Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Plus I wanted a summer with Covid suppressed so that hospital etc staff had some period where they could begin to recharge their batteries a little before another wave arrived. Instead we got a wave that just kept on dragging on, and now another wave gets to sit on top of that one.

 

[StoneRoad]

I was thinking this yesterday - was on the tube and FINALLY almost 100% compliance in our carriage and I just thought 'See? It's not that fucking hard; we needed to have been doing this since first lockdown last year and to keep doing it next year. If you can do it now, you can keep doing it!
Would it have stopped COVID in its tracks? No. Would we have been in a much better position with 1000s fewer dead or left with chronic illness? Yes.

I think people doing more of two other things would help ...
a) properly testing & isolating with symptoms or +ve test [which also needs £££ support]
and
b) not just masking but also social distancing & things like wfh [also something with school aged kids]

 

[Cloo]

It doesn't help that testing and isolating info is confusing and changable, or that kids are expected to go into school when someone in their household has it. Honestly, if kids go back to school with Omicron in full swing it sounds like the whole class should be sent home the minute someone's confirmed to have it as it sounds like it's almost inevitable that multiple kids will develop it. I'm almost hoping we get it before term starts so I don't have the dilemma about trying to keep the kids off - in the event we do have it during term time I will try to keep them at home and string out tests for a day or two in the hope of keeping them off. That said, it's overwhelmingly likely that one or other kid will bring it home first.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I've worn a mask in shops since this started. Like I told my colleagues just because I'm paranoid and a hypochondriac doesn't mean I'm wrong lol

 

[Puddy_Tat]

BBC national news reporting from 'brixton high street' as covid central...

 

[platinumsage]

Yes, they had a notice on there yesterday, saying a new colour would be added today, for any areas with 1600+ cases per 100k.

Anyone remember at the start of this, when they introduced travel restrictions for any countries on 20+ cases per 100k?

Seems hard to believe now.

They do think carefully about the colours:

 

[pbsmooth]

Not sure where you read that, but...

View attachment 302205

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Daily numbers. Not 7 day. BBC.

 

[Spandex]

Daily numbers. Not 7 day. BBC.

Tuesday 14th Dec = 59,610 reported new cases
Tuesday 21st Dec = 90,629 reported new cases

Either you misheard, or were listening to someone talking bollocks.

 

[pbsmooth]

why so aggressive? and you're still wrong.

"Another 90,629 new Covid cases were reported across the UK on Tuesday - slightly down on the all-time highs announced last week."

Covid: No new restrictions in England before Christmas - Boris Johnson

But Boris Johnson says "we can't rule out any further measures after Christmas" as Omicron spreads fast.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Cloo]

Couldn't be anything to do with a shortage of tests at all then.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Couldn't be anything to do with a shortage of tests at all then.

This, I've seen a few comments about it peaking. Seems absurdly wishful thinking to me. We've had a wave of Delta that's rolled on at a steady 40-50k a day since July and now we've got omicron on top of that doubling those figures and lateral flows rarer that rocking horse shit.

 

[weepiper]

And on top of that, the people who aren't doing a test because they don't want to know they've got it and thus have it spoil their Christmas plans.

 

[two sheds]

Another factor that wasn't as bad during the other peaks, has been mentioned on here before but another reason to take omicron seriously.

Hospitals plan for ‘mass casualty’ event with up to one-third of staff sick

Exclusive: Christmas is going ahead but ‘we’re going to suffer for it afterwards’ says senior NHS source

www.independent.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Not the worst take on the uncertainty although its still too mild in tone for my liking when it comes to the gamble the government are taking. Because it wont just be a gamble ministers can lose, it could easily be a gamble lots of people pay for with their lives.

UK government’s wait for Omicron evidence is a high-stakes gamble

Analysis: ‘incontrovertible evidence’ is a tall order and in the meantime the NHS risks being overwhelmed

www.theguardian.com

 

[two sheds]

So is it time to isolate London from the rest of the UK before it's too late? I'd ask the local MP to close off the Tamar Bridge but it would be Eusteless.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

So is it time to isolate London from the rest of the UK before it's too late? I'd ask the local MP to close off the Tamar Bridge but it would be Eusteless.

it's way past too late, sorry.

 

[Riklet]

The next thing with masks to enforce is people wearing a proper medical or ffp2 mask on public transport not just their scarf round their face or their home made old pants one. I believe this is the rule in Germany and they give them out. Harsh but fair.

 

[teuchter]

They do think carefully about the colours:

I'm not convinced that colour scale is very accessible even for people with perfectly good colour vision. It looks like they've backed themselves into a corner not wanting to change the "lower" colours so there's no room for gradation at the top end. Surely it would be better to revise the whole scale. It was obviously not originally designed for this range of values.

 

[Elpenor]

So is it time to isolate London from the rest of the UK before it's too late? I'd ask the local MP to close off the Tamar Bridge but it would be Eusteless.

The second home cunts will be down in Cornwall already

 

[two sheds]

I know

 

[Spandex]

why so aggressive? and you're still wrong.

"Another 90,629 new Covid cases were reported across the UK on Tuesday - slightly down on the all-time highs announced last week."

Sorry if that came across as aggressive. All this shit is doing my head in.

All week there's been the Tory right and their echoes in the media downplaying how deep in the shit we are at the moment because save Xmas/save business/freedom! Forget about saving lives, it's probably only the economically inactive who'll die anyway. Probably good for the economy in the long run. Just a parade of cunts and their sidekicks.

I'm not including you in that, but your post must've triggered me.

On the figures: last week the figures shot up from high 40,000s/low 50,000s to 90,000s per day. The highest recorded by specimen date is last Wednesday with 102,875; by reported date Friday with 93,045. Today's reported figure is hardly down from that. Especially as the last two days have been weekend figures, which are usually lower, and today they've resolved a reporting error (positive LFTs followed by negative PCR tests weren't being taken off the total) so there's been some knocked off today's reported figure. And the figures always fluctuate day to day for various reasons, which is why the 7 day average is a good number to look at.

Anyway, it is good that the numbers aren't shooting up the last few days, but there's been a number of things change in the last week: schools closing for Xmas, Plan B's 'compulsory' mask wearing (I'm seeing a lot more masks than 2 weeks ago, indoors and outdoors), many people stopping going out as much, taking it more seriously etc. But we're a long way from being able to breath a sigh of relief yet. Omicron has had a head start in London and is still taking off in many other parts of the country. For all the cries of 'it's mild', which really seems to have cut through, we're still waiting to see about that (it very well might be, but the amount of people catching it at once will wipe any gains from that out).

The government has just taken a massive gamble, staking tens of thousands of lives on it not be as bad as those pesky scientists say it will. I find myself in the unusual position of hoping the right wing headbangers are right, because if they're wrong, there's going to be a horrific start to the new year.

 

[xenon]

What actually would be the optimum strategy, if for argument sake, furlow (SP) could be reintroduced for several months.

Lock down and flatten the curve, well squish the spike. For a few weeks as more boosters are given? Could that have a significant impact?

This would seem the only rattionalle for lock down AKA more restrictive measures. A short period whilst getting the booster to everyone that's going to have it. Keep mask wearing in shops, better impementation of ventilation systems but basically open after that.

People will still catch coronavirus but maybe the cases will fall due to light measures, maybe they won't. The hope being the number that fall seriously ill even after a booster is manageable.

Otherwise if a lock down extends further than that, longer than after everyone who wants a vaccine including booster, has had one, we're into Spring. With Omicron still out there, possibly another variant of concern and around we go again.

 

[xenon]

But if there will still be millions of cases because it's so viralent, even with masks, windows open whatever, we're still gonna have quite a few deaths unfortunately. As that small percentage of a large number thing. Someone in any govt would have to set an acceptable level for that.

Do not read this as supporting what Johnson et al aren't doing.

 

[l'Otters]

It’d be a better economic decision to up the grades of ppe for everyone. Starting with nurses etc as the most urgent, but also for everyone else.

If preventing disruption to schools was really a priority, investment in ventilation snd co2 monitors would have happened already.

Full funding for self isolation including accommodation where needed could still be implemented and would pay off.

There’s a whole spectrum of things that could be done between “everything carrying on regardless” and “lockdown”

But the only things which seem to have caught on for some ppl is “lockdowns”.

 

[platinumsage]

What actually would be the optimum strategy, if for argument sake, furlow (SP) could be reintroduced for several months.

Lock down and flatten the curve, well squish the spike. For a few weeks as more boosters are given? Could that have a significant impact?

This would seem the only rattionalle for lock down AKA more restrictive measures. A short period whilst getting the booster to everyone that's going to have it. Keep mask wearing in shops, better impementation of ventilation systems but basically open after that.

People will still catch coronavirus but maybe the cases will fall due to light measures, maybe they won't. The hope being the number that fall seriously ill even after a booster is manageable.

Otherwise if a lock down extends further than that, longer than after everyone who wants a vaccine including booster, has had one, we're into Spring. With Omicron still out there, possibly another variant of concern and around we go again.

Older and vulnerable people should be boosted by now, so it’s actually the best time for them to meet omicron, otherwise we get into waning booster immunity and fourth jab territory as Israel are doing. A full lockdown into spring while these groups sit at home with waning immunity doesn’t make sense.

So really it should be about just bringing the r number down enough that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed. What exactly would be needed to achieve this is of course why everyone is continuously scrabbling for new data.

 

[bimble]

Theres a drug now, approved for use by the nhs, which is believed to reduce the chance of vulnerable covid patients needing to be hospitalised by 70%. If thats true and access is ramped up then it will have a big impact, will help massively. But doesn't seem to be being factored into the conversation and predictions at all for some reason? Or maybe it is and i just haven't noticed.
UK's most vulnerable people to receive life-saving COVID-19 treatments in the community

 

[LDC]

Theres a drug now, approved for use by the nhs, which is believed to reduce the chance of vulnerable covid patients needing to be hospitalised by 70%. If thats true and access is ramped up then it will have a big impact, will help massively. But doesn't seem to be being factored into the conversation and predictions at all for some reason? Or maybe it is and i just haven't noticed.
UK's most vulnerable people to receive life-saving COVID-19 treatments in the community

It has been mentioned in some of the more lengthy briefings and articles, it just gets mentioned as 'new drugs' though often rather than anything more specific. It's definitely a factor in the calculations as to what to do.

 

[bimble]

I see that there's mounting evidence that the astra zeneca vaccine 'showed no ability to stop Omicron infection six months after vaccination', so that's most of India's vaccination program as well as ours up til now, plus the covax program. just talking about infection, as the other day, not severity of illness.

Most of the World’s Vaccines Likely Won’t Prevent Infection From Omicron (Published 2021)

They do seem to offer significant protection against severe illness, but the consequences of rapidly spreading infection worry many public health experts.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Supine]

I see that there's mounting evidence that the astra zeneca vaccine 'showed no ability to stop Omicron infection six months after vaccination', so that's most of India's vaccination program as well as ours up til now, plus the covax program. just talking about infection, as the other day, not severity of illness.

Most of the World’s Vaccines Likely Won’t Prevent Infection From Omicron (Published 2021)

They do seem to offer significant protection against severe illness, but the consequences of rapidly spreading infection worry many public health experts.

www.nytimes.com

I can’t read the article but AZ still protects against a lot of hospitalisations and almost all deaths. That shouldn’t be forgotten.

Protection against any infection at all is a different ball game and requires boosters, potentially regularly.

 

[bimble]

I can’t read the article but AZ still protects against a lot of hospitalisations and almost all deaths. That shouldn’t be forgotten.

Protection against any infection at all is a different ball game and requires boosters, potentially regularly.

yes. i mean, i don't suppose we know yet fully what it does with omicron severity? But people seem optimistic.

On the other hand, this looks looks like not great news (for long term prevention of severe disease post vaccination). But I don't know how to read these things..

DEFINE_ME

www.thelancet.com