Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[belboid]

It's very hard to get a handle on 'long covid' and its prevalence. There's no agreement on how to define it.

I think this is quite a good article.

Does Long Covid really exist?

Patients with debilitating symptoms are being treated like political pawns

unherd.com

good ol' UnHerd. Spiked for people who think they're too posh for Spiked. I also see Mr Ritchie is a psychologist not a medic.

 

[elbows]

I dont have the time or inclination to read that now, and overall I'm limited in what I can claim about long covid. But I'd certainly go along with what I believe I remember Whitty saying in the latest press conference, that what we call long covid is likely a bunch of different syndromes.

 

[belboid]

I dont hae the time or inclination to read that now, and overall I'm limited in what I can claim about long covid. But I'd certainly go along with what I believe I remember Whitty saying in the latest press conference, that what we call long covid is likely a bunch of different syndromes.

Its pretty poor and says that because we dont really have an absolutely clear idea of what 'long covid' is then it may well not exist. But then goes on to list various examples where people are ill for a long time and breaks them down into different categories (a la Whitty). It's basically an article saying we shouldn't worry about it, we can let it rip now.

 

[teuchter]

It's basically an article saying we shouldn't worry about it, do let rip.

No it's not.

It's written by the guy who made this website .

 

[elbows]

Thanks for the summary of it belboid.

Now I am having to hold my nose and post an article from the Standard.

Because it contains the stuff which is behind the reason I keep saying that I dont know what will happen with this wave, and how there is still a chance government will get away with this approach.

It also contains the term that officials have apparently come up with to describe the current version of the herd immunity approach. Hybrid immunity.....

Exclusive: Boris Johnson banking on August virus fall

New data on ‘hybrid immunity’ will suggest Covid is set to pass peak then decline

www.standard.co.uk

Data modelling due over the coming days is hoped to confirm that the turning point in Britain’s pandemic is likely to come this summer. Ministers believe the peak could be reached next month as the disease rips through people who are unvaccinated and those who have only had a single jab.

Department of Health officials have reportedly coined the term “hybrid immunity” to describe the protection from vaccinating older, more vulnerable people, combined with a mixture of vaccinations and natural immunity in the young.

Even if the modelling indicates a peak within a timeframe they can live with, it doesnt take many modelling parameters to be wrong before the reality diverges nastily from their hopes.

Also if the current rate of infection remains constant, then we can look at how many doublings there will be before the peak is reached according to their timing estimates, apply that to things like hospital admissions, and then consider the magnitude of the horror involved.

 

[belboid]

No it's not.

It's written by the guy who made this website .

that website just debunks the absolute loon theories, it says nothing (at a quick glance) about Johnsonian practises.

(I have tho, amended my post to make it clear he thinks we can let rip now, as opposed to thinknig we could have let rip whenever)

 

[teuchter]

that website just debunks the absolute loon theories, it says nothing (at a quick glance) about Johnsonian practises.

(I have tho, amended my post to make it clear he thinks we can let rip now, as opposed to thinknig we could have let rip whenever)

Where is he promoting a "let it rip" approach - either now or in the past?

 

[elbows]

OK I read the bloody thing and I agree, the only way in which 'let it rip' type mentalities get a look in is when he is describing what stuff, including long covid, it has been tempting to use to piss on the let it rip brigade in the past.

 

[teqniq]

Wow. Heartfelt:

 

[belboid]

OK I read the bloody thing and I agree, the only way in which 'let it rip' type mentalities get a look in is when he is describing what stuff, including long covid, it has been tempting to use to piss on the let it rip brigade in the past.

I'm thinking of the bit where he minimises the number with 'long covid' This is the 'best ever effort' figure he says and it reduces the number of sufferers to 3,327, 0.27%, rather than the up to 400,000 others report. Even given a justifiable distinction between those simply getting a worse case than others and those who have quite distinct clinical symptoms, that is such a vast difference that would imply it isn't really that much of an issue.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'm thinking of the bit where he minimises the number with 'long covid' This is the 'best ever effort' figure he says and it reduces the number of sufferers to 3,327, 0.27%, rather than the up to 400,000 others report. Even given a justifiable distinction between those simply getting a worse case than others and those who have quite distinct clinical symptoms, that is such a vast difference that would imply it isn't really that much of an issue.

Or the over 2 million estimated by the REACT study.

Over 2 million adults in England may have had long COVID - Imperial REACT | Imperial News | Imperial College London

A study of over half a million adults in England found that one in 20 had persistent COVID-19 symptoms.

www.imperial.ac.uk

 

[elbows]

I'm thinking of the bit where he minimises the number with 'long covid' This is the 'best ever effort' figure he says and it reduces the number of sufferers to 3,327, 0.27%, rather than the up to 400,000 others report. Even given a justifiable distinction between those simply getting a worse case than others and those who have quite distinct clinical symptoms, that is such a vast difference that would imply it isn't really that much of an issue.

My problem with that aspect of the article is the same as a problem I often have when people try too hard to be so bloody reasonable and balanced. Sometimes I make my posts very long and detailed in order to try to do full justice to a picture, not over-egg things or conveniently leave a bit out. But sometimes this just waters shit down and gives people an excuse for inaction or a wait and see approach. And I've concluded that actually, there are times where I achieve far more by going out on a limb, having a rant, taking a stance that may seem extreme etc. Because Id much rather be assused of going over the top than of playing into the hands of the moderates whose sense of moderation actually leads to extremely unacceptable outcomes all too easily.

 

[Johnny Doe]

It's very hard to get a handle on 'long covid' and its prevalence. There's no agreement on how to define it.

I think this is quite a good article.

Does Long Covid really exist?

Patients with debilitating symptoms are being treated like political pawns

unherd.com

Anything on that site will remain 'unheard' by me

 

[elbows]

Labour have actually pulled the trigger. Called it the Johnson variant.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yeah, I did enjoy that moment during PMQs.

 

[elbows]

I wont get too excited about them finally kicking some balls into an open goal, but its a start.

 

[sheothebudworths]

On patients admitted - the daily dashboard is showing a rise of 42.5% today on the previous weeks figures - but that's only up until 3/07 due to Scotland's not having been updated since then.
However, England's figures alone have gone up to a weekly total of 2,345 on the 5/07 from 1,489 the week before, so a rise of 57%. The daily figure for England on 5/07 was 416, so already over the published national, daily figure (386).

32,548 new cases today, too.

 

[teuchter]

The problem with "long covid" is not as simple as the question of whether numbers are being over- or under- estimated. The problem is that the numbers can be wildly different according to how you define it, even if you ignore uncertainties about to what extent symptoms are actually caused by Covid.

The "two million people" number quoted in the REACT article is people reporting certain symptoms 12 weeks after suffering from Covid. To me, that's something very different from a 'long covid' that is defined as a truly chronic illness that might affect someone for the rest of their life. Of course, by definition, we can't know at this point in time how many people will turn out to end up with permanent problems.

Long covid is something that I worry about and one of the main reasons I'm pretty keen to avoid getting covid. But I would like to attempt to link my level of worry to the best possible guess at what the likelihood is, of a covid infection leading to truly long term chronic health problems. I'm not saying that living with symptoms for 3 or 4 months is trivial - just that it's a very different thing to a condition that will never improve.

 

[belboid]

My problem with that aspect of the article is the same as a problem I often have when people try too hard to be so bloody reasonable and balanced. Sometimes I make my posts very long and detailed in order to try to do full justice to a picture, not over-egg things or conveniently leave a bit out. But sometimes this just waters shit down and gives people an excuse for inaction or a wait and see approach. And I've concluded that actually, there are times where I achieve far more by going out on a limb, having a rant, taking a stance that may seem extreme etc. Because Id much rather be assused of going over the top than of playing into the hands of the moderates whose sense of moderation actually leads to extremely unacceptable outcomes all too easily.

It’s about the context of where and when it is published that we have to make those choices, no?

if it were an effectively peer reviewed site where the claims can be challenged and interrogated (like here) then a longer version makes sense. But if it’s somewhere where that doesn’t really happen (like Spiked or UnHerd) it is more likely to be taken as fitting with the general consensus of that site. Which, in this case, is about being less well disposed to greater lockdowns and legal measures being put in place.

 

[sheothebudworths]

I also don't understand the constant claims about the link between cases and hospitalisation being broken/reduced when we are carrying out so many more tests now than previously.
Am I missing something?

 

[two sheds]

Labour have actually pulled the trigger. Called it the Johnson variant.

oooo johnson didn't like that, the mask slipped for two moments

 

[Pickman's model]

I also don't understand the constant claims about the link between cases and hospitalisation being broken/reduced when we are carrying out so many more tests now than previously.
Am I missing something?

No. Boris Johnson and his foul crew are tho

 

[cupid_stunt]

Cases in Worthing have gone up 98.9% in 7-days to 181 (about 163 per 100k), we were on just 5 (4.5 per 100k) a month ago.

Despite being an urban borough, we still have the lowest rate of the 7 lower tier councils in West Sussex county, but it's spreading over the border from Brighton & Hove, which turned purple on the interactive map (5-day lag) with over 400 cases per 100k.

 

[sheothebudworths]

No. Boris Johnson and his foul crew are tho

It just seems like a mental claim to make, given that.
Ignoring test numbers, but with positivity rates etc it all looks much more similar to beg-mid Oct time and that seems to be pretty well reflected in admissions and all the rest - and now they have completely taken their feet off the pedals. I cannot see how the very much unfinished job of vaccinations is going to balance any of that out and it doesn't seem like enough time has passed to properly see the impact on deaths, even with the current restrictions still in place.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Can we go back to May, please?



* Map only up to 2/7/21, today it's reported as up 98.9% in 7-days to 181 (about 163 per 100k)

 

[sheothebudworths]

Also, re testing - that it's younger people who are more easily/likely to be able to be tested as opposed to either of the last two waves - so it would therefore take longer to wait and see whether that does start to creep up in the older groups (as it seems to be, to a degree).
Looking at the heatmap, it was never going to reflect previous waves when so many younger and asymptomatic people have access to tests now.

 

[Pickman's model]

Can we go back to May, please?

View attachment 277370View attachment 277371

* Map only up to 2/7/21, today it's reported as up 98.9% in 7-days to 181 (about 163 per 100k)

Never mind that may, can we go back to theresa may? Never thought I'd say that

 

[elbows]

I also don't understand the constant claims about the link between cases and hospitalisation being broken/reduced when we are carrying out so many more tests now than previously.
Am I missing something?

Lots of the graphs I do end up showing signs of what vaccines have achieved. However there are good reasons why I am deliberately waiting until this wave reaches some crucial stages before making claims about how much has been achieved and how much of a problem is still clearly evident.

There is a lot of testing these days but there was quite a lot during a big chunk of the second wave too. But one thing that is very clear this time is that older age groups have not been magically spared from the burden of this wave, the picture has been improved compared to what it would be like without vaccines, but there is still exponential growth in older age groups and the implications of that will be increasingly felt.

I do not mind when the Vallances or Whittys of this world go on about the link between cases and hospitalisations being weakened. But I see that Johnson has been using the word severed again today, which is an inappropriate and fucking stupid claim to make. And the data will keep demonstrating this in the weeks ahead.

 

[elbows]

Never mind that may, can we go back to theresa may? Never thought I'd say that

The sad thing is that if we look at Scotlands approach, or the approach of many other 'large economies' nations, Johnson is just an extra dollop of shit on top of a terrible, deadly, approach that all these other nations are still following too.

 

[Dystopiary]

Cold War Steve: