Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I wish the following surprised me, but it does not.
The full article is only available if you are registered but the start is probably enough to get the idea:
www.hsj.co.uk
NHS Providers are not so bullish, but in other areas there is pressure from senior management to have the rules changed.
Attitudes, decisions and capabilities in regards infection control within our health system is, I believe, one of the reasons this country did badly in the pandemic. It is a difficult area and despite my large number of posts about hospital-acquired infections, I do recognise that when the risk picture changes a new balance will inevitably be struck. But 'learning to live with Covid' in this context sucks, and I tend to point my finger in this direction when it comes to things like the number of flu deaths that are considered normal and that we are encouraged to accept, so its unlikely I'll ever be in line with authorities when it comes to this stuff and Covid.
These sorts of things remind me what whoppers were told when the pandemic forced attitudes towards working when sick within the health system to temporarily change, eg claims that people always understood the value of not coming to work when infectious when actually most people are only too well aware of the standard pressure to keep working.
The pressures that arise in the current circumstances, the effect on healthcare and the temptation to relax rules as a result, is one of the big reasons why I dont like broader acceptance of massive waves of covid being allowed to happen, even when we have changed the ratio of cases to severe cases and deaths substantially.
The full article is only available if you are registered but the start is probably enough to get the idea:
‘Disproportionate’ infection control holding back electives, say NHS bosses
Infection control rules in the NHS are 'now disproportionate to the risks' posed by covid and should be relaxed, including potentially allowing staff with covid to work, some of the NHS's most senior leaders have said.
www.hsj.co.uk
NHS Providers are not so bullish, but in other areas there is pressure from senior management to have the rules changed.
Attitudes, decisions and capabilities in regards infection control within our health system is, I believe, one of the reasons this country did badly in the pandemic. It is a difficult area and despite my large number of posts about hospital-acquired infections, I do recognise that when the risk picture changes a new balance will inevitably be struck. But 'learning to live with Covid' in this context sucks, and I tend to point my finger in this direction when it comes to things like the number of flu deaths that are considered normal and that we are encouraged to accept, so its unlikely I'll ever be in line with authorities when it comes to this stuff and Covid.
These sorts of things remind me what whoppers were told when the pandemic forced attitudes towards working when sick within the health system to temporarily change, eg claims that people always understood the value of not coming to work when infectious when actually most people are only too well aware of the standard pressure to keep working.
The pressures that arise in the current circumstances, the effect on healthcare and the temptation to relax rules as a result, is one of the big reasons why I dont like broader acceptance of massive waves of covid being allowed to happen, even when we have changed the ratio of cases to severe cases and deaths substantially.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
On a slightly better note, IIRC I heard the radio declaim that it was now possible to book for the "spring" booster - if you are over 75 and immunocompromised.
OK so far as it goes, but I would prefer the age limit to have been somewhat lower and more CEV people to be covered.
OK so far as it goes, but I would prefer the age limit to have been somewhat lower and more CEV people to be covered.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Everything is fine
I am in Edinburgh. My son is sitting his Higher exams in 6 weeks.
Schools closed over staff Covid absence rates
Pupils in at least six primaries move to remote learning as councils warn of high staff absences.
www.bbc.co.uk
I am in Edinburgh. My son is sitting his Higher exams in 6 weeks.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Highest ever numbers of covid patients in hospital in Devon ATM.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Unfortunately, I've been expecting the map to do the going back to deep purple again.
Removing all restrictions before Omicron had been properly subdued is/was downright negligent.
Without a sense of community responsibility, any "guidance" and lack of proper support, just hoping people will do the right thing was never going to cut it, was it ?
and fuck "living with covid" at least until the case rate has been down a lot lower for a decent few weeks ...
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Infection rate in my part of Bristol is now twice the England average and should flip from dark purple to black in a day or two.
Almost zero masking in Aldi - They think it's all over - again ...
Almost zero masking in Aldi - They think it's all over - again ...
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I am finding it hard to see that this is now an option.
I know that one view is that we should have continued with mask requirements for longer, and it's not something I'd have argued against, but what is the evidence that it really would have made a lot of difference?
In February I was in Germany. The difference in approach to mask rules there, compared to the UK, was very striking. Almost everyone was wearing a mask in every situation they were supposed to - in shops, on trains, on buses, in galleries, pretty much everywhere except restaurants and bars. Furthermore almost everyone was wearing an FFP2 mask and almost everyone was wearing it properly. So in other words what they were doing was the absolute best case scenario for compliance that we could ever have seen here.
As far as I'm aware, they've only just announced that they will end these requirements, and many states are opting to continue for another couple of weeks.
But when I look at their case numbers, they do not appear to be doing any better than the UK.
Of course, I know that differences in testing regimes can make these figures misleading.
I've not been able to find any "prevalance" numbers for Germany, to compare with those from the UK REACT study etc. Nor hospitalisations. But their deaths figures don't appear to be any better than ours either.
I now find it a little hard to see that we could really, meaningfully suppress Omicron numbers without a return to lockdowns and shutting down of hospitality etc.
I'm very willing to be argued against on this.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Comparisons to other countries are harder than ever. Take for example those death figures for Germany. As far as I know their December peak was from a Delta wave, so they havent actually had a Omicron death wave of the magnitude the UK experienced with its first Omicron wave. And the vaccination and booster coverage and timing wasnt the same as ours. Chuck in a bunch of other differences and there is no way I can use the data to make any claims about how much difference masks are making.
I can certainly agree that masks arent going to make a giant, dramatic difference on their own. Even with the original version of the virus we were told that only combinations of measures applied together would make enough of a difference, and things are even harder now because of the transmission advantages recent variants have.
Masks on their own will still make a difference as to whether some specific individuals catch covid, and that still matters to me even when the impact on the overall numbers game is more modest. Even there, we'd still expect some effect, but whether its something authorities would go for in isolation would depend on what estimates looked like - if they thought numbers might just exceed tolerable thresholds then masks on their own might make enough of a difference, but its more likely that masks would be paired with at least one other thing like working from home and gloomy mood music. Or likewise with timing, if for example there was a race to get boosters done in time and things like masks might slow things just enough to buy the necessary time. There are also the psychological knock on effects, such as reminding people that the threat is still out there, putting people off from certain activities and locations, etc. But these days thats exactly the sort of psychology the authorities want to get rid of because it gets in the way of their normalisation agenda, they actively want people to go back to the old ways and not be reminded of the ongoing threat. Javid has been bragging again recently about showing the rest of the world how to live with covid, and when thats the agenda they will not be seeking to save every possible life, they have their eyes on a different prize and the threshold for when they'd be forced to act becomes higher.
There are lots of other things in between masks and lockdowns, but we scrapped those too. eg working from home, self-isolation rules. They wont look to bring any of that stuff back unless hospitalisation figures go completely nuts in this wave. And even if dramatic signs of that happening emerge then I expect all they will try to do initially is to use it to encourage the new booster campaign to reach more people, faster. Only if the projections become very bleak would they be forced into a proper u-turn.
I can certainly agree that masks arent going to make a giant, dramatic difference on their own. Even with the original version of the virus we were told that only combinations of measures applied together would make enough of a difference, and things are even harder now because of the transmission advantages recent variants have.
Masks on their own will still make a difference as to whether some specific individuals catch covid, and that still matters to me even when the impact on the overall numbers game is more modest. Even there, we'd still expect some effect, but whether its something authorities would go for in isolation would depend on what estimates looked like - if they thought numbers might just exceed tolerable thresholds then masks on their own might make enough of a difference, but its more likely that masks would be paired with at least one other thing like working from home and gloomy mood music. Or likewise with timing, if for example there was a race to get boosters done in time and things like masks might slow things just enough to buy the necessary time. There are also the psychological knock on effects, such as reminding people that the threat is still out there, putting people off from certain activities and locations, etc. But these days thats exactly the sort of psychology the authorities want to get rid of because it gets in the way of their normalisation agenda, they actively want people to go back to the old ways and not be reminded of the ongoing threat. Javid has been bragging again recently about showing the rest of the world how to live with covid, and when thats the agenda they will not be seeking to save every possible life, they have their eyes on a different prize and the threshold for when they'd be forced to act becomes higher.
There are lots of other things in between masks and lockdowns, but we scrapped those too. eg working from home, self-isolation rules. They wont look to bring any of that stuff back unless hospitalisation figures go completely nuts in this wave. And even if dramatic signs of that happening emerge then I expect all they will try to do initially is to use it to encourage the new booster campaign to reach more people, faster. Only if the projections become very bleak would they be forced into a proper u-turn.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Plus the fact more people in older age groups are catching it this time is actually a factor that makes them even keener to hold their nerve - if the NHS consequences arent too severe and the wave is ridden out, they can use that to claim with increasing confidence that we can live with covid without restrictions. Certain properties of Omicron appear to make it a good candidate upon which to build such claims, at least when combined with the right amount of vaccine coverage, right timing of boosters. If some future variant spoils this then they'll not bother crossing that bridge till they come to it.
Personally I still have absolutely no intention of returning to relative normality until prevalence levels fall so much lower than they have been so far since Omicron came along. I have the luxury for a few more months of taking that approach.
Personally I still have absolutely no intention of returning to relative normality until prevalence levels fall so much lower than they have been so far since Omicron came along. I have the luxury for a few more months of taking that approach.
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l'Otters
.
Do you think that dropping self isolation when infectious with covid, including in hospitals, is a good idea at this point?
Likewise with no support for self isolation (and the lowest rate of sick pay in Europe iirc)?
Likewise ending free testing?
Are you one of these people who doesn’t accept that masks have an impact on transmission?
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Are you "one of these people" who never really bothers to read what someone's actually written?
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Anyway, of course there are all sorts of measures that could be taken which could reduce the number of infections to some extent, an extent that is basically somewhat unknown. And that has to be balanced against the negative impacts of those measures, again something that can never be definitely measured and something that people will inevitably disagree on because of the wildly differing extent to which they impact on different people with different lives.
There's never going to be agreement on what the right balance is. Those who want restrictions done away with, may underestimate the real and perceived consequences for those more vulnerable to the disease. Those who want them kept in place, may underestimate the implications of those restrictions, for people in different circumstances to their own.
There's never going to be agreement on what the right balance is. Those who want restrictions done away with, may underestimate the real and perceived consequences for those more vulnerable to the disease. Those who want them kept in place, may underestimate the implications of those restrictions, for people in different circumstances to their own.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Whitty:
www.theguardian.com
NHS under pressure from new Covid wave across England, says Chris Whitty
Increasing numbers of people needing hospital treatment for coronavirus, says chief medical officer
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Covid pressure on hospitals 'as serious as it gets'
Scotland's biggest health board says it is facing a perfect storm of high patient numbers and staff absences.
www.bbc.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
ONS infection survey suggest 1 in 11 people had Covid in Scotland last week!
One in 16 in England and Wales.
Covid in Scotland: New record as one in 11 Scots had virus last week
Official estimates suggest 473,800 people in Scotland had the virus in the week ending 20 March.
www.bbc.co.uk
One in 16 in England and Wales.
UK Covid infections climb by a million in a week
About 4.3 million people - or one in every 16 - are thought to have the virus, compared to 3.3 million the week before.
www.bbc.co.uk
The numbers in Scotland are shocking at the moment.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Ridiculous shithead Simon Jenkins offers a glimpse at the sort of revisionist history these kind of cunts still hope to be able to indulge in in future:
www.theguardian.com
Two years ago I said I was taking Covid ‘with a pinch of salt’ – perhaps I was wrong | Simon Jenkins
March 2020 was a nightmare month in the game of prediction. But I stand firm that some of my scepticism may be borne out, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
I am hopeful we could be reaching the peak of this new wave soon, the increases in the 7-day average of reported new cases has been slowing over the last week or so, up 'just' +8.5% today.
Here in Worthing, which has been in the top three areas for infection rates in England for a few weeks now, the 7-day averages have actually started to drop this last week, down -8.3% today.
Here in Worthing, which has been in the top three areas for infection rates in England for a few weeks now, the 7-day averages have actually started to drop this last week, down -8.3% today.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah, reasons to hope for that include previous wave timing patterns hopefully repeating, the virus running out of sufficient new victims to maintain ever growing numbers, better weather seen lately, the number of people who are still doing the right thing by isolating when sick.
I dont have an exact sense of timing in mind eg I could be a week or two off, but if it drags on longer then the easter school holiday will also be expected to make a difference when that arrives.
Obviously there is some lag when it comes to hospitalisations and deaths, so I dont think we've seen that side of the picture emerge in full yet for the BA.2 wave of Omicron, but there are still some obvious limits in the extent to which we'd expect those to grow given the level of infections already reached but not sustainable.
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