going to get it eventually. Unless there's some dramatic fall off in case numbers and no-one really seems to be expecting that.

My main reason for wearing one until around 6-8 weeks ago was mainly for other people who are still nervous and wearing there's. I barely see anyone doing it now though. I agree I'm on the way to the pub now so it is pointless.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I'm still wearing a mask on the bus and in shops because it's a small hardship - hardly one at all tbh - compared to potentially unknowingly passing it from a student I've been in contact with to someone vulnerable elsewhere.

 

[miss direct]

It's going to feel really strange not wearing one...it's been over two years for me as they were made compulsory very quickly in Turkey (where I was at the start of the pandemic.) I suppose I'll wear it for the last part of my journey - would be pretty shit to get covid just as I arrive back home and have lots of plans. But then I'll want to do social stuff.

 

[cesare]

I'm still wearing a mask on the bus and in shops because it's a small hardship - hardly one at all tbh - compared to potentially unknowingly passing it from a student I've been in contact with to someone vulnerable elsewhere.

Me too.

 

[oryx]

Me too.

And me.

 

[teuchter]

I'm still wearing a mask on the bus and in shops because it's a small hardship - hardly one at all tbh - compared to potentially unknowingly passing it from a student I've been in contact with to someone vulnerable elsewhere.

I'm still doing it in certain circumstances.

But when you're on a packed train or bus and you're the 1 in 50 who's wearing a mask, the reduction in risk to someone vulnerable on the same bus cant be that great.

Someone vulnerable travelling on that bus would be much better off making sure that they themselves have a mask that protects them as much as possible.

I resisted this argument for quite some time - it's one that a lot of people were pushing as their reason for not wearing a mask even while it was still supposed to be mandatory - but we are now at the point where hardly anyone is wearing a mask, whether we like it or not.

 

[two sheds]

Used the train for first time in a while, not many masks in view but there was an announcement 'please wear a mask if you can' or something like which was nice because I'd forgotten.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I'm still doing it in certain circumstances.

But when you're on a packed train or bus and you're the 1 in 50 who's wearing a mask, the reduction in risk to someone vulnerable on the same bus cant be that great.

Someone vulnerable travelling on that bus would be much better off making sure that they themselves have a mask that protects them as much as possible.

I resisted this argument for quite some time - it's one that a lot of people were pushing as their reason for not wearing a mask even while it was still supposed to be mandatory - but we are now at the point where hardly anyone is wearing a mask, whether we like it or not.

I can't control what others do, but I can wear a mask. Makes me feel better however misplaced. I also get a bus half an hour earlier than I need to so I can avoid it being crowded.

 

[l'Otters]

I wear a mask in shops, on public transport, etc. I'm in a minority in most of those contexts but not had any comments or any grief.
(not since the day I got a train out of central London on the same day as a big anti mask anti vax demo had been on)

Similar to others, I have no desire to pass covid on to anyone who might suffer badly with it. Which could be anyone, long covid is a gamble which means I'm still not keen on getting it myself. So for crowded trains I wear a well sealing ffp3.

For pubs cafe's etc I look to the outside seating options which thankfully most of the people I'm meeting prefer anyway now the weather has improved. Been doing various social stuff which carries a risk, but in general the cost/benefit balance works out for me else I wouldn't do it.

 

[miss direct]

For pubs cafe's etc I look to the outside seating options which thankfully most of the people I'm meeting prefer anyway now the weather has improved. Been doing various social stuff which carries a risk, but in general the cost/benefit balance works out for me else I wouldn't do it.

This is how I feel. Maybe it's silly, but I don't want to get covid from something unenjoyable, like sitting on a bus, when it's easy to wear a mask. If I have to get it, at least let it be from something joyful.

 

[elbows]

I see the absurdities and bad comedy timing are still present in the UK.

Jonathan Van-Tam misses knighthood ceremony due to Covid

England's former deputy chief medical officer is recovering and the ceremony will be rescheduled.

www.bbc.co.uk

At least being Van-Tam we got stuff like this:

He added: "This shows us that much as we'd all like to think this pandemic is over and Covid has gone away, it hasn't gone - it's something we are going to have live with for many years to come.
"We just have to try and be careful and protect each other."

 

[elbows]

Latest picture from the ONS infection survey:

Covid infections down again to one in 50, says ONS

Infections have been falling since the end of March, after the Omicron variant pushed up cases.

www.bbc.co.uk

• one in 55 in England - down from one in 45 the week before
• one in 40 in Wales - down from one in 35 the week before
• one in 60 in Northern Ireland - down from one in 55 the week before
• one in 45 in Scotland - down from one in 35 the week before

However, the ONS found that infections may no longer be falling in the south-east and south-west of England. And among under-35s, the drop in infections looks to be slowing down.