Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

We’ve seen already how waiting for this shower to change the rules isn’t getting us out of this mess.

I find it weird that anyone who’s well informed about this pandemic as it’s been playing out in the uk, would only be willing to change their behaviour once the government tells us to.

We absolutely shouldn’t be here now, but they did away with all restrictions in July so we’re totally fucked now.

Umpteen other things could have been done to prevent this incoming public health crisis but we’ve got predatory disaster capitalist eugenicist nepotistic scum in power so here we are.

I'm not happy with what happened from July onwards. But, apart from the erosion of trust and filling peoples heads with the wrong idea about the extent we were sure to be able to live with Covid, the Omicron threat is a separate matter.

Because things like the raw R rate for Omicron and its immune escape potential are too high, changing the equations big time. Even if someone like me got to make the summer & autumn decisions and the winter plans, my plan would have had to change to cope with Omicron.

Speaking of July, I've been doing the thing where I break death data down into the separate waves, because very few seem to do this. It looks like Northern Ireland has had more Covid-related deaths from July 1st onwards than they recorded in the first wave! And Scotland has had nearly half as many deaths from July onwards as they recorded in the first wave. I'll post all the data at some point, because some regions of England also have a level of deaths from July onwards that are around or approaching 40% of the level of deaths recorded in the first wave! And for Wales its over 40%. I was using deaths where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate, but it may be a similar picture if I use deaths within 28 days of a test. Probably the only 'unfair' thing about my sums is that rather a lot of first wave Covid deaths were not recorded as such (due to initial attitudes towards cause and lack of testing at the start), so for the first wave we have to use excess mortality data to get a truer picture.

 

[l'Otters]

Other things eg
Proper FFP3 grade masks for all healthcare staff
(General public should be getting these too)
Keep mask mandates
Recruit more NHS staff and pay them properly
Expand hospital capacity
CO2 monitors and HEPA filters for classrooms
Funded support for self isolation

Not just those but it’s a start of a longer list

 

[l'Otters]

I'm not happy with what happened from July onwards. But, apart from the erosion of trust and filling peoples heads with the wrong idea about the extent we were sure to be able to live with Covid, the Omicron threat is a separate matter.

Because things like the raw R rate for Omicron and its immune escape potential are too high, changing the equations big time. Even if someone like me got to make the summer & autumn decisions and the winter plans, my plan would have had to change to cope with Omicron.

Speaking of July, I've been doing the thing where I break death data down into the separate waves, because very few seem to do this. It looks like Northern Ireland has had more Covid-related deaths from July 1st onwards than they recorded in the first wave! And Scotland has had nearly half as many deaths from July onwards as they recorded in the first wave. I'll post all the data at some point, because some regions of England also have a level of deaths from July onwards that are around or approaching 40% of the level of deaths recorded in the first wave!

Yeah agreed, omicron changed things.. my point was more that we wouldn’t be quite so far up shit creek right now if he had more spare capacity in the healthcare system & a bit more protective infrastructure in place to make eg schools safer to be in.


Edited to add I have shit reception so my posting is prob even more out of sync with the flow of discussion than usual.

 

[platinumsage]

Yeah agreed, omicron changed things.. my point was more that we wouldn’t be quite so far up shit creek right now if he had more spare capacity in the healthcare system & a bit more protective infrastructure in place to make eg schools safer to be in.

Doubling healthcare capacity might have given us an extra day or two before it was overwhelmed, if the doubling rate of the virus were to continue to that extent. Crudely, if you have e.g. 800 beds full and it doubles in two days, you need 1600 beds two days later. Tinkering with systems in schools wouldn't have made any difference. Like it or not, the best defence against a highly transmissible variant was always vaccines. We certainly could have boosted more people sooner.

 

[editor]

A lot of the hospitality industry is already in a sort of quasi-lockdown state, with pubs struggling to find enough staff and customers to justify staying open.

 

[pbsmooth]

some pubs have shut already round my way due to the above

 

[elbows]

Yeah agreed, omicron changed things.. my point was more that we wouldn’t be quite so far up shit creek right now if he had more spare capacity in the healthcare system & a bit more protective infrastructure in place to make eg schools safer to be in.


Edited to add I have shit reception so my posting is prob even more out of sync with the flow of discussion than usual.

Yes we can certainly add 'so we dont have to have Whitty explain to us how we are dealing with two waves at the same time' to the list of reasons not to let the Delta wave carry on marching throughout summer, autumn and winter.

 

[Artaxerxes]

A lot of the hospitality industry is already in a sort of quasi-lockdown state, with pubs struggling to find enough staff and customers to justify staying open.

Half the museums appear to be shutting down over Christmas

 

[two sheds]

pubs and the like should be having a rent holiday, the pub chains on the whole can afford it. Pubcos are perfectly happy to continue taking rents, and will be perfectly happy to sell pubs off for luxury flats if the landlords can't pay the rents any more. Fat chance though if there's a threat to tory party coffers.

 

[andysays]

A lot of the hospitality industry is already in a sort of quasi-lockdown state, with pubs struggling to find enough staff and customers to justify staying open.

Covid: Chancellor announces £1bn fund for hospitality​

No mention of actually ordering them to shut though...

 

[platinumsage]

Half the museums appear to be shutting down over Christmas

That's much better than 2019 when they all shut:

London Museums open over Christmas

 

[AverageJoe]

Covid: Chancellor announces £1bn fund for hospitality​

No mention of actually ordering them to shut though...

Not yet.

My guess is midnight boxing day after we get a 5pm TV address from Boris

 

[editor]

Covid: Chancellor announces £1bn fund for hospitality​

No mention of actually ordering them to shut though...

I doubt if that will be if any help to zero hours bar staff, musicians, promoters etc.

 

[cupid_stunt]

pubs and the like should be having a rent holiday, the pub chains on the whole can afford it. Pubcos are perfectly happy to continue taking rents, and will be perfectly happy to sell pubs off for luxury flats if the landlords can't pay the rents any more. Fat chance though if there's a threat to tory party coffers.

Worthing council recently bought a former pub to covert into a dozen or so units for the homeless, I think this should be a national policy, to stop pub chains selling at the premium so luxury flats can be developed, it could make them think again about rents & keeping pubs open, and those that still close, would be put to worthwhile use.

 

[elbows]

I did not notice the huge and sudden discrepancy in testing data that turned out to be due to the dodgy lab. However once I had hindsight and so actually bothered to look back at the data, it became clear that anyone looking properly at that data without the benefit of hindsight should still have noticed there was an obvious problem quite quickly.

And so it is not surprising that we now have this story:

Discrepancies in Covid test results were spotted a month before testing was halted at one lab, court papers show.

More than 43,000 people received incorrect results after errors at the Immensa laboratory in Wolverhampton.

Many of those affected live in the south west of England.

Documents show the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) was alerted to the unusual figures on 14 September. Tests at the lab were suspended on 12 October and an investigation is ongoing.

The UKHSA said it "cannot comment on any information that could form part of these investigations before they are complete".

Immensa: Month delay before incorrect Covid tests halted

Court papers show discrepancies at Immensa's laboratory were flagged as early as mid September.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[killer b]

I doubt if that will be if any help to zero hours bar staff, musicians, promoters etc.

Looks to me like promoters, and probably some bands if they've set themselves up as a business, should be able to apply for the grants? The zero hours bar staff are fucked though.

 

[editor]

Looks to me like promoters, and probably some bands if they've set themselves up as a business, should be able to apply for the grants? The zero hours bar staff are fucked though.

Most small bands/promoters/DJs aren't set up as businesses. They'll be as fucked as zero hours bar staff - and some may be worse off if they're already laid out for promotion/venue hire etc.

 

[killer b]

Most small bands/promoters/DJs aren't set up as businesses. They'll be as fucked as zero hours bar staff - and some may be worse off if they're already laid out for promotion/venue hire etc.

Presumably if they're making money from playing/putting on gigs & that they'll at least be registered as self employed so they can pay tax on their earnings - is that not more or less the same as being set up as a business? Presumably they'll be able to apply for the grant if so - I guess we'll need to see the smallprint before writing it off anyway.

 

[stdP]

I doubt if that will be if any help to zero hours bar staff, musicians, promoters etc.

The what now...?

In all seriousness, £1bn sounds like a drop in the bucket, hospitality revenue in the last two weeks before christmas in england alone must normally be many multiples of that.

 

[StoneRoad]

The gov't help [last time with furlough and grants] was almost all concentrated onto businesses.
IIRC, the self-employed furlough provisions were some of the last to be made available.
I know a "few" people who are either IR35 self-employed or have zero-hour contracts - most of them had very little help.
No business rates relief, for example ...

 

[Wilf]

He should be in prison for killing thousands with "Eat Out to Help Out (My Friends in Business)".

His ideological intransigence now will cost many more lives, too. Because, ultimately, that's the "evidence" he wants; thousands more deaths before he green-lights money for businesses to close.

This. One of the horrors of this pandemic is how people have, literally, got away with mass murder.

 

[elbows]

Scotland are imposing limits to the size of large public gatherings from Boxing Day for at least 3 weeks - 100 and 200 indoor limit depending on whether they are standing or seated, 500 limit outdoors. Indoor contact sports for adults not going ahead. Also table service only for alcohol consumption venues, and some 1 metre rules.

 

[StoneRoad]

This. One of the horrors of this pandemic is how people have, literally, got away with mass murder.

If a business did such things, the directors would, quite rightly, be charged with "corporate manslaughter" if they are negligent over safety, for example.

Trouble is, depiffle & his cabinet are beholden to the money-making interests of business, so a lot of this balls-up is deliberate on their part ...

 

[souljacker]

pubs and the like should be having a rent holiday, the pub chains on the whole can afford it. Pubcos are perfectly happy to continue taking rents, and will be perfectly happy to sell pubs off for luxury flats if the landlords can't pay the rents any more. Fat chance though if there's a threat to tory party coffers.

I said this right at the start. It's utterly ludicrous to say to pubs and restaurants that they can't operate a business whilst allowing the landlords to still operate a business.

 

[two sheds]

yep and landlords of private properties too - rather than us paying landlords via their tenants there should be a rent holiday for tenants - certainly with well-off landlords (perhaps make it means tested the government likes that ).

 

[StoneRoad]

Yeah, I agree with homes & businesses getting a rent holiday.

The sharks that own the site where my workshop is located are nasty, grasping cunts.
Like their predecessors, they promised all sorts of things when they bought the site ...
There's been almost no maintenance for the past seven or more years, part of several buildings have been [badly] demolished, the yard surface is dangerous from deep potholes.
They tried to get planning permission to "redevelop" the whole site, really grand plans for housing, hotel, a filling station and two drive thru's [one food, one coffee], overnight waggon-parking - as far as I know, the whole lot was kicked into touch.
During the main lockdowns last year, they were harassing people to pay up for rent and service charges, even in advance of the due dates. They offered zero help or flexibility, even to otherwise prompt payers.
And they're still at it - we've just had a sarky reminder for the next quarter's rent. It's due on the 25th, and they want us to pay it early ! Just for that, it'll be late ...

 

[Wilf]

Scotland act, we get some more awful figures at 4.00, maybe some more studies and projections and.... well, nothing at all for another 48 hours while johnson faffs, farts and cringes.

 

[elbows]

Wales will need more restrictions to keep the country safe, a senior Welsh government minister has said.

Ministers are considering whether further measures are needed after Christmas to tackle Omicron.

Economy Minister Vaughan Gething called for the UK government to restart the furlough scheme.

Omicron: More Covid rules needed in Wales, minister says

Vaughan Gething's comments come as Welsh government bans spectators from attending sports matches.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Sue]

Is the black colour in the key new? Certainly seems to indicate Plague and Pestilence.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

 

[cupid_stunt]

Is the black colour in the key new?

Yes, they had a notice on there yesterday, saying a new colour would be added today, for any areas with 1600+ cases per 100k.

Anyone remember at the start of this, when they introduced travel restrictions for any countries on 20+ cases per 100k?

Seems hard to believe now.