Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[wtfftw]

Splendid. I'm glad you get to test still tho.. Shame everyone you're in contact with can't

 

[Brainaddict]

So people who buy lateral flows can't log their results? I'm fuzzy brained today but have I read that right?

Is this true? So they really are just going to stop counting cases basically?

 

[Agent Sparrow]

Yes, its absolutely as clever as you'd expect from something thats been announced literally 7 hours before free tests come to an end.

Almost as if the government didn’t want to be able to track cases…

 

[two sheds]

Neighbour's got covid from her son's wedding only the second person in the village I think because none of us go out much

 

[sheothebudworths]

Iirc from the other day, you can still log results, but it will cost more to do that in addition to paying for the actual tests.

Eta, that was Boots (fuck knows re anyone else) -

Boots has said it will offer the devices for £2.50 each or £12 for a pack of five, or £17 for a pack of four with the extra option to send results to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

Tesco then announced that it would be selling the swabs for £2 each, among the most affordable on the market, from 1 April.

 

[teuchter]

I'm not sure i agree with the ending of free tests, but I'm also not sure I can see the point of counting positive test numbers now that they will become increasingly decoupled from actual prevalence. Carry on with the random sample studies, and testing in healthcare settings, sure.

 

[sparkybird]

Almost as if the government didn’t want to be able to track cases…

I think the '1 in 16 people have Covid' type data comes from the ONS survey which is continuing. Which is a good thing (esp as I've been part of the survey!)

 

[l'Otters]

I'm not sure i agree with the ending of free tests, but I'm also not sure I can see the point of counting positive test numbers now that they will become increasingly decoupled from actual prevalence. Carry on with the random sample studies, and testing in healthcare settings, sure.

Do you actually believe the stuff you post here or is it trolling?

 

[teuchter]

Do you actually believe the stuff you post here or is it trolling?

What are you taking exception to exactly?

 

[CH1]

Re teuchter on number crunching and others going spare it does seem to me we are back in the loop of herd immunity or not herd immunity. Seems like no-one wants to mention the war as it were, but the government are steering us down that road by default - ready for the new financial year (as it happens).

 

[gentlegreen]

Interesting coincidence that we're coming up to 6 months since our boosters ... are we expected to decide that getting a mild infection sooner rather than later and thereafter at perhaps 6 month intervals will make us less sick than deliberately avoiding infection for as long as possible and then getting infected when our B cell immunity has waned ?

 

[gentlegreen]

Of course I am in a very privileged position - over-60, but unusually healthy, and also retired so at minimal risk of exposure.
Perhaps a good reason to hang onto my spurious "diabetic" status for as long as possible so I jump the queue for future boosters.

Bastard Fail at it again ...

Covid scare-mongering returns: Sir Patrick Vallance says new variant may take world by storm, Chris Whitty warns NHS is still under huge pressure and Jenny Harries calls for Brits to KEEP wearing face masks because Covid infections are so high​

• Sir Patrick Vallance said the 'room for this virus to evolve remains very large'
• Dr Jenny Harries says Brits should mask up during 'periods of high prevalence'
• Chief medical officer Sir Chris Whitty said NHS is under 'significant pressure'

 

[pbsmooth]

I agree with a lot of what teuchter says. people on this thread seem slightly obsessed with positive test numbers - we test as a country far more than any other.
the number of deaths remain low and a fraction of the peak= 100s compared to 1500s.
so vaccination does seem to have turned it into a normal flu-like illness in terms of numbers, i.e. comparable with a bad flu season right now.

 

[gentlegreen]

so vaccination does seem to have turned it into a normal flu-like illness in terms of numbers, i.e. comparable with a bad flu season right now.

Were similar numbers of people being hospitalised with flu before 2020 ?
Is hospitalisation "acceptable" ?

 

[pbsmooth]

similar, yes.

 

[gentlegreen]

similar, yes.

Well, given that no one is wearing masks any more, how long until flu numbers return in addition to covid ?
And as I mentioned upthread, B cell immunity is waning so there will be more disease - plus there's the danger of new variants ...

 

[elbows]

Flu comparison propaganda isnt as effective when it isnt winter.

 

[elbows]

Were similar numbers of people being hospitalised with flu before 2020 ?
Is hospitalisation "acceptable" ?

There are some large problems trying to make direct comparisons with influenza when it comes to hospitalisations. This is because of a lack of routine mass testing and patient screening for influenza, in contrast for hospital testing for covid.

So I treat hospital figures for influenza as being very crude estimates, based on general disease classification codes rather than formal diagnoses via testing. Here are some example ones for England:

There were 41,730 and 39,670 influenza-related hospital admissions in England during the 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons respectively.

Those numbers are from Quantifying the direct secondary health care cost of seasonal influenza in England - BMC Public Health and that paper itself goes on about the difficulties with data due to lack of proper diagnosis and classification. Our traditional attitudes towards proper mass diagnostics testing for such illnesses are a complete disgrace, such things have for very many decades not been considered to be worth bothering with, obscuring the true picture.

Hospital admissions/diagnoses for Covid in England are over 130,000 for 2022 so far. People will go on about the proportion of those that are 'incidental', and might like to include only 45% of that figure, which would give a number around 58,000.

Another issue is the role and scale of hospital-acquired infections. It is possible that around 25% of Englands hospital covid figures are caused by those sorts of infections during the Omicron waves, and there is a large overlap between those cases and the figures people seek to dismiss as being 'incidental'. I suspect hospital-acquired infections are a big deal when it comes to influenza too, but I dont have good data about that, and again lack of influenza testing doesnt help.

Another issue is the time periods and the ongoing covid situation. For example those influenza numbers I mentioned involved traditional flu season assumptions, in the case of that paper it seems they used September-March time periods, but I dont have exact dates. Above I just used 2022 figures for covid admissions, but there is no reason I shouldnt have included some months of 2021. If I add December 2021 to the total I mentioned earlier, I get over 160,000. If I add September-November as well then I get over 225,000. I'm only counting England because the influenza figures I found are only for England.

 

[2hats]

FWIW (UK study): in unvaccinated adults (read also: poor immunoresponders) co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 with influenza more than doubled mortality risk and more than quadrupled risk of requiring mechanical ventilation (during the study period Feb2020-Dec2021).
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00383-X.

 

[elbows]

FWIW (UK study): in unvaccinated adults (read also: poor immunoresponders) co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 with influenza more than doubled mortality risk and more than quadrupled risk of requiring mechanical ventilation (during the study period Feb2020-Dec2021).
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00383-X.

And both the risks from co-infection, and the risks to health system capacity in the event of a notable flu wave and covid wave happening at the same time, meant that worst case winter planning did not have the luxury of assuming everything would be ok in the covid vaccine era. And I doubt it will next winter either.

 

[gentlegreen]

On a slightly better note, IIRC I heard the radio declaim that it was now possible to book for the "spring" booster - if you are over 75 and immunocompromised.

OK so far as it goes, but I would prefer the age limit to have been somewhat lower and more CEV people to be covered.

Just got this on NextDoor

NHS Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG).

Wondering if you’re eligible for a spring booster? Everyone aged 75 and over, people who live in care homes for older people, and people aged 12 and over with a weakened immune system can now come forward. Visit grabajab.net for more information.

 

[teuchter]

My earlier comments about not being too bothered if we stop counting positive self tests aren't really connected to the current number of hospitalisations and deaths and whether or not I would deem them "acceptable". It's more to do with the complete change in rules and restrictions. Now that no-one is really obliged to isolate, now that tests are no longer free, it seems fairly obvious that the number of people taking tests voluntarily is going to decline massively, and the makeup of the portion of the population who do take tests is going to change. So, firstly they become a bit useless for comparing with previous levels and secondly they will present an increasingly distorted picture of true prevalence.

The ONS type random sample surveys obviously continue to be useful and I assume it's here that new variants are spotted (not in LFTs). And monitoring the number of hospital admissions resulting from covid also seems very wise. It looks to me like we should be doing the same for "normal" flu probably.

Perhaps someone can explain to me the benefit of monitoring and counting LFT type tests at this stage in the pandemic.

 

[elbows]

Nobody is legally obliged to isolate but plenty still do - I would still offer free lateral flow tests because testing positive on those is likely to influence behaviour in that respect. But thats likely one of the reasons they have stopped offering them for free for most people.

My opinion about the usefulness of seeing the data that comes from those tests is already known, I'm like you, I look at ONS etc stuff instead at this stage.

Better surveillance of the variant picture is one of the reasons I wasnt keen on them reducing availability of PCR testing months ago either. But in addition to ONS PCR tests, they do analyse a proportion of PCR samples that come through other channels too, eg hospitalised cases.

 

[elbows]

Speaking of the ONS data, I see England and the UK hit one in 13.

Covid: Record 4.9 million people have the virus in UK

The latest data from the ONS suggests some 4.9 million people in the UK are infected with the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[cesare]

I know I'm probably over-reacting but it makes me so anxious.

 

[elbows]

I'd be a lot less anxious if the rates would just come down to something that isnt so stupidly high. Until that happens Im not going back to anything approaching normal, since I'm still intending to avoid catching this virus at the moment.

I see from the end of that last article that Van-Tam was speaking on his last day in his role. I dont really know why he chose London as an example of very high hospitalisation rates. But I can certainly appreciate why he chose to highlight concerns about uptake of the next booster:

"And what keeps me awake at night is whether the people we have called - over-75s - for their second booster dose are going to come forward really rapidly and really quickly in the next few days and weeks, because it is going to be important."

 

[cesare]

I'd be a lot less anxious if the rates would just come down to something that isnt so stupidly high. Until that happens Im not going back to anything approaching normal, since I'm still intending to avoid catching this virus at the moment.

I see from the end of that last article that Van-Tam was speaking on his last day in his role. I dont really know why he chose London as an example of very high hospitalisation rates. But I can certainly appreciate why he chose to highlight concerns about uptake of the next booster:

At the moment when there's been so much loss and grief, I just wanted to say that I'm not sure if I've ever told you how much I appreciate you as a poster; I really do. Not just on flu and other nasty-virus type threads but also what you have said on the trans threads.

 

[teuchter]

By my reckoning, with over 3M people being infected at one time, if sustained at that sort of level, it's something like 15-20 weeks until pretty much everyone has had it. Is that very roughly correct?

 

[gentlegreen]

By my reckoning, with over 3M people being infected at one time, if sustained at that sort of level, it's something like 15-20 weeks until pretty much everyone has had it. Is that very roughly correct?

At which point the early adopters' B-cell immunity will be waning and it will be time to get infected again ?

 

[kabbes]

I know I'm probably over-reacting but it makes me so anxious.

Rightly or wrongly, it paradoxically makes me less anxious. I’d like to claim some kind of logical reason for this but it’s mostly just the usual human process of norm-referencing. If everybody is living as normal, the danger is less visible and so less salient to me. The knowledge that despite 1-in-13 people having it and now seeing it everywhere, I personally know of fewer serious cases (actually none) helps create that sense of normality.