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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

The number of daily reported cases in the UK is now incredibly close to the level seen at the July peak. 53,945 reported today compared to 54,674 on July 17th.
 
Mainly late 20s/early 30s.
As promised here is my attempt to graph positive cases by age group for the London region. Obviously this wont show up any trends that are more localised than that.

Rolling 7 day averages, by case specimen date, with the very latest data chopped off the end as its incomplete, although it looks like I didnt quite get the chopping right on the first graph.

Some of the trends and differences between age groups here are probably typical of this period, not unique to London. Some of this stuff probably highlights the benefits of booster jabs, so far at least.

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This is just an observation, not a judgement. I am purposely leaving my own subjective opinion out, because it isn’t really relevant and I’m not even sure what it is anyway.

I don’t think I can overstate the difference in perception that I observe between this message board and those I come into contact with in outside life, regarding how much a problem COVID is.

For context, the people I come into contact with in outside life are those at work (the City), those in my living environs (a Surrey village), family and a handful of friends that don’t fit into other boxes. Almost to a person, it is clear that they just view COVID now as a background inconvenience that might make you ill for a bit but then you get better, so they aren’t going to worry about it. They’re fully vaccinated and that = safe in their eyes. They’ll comply with mask wearing when the rules ask them to (because rule obeying is baked into them), but they’re doing it because they obey rules, not because they’re actually fussed personally.

At work, as I’ve mentioned before, there is zero mask wearing in the building. Today was the Christmas do for the finance function — about 100-200 people in a basement room of a bar, no masks. A really high proportion have had COVID at some point in the last six months, and they got ill for a bit then got better. They‘re not bothered. It’s universally blamed on their kids getting it first. I don’t know about the wider City, but judging from behaviour in cafes I would say the same thing applies across the board.

In the village, there are a couple of people that remain worried about COVID, no doubt. Other than this small handful, though, when you talk to people, they dismiss the idea that there is something to worry about. They’re all fully vaccinated. Many of them have had COVID — they got ill for a bit then they got better. They caught it from their kids.

Family are a bit more circumspect but all of those with kids have had COVID, despite actually trying quite hard to avoid it. My sister finally ended up with it a few weeks back after 18 months managing to avoid it. It came from her son. Anyway, although I say they are more circumspect in theory, none of them are really avoiding living normal things in their lives.

I would say there is definitely a two-speed society developing on this. There are those whose availability bias has worked to deemphasise risk, because their experiences are that everybody just gets it in the end anyway and it’s not that bad anyway if you’ve been vaccinated. And then there are those whose availability bias has worked to re-emphasise risk, because they are avoiding places that might have it and watching the news, which is full of worries.
 
This is just an observation, not a judgement. I am purposely leaving my own subjective opinion out, because it isn’t really relevant and I’m not even sure what it is anyway.

I don’t think I can overstate the difference in perception that I observe between this message board and those I come into contact with in outside life, regarding how much a problem COVID is.

For context, the people I come into contact with in outside life are those at work (the City), those in my living environs (a Surrey village), family and a handful of friends that don’t fit into other boxes. Almost to a person, it is clear that they just view COVID now as a background inconvenience that might make you ill for a bit but then you get better, so they aren’t going to worry about it. They’re fully vaccinated and that = safe in their eyes. They’ll comply with mask wearing when the rules ask them to (because rule obeying is baked into them), but they’re doing it because they obey rules, not because they’re actually fussed personally.

At work, as I’ve mentioned before, there is zero mask wearing in the building. Today was the Christmas do for the finance function — about 100-200 people in a basement room of a bar, no masks. A really high proportion have had COVID at some point in the last six months, and they got ill for a bit then got better. They‘re not bothered. It’s universally blamed on their kids getting it first. I don’t know about the wider City, but judging from behaviour in cafes I would say the same thing applies across the board.

In the village, there are a couple of people that remain worried about COVID, no doubt. Other than this small handful, though, when you talk to people, they dismiss the idea that there is something to worry about. They’re all fully vaccinated. Many of them have had COVID — they got ill for a bit then they got better. They caught it from their kids.

Family are a bit more circumspect but all of those with kids have had COVID, despite actually trying quite hard to avoid it. My sister finally ended up with it a few weeks back after 18 months managing to avoid it. It came from her son. Anyway, although I say they are more circumspect in theory, none of them are really avoiding living normal things in their lives.

I would say there is definitely a two-speed society developing on this. There are those whose availability bias has worked to deemphasise risk, because their experiences are that everybody just gets it in the end anyway and it’s not that bad anyway if you’ve been vaccinated. And then there are those whose availability bias has worked to re-emphasise risk, because they are avoiding places that might have it and watching the news, which is full of worries.
It's getting to the point where most of my friends and colleagues have had it at least once. I agree, it's definitely not at the same fear level as back in March 2020. And that's probably a good thing I think.

Although it's extremely tough to be clinically vulnerable when everyone around you has stopped caring.
 
This is just an observation, not a judgement. I am purposely leaving my own subjective opinion out, because it isn’t really relevant and I’m not even sure what it is anyway.

I don’t think I can overstate the difference in perception that I observe between this message board and those I come into contact with in outside life, regarding how much a problem COVID is.

For context, the people I come into contact with in outside life are those at work (the City), those in my living environs (a Surrey village), family and a handful of friends that don’t fit into other boxes. Almost to a person, it is clear that they just view COVID now as a background inconvenience that might make you ill for a bit but then you get better, so they aren’t going to worry about it. They’re fully vaccinated and that = safe in their eyes. They’ll comply with mask wearing when the rules ask them to (because rule obeying is baked into them), but they’re doing it because they obey rules, not because they’re actually fussed personally.

At work, as I’ve mentioned before, there is zero mask wearing in the building. Today was the Christmas do for the finance function — about 100-200 people in a basement room of a bar, no masks. A really high proportion have had COVID at some point in the last six months, and they got ill for a bit then got better. They‘re not bothered. It’s universally blamed on their kids getting it first. I don’t know about the wider City, but judging from behaviour in cafes I would say the same thing applies across the board.

In the village, there are a couple of people that remain worried about COVID, no doubt. Other than this small handful, though, when you talk to people, they dismiss the idea that there is something to worry about. They’re all fully vaccinated. Many of them have had COVID — they got ill for a bit then they got better. They caught it from their kids.

Family are a bit more circumspect but all of those with kids have had COVID, despite actually trying quite hard to avoid it. My sister finally ended up with it a few weeks back after 18 months managing to avoid it. It came from her son. Anyway, although I say they are more circumspect in theory, none of them are really avoiding living normal things in their lives.

I would say there is definitely a two-speed society developing on this. There are those whose availability bias has worked to deemphasise risk, because their experiences are that everybody just gets it in the end anyway and it’s not that bad anyway if you’ve been vaccinated. And then there are those whose availability bias has worked to re-emphasise risk, because they are avoiding places that might have it and watching the news, which is full of worries.

Good post, and I’d broadly agree with this. I think people who have HAD to work outside the home throughout are generally less bothered because they are used to being out and about.

I feel a bit sorry for the people who have had the luxury of locking themselves away. During 2020 it was a great thing to do but i worry some won’t get back to normal, especially if they spend all their time reading about every little covid development.

I’m somewhere in the middle. Always out but still mask wearing and avoiding crowds.
 
Good post, and I’d broadly agree with this. I think people who have HAD to work outside the home throughout are generally less bothered because they are used to being out and about.

I feel a bit sorry for the people who have had the luxury of locking themselves away. During 2020 it was a great thing to do but i worry some won’t get back to normal, especially if they spend all their time reading about every little covid development.

I’m somewhere in the middle. Always out but still mask wearing and avoiding crowds.
Yeah, this. I recall the feeling that my IT abilities enabling me to move my various works online more or less at the snap of my fingers seemed like a huge Big Win at the time, but with hindsight (not that I'd do it any differently again), the smoothness and novelty of adapting to the initial crisis made it very easy - too easy - to withdraw into a safe bubble. Which I have had to work hard to overcome the psychological effects of, and which have undoubtedly contributed to the range of symptoms of depression and anxiety that I then began to experience, and am only now beginning to struggle past.

It's been telling that pretty much every client I've seen since this all started has experienced some degree of additional distress as a result of some or other aspect of Covid.
 
Yes, I'm definitely aware of a difference between me and others - I am living normal life now but when I e.g. go to the cinema or go to a comedy gig, I wear a mask. But I am literally the only one who does. Why do I continue to do it? I think partly because my long covid makes me worry about getting it again (though I'm going out to crowded places so not too worried, I like to think) and even if the mask protects me 10%, that seems worth it to me. But also partly because I think we all have a duty to slow the circulation of the virus in order to protect more vulnerable people. But I can see why others don't follow this logic - the government sold them so hard on the vaccine as the cure-all, and when they gave up mask mandates they were basically declaring there is no social duty to slow the circulation of the virus. The problem with all that is (a) the vaccines don't protect older people or other vulnerable people as much as people think and (b) there are still plenty of unvaccinated people around. I'm more bothered by the former than the latter. And (c) long covid of course. But such has been the government's messaging that I don't really blame people for giving up on lowering circulation of the virus. They've been sold a dishonest idea of the outcome of high circulation with vaccination.
 
This is just an observation, not a judgement. I am purposely leaving my own subjective opinion out, because it isn’t really relevant and I’m not even sure what it is anyway.

I don’t think I can overstate the difference in perception that I observe between this message board and those I come into contact with in outside life, regarding how much a problem COVID is.

For context, the people I come into contact with in outside life are those at work (the City), those in my living environs (a Surrey village), family and a handful of friends that don’t fit into other boxes. Almost to a person, it is clear that they just view COVID now as a background inconvenience that might make you ill for a bit but then you get better, so they aren’t going to worry about it. They’re fully vaccinated and that = safe in their eyes. They’ll comply with mask wearing when the rules ask them to (because rule obeying is baked into them), but they’re doing it because they obey rules, not because they’re actually fussed personally.

At work, as I’ve mentioned before, there is zero mask wearing in the building. Today was the Christmas do for the finance function — about 100-200 people in a basement room of a bar, no masks. A really high proportion have had COVID at some point in the last six months, and they got ill for a bit then got better. They‘re not bothered. It’s universally blamed on their kids getting it first. I don’t know about the wider City, but judging from behaviour in cafes I would say the same thing applies across the board.

In the village, there are a couple of people that remain worried about COVID, no doubt. Other than this small handful, though, when you talk to people, they dismiss the idea that there is something to worry about. They’re all fully vaccinated. Many of them have had COVID — they got ill for a bit then they got better. They caught it from their kids.

Family are a bit more circumspect but all of those with kids have had COVID, despite actually trying quite hard to avoid it. My sister finally ended up with it a few weeks back after 18 months managing to avoid it. It came from her son. Anyway, although I say they are more circumspect in theory, none of them are really avoiding living normal things in their lives.

I would say there is definitely a two-speed society developing on this. There are those whose availability bias has worked to deemphasise risk, because their experiences are that everybody just gets it in the end anyway and it’s not that bad anyway if you’ve been vaccinated. And then there are those whose availability bias has worked to re-emphasise risk, because they are avoiding places that might have it and watching the news, which is full of worries.
Great appraisal, most people I know are also in the '54000 cases a day is of little concern" camp and as you say on other forums its slipped down the list of subjects below stuff like - Aldi have an offer on frozen shredded animal today
 
In my groups of mates people still seem to be fairly consistent with mask wearing though things do slide when we are together, or after a few drinks etc. Most of us work in health and social care though so that's possibly why even if it's not a given.
 
Well its not like the shift in attitudes was some horrible surprise to me. I considered it to be pretty much inevitable in the vaccine era, and considering the amount of time that has passed, the attitudes and emphasis of the press and the government, and the realities of people who've had no choice but to risk exposure on a regular basis. Perceptions about who is likely to be hospitalised or killed also make a difference.

I was hoping that this evolution of attitudes would be a better fit with the realities of infection rates than has actually been the case. I would have moved much further along myself if we hadnt had such consistently high rates of infection throughout the summer and beyond. I'd even started to talk to my mum in a manner I hoped would help her travel a little further back towards normality than has been the case, but the way things have panned out means this keeps getting slowed down by events.

I was always going to see the whole acute phase of the pandemic out, I havent got stuck in an unexpected trap. And I'd been preparing for the next phase, talking about how I would move with the times, just in the very slow lane rather than the fast lane. And a lot of my emphasis has always been on what I expect authorities to feel the need to do, and there is a strong seasonal component to that, even without new variants with immune escape potential. If I have any reason to feel sorry for myself its only that my vaccination timing was far enough out of sync with the rest of my family (due to them being older and in the case of my slightly younger brother, a clinical vulnerability) that the timing was far from ideal in terms of everyone feeling at their most protected at the same time. Its a shame the vaccines strongest effects didnt last a bit longer than they do (at least after the initial 2 doses). Even my less cautious family members attitudes flip flopped as vaccine protection waned, bouncing back once they had boosters.

There is a reasonably strong relationship between peoples personal sense of risk, linked to age, health conditions and occupations, which leaves me unsurprised as to who has found it easiest to return to relative normality. But then there is also the stuff people do because they want to be a part of protecting the NHS when they are told this is a big issue. So far in the pandemic, opinion polling tends to imply that I am not some weird exeption, and that a great mass of people will behave somewhat appropriately when called for. This winter was always going to test that once more, and it remains to be seen how much Omicron amplifies both the need to behave differently and peoples willingness to do so once again.

I have moaned throughout 2021 that vaccines were asked to carry too much pandemic weight. And that goes for the weight of the pandemic on peoples minds too, since vaccines did lift a lot of that weight. Once of the reasons I keep going on about that is that I want people to retain some doubt in their minds as to whether that would be enough on its own, so that if everyone has to go further with heavier restrictions again, this didnt come as some terrible, soul-crushing shock to people. As with many of my concerns, I will be delighted if they prove unnecessary, but I'm not going to encourage people to think that its all over at this point.
 
One slightly curious but I suppose not so surprising thing is that there seem to be a chunk of people who have a sort of weary fatalistic attitude that leads to expectations of the government imposing new lockdowns etc with similar timing to lastg year. I suppose its not unusual for people to use recent history as some guide, and seasonal risk does imply some common timing, but its an oversimplification too far for me, the resulting assumptions arent safe, though they are somewhat plausible.
 
Also when I've massively played up to the most arrogant, pompous version of myself during this pandemic, I have at times declared how much I am looking forward to being wrong about the pandemic more often, since that will be a sign that we can move on without hideous setbacks. I was hoping this would have come to greater fruition than has been the case so far. I mention it again now because until now the timing of those who want to demonstrate that I've fallen out of step with reality and that my attitudes are no longer proportionate or appropriate, have tended to have bad timing and so we havent had to wait all that long to discover that I'm not redundant yet. I dont want this winter to suck or Omicron to have devastating properties, so hopefully this time other peoples attitudes will turn out to be more timely and appropriate, but I obviously have my doubts about that and will just have to wait and see.

I suppose another reason for my attitude this year is that the inevitable contradictions between peoples horror at the 'herd immunity approach' back in March 2020 and attitudes when the later, vaccine-era version of herd immunity (& hybrid immunity via both infection & vaccination) were in play was always likely to arrive on the scene, and indeed it did. And I dont think its been discussed properly. I have mixed feelings about it myself, since it isnt that hard to see why this may form a real component of 'the light at the end of the tunnel' and the exit from the acute phase of the pandemic, but also features possibilities more akin to 'the fright at the end of the tunnel'. Because variants still have the potential to act as something of a spoiler in this regard, although probably not to the extent that we would really end up right back at square one.
 
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I am very aware of this discrepancy, too. At some point, three/four weeks ago, most people at my work (both staff and customers), suddenly seemed to decide not to wear masks anymore, despite the "strong recommendation"-policy not having changed.
Which has changed to very strong adherence again with the change in government policy last week. However, people really seem to be obeying the letter only, i.e. wearing them in public facing areas - our back of house team are all working without masks, and in relatively crowded conditions.
And don't get started me on the staff room. We have got a balcony door and a kitchen window that create very good airflow, but out of a staff of about 30 people, I am literally the only one who ever opens them. Everyone else is happy to sit in there, in front of a little space heater that is merrily blowing all available particles about. I just don't get it. I know it gets cold in the room now, but noone even seems to have heard of the importance of ventilation, or the idea of briefly airing the room for ten minutes every hour or two, or even any kind of an idea that covid is still a thing at all.

I don't quite get why people are so blase. Yes, for myself I am also a lot less worried thanks to the vaccination, but I still worry about potentially carrying it and passing it on to someone else both because of their potential vulnerability, and the sheer inconvenience it would cause them. I have had a couple of colds in quick succession over the last couple of months, and I found it a major pita both times - cancelling things, getting tested, not meeting boyfriend, so I'd really rather avoid catching them!
Hate the uncertainty hanging over everything, which is one of the reasons I would have much preferred a low/zero covid strategy.

What gets me the most though, is the apparent discrepancy emotionally. I feel like we have been through (are going through) something very traumatic. All these drastic changes. I'm like - EVERYTHING CLOSED FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, SEVERAL TIMES, it seems quite...errr...major! (Let alone the illnesses and deaths, but those abrupt changes to routine and being unable to be close to loved ones were what affected me personally the most). My nervous system still feels like it's cut to shreds, and it would feel more appropriate to me to have a period of some kind of mourning and adjusting, rather than be flung back headfirst into capitalist consumer maelstrom. And I do wonder if this dissonance is also partly what is affecting MH for others.
 
I suppose I should spell out the situation right now, one that the authorities are very aware of, not just people with attitudes like mine:

The future possible implications of Omicron involve heavy shit, and boosters may turn out to be a key difference maker. Omicron has been seeded here in the UK but we may be about a month or so away from the notable explosive growth phase of an Omicron wave. Slowing that evolution is much easier in the early phase. Put these things together and a picture of a race to boost as many people as possible, and buying a bit of extra time to get millions more boosted before the explosive growth phase, emerges.

So people should be acting right now to reduce transmission of the virus in general. The government know this but only wanted to do the bare minimum, and preferred to focus far more on the booster delivery side of this picture than the behavioural changes to buy time side of things.

This is the moment for people to act and do the right thing, not the best moment to be going on about how sorry they feel for people like me who have been left behind in the return to normal.

Indie SAGE covered much of this today in the initial data part of their stream.

 
Also:

2h ago 12:40

Around one in six adults in Britain believe that life will never return to what it was pre-pandemic, according to a new survey by the Office of National Statistics (ONS).

The results mark the highest proportion to share this view since the start of the pandemic.

The ONS opinions and lifestyle survey, conducted between 18 and 28 November, found that 16% of adults believed that life will never return to normal. This compares to 11% between 20 and 31 October.

Thats not exactly my view, although there are some similarities. I wont delve further into this right now since I've spent far too long going on about myself again recently.
 
What gets me the most though, is the apparent discrepancy emotionally. I feel like we have been through (are going through) something very traumatic. All these drastic changes. I'm like - EVERYTHING CLOSED FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, SEVERAL TIMES, it seems quite...errr...major! (Let alone the illnesses and deaths, but those abrupt changes to routine and being unable to be close to loved ones were what affected me personally the most). My nervous system still feels like it's cut to shreds, and it would feel more appropriate to me to have a period of some kind of mourning and adjusting, rather than be flung back headfirst into capitalist consumer maelstrom. And I do wonder if this dissonance is also partly what is affecting MH for others.
OJ perhaps I will squeeze in one last comment about myself now.

I think what has disturbed my mental health the most in the last 6 months is the extent to which people were prepared to look the other way when faced with a near constant stream of terrible news about the situation with ambulance waiting times. Thats not a pure covid story, but the pandemic is responsible for a fair chunk of it, directly and indirectly.
 
This sort of thing hardly fills me with joy either:

One in four care home residents are reportedly yet to receive a booster shot, despite government promises that they would be offered one by the start of November.

Citing figures from NHS England, the Telegraph reports that only 72% of care home residents have so far received a booster dose.

At a press conference on 15 November, Boris Johnson said that 80% of eligible people in care homes had received a booster, but charities claimed the new data raises questions over the prime minister’s claim.

4h ago 10:57
 
I pay some attention to this sort of thing too, people should read between the lines when there are mixed messages and a difference between what is said and what is done:

Meanwhile, government departments were reportedly cancelling Christmas parties yesterday, ignoring calls by the prime minister to go ahead with them.

The Times reports “Omi-shambles in Whitehall” as multiple government departments call off festive celebrations.

The education department has already suspended plans for its annual talent show, reports the newspaper, and the business department has decided against putting on a staff Christmas party.

It comes despite calls from senior government figures - including Boris Johnson (see also 9:33), Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid (who has said the health department will not have a big party, but that he will take some staff out for dinner) - for big Christmas celebrations to go ahead, despite the threat posed by Omicron.

5h ago 10:07

Other Guardian entries on their live updates page today include:

The British Medical Association (BMA) has said that people should be encouraged to “avoid large groups” and, where possible, meet outdoors during the festive period.

“The message to people is fairly straightforward, which is keep calm, carry on with your Christmas plans,” he told Sky News this morning. “We’ve put the necessary restrictions in place, but beyond that, keep calm and carry on.”

It comes after an influential scientist last night warned that he wouldn’t feel safe going to a Christmas party this year. Prof Peter Openshaw, a member of the Government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said the “chances of getting infected were too high” to have a party.

He told the BBC’s Question Time:

We have not been planning to have a Christmas party. Because with things as they are, regardless of Omicron, we thought that the chances of getting infected were too high.
Asked about the prime minister’s comments on Christmas plans, he said:

Personally, I wouldn’t feel safe going to a party at the moment, if it involves being indoors in an enclosed space where you’re close to other people, and people are not wearing masks. Even if they’ve been tested and vaccinated, I wouldn’t feel safe.

I'll not accept being painted as a weird freak for not buying into 'keep calm and carry on' utter bullshit. And thats why I question whether some people actually learnt the key lessons from the earlier part of the pandemic. I want us to dodge some bullets, and to err on the side of imagining those bullets are real rather than believing they are excessive concerns that are out of step with reality. I dont want to have to go all round the loop again via the right things not being done and us ending up with months of severe restrictions as a result.
 
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I really relate to what everything that Brainaddict and zora said about how people in general are behaving, and why and how they are feelings

I continue wearing a mask quite a lot because it's not clear that the pandemic impact has lessened yet. I feel stupid and over the top doing it at work but I do it to avoid playing a worse part in scenarios like 2 weeks ago where I went to a school one day and a nursery setting the next day [with FFP2 mask on feeling sheepish being the only one and a bit mean to small children to hide my face from them ] but went back to uni to find that a student has tested positive and I'd worked with them in fairly close proximity a few days earlier. I don't want to be the person who takes the virus to other people/settings and I was glad to think mask wearing had helped avoid the risk of passing the virus on. And also having had long covid and made a recovery, I don't want to spend another lengthy period feeling totally fatigued, in pain and worried about my health

3 colleagues have come back to work on site and now have gone off long term sick - this is really unusual for those people and for our team.
Everyone's had major barney's with each other at work [yeah I know I work in a stressful workplace that had lots of redundancies in 2021 but still we don't fall out usually to this extent]
I've witnessed and heard about some shocking behaviour on the part of our students [who are usually a professionally minded bunch ]
 
Didn't want to quote it again but yes agree with kabbes post.

I'm pretty much on the same page as the people he describes as just getting on with it, though my words not his. Although I'm tending to avoid crowds, but that is normal TBH. Social life, such that it is, basically normal. Going to pubs, cafes Now wearing a mask in shops again. I had stopped but continued on transport since last year. The whole mask chat actually just winds me up now. Wear one or not, I don't give a fuck.

Don't think I've had covid, terrible cough couple of years ago yarda, yarda. Concerned about vaccine dodging relatives, particularly my sister. Mildly concerned about catching the Onmicronz. OTOH I live on my own. I'm not gonna stay in for weeks on end unless forced to.
 
There was bound to be more talk of masks recently because the rules/guidance in England changed, resulting in notable changes to the number of people bothering.
 
I think one thing that has gone for most people that maybe some still cling to a bit is that 'step out of line once and you might kill someone's granny' approach just isn't viable any more. It doesn't fit with people's experience, whether that is having had to work throughout, having kids in school or having been out to the pub quite a bit or whatever, and it doesn't fit with what they see going on around them. Contrary to what a lot of people seem to think though I do think most people are capable of understanding the wider picture and are happy to do their bit but it needs to be a) clearly communicated as to what that is and b) fair in terms of who carries the load. I think part b) is quite a key thing in whether people wear masks or not and the degree to which they respond to others' actions on it.

Part a) is obviously a big issue with that twat Johnson in charge.
 
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