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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Herd immunity is a bit of a weaponised term but in scientific terms it means building up immunity in the population either by vaccination or by letting the virus spread and give natural immunity.

For under 18s there's no vaccine currently available and self isolation will no longer be required for close contacts of people testing positive.

It looks like a herd immunity strategy... It quacks like one...
 
Same here. Nothing for months and now several, including yesterday someone who had two pfizers.
Someone's off work because their sons year are off and now she is also off as she had a notification from the app. One of the juniors I cox had to isolate as well. All in the last week.
 
Given that 'let it rip' is now the policy, a question about the most vulnerable, particularly those who have been double jabbed. I've seen the figures that suggest Astra and Pfizer provide 90%+ protection against death with, I think, slightly higher protection for the 65%+ group. But then the protection against symptomatic infection is much lower. So, with the bonfire of regulations, the coming wave is going to sweep through care homes again, as well as other institutions under one roof. I'm guessing that the 90%+ protection from death figure is derived from wider populations and we don't really know what protection is provided for the most vulnerable with complex health problems. If that's the case, we might not be seeing the deaths we saw in care homes last Spring, but we could see significant fatalities. That or care homes themselves having to impose their own lockdowns.
 
What strategy (not tactics) would people prefer? Delay the peak until winter by retaining more measures? Lockdown until all kids are double jabbed? Lockdown indefinitely in the hope of better vaccines?
 
What strategy (not tactics) would people prefer? Delay the peak until winter by retaining more measures? Lockdown until all kids are double jabbed? Lockdown indefinitely in the hope of better vaccines?
If this approach is pursued through to the Autumn, the peak will surely be much higher then. There will be more cases in the population ready to spread even further when the schools go back, students move away to university etc.
 
What strategy (not tactics) would people prefer? Delay the peak until winter by retaining more measures? Lockdown until all kids are double jabbed? Lockdown indefinitely in the hope of better vaccines?

Continue with masks on public transport and in shops for a while longer.
Delay some of the loosening a few weeks until more people have had both vaccinations.
Some limits on large events.
Stop announcing things like isolation will finish on X date, as it effectively means plenty of people stop straight away.
Stop going on about the economy and talk more about public health and working together to protect us all.
Proper support people isolating and not able to work.

The problem is things have been made such a fucking mess that some of what is proposed now, in the context of having fucked everything up so far, kind of makes some insane sense.
 
Continue with masks on public transport and in shops for a while longer.
Delay some of the loosening a few weeks until more people have had both vaccinations.
Some limits on large events.
Stop announcing things like isolation will finish on X date, as it effectively means plenty of people stop straight away.
Stop going on about the economy and talk more about public health and working together to protect us all.
Support people isolating and not working properly.

The problem is things have been made such a fucking mess that some of what is proposed now, in the context of having fucked everything up so far, kind of makes some insane sense.

All those tactics such as masks, limiting events and delaying loosening will shift the peak from August into the winter. I don't see how they could help.
 
All those tactics such as masks, limiting events and delaying loosening will shift the peak from August into the winter. I don't see how they could help.
Given that the measures announced mean there will be significantly more virus circulating than would have otherwise been with the restrictions, what impact do you think that will have on the Autumn/Winter period/peak?
 
Because significantly more people will be double jabbed. It’ll only be around 50% by July 19

Most of those are under-40s. The benefits of double-jabbing in terms of reducing hospitalizations is rapidly declining as we move down the age groups, whereas the risks of the peak being delayed until winter remain the same.
 
Given that the measures announced mean there will be significantly more virus circulating than would have otherwise been with the restrictions, what impact do you think that will have on the Autumn/Winter period/peak?

The peak is currently modeled to be in August, so without restrictions we'll have the worst of delta out of the way before winter.
 
Because significantly more people will be double jabbed. It’ll only be around 50% by July 19
True, and it's two weeks after the second jab that full protection is reached.

Right now we are opening up bars, pubs, nightclubs and huge events such as festivals, with no restrictions and tens of thousands of unvaccinated or partially vaccinated (young) people will attend.
 
Most of those are under-40s. The benefits of double-jabbing in terms of reducing hospitalizations is rapidly declining as we move down the age groups, whereas the risks of the peak being delayed until winter remain the same.

That's one of the fucked up things I mentioned. On some level it does make some sense now rather than later due to the winter concerns. But the reason that is partly true is that we're now in a situation that's been so badly managed we don't have many good options.
 
Most of those are under-40s. The benefits of double-jabbing in terms of reducing hospitalizations is rapidly declining as we move down the age groups, whereas the risks of the peak being delayed until winter remain the same.
Hey, well why bother jabbing them at all? You seem to forget that jabbing reduces the chances of onward transmission, particularly to vulnerable people.
 
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