Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Sunray]

was t

Readers may be amused to know that very shortly after posting this, our two year old middle daughter suddenly woke up and vomited all over her bed. I then spent the entire night awake and looking after her whilst she vomited at least a dozen times more, and now I have extensive diarrhoea and vomiting myself. Not covid as such, but to be fair, even the Oracle at Delphi didn't have a 100% record on the old prophecy stakes

Fate is cruel and mischievous.

 

[Gerry1time]

Indeed.

"O Fortuna
Velut luna
Statu variabilis
Semper crescis
Aut decrescis"

 

[IC3D]

You have displeased the Norovirus

 

[Gerry1time]

Hopefully my plentiful offerings from the very core of my being will appease it.

 

[Sunray]

Irreversibly releasing all the Lockdown measures [masks & social distancing, in particular] in July 2021, When the Delta variant was not actually under control. [although new cases were decreasing ... ]
and
referring to Omicron as less dangerous [so it has been able to spread].[\b]

They say today it’s 70% less likely for you to go to hospital and stay there.

South Africa has had this for many weeks and it’s not causing meltdown. They say there are differences. But we are all still people. The virus is the same.
The only problem I see is the unvaccinated because they are already the problem. So many then all getting sick at the same time.

 

[souljacker]

They say today it’s 70% less likely for you to go to hospital and stay there.

South Africa has had this for many weeks and it’s not causing meltdown. They say there are differences. But we are all still people. The virus is the same.
The only problem I see is the unvaccinated because they are already the problem. So many then all getting sick at the same time.

That's a bold statement

 

[wtfftw]

Yep, hard to fathom those "Good news - omicron is 50% less dangerous than delta but four times as infectious!" headlines.

It's also rarely mentioned that being 50% less severe than delta would still make omicron more severe than the original Wuhan strain.

I like to think I've been paying attention and I didn't realise that.

 

[Riklet]

Not lockdown but tougher restrictions from the 27th almost certain IMO. If the whole country ends up as fucked as London is now things will grind to a halt.

It's interesting (well sad and interesting) to see how omicron is hammering the places with previously low case rates and consistently low vaccine uptake. Nottingham, Manchester, Most of London, Oxford, Cambridge. Shows how easily it's evading immune response from previous exposure/infection maybe?

 

[elbows]

They say today it’s 70% less likely for you to go to hospital and stay there.

South Africa has had this for many weeks and it’s not causing meltdown. They say there are differences. But we are all still people. The virus is the same.
The only problem I see is the unvaccinated because they are already the problem. So many then all getting sick at the same time.

South Africa has a significantly younger population than us.

The ramifications of this difference will be felt in the weeks to come.

 

[magneze]

South Arica has a significantly younger population than us.

The ramifications of this difference will be felt in the weeks to come.

Indeed. In many ways the UK is the true guinea pig here.

 

[two sheds]

Yes we oldies are going to have to watch ourselves. It's dogs that will be my downfall, I've been particularly careful since I've got a chest infection and have started antibiotics and prednisolone which buggers about with your immune system.

Yesterday when I went out to deliver cards I saw an acquaintance in his car with a lovely black retriever in the back. I asked to give a treat and the dog stretched towards me for a fussing and I virtually lent into the car towards him. Just before acquaintance drove off he said 'coronavirus is terrible isn't it, I've just heard my daughter has tested positive'

(at self)

 

[prunus]

We’ve been waiting 48 hours now for a result for my son (-ve LFT but a bit of a cough); we were told up to 72 hours at the time.

73 hours and counting…

 

[elbows]

The UK government’s chief scientific adviser has hit back at accusations from Conservative MPs that epidemiological modellers had “spread gloom” about the Omicron variant.

Sir Patrick Vallance said it was not the responsibility of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) “to take a particular policy stance or to either spread gloom or give Panglossian optimism”.

He used an article in the Times to respond to criticism that was widely circulated among Tory MPs and ministers that suggested Sage’s Omicron modelling had been an exercise in fear-mongering.

In an apparent riposte, Vallance wrote science was “self-correcting” and about making “advances by overturning previous dogma and challenging accepted truths”.

He wrote: “Encouraging a range of opinions, views and interpretation of data is all part of the process. No scientist would ever claim, in this fast-changing and unpredictable pandemic, to have a monopoly of wisdom on what happens next.”

Vallance said modellers were “trying to model lots of different scenarios of how the wave of Omicron might grow, determine which factors are likely to have the biggest impact on spread and its consequences, and to assess how different interventions might alter the outcomes”.

He added: “They do not, contrary to what you might have heard, only model the worst outcomes.”

Vallance hits back at Tory accusations of Omicron fear-mongering

Chief scientific adviser responds to criticism that Sage modelling has ‘spread gloom’ about Omicron variant

www.theguardian.com

 

[Artaxerxes]

Readers may be amused to know that very shortly after posting this, our two year old middle daughter suddenly woke up and vomited all over her bed. I then spent the entire night awake and looking after her whilst she vomited at least a dozen times more, and now I have extensive diarrhoea and vomiting myself. Not covid as such, but to be fair, even the Oracle at Delphi didn't have a 100% record on the old prophecy stakes.

Norovirus?

That is an absolute horrorshow.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Vallance hits back at Tory accusations of Omicron fear-mongering

Chief scientific adviser responds to criticism that Sage modelling has ‘spread gloom’ about Omicron variant

www.theguardian.com

You can read the full, paywall busted, Times article here - archive.ph

 

[IC3D]

Norovirus?

That is an absolute horrorshow.

Yea. Hand hygiene and clean surfaces needed or it will move on to its next victim

 

[Gerry1time]

Yea. Hand hygiene and clean surfaces needed or it will move on to its next victim

I've been bleaching any hard surface the vomit has touched, and hot washing and drying all fabrics. Whether it will be enough, I dunno...

 

[elbows]

 

[pesh]

Norovirus?

That is an absolute horrorshow.

more of a shitshow

 

[20Bees]

Are people being told if their positive test is proved to be omicron and if so, how quickly? Advice from work for close contacts of a positive case is to attend work and take a daily LFT before starting the shift, unless the positive contact has omicron, in which case to stay at home and isolate.
If it takes several days to confirm the variant, and the positive contact has recovered and is testing negative by then, the advice seems flawed.

ETA perhaps this should have gone in the omicron thread?

 

[stdP]

Yep, hard to fathom those "Good news - omicron is 50% less dangerous than delta but four times as infectious!" headlines.

50 is a much bigger number than four, so when you ignore the doom-mongers and weigh up the maths properly, omicron is 46 less dangerous than delta.

Not covid as such, but to be fair, even the Oracle at Delphi didn't have a 100% record on the old prophecy stakes.

Given your avatar I feel I can get away with posting up this GIF I made yesterday again.

View attachment 302543

Hope you get better soon for your next dose of sprouts.

 

[Supine]

Are people being told if their positive test is proved to be omicron and if so, how quickly? Advice from work for close contacts of a positive case is to attend work and take a daily LFT before starting the shift, unless the positive contact has omicron, in which case to stay at home and isolate.
If it takes several days to confirm the variant, and the positive contact has recovered and is testing negative by then, the advice seems flawed.

ETA perhaps this should have gone in the omicron thread?

Not every test can tell so it’s probably best to assume any case is omicron. Doesn’t sound like great work advice to me.

 

[_Russ_]

They say today it’s 70% less likely for you to go to hospital and stay there.

Up to 70% less likely

 

[andysays]

Not every test can tell so it’s probably best to assume any case is omicron. Doesn’t sound like great work advice to me.

Especially given that the proportion of all cases which are Omicron has been rising rapidly (don't know what the current figure is thought to be ATM)

 

[elbows]

In regards the 'London hospital admissions reaching 400 as a threshold story', todays number was another big leap compared to the previous 2 days where it was around the 300 level.

It has now reached 386.

This data will now not be published for 3 days due to weekend & Christmas.

This is how admissions by age group (one of which is stupidly broad) for the London region looks for the pandemic so far, Data actually goes up to the admissions date of December 22nd despite the 19th being the last date shown on the labels.

Unfortunately I'd say this data is already well on the way to justifying my stance in this wave - strong action is required and the optimists, liars and delayers have doomed us again.

 

[Wilf]

122k today. Realise its an odd time, with more taking tests but against that with schools finishing, along with other variations from normal weeks. But ultimately all the indicators going in the wrong direction.

 

[brogdale]

122k today. Realise its an odd time, with more taking tests but against that with schools finishing, along with other variations from normal weeks. But ultimately all the indicators going in the wrong direction.

Yebbut...good old (can't even bring myself to type his fucking name in there) stood up to the commie scientists and made sure we all had a great Christmas...cough, snuffle...cough

 

[gentlegreen]

Bristol has gained some black bits, and my own area looks fairly sure to turn within days ...

 

[two sheds]

In regards the 'London hospital admissions reaching 400 as a threshold story', todays number was another big leap compared to the previous 2 days where it was around the 300 level.

It has now reached 386.

This data will now not be published for 3 days due to weekend & Christmas.

This is how admissions by age group (one of which is stupidly broad) for the London region looks for the pandemic so far, Data actually goes up to the admissions date of December 22nd despite the 19th being the last date shown on the labels.

Unfortunately I'd say this data is already well on the way to justifying my stance in this wave - strong action is required and the optimists, liars and delayers have doomed us again.

View attachment 302759

18-64 admissions highest because there are more of them in the population presumably and omicron affects older people disproportionately? Although I'm not sure that makes sense.

 

[elbows]

18-64 admissions higher because there are more of them in the population presumably.

Its a stupidly broad age group that infuriates me. But data which splits that group into a series of more appropriate groups only comes out once a month and is always out of date by the time it arrives, so I can only use that version with much hindsight.

Positive cases in older age groups tend to come a bit later too, so for example the people that thought it was somehow appropriate to start going on about a peak in positive cases in London a while ago, leading them to anticipate a peak in hospitalisations much sooner than was ever likely to be the case, were misguided. The overall positive numbers are skewed by a bunch of younger age groups that make up a large proportion of cases, and are more subject to changes in testing behaviour as well as genuine rapid changes. I have no exact prediction about case peaks in London, so I have no prediction about a peak date for hospital admissions in that region either. And Christmas will affect attitudes to testing, availability of testing and publication of results, so it will be hard for me to untangle that over the next week. In theory there are many more days of rising hospital admissions already 'baked in' by infections that have already happened, so it is a bit hard to imagine how the shit will not really hit the fan in regards Londons hospital situation.