Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

This discussion and emphasis made much more sense to me in summer than it does in winter, and there are signs that I am hardly alone with that sort of thinking. I dont think I moaned at individuals for going somewhat back to normal in summer, even though I was bothered by high delta rates and advised against the dropping of all caution. My attitude was always going to change this winter, but Omicron may dramatically alter the extent to which it changes. Or we might dodge some bullets which will be great to see, and will also help my evolution next spring.

 

[elbows]

I note this bit from SAGE 29th November meeting minutes:

The earlier measures to reduce transmission are introduced, the more stringent they are, and the wider their geographic coverage, the more effective they will be (high confidence – see previous SAGE advice, including on Plan B). As with previous waves of infection, some settings (e.g. care homes) will require particular consideration.

Even if measures are introduced immediately, there may not be time to fully ascertain whether they are sufficient before decisions are needed on further action. The situation could develop quickly over the coming weeks and decision-makers may need to act while there is still a high level of uncertainty including considering the potential need for stringent response measures.

Evidence suggests that measures could be reintroduced with expectation of a similar level of adherence as has been seen in the past if messaging has a clear rationale and there is coherence between messaging and policy. Early communication of risk and potential decisions would allow people to plan accordingly, and in turn increase levels of adherence.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037831/SAGE_97_Minutes_29_November_2021.pdf

 

[elbows]

Perhaps my contributions to this thread seem over the top today.

But I'm not pleased about Omicron or the timing of some peoples comments.

Also it seems there have been around 135,000 UK hospital admissions/diagnoses since the start of June, and about 17,500 deaths within 28 days of a positive test since then. To my mind some people talk as if that were not the case.

 

[zahir]

Perhaps my contributions to this thread seem over the top today.

They sound pretty balanced to me.

 

[Supine]

Today’s Indy Sage is well worth watching. The discussion and first question about Christmas plans was interesting. Depressing though.

 

[_Russ_]

Perhaps my contributions to this thread seem over the top today.

But I'm not pleased about Omicron or the timing of some peoples comments.

Also it seems there have been around 135,000 UK hospital admissions/diagnoses since the start of June, and about 17,500 deaths within 28 days of a positive test since then. To my mind some people talk as if that were not the case.

Well, there are a;ways going to be different interpretations, personally Id put more weight on the data you helpfully compile than the appallingly misleading media narrative and probably like you find it depressing when people actually suck it up and forget the reality of whats happening in hospitals...until they need one

 

[elbows]

Today’s Indy Sage is well worth watching. The discussion and first question about Christmas plans was interesting. Depressing though.

The subsequent question about schools, children and vaccination was also depressing but rang true.

We shouldnt be doing all the 'normal, expected' things this Christmas. And Omicron offers additional reasons to behave differently this month.

 

[elbows]

The Guardian understands the government has been privately urged by some of its own scientific advisers to tell people to work from home until Christmas if they can, when more will be known about the dangers posed by the new variant.

Act now against Omicron to stop new Covid wave, UK ministers warned

Government privately being urged by advisers to tell people to work from home as UK cases of variant hit 134

www.theguardian.com

 

[StoneRoad]

Will dePiffle break the habit of a lifetime and actually do something the science advisors are suggesting before it is too late ?

Past form means I'll not be holding my breath on this one.

 

[elbows]

I dont do this sort of data analysis so I cant really comment on these concerns at this stage.

 

[tommers]

They're saying travellers need a PCR before leaving now as well. So does that mean one before leaving and then one within 2 days of arriving? Seems a bit silly to do one 3 hours before getting on a plane and then immediately when you land.

 

[2hats]

Consenus statement of the SPI-M-O meeting, 24 November, 2021.

Please note that this consensus statement was written prior to the emergence of B.1.1.529 / Omicron and its subsequent designation as a variant of concern.

1. SPI-M-O reviewed research conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine which suggests that there may be a smaller susceptible population in England compared to other European countries and thus England may have a smaller potential future COVID-19 hospitalisation burden. To gain firmer conclusions relating to these patterns, however, a large-scale age-structured serological study is required. This is also only a snapshot of a highly dynamic system, which will change in future.
2. The festive period is a time when contact patterns are likely to change. SPI-M-O has produced new medium-term scenarios considering different plausible values of R from 6th December for six weeks. During the festive period, there is typically increased mixing between generations and within different networks. Lateral flow testing can be used as a group diagnostic to mitigate risk of SARS-COV-2 transmission into older age groups and more vulnerable individuals. Encouragement of booster vaccination, frequent lateral flow testing, increased ventilation, and use of face masks would be easy and effective interventions that would mitigate transmission risk.
3. SPI-M-O has considered the determinants of COVID-19 endemicity. It will take a long time for COVID-19 to settle to its endemic state, and the path to endemicity will be critically dependent on the rate of waning of immunity and chosen policies on vaccination and boosting.
4. SARS-CoV-2 will continue to be a threat to health system function and require active management, of which vaccination and surveillance are key, for at least the next five years

 

[jontz01]

They're saying travellers need a PCR before leaving now as well. So does that mean one before leaving and then one within 2 days of arriving? Seems a bit silly to do one 3 hours before getting on a plane and then immediately when you land.

It's all over the news as though the UK are doing something major to protect the people. In reality, most (if not all) carriers require a negative pcr test in that 48 hour window to fly anyway. So I don't want to say 'fake news' but it's happening already, I dont see what the story is.... We're just about to fly the whole family back from NZ to the UK, it's a hell of a mission and the hardest part is getting tests done and processed in that 48hr window. Especially considering that NZ has very little testing capacity and quickly gets overwhelmed. Can't get tests processed under 72hrs where we are so have to spend an extra 2 nights in the city, where there is higher risk of exposure. Nightmare.

 

[kenny g]

It's all over the news as though the UK are doing something major to protect the people. In reality, most (if not all) carriers require a negative pcr test in that 48 hour window to fly anyway. So I don't want to say 'fake news' but it's happening already, I dont see what the story is.... We're just about to fly the whole family back from NZ to the UK, it's a hell of a mission and the hardest part is getting tests done and processed in that 48hr window. Especially considering that NZ has very little testing capacity and quickly gets overwhelmed. Can't get tests processed under 72hrs where we are so have to spend an extra 2 nights in the city, where there is higher risk of exposure. Nightmare.

Hope it goes well. Can well imagine the stress levels.

 

[Maltin]

It's all over the news as though the UK are doing something major to protect the people. In reality, most (if not all) carriers require a negative pcr test in that 48 hour window to fly anyway. So I don't want to say 'fake news' but it's happening already, I dont see what the story is.... We're just about to fly the whole family back from NZ to the UK, it's a hell of a mission and the hardest part is getting tests done and processed in that 48hr window. Especially considering that NZ has very little testing capacity and quickly gets overwhelmed. Can't get tests processed under 72hrs where we are so have to spend an extra 2 nights in the city, where there is higher risk of exposure. Nightmare.

The UK doesn’t require a test before flying back to the uk currently for fully vaccinated travellers so it’s not happening already for the large majority of travellers and is a change of requirements. Maybe some carriers had this as a requirement but BA and American Airlines don’t and I’d be surprised if many had their own rules over and above country requirements.

Good luck with your trip though.

 

[jontz01]

The UK doesn’t require a test before flying back to the uk currently for fully vaccinated travellers so it’s not happening already for the large majority of travellers and is a change of requirements. Maybe some carriers had this as a requirement but BA and American Airlines don’t and I’d be surprised if many had their own rules over and above country requirements.

Good luck with your trip though.

Fair play, my bad. I didn't realise that, my apologies. Pre departure testing was mandatory on all the carriers we tried from here, mates all over Europe have been saying the same so I just assumed it was standard nowadays.

Yea, long trip. Through Singapore into Manc with 2 kids.

Actually I've just re-read your post. BA and AA don't require pre flight COVID testing?!


Fuckinell. No wonder we're all messed up.

 

[Maltin]

Fair play, my bad. I didn't realise that, my apologies. Pre departure testing was mandatory on all the carriers we tried from here, mates all over Europe have been saying the same so I just assumed it was standard nowadays.

Yea, long trip. Through Singapore into Manc with 2 kids.

Actually I've just re-read your post. BA and AA don't require pre flight COVID testing?!


Fuckinell. No wonder we're all messed up.

As I say, it’s the country requirement not the airlines. So going to the US the airlines require it as the US does. Flying back from US to UK you didn’t need it as not mandated in the UK until next week. For unvaccinated travellers I believe they need to provide a negative test before flying.

 

[elbows]

Consenus statement of the SPI-M-O meeting, 24 November, 2021.

Sections of the press turned this into stupid stories about how Christmas could be ruined for the next 5 years.

Those stories are not how I'd like people to gain better insight into the potential length of time that the virus may play a very significant role in our lives. But I suppose its still better than the 'its all over' bullshit that people were encouraged to believe this year. Feeble attempts by authorities to rush back to the old normal stand a fair chance of having prolonged the horror, especially when vaccine inequality is added to the mix.

I would favour not encouraging people to think that there will suddenly become a time where we can just drop the basic stuff that slows transmission, and I would want to invest in permanently increased health care systems capacity.

 

[Orang Utan]

Should people be flying to the UK to attend weddings btw? I haven’t RSVPd to a wedding invite next weekend in St Albans, but there’ll be literally hundreds of guests (it’s a collective wedding with numerous couples - the last one I attended had about 20 couples) and most of them will be flying from India, the US and down under. I am definitely not going - am mystified why it’s still going on tbh, but the wedding couples are all Hare Krsna, so are absolute fruitloops - I know for a fact that the parents of one of the brides have come from Kolkata this weekend and gone straight to visit relatives without bothering to test themselves.

 

[LDC]

They'll all have to provide evidence of tests next week when they arrive, and then get tested within 2 days of arrival and also they're supposed to isolate until they get those results.

 

[Orang Utan]

They'll all have to provide evidence of tests next week when they arrive, and then get tested within 2 days of arrival and also they're supposed to isolate until they get those results.

I don’t think that has happened. They just breezed in from Luton Airport and went straight to their relatives.

 

[nagapie]

I would want to invest in permanently increased health care systems capacity.

Pretty sure Covid will be used as the excuse for doing the exact opposite of this i.e unabashed privitisation.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

reading local rag is reporting that covid rates round this way are "more than double" what they were this time last year.

quite a lot of purple / dark purple on the map again

 

[Orang Utan]

‘Woke’ingham is blue.
Jus’ sayin’

 

[Flavour]

the test you have to get before getting on plane to UK can be lateral flow according to what i've read

 

[gentlegreen]

My part of Bristol is blue, my mother and siblings and offspring and kids are dark purple - though not sure if I'll use that as an excuse if my sister insists on doing Xmas at her place ...

 

[LDC]

the test you have to get before getting on plane to UK can be lateral flow according to what i've read

Yeah, but not one you do yourself I think, has to be an official testing provider.

 

[two sheds]

makes sense otherwise just wave it in front of your nostril - ooo no infection I'm off

 

[Flavour]

I've actually only heard of home testing kits in the UK, you certainly can't do them at home in italy

 

[elbows]

No time for my own graphs right now but here is someone elses.