Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

The ONS infection survey has picked up on cases rising, just like ZOE did, albeit the ONS has not captured this to the same extent (yet) and there is variation per UK nation and by age group.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey headline results, UK - Office for National Statistics

The latest data from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection survey, containing high level estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[andysays]

If some kind of deadly mutation arose, then restrictions could and would be brought back in.

I'm sure the horse won't bolt, but if it does, we can always shut the stable door behind it...

 

[zahir]

Thread from Deepti Gurdasani

 

[elbows]

I know what to say - they were never intending to prevent all preventable illness and death. I give a shit about it but I know what attitudes towards such deaths were like before this virus and had no expectation of a sea change in that regard as a result of this pandemic.

 

[elbows]

And so long as results from widescale public drug trials show some benefit, they better not remove the ability of vulnerable people to get a test and its results quickly and then get access to the drugs at the appropriate moment. Not that the system has so far been perfect in terms of timing, it needs to get better not worse.

I also saw the other day that an investigation has been launched into bias in diagnostics equipment that may have been tuned to only work appropriately for some ethnicities, failing others in a bad way. eg the disgraceful situation with pulse oximeters, a subject that I do not remember gaining traction here when it first came out.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

If some kind of deadly mutation arose, then restrictions could and should be brought back in.

cfy
would is not a word I would use with this isos at the rudder

 

[Artaxerxes]

Prince Charles was at an event last night and guess what he’s been diagnosed with.

British Asian Trust reception at the British Museum | Prince of Wales

The Prince of Wales and The Duchess of Cornwall tonight attended a reception for the British Asian Trust, a charity founded by His Royal Highness in 2007 to support disadvantaged communities in South Asia.

www.princeofwales.gov.uk

Priti and Rishi were there to

 

[Dogsauce]

Apparently Farage has been banging on about the 17k figure during his GB News shows, but I think we can all agree he's a hopelessly clueless gimp.

I removed a shitty lamppost sticker on my way home last night that was using the ONS logo and making claims of much lower deaths (I think they got it down to 6,000 something). This stuff is just passed around and misprepresented eagerly by loons.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Prince Charles was at an event last night and guess what he’s been diagnosed with.

And guess who he went to see two days beforehand.
Love the quote from The Mirror: "Prince Charles catching coronavirus a second time reminds us the pandemic isn't over". Like, cheers, I was wondering why I'm kipping on my own sofa and not hugging my kids this week

 

[Steel Icarus]

Has there been any research into whether people who have recently had Covid - Omicron - can still be carriers and pass it on to others despite having little chance of getting it again themselves?

 

[Buddy Bradley]

If some kind of deadly mutation arose, then restrictions could and would be brought back in.

That's what I don't get with the removal of all the restrictions. We seem to be acting as if just because Omicron was far milder than the original strains, therefore we don't need to worry about Covid any more. But we KNOW that variants will keep appearing, and they won't always have the same characteristics as Omicron. Seems rather pre-emptive to declare it's all over already.

 

[Boris Sprinkler]

Has there been any research into whether people who have recently had Covid - Omicron - can still be carriers and pass it on to others despite having little chance of getting it again themselves?

I am presuming not. In my corona pas it says i have immunity until july the 5th having cuaght it in beginning of january So that is magic. Or something. I haven't looked into the science behind it, but the government say it and I trust them implicitly.

 

[prunus]

That's what I don't get with the removal of all the restrictions. We seem to be acting as if just because Omicron was far milder than the original strains, therefore we don't need to worry about Covid any more. But we KNOW that variants will keep appearing, and they won't always have the same characteristics as Omicron. Seems rather pre-emptive to declare it's all over already.

Just because this piece of misinformation seems to be gaining traction: omicron is not intrinsically milder than the ‘original’ strains - it is milder than delta, but is more virulent than the original Wuhan strain of lockdown 1. The reason we are seeing such apparent mildness in effect is because of the vaccinations. Without them we would be in a world of pain.

Imagine if they’d taken 5 years to develop as was being suggested as a plausible timeline back at the beginning…

 

[two sheds]

Imagine if they’d taken 5 years to develop as was being suggested as a plausible timeline back at the beginning…

Wouldn't have been a problem, we'd all have caught it and built up natural immunity like Johnson wanted right at the start

Those of us who hadn't died, that is.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

That's what I don't get with the removal of all the restrictions. We seem to be acting as if just because Omicron was far milder than the original strains, therefore we don't need to worry about Covid any more. But we KNOW that variants will keep appearing, and they won't always have the same characteristics as Omicron. Seems rather pre-emptive to declare it's all over already.

I suppose the question as far as that goes is whether restrictions now have any real impact on what would happen in that situation? A higher rate of infection now might actually improve outcomes. You could argue that reintroducing restrictions wouldn't be accepted but I think people in general have demonstrated they're more than capable of dealing with it (despite the endless 'everyone is shit' whining.)

I know Johnson would love to declare victory and that doing so would be ridiculous but I don't think that in itself means restrictions should be retained right now does it?

 

[Dogsauce]

Just because this piece of misinformation seems to be gaining traction: omicron is not intrinsically milder than the ‘original’ strains - it is milder than delta, but is more virulent than the original Wuhan strain of lockdown 1. The reason we are seeing such apparent mildness in effect is because of the vaccinations. Without them we would be in a world of pain.

Yep - that’s why roughly 3000 people a day are dying in the US, because of a high level of vaccine/mask avoidance meaning there are big chunks of the population that are basically facing the same threat as early 2020.

 

[elbows]

Sadly no surprise to hear about the push to end mass testing sooner rather than later, but oh look they may have even explored the possibility of pushing even harder and deadlier:

One source said the Treasury had even questioned at one point whether PCR testing was still necessary for the immunosuppressed, who are eligible for antivirals if they test positive, although this was denied by the government.

UK Treasury pushes to end most free Covid testing despite experts’ warnings

Most PCR testing for people with symptoms could be scrapped by end of March in plans to ‘live with virus’

www.theguardian.com

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Sadly no surprise to hear about the push to end mass testing sooner rather than later, but oh look they may have even explored the possibility of pushing even harder and deadlier:

UK Treasury pushes to end most free Covid testing despite experts’ warnings

Most PCR testing for people with symptoms could be scrapped by end of March in plans to ‘live with virus’

www.theguardian.com

was it not DT who said "if you don't test it doesn't happen" or some such?

 

[two sheds]

UK investigates COVID variant combining Delta, Omicron

British health officials are investigating a new coronavirus variant which combines features from the highly-contagious Omicron strain with the more dangerous Delta variant, according to an initial report. An update from the UK Health Security Agency included “Delta x Omicron Recombinant” as a...

bnonews.com

British health officials are investigating a new coronavirus variant which combines features from the highly-contagious Omicron strain with the more dangerous Delta variant, according to an initial report.

An update from the UK Health Security Agency included “Delta x Omicron Recombinant” as a signal that’s currently being monitored and investigated. The variant has been detected in the UK, it said.

Specific details about the variant have not yet been released and it’s unclear how many cases have been detected so far. The recombinant, which is also known as Deltacron, has so far not been designated as a variant of concern.

Ohhh goodie with the restrictions ending. Says not a variant of concern yet.

 

[existentialist]

UK investigates COVID variant combining Delta, Omicron

British health officials are investigating a new coronavirus variant which combines features from the highly-contagious Omicron strain with the more dangerous Delta variant, according to an initial report. An update from the UK Health Security Agency included “Delta x Omicron Recombinant” as a...

bnonews.com

Ohhh goodie with the restrictions ending. Says not a variant of concern yet.

I think they're trying to avoid being blamed for causing panic - AIR, the new variants that have turned out to be nasty were initially announced with similar mood music accompanying. It's one to watch...and in some ways would be the perfect storm: a "not too worrying" omicron strain that gets everybody nice and complacent, then WHAM, the worst of omicron and the worst of delta together. It could be messy.

 

[StoneRoad]

UK investigates COVID variant combining Delta, Omicron

British health officials are investigating a new coronavirus variant which combines features from the highly-contagious Omicron strain with the more dangerous Delta variant, according to an initial report. An update from the UK Health Security Agency included “Delta x Omicron Recombinant” as a...

bnonews.com

Ohhh goodie with the restrictions ending. Says not a variant of concern yet.

Oh, that's a * great prospect [ * sarcasm] , just what we need.

 

[two sheds]

Who could have predicted that though? Delta and Omicron variants coexisting and .... combining?

 

[2hats]

Small clusters at the moment. Appears to be BA.1 with ORF1ab substituted from delta, a mutation in which is part of what perhaps gave BA.1 something of an advantage in the first place (and even then BA.2 has been eating into that dominance, though intrinsically only has a marginal advantage, if at all).

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Crikey, you really can see how easily this feeds into loon circles.

'Oh really? Another variant? Deltacron? How fucking convenient'

All easily dealt with of course by giving proper clear, concise messaging and stop treating us like children with 'freedom day' and other such bollocks.

 

[elbows]

Who could have predicted that though? Delta and Omicron variants coexisting and .... combining?

Recombination of RNA viruses is a well known phenomenon.

However in the past during this pandemic, when 'evidence of recombination' has been suggested, some experts have been skeptical as to whether the evidence really proves that. Presumably this is down to some combination of the person in questions existing preferences and biases combined with complications in proving that the mutation was actually a result of recombination as opposed to one of the other mechanisms for genetic change.

Just one example of something I could quote from the internet:

The high mutation rate of RNA viruses makes it problematic to understand and resolve the role of recombination in generating genomic variation. Frequent mutations will (1) increase the likelihood of convergent mutations, particularly in regions subject to strong positive selection, causing sequence similarities that can be mistaken for recombination events, and (2) introduce new changes that accumulate and obscure recognition of past recombination events. We analyzed the patterns of recombination across Betacoronaviruses using a dedicated approach to distinguish true recombination from convergent mutations. The Betacoronaviruses comprise several populations that could be considered distinct biological species in that they do not engage in gene flow with one another. Moreover, recombination events within the Sarbecovirussubgenus, which includes SARS-CoV-2, are highly biased and predominate in the spike protein region, implicating recombination as having a substantial role in host tropism and viral ecology

Recombination events are concentrated in the spike protein region of Betacoronaviruses

Author summary The high mutation rate of RNA viruses makes it problematic to understand and resolve the role of recombination in generating genomic variation. Frequent mutations will (1) increase the likelihood of convergent mutations, particularly in regions subject to strong positive...

journals.plos.org

 

[2hats]

A handy overview of recombination in RNA viruses and the role it quite likely has been playing (to some greater or lesser degree) in the production of VOCs. Also, how it might potentially be leveraged to ultimately undermine the virus.

Plenty of Evidence for Recombination in SARS-CoV-2

Different variants of the virus behind the COVID-19 pandemic are swapping chunks of genetic material, but it’s not yet clear what implications that may have for public health.

www.the-scientist.com

 

[Left sider]

Swann, who has Covid, confirms all remaining restrictions will be lifted: Covid-19: Northern Ireland to remove all remaining restrictions

 

[elbows]

He actually tested positive yesterday.

 

[elbows]

This weeks ONS death certificate deaths:

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the latest weeks.

www.ons.gov.uk

• Of the 1,242 deaths involving COVID-19, 65.8% (817 deaths) had this recorded as the underlying cause of death in Week 5 compared with 71.2% in Week 4.

Last Thursdays 'for' & 'with' data for patients positive with Covid in English hospital beds (data actually goes up to 8th Feb):


Made using data from the 'Primary Diagnoses supplement spreadsheet from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[elbows]

This is what hospital admissions/diagnoses for England by age group look like, data goes up to February 12th and is taken from the downloads section of the UK dashboard.

I'm not posting regional versions of these graphs, but there are some differences by region. For example in the South East and South West regions, there hasnt really been a fall in admissions in the older age groups. But those regions also saw less of a rise in this wave in the first place.

I probably wont post these sorts of graphs much in future, unless there are new stories to tell with them.



edit - Given the regional variation I mentioned I suppose I should post one as an example, but I'm afraid its a bit messy since I'm not smoothing out the data in these graphs.

South East region: