Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Covid in Wales: No early release from self-isolation
Wales will not follow England in reducing the time in self-isolation by providing negative tests.
www.bbc.co.uk
The England changes may well be dressed up as coming from 'health experts' but its actually only justifiable because of the negative consequences of so many people being off work. Since that includes health care workers, they can find this way to justify it, but ideally it wouldnt have been reduced in England in this way.
magneze
🎧
There are probably over 30 million 'Pauls' in the UK.
Also, 94% of statistics are made up on the spot.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
Using the "Covid-19 on death certificate" figure from the dashboard I get 0.25% of the total population
2hats
Dust.
Hospital trust admissions data are available internally and to select research groups on a (near-)daily basis. The national datasets typically take considerably longer to catch up with what is going on on the ground.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Also need to factor in things like the first wave deaths still being an undercount even when using death certificates - this shows up via excess mortality/overall mortality figures for the first wave. I'm not qualified to use different measurements for different waves in order to estimate what the 'real' number of deaths was, although I probably did attempt that in the past, but in too crude a fashion.
Likewise there probably are some better estimates for how many people have probably actually been infected so far, but I havent really looked into that much.
And depending on what picture we're trying to get from looking at infections and deaths, need to factor in that many of the infections happened during the vaccine era when protection was improved,
elbows
Well-Known Member
Ah yes, I have heard some people who have access to those data streams make references to that stuff that they are signed up to receive but cannot then just start randomly disclosing to the general public. 'Management data' type stuff that comes with various caveats but is considerably more timely.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Earlier I mentioned mental health as a reason I havent gone completely ballistic about the lack of restrictions in England this time. But there are other reasons I'm not doing a straightforward repeat of my stance from a year ago and the start of the pandemic this time - the complex immunity picture and the fact that behaviours and mixing patterns are key, and there are signs that there have been lots of changes to behaviour already since Omicron first popped up on the news.
Plus the responses I would have considered ideal would have required different messaging and a different balance of expectations and reasonable measures stretching back a long time, instead of the big mess we got with the government undermining trust and taking the piss, making unsustainable claims during the summer, etc etc.
Whatever the actual levels of hospitalisation and death we get this time turn out to be, they will be higher than they needed to be, leaving me unhappy. I still lack a firm sense of how bad it will actually get, but given modelling doesnt have huge behavioural changed baked into it apart from the scenarios where they model for formal introduction of various non-pharmaceutical interventions, introduced on specific dates, I can certainly retain hope it wont end up at the worst end of the spectrum of possibilities. Because plenty of such behavioural changes will have happened even without formal restrictions. Given how far we have diverged from the path I'd have preferred from first steps of the easing of restrictions in 2021 onwards, I do get a sense that its increasingly futile for me to shout about what we should have done. Beyond advising people generally about when the time to change behaviours significantly was (and in this case that was weeks ago and was rather underlined by the mood music in the news etc), I am a bit lost on these key fronts, and there will probably end up being contradictions in my stance as a result. My instincts still point towards some more formal restrictions than have actually been put in place, but I struggle to graft a reasonable version of that onto the state of affairs we find ourselves with this year. The well has been partially poisoned - hopefully this Omicron escape mutant has not escaped immunity to the extent that these mistakes will cause catastrophe this time, but we better hope another variant doesnt come along that can do a much larger job of demolishing the immunity wall that the establishment here have place so much reliance on.
Plus the responses I would have considered ideal would have required different messaging and a different balance of expectations and reasonable measures stretching back a long time, instead of the big mess we got with the government undermining trust and taking the piss, making unsustainable claims during the summer, etc etc.
Whatever the actual levels of hospitalisation and death we get this time turn out to be, they will be higher than they needed to be, leaving me unhappy. I still lack a firm sense of how bad it will actually get, but given modelling doesnt have huge behavioural changed baked into it apart from the scenarios where they model for formal introduction of various non-pharmaceutical interventions, introduced on specific dates, I can certainly retain hope it wont end up at the worst end of the spectrum of possibilities. Because plenty of such behavioural changes will have happened even without formal restrictions. Given how far we have diverged from the path I'd have preferred from first steps of the easing of restrictions in 2021 onwards, I do get a sense that its increasingly futile for me to shout about what we should have done. Beyond advising people generally about when the time to change behaviours significantly was (and in this case that was weeks ago and was rather underlined by the mood music in the news etc), I am a bit lost on these key fronts, and there will probably end up being contradictions in my stance as a result. My instincts still point towards some more formal restrictions than have actually been put in place, but I struggle to graft a reasonable version of that onto the state of affairs we find ourselves with this year. The well has been partially poisoned - hopefully this Omicron escape mutant has not escaped immunity to the extent that these mistakes will cause catastrophe this time, but we better hope another variant doesnt come along that can do a much larger job of demolishing the immunity wall that the establishment here have place so much reliance on.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
After moaning about Burnham earlier I am entirely unsurprised to see his night-time economies git Sacha Lord being featured on th BBC saying much the same thing:
Thats from the 15:38 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59764750
At least his last comment was sensible. But 'knee-jerk' and 'see the figures from the scientists', what use are those sentiments? We've seen lots of estimates from scientists already. If you want to wait till all the real world data is fully available with great certainty then (a) you dont need expert scientists to give you that data, the ramifications will show up clearly enough via simple hospital and death data and (b) its already too late.
Admittedly given we have several more early estimates about Omicron disease severity available now, it would be most useful to see some updated modelling that takes those particular possibilities into account, building upon the last set of modelling. But unless the modelling results are what politicians etc really want to hear, I suspect they'll still be tempted to wait for more real data, and that wait further fucks up the timing of any further required measures, decreasing how much good those measures can achieve.
Thats from the 15:38 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59764750
At least his last comment was sensible. But 'knee-jerk' and 'see the figures from the scientists', what use are those sentiments? We've seen lots of estimates from scientists already. If you want to wait till all the real world data is fully available with great certainty then (a) you dont need expert scientists to give you that data, the ramifications will show up clearly enough via simple hospital and death data and (b) its already too late.
Admittedly given we have several more early estimates about Omicron disease severity available now, it would be most useful to see some updated modelling that takes those particular possibilities into account, building upon the last set of modelling. But unless the modelling results are what politicians etc really want to hear, I suspect they'll still be tempted to wait for more real data, and that wait further fucks up the timing of any further required measures, decreasing how much good those measures can achieve.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I suppose I should point out that there is still the prospect of some fresh restrictions to come even if the authorities think the peak will be reached via existing behavioural changes, mood music etc. Because we saw with the Delta wave that combinations of mood music, behavioural changes, self-isolation 'pingdemic', school holidays etc and the virus having somewhat fewer fresh victims withing very easy reach, can induce a peak. The problem is then what happens next - with long formal restrictions in place for ages after the peaks of the first two waves, we saw case numbers come right down over many months. That didnt happen with Delta, cases carried on at rather high rates for months and months, a prolonged grinding pressure on services.
So we need to keep that in mind when it comes to what level of pressure authorities think the system can cope with. It isnt just about pressure at the very peak. Especially given that the school holiday is short compared to the summer one, and the disadvantages of winter, I wont be surprised if authorities still end up having to go further in England, even if an obvious peak is demonstrated to have happened. And on a related note I'll continue to monitor cases by age, because a big chunk of the overall case numbers are in young people, and when those numbers drop it can hide the fact that ases in older, more vulnerable people can still be high or growing beyond the overall peak - some of that has been seen in London data recently, as I covered via a lot of graphs yesterday ( My graphs were London specific and very premature but done then in response to other peoples chatter about a London peak #816 ).
Reasons they might still hope to dodge that need for more formal restrictions include the variant being so fast that it really burned through a big chunk of the susceptible people rapidly, and the possibility that the impact of boosters could be even more significant than we can dare assume yet.
So we need to keep that in mind when it comes to what level of pressure authorities think the system can cope with. It isnt just about pressure at the very peak. Especially given that the school holiday is short compared to the summer one, and the disadvantages of winter, I wont be surprised if authorities still end up having to go further in England, even if an obvious peak is demonstrated to have happened. And on a related note I'll continue to monitor cases by age, because a big chunk of the overall case numbers are in young people, and when those numbers drop it can hide the fact that ases in older, more vulnerable people can still be high or growing beyond the overall peak - some of that has been seen in London data recently, as I covered via a lot of graphs yesterday ( My graphs were London specific and very premature but done then in response to other peoples chatter about a London peak #816 ).
Reasons they might still hope to dodge that need for more formal restrictions include the variant being so fast that it really burned through a big chunk of the susceptible people rapidly, and the possibility that the impact of boosters could be even more significant than we can dare assume yet.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Well they are watching the hospital data more than the case data, and unless that data shows very dramatic things or thresholds being breached they will find the wiggle room to delay (or avoid doing things completely).
edit - but I should have also reference the sort of things 2hats mentioned earlier, that they get some data in some forms earlier than us, so their view of the horizon is better than mine.
edit - but I should have also reference the sort of things 2hats mentioned earlier, that they get some data in some forms earlier than us, so their view of the horizon is better than mine.
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Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yeah, I get that, it's just the bullshit and dishonesty I'm sick of. Even if it turns out this wave doesn't produce a level of hospital admission that freezes the NHS, the government weren't right to delay and div about. Every damn time it's delay, obfuscation and inaction.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And even if they dont make a big mess out of that, the press in this country will.
Also in addition to the direct damage done by the stupid games, they also get in the way of all the sensible discussions that could be had about the quality of expert analysis, data and modelling, underlying issues, and tackling the virus on far more fronts than the UK establishment can be bothered to do properly. I'm rather depressed about that right now.
Both the Delta and the Omicron waves offer new insight into what this country would have been like if it had been possible for them to get away with the governments original 'plan A herd immunity' approach at the start of the pandemic. And the role the press would have played. And the extent that people woudl have gone along with it and justified it based on often delicately balanced sense of priorities.
Also in addition to the direct damage done by the stupid games, they also get in the way of all the sensible discussions that could be had about the quality of expert analysis, data and modelling, underlying issues, and tackling the virus on far more fronts than the UK establishment can be bothered to do properly. I'm rather depressed about that right now.
Both the Delta and the Omicron waves offer new insight into what this country would have been like if it had been possible for them to get away with the governments original 'plan A herd immunity' approach at the start of the pandemic. And the role the press would have played. And the extent that people woudl have gone along with it and justified it based on often delicately balanced sense of priorities.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
This may help answer some of the queries above concerning why some prolonged close contacts don't test positive
People testing negative for Covid-19 despite exposure may have ‘immune memory’
Study says some individuals clear virus rapidly due to a strong immune response from existing T-cells, meaning tests record negative resultwww.theguardian.com
Wed 10 Nov 2021 16.45 GMT
We all know that person who, despite their entire household catching Covid-19, has never tested positive for the disease. Now scientists have found an explanation, showing that a proportion of people experience “abortive infection” in which the virus enters the body but is cleared by the immune system’s T-cells at the earliest stage meaning that PCR and antibody tests record a negative result.
About 15% of healthcare workers who were tracked during the first wave of the pandemic in London, England, appeared to fit this scenario.
Having listened to four of my housemates coughing for a week, one got pretty sick, I’m relieved I believe this is what happened to me. I did feel tired and achy just before they all started getting sick. I went to bed, slept for ages and f felt fine the next day.
People kept texting me, “Are you sick yet?”
It appears you can be immune.
Supine
Newt Member
Sounds like you could have given it to them!
shifting gears
Well-Known Member
How much do you bench bro?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Positive thinking!
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Rees-Mogg quoted Shakespeare & it was an embarrassing self-own
"Thou art a twat with nought to blather so thou thinks thou art smart by quoting ye olde shite," wrote one person in response.
www.thelondoneconomic.com
Gerry1time
Did a wee in Dirac's toilet
I've been slightly wondering if I may be the same. All my life I've been certain that I've never had flu, only bad colds, given the amount of people who have exclaimed to me "Oh, you'd know if you had flu! It's awful! You feel like you're dying!". I therefore assumed, as I'd never felt that bad from a cold, that I'd never had flu. However, now in my mid 40's, never having caught flu seems unlikely. So the alternative may be that I'm to some degree immune from flu. I wonder if the same extends to covid too.
We're pretty sure that the good lady had covid right back in March 2020, as she had a bad flu episode with a fever, where she also lost her sense of taste and smell, and one night her fitbit recorded really low oxygen levels too. She never got tested as testing wasn't a thing back then, but assuming it was covid, how I didn't get it at the same time I've no idea. For whilst she was pretty ill, I just had a bit of a cough and a runny nose. Perhaps this was my covid, and covid counts amongst the 'flus' to which I'm slightly immune.
Famous last words of course. I'm aware that posting this will now lead to me getting really bad covid.
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
I was laid properly low by flu in 1967-ish, 1978-ish, 2013, 2018 and 2019.
I worked in a university for 40 years as a teaching room support technician and right from the start I knew I would be laid low by something once a year - maybe fever, mostly tiredness .. rarely much in the way of respiratory issues - and I would be back on my bike on the Monday - and daily cycling from the age of 27 definitely marked a change in symptoms.
In 2018 and especially 2019 underlying borderline diabetes caught up with me and it took me a long time to recover ...
My theory is that in handling teaching equipment I was effectively getting vaccinated against whatever was going around - completely preventing "colds" - and what was left was quite likely actually flu - but only a moderate dose of it ... though a lot of the time I would wonder if I was "sickening" for something that never emerged.
Usually I would literally sneeze only twice as an indicator that I was going to be out of action for a few days ...
2019 was particularly prescient in terms of thoughts of how I would regard viral infections in future years ...
I worked in a university for 40 years as a teaching room support technician and right from the start I knew I would be laid low by something once a year - maybe fever, mostly tiredness .. rarely much in the way of respiratory issues - and I would be back on my bike on the Monday - and daily cycling from the age of 27 definitely marked a change in symptoms.
In 2018 and especially 2019 underlying borderline diabetes caught up with me and it took me a long time to recover ...
My theory is that in handling teaching equipment I was effectively getting vaccinated against whatever was going around - completely preventing "colds" - and what was left was quite likely actually flu - but only a moderate dose of it ... though a lot of the time I would wonder if I was "sickening" for something that never emerged.
Usually I would literally sneeze only twice as an indicator that I was going to be out of action for a few days ...
2019 was particularly prescient in terms of thoughts of how I would regard viral infections in future years ...
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wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
It's been nice knowing you, fare well on the other shore.
I had some nasty respiratory infection when I was 11 (or 12? can't remember) where I was off school for a month (or 2) which involved a hell of a lot of bum injections and that was (in french) classified as an Atypical Pneumonia (Pneumopahy = SARS is the best equivalent translation I could find in english, ie: I didn't test positive for waht they were looking for), I remember having a great time being totally off my tits (pre any drug use), my mother thinking I was about to die and the GP turning for a home visit in the middle of the night.
All a bit of a hazy memory these days.
I still get the odd man-flu though.
Thora
Differently Ethical
I think I had similar when my toddler daughter had it - during the week she was sick with lots of snot and coughing at me, I had one or two days when I felt a bit achey and real tired but tested negative and no other symptoms.
A year later (post vaccination) I had extended contact with two other children who were very sick with it and I didn't catch it again, negative lfts and pcr.
Cloo
Banana for scale
I'm wondering what will prove to die the most damaging misleading/lying headline/story of the pandemic.
'Masks might make it worse' leading to hesitancy in adopting
'LFTs only pick up 40/50/60% of cases' which appears to have been from inappropriately comparing to PCRs, and has led to a lot of people feeling they're worthless. I mean, they're not a panacea, but it sounds after UCL study like they are much better than was originally widely touted
'Omicron is 50% less likely dangerous!' proving very dangerous as evidently being used as the basis for government policy in England while conveniently ignoring the context of its infectiousness
'Masks might make it worse' leading to hesitancy in adopting
'LFTs only pick up 40/50/60% of cases' which appears to have been from inappropriately comparing to PCRs, and has led to a lot of people feeling they're worthless. I mean, they're not a panacea, but it sounds after UCL study like they are much better than was originally widely touted
'Omicron is 50% less likely dangerous!' proving very dangerous as evidently being used as the basis for government policy in England while conveniently ignoring the context of its infectiousness
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Irreversibly releasing all the Lockdown measures [masks & social distancing, in particular] in July 2021, When the Delta variant was not actually under control. [although new cases were decreasing ... ]
and
referring to Omicron as less dangerous [so it has been able to spread].
Yossarian
⏭️
Yep, hard to fathom those "Good news - omicron is 50% less dangerous than delta but four times as infectious!" headlines.
It's also rarely mentioned that being 50% less severe than delta would still make omicron more severe than the original Wuhan strain.
Gerry1time
Did a wee in Dirac's toilet
Readers may be amused to know that very shortly after posting this, our two year old middle daughter suddenly woke up and vomited all over her bed. I then spent the entire night awake and looking after her whilst she vomited at least a dozen times more, and now I have extensive diarrhoea and vomiting myself. Not covid as such, but to be fair, even the Oracle at Delphi didn't have a 100% record on the old prophecy stakes.
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