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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Labour are, unsurprisingly, fuckwits trying to have their cake and eat it when it comes to detail. They are largely trying to pick and choose things that sound good to the public who are more concerned about disruption than anything else.

Some bits from the BBC live updates page (14:29 entry of https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57746332/page/2 )

Asked if Labour is in favour of bringing forward the date when self-isolation rules will be eased for those who are double-jabbed, Ashworth tells BBC Radio 4's World at One programme: "I think you can bring it forward if people are taking a daily lateral flow test which has been properly recorded, that there is a PCR test at an appropriate moment throughout that period.

"Otherwise you are going to find huge swathes of public services unable to cope because their workforce will be isolating."
Click to expand...

But the BBC also have a Whitehall source to explain what I've basically been saying for a few weeks, that the government dont dare to change the policy at this stage of this wave because its one of the few brakes they've left available to themselves for at least some stages of this wave without having to reimpose stuff.

A Whitehall source has told the BBC the government received scientific advice that waiting to change the self-isolation policy for the double-jabbed would reduce the peak of the third wave.
Click to expand...

The disruption is one of the brakes!
 
I don't think the majority support continuing restrictions any more. If you have to go out to work which most do to survive then you need to open up.
 
belboid said:
Its pretty poor and says that because we dont really have an absolutely clear idea of what 'long covid' is then it may well not exist. But then goes on to list various examples where people are ill for a long time and breaks them down into different categories (a la Whitty). It's basically an article saying we shouldn't worry about it, we can let it rip now.
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Don't think it says that , at all. I found it interesting to see someone being honest about that temptation everyone feels to 'iron out' any lumpy bits in order to press your side of the argument home.

Also think it may well be correct, that in time a lot of this, particularly the fatigue and muscle weakness versions (that scare me the most) will be added to the long-debated poorly understood and extremely divisive category of things that just get called 'Post Viral Fatigue'. None of that is comforting to me, btw.
 
IC3D said:
I don't think the majority support continuing restrictions any more. If you have to go out to work which most do to survive then you need to open up.
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Yes attitudes shift. A big chunk of people havent shifted in that way, but I wouldnt claim they are still in the majority.

There is bound to be some further shifting though, back in the other direction, as the magnitude of this wave makes itself felt.

And then, if the wave peaks before it reaches utter doom levels, then the government will feel vindicated and all the 'back to normal' stuff that they have set in play will move beyond its early, premature phase and stand a good chance of becoming a more permanent majority view that even manages to be at least partially supported by basic pandemic reality.
 
elbows said:
Yes attitudes shift. A big chunk of people havent shifted in that way, but I wouldnt claim they are still in the majority.

There is bound to be some further shifting though, back in the other direction, as the magnitude of this wave makes itself felt.

And then, if the wave peaks before it reaches utter doom levels, then the government will feel vindicated and all the 'back to normal' stuff that they have set in play will move beyond its early, premature phase and stand a good chance of becoming a more permanent majority view.
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Ive worked in London throughout and it is pretty much normal life now. I know when I go out of London it is strikingly different so attitudes differ.
 
IC3D said:
of course their optional how could they not be?
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The 'exemption' thing is far from perfect (see the number of entire families/social groups who by some shatteringly unlikely coincidence all have legitimate medical exemptions) but it's better than 'do whatever you like' which will rebalance the social pressures involved drastically.
 
These days when I use words like fraction I should probably go out of my way to say that yeah, its a much larger fraction now than it once was. Not that I've looked at the mobility data for a few weeks. London is still lacking in normality numbers on some fronts especially though, eg tourism is still largely on its knees even though there is a bit of it around. Other stuff too, like a larger percentage of jobs in the South East being easier to do from home, again something where the picture is changing but hasnt travelled anywhere near back to normal yet.
 
SpookyFrank said:
The 'exemption' thing is far from perfect (see the number of entire families/social groups who by some shatteringly unlikely coincidence all have legitimate medical exemptions) but it's better than 'do whatever you like' which will rebalance the social pressures involved drastically.
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About 3rd appear to be exempt on the tube and increasing daily. Pisses me off. Went for a cocktail with my sons mum to celebrate a new job. Posh place and a couple coughing their heads off. People are twats often, any public facing worker knows this
 
IC3D said:
About 3rd appear to be exempt on the tube and increasing daily. Pisses me off. Went for a cocktail with my sons mum to celebrate a new job. Posh place and a couple coughing their heads off. People are twats often, any public facing worker knows this
Click to expand...

London is worse for this than anywhere else I've been. And every nine seconds or so the tannoy at the tube stations reminds you about the 10,000 quid fine for not wearing a mask, which just adds insult to injury.
 
Just for the sake of completeness, the BBCs take on the reaction to people realising whatt the delay to changing self-isolation rules means for the coming weeks. Just in case anyone wasnt already sick enough of the spectacle of articles that invite us to go crazy about the number of people that may be asked to self-isolate in the weeks ahead, as opposed to going crazy about how many people getting infected we are invited to expect.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Millions could be self-isolating between now and 16 August

BBC analysis shows more than 4.5 million people could be asked to self-isolate before 16 August.
www.bbc.co.uk

A conservative guess is that we might see 1.5 million cases in the four weeks after 19 July - that would be just over 50,000 cases a day on average.

About three close contacts have been identified for every Covid case reported, according to Test and Trace figures for England in the last month.

So, 1.5 million cases, each with about three contacts, gives us between four and five million contacts who might be asked to isolate between 19 July and 16 August.

And, once restrictions are lifted on 19 July and society opens up further, we might expect to see the numbers of contacts to rise.
Click to expand...

This bit of whats siad is probably based on the same sort of Whitehall briefing that the Standard were on about earlier, just without going on about the 'hybrid immunity' aspect of why they think it might peak in that timeframe:

So why are we doing it? Clearly there is a risk scrapping the self-isolation policy would push up the infection rate.

The hope is in another month the rise in cases will have peaked and the change would not be as risky.
Click to expand...
 
SpookyFrank said:
London is worse for this than anywhere else I've been. And every nine seconds or so the tannoy at the tube stations reminds you about the 10,000 quid fine for not wearing a mask, which just adds insult to injury.
Click to expand...
Is it really 10 grand? I thought it was 200. Imagine if that had been fully enforced across the country. The entire bill for furlough would be an absolute breeze to cover.
 
I really can't believe what is about to happen. My mind is reeling from all this, not wishing to be melodramatic.

I cannot concieve how they can sit back if cases get to at least 100,000 a day. Surely to god the re will be considerable public outcry. You'd think.

But with no restrictions and transmission untramelled by the vaccine....good lord!

I didn't sign up for this, and vaccine aside, this approach just shoves two fingers up at everything we've all done and put up with for the last 15 months. None of that has meant a damn because it's back to square one and their herd immunity madness
 
They are hoping that some of what we know could happen doesnt happen and that things peak sooner/at a lower level than some of the possibilities they've floated in recent days. In which case they'll consider it a big victory and a vindication of the gamble they have taken.

I've still got no idea whether they will get away with the current approach without things busting past the limits they think are tolerable for hospitals etc.

Has Scotland shown some signs of peaking? I hate trying to detect peaks quickly using daily case data. Whatever happens there will offer some clues.
 
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