Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[glitch hiker]

Are they seriosuly now saying we'll see 100,000 cases a day over the course of what's currently passing for a summer?

Have I gone round the bend finally? Surely to god no government, not even this lot, can get away with that?

 

[Supine]

Are they seriosuly now saying we'll see 100,000 cases a day over the course of what's currently passing for a summer?

Have I gone round the bend finally? Surely to god no government, not even this lot, can get away with that?

Javid said 50k by July 19th. Pagel said 50-100k by same date. Forget the end of summer, these are predictions for a couple of weeks time! Exponential growth just gets worse and worse.

 

[BillRiver]

You've been vaccinated since though?

I had my 2nd jab on 8th January.

9 months for me is about 2 months away, and from everything I've read I won't be offered a booster for several months.

I have emphysema (COPD) but am not classed as clinically vulnerable cos it's not that severe, and I'm only 46 years old.

I got my 1st and 2nd jabs by fluke. I felt lucky at the time. I'm not sure I do any more.

 

[BillRiver]

Its a general problem with A&E demand at the moment.

Your ICU figures are out of date. The latest UK number is 369.

if it doubles three times then it will be back at levels that people can more obviously associate with previous nasty waves.

My mate is a nurse in A & E.

She said recently that they've seen a huge increase in people being brought in with high temperatures and difficulty breathing, only about 40% of whom turn out to have Covid.

Of those with Covid, many spent a day or a night on A & E, receiving oxygen and meds to stabilise them before going home.

Obviously others are admitted, but the point being all of them, whether with Covid or with some other cause for their suffering, and whether admitted to the wards or not, make the A & E a busy place right now.

And a busy place that contains a lot of people who might have Covid, and have to be treated as if they do have it (ie kept safely away from other patients, etc) until their test results come back.

 

[Loose meat]

Hospital admissions will be interesting. Johnson keeps talking about the link between cases and admissions being broken. Scientists keep saying the link has been changed. If Johnson really believes what he says he is an absolute bellend.

One of the key pieces of info we need now is how cases actually turn into hospitalisations. Time will tell.

Sort of.

If 1/3 of those dying now are still people over 65 who chose to not have the jab, then we need to know what impact the anti-vaxxers are having on beds and services.

 

[BillRiver]

Newsthump's satire nails it again.

Man wistfully recalls time when Government didn’t actively try to kill its citizens

A man has spent the morning gazing wistfully into the distance remembering a time when the Government didn’t seek to actively kill the population.

newsthump.com

Us who rely on sickness and disability benefits struggle to remember those days.

 

[elbows]

Hospital admissions will be interesting. Johnson keeps talking about the link between cases and admissions being broken. Scientists keep saying the link has been changed. If Johnson really believes what he says he is an absolute bellend.

One of the key pieces of info we need now is how cases actually turn into hospitalisations. Time will tell.

Well even when using linear scale, daily hospital admissions by age group for England have reached a point where the 18-64 curve appears to be reaching a moment of truth. This is a big part of why I keep going on about July.

And when using logarithmic scale, we can also see unpleasant movement in the numbers for the older age groups, and the younger ones.

Its this sort of graph that I will be using to track this picture this month, along with regional versions of the same data and some others that do things like directly compare positive cases to admissions, or look at mechanical ventilator patient numbers.

 

[wtfftw]

So. If having caught covid and not been vaccinated and then you're vulnerable again 9 months later. And you're still not going to be vaccinated because you're a child. It's not even herd immunity is it?

 

[Nine Bob Note]

I look forward to people's foreign holidays being cancelled in three months time due to the new Bognor Regis* variant I also look forward to the democratically-elected representatives of said town spreading said variant to a packed House of Commons. We MUST learn to live with this virus after all I don't doubt my employer will throw me and my colleagues to the wolves for the sake of sales, so it'll be good to know our lords and masters will share in our prosperity.

*I toyed with Milton Keynes and Northampton before I settled on this

Sajid Javid for PM! He's my hero. He's saved organic candle shops IMO

 

[extra dry]

a video from John campbell

 

[zahir]

Thread from Deepti Gurdasani

 

[Orang Utan]

have seen that name crop up often, is Gurdasani an academic?

 

[elbows]

A bunch of the newspapers ranging from the pandemic criminals at the Telegraph and the Daily Mail to the FT and the Guardian have realised what the fact the self isolation rules wont end till mid August means in terms of the disruption and isolation this wave will cause. And have splashed it on their front pages in various ways.

I was wondering how long it would take them to realise the implications of this brake still being in place during the steep rise up this wave.

Newspaper headlines: 'Isolation insanity' and 'Beer we go' as England awaits

The papers consider the risks of extending isolation rules for the fully vaccinated as Euros fever builds.

www.bbc.co.uk

Isolation insanity the fucking Daily Mail calls it. Isolation rules slam the brakes on freedom cries the Telegraph. Business fears staffing carnage warns the FT. Fears 10 million may face summer isolation says the Guardian.

Insanity would be removing that brake right now.

 

[elbows]

I'm just checking when I started going on about the sort of thing those newspapers have now gone crazy about.

June 26th:

As case numbers increase to record levels, we also need to consider other forms of brake that exist within the current system, beyond the handbrake that is lockdown.

For example, assuming plenty of people still get tested and still follow self-isolation rules, as the number of cases in communities increase, we end with a sort of 'partial lockdown by stealth' as various businesses and services including schools and hospitals lose many staff members to self-isolation, and are no longer able to provide a normal service. In future the authorities will look to remove much of this stuff from the picture too, by changing the rules, but those rules havent been removed in time to avoid large disruption in this particular wave.

After all, the government even ended up putting this in their own document about this weeks step 4 announcement:

There will still be high levels of infection and illness and therefore disruption to lives, the economy and delivery of public services.

COVID-19 Response: Summer 2021

www.gov.uk

 

[elbows]

I missed this article on Tuesday:

The Highlands' largest hospital has been placed on "code black status" after reaching capacity amid increasing Covid cases.

NHS Highland said staffing and services at Inverness' Raigmore Hospital were under pressure due to large numbers of staff having to self-isolate.

The health board said its other hospitals and services were facing similar challenges with staffing.

Covid in Scotland: Raigmore Hospital at capacity amid rising cases

Raigmore - the largest hospital in the Highlands - is at "code black status" due to pressure on staff and services.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Three other articles from the BBC in Scotland which have plenty in common with each other.

Broadly the same approach as the UK government, just different flavours of bullshit on offer from government and media like the BBC. Slightly less bullshit in the bullshit than England.

Covid in Scotland: Restrictions to end as planned

Most of Scotland's Covid rules are to be removed despite the country having Europe's highest Covid rates.

www.bbc.co.uk

Does political pressure shape pandemic decisions?

With Scotland and England on the road out of lockdown, does political pressure encourage a "four nation" approach?

www.bbc.co.uk

What happened to Scotland's 'free from Covid' hopes?

In summer 2020, there was talk of being "not far away" from eliminating the virus. That did not happen, but is there still cause for optimism?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Regarding letting it rip amongst younger people, Kwasi Kwarteng was just asked on Sky News if this was just herd immunity again, needless to say he dodged the question.

He'll probably on BBC Breakfast after 7.30am, that's the usual schedule for minsters, Sky just after 7am, followed by the BBC.

 

[zahir]

have seen that name crop up often, is Gurdasani an academic?

Gurdasani, Deepti

www.qmul.ac.uk

 

[LDC]

Just feels like cases are massively taking off now in my wider circle, last few days I keep hearing of people isolating and getting positive tests, including a couple this morning who are both weeks post double vaccinations.

 

[Loose meat]

I haven't heard 'herd immunity' from anyone serious since the first wave. I thought our understanding of the virus and of sciety had got better since then.

Is it really still a thing or just a U75 thing?

 

[belboid]

I haven't heard 'herd immunity' from anyone serious since the first wave. I thought our understanding of the virus had got better since then.

Is it really still a thing or just a U75 thing?

Just fuck off you useless failure

 

[Loose meat]

Just fuck off you useless failure

I see this on social media a lot. And then everyone throws their hands up in horror when someone kills themseleves.

I won't do that but it's interesting to watch how the group dynamic and virtue signalling works with the cool-on-the-internet folks. Desperate, needy stuff.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

I haven't heard 'herd immunity' from anyone serious since the first wave. I thought our understanding of the virus and of sciety had got better since then.

Is it really still a thing or just a U75 thing?

Two things. Firstly, Tories have no understanding of society worth mentioning. Secondly, nobody in government will admit to pursuing a policy of herd immunity now, but that doesn't mean they won't. They can't talk about it, but they may well do it.

 

[glitch hiker]

Us who rely on sickness and disability benefits struggle to remember those days.

Speaking of which, as the government has thrown the responsibility to mask/not mask onto us will that mean, if and when I'm next compelled to a WCA in a sweaty town centre office, will I be able to refuse because I personally don't feel safe?

I think we all know the answer. But if things get as bad as the trained scientists say, what will happen?

 

[Loose meat]

Two things. Firstly, Tories have no understanding of society worth mentioning. Secondly, nobody in government will admit to pursuing a policy of herd immunity now, but that doesn't mean they won't. They can't talk about it, but they may well do it.

I wasn't talking about Gov. I said anyone serious, as in a professional in a relevant field. 'herd immunity' is naive with what we now know, isn't it?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I haven't heard 'herd immunity' from anyone serious since the first wave. I thought our understanding of the virus and of sciety had got better since then.

Is it really still a thing or just a U75 thing?

What the hell do you think they are doing now?

Herd immunity via vaccination in older age groups, and letting it rip among the younger adults & children to produce natural immunity.

Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that can occur with some diseases when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby reducing the likelihood of infection for individuals who lack immunity.

 

[belboid]

I see this on social media a lot. And then everyone throws their hands up in horror when someone kills themseleves.

I won't do that but it's interesting to watch how the group dynamic and virtue signalling works with the cool-on-the-internet folks. Desperate, needy stuff.

Says the troll returning to his vomit for another day

 

[Loose meat]

Urg. You must be a hero to the regulars on here.

 

[two sheds]

Help help I'm being repressed

 

[Johnny Doe]

We've got lots of whole school years sent home to isolate in my area, but all the teachers I know (and that's quite a few) say they think there are a load of false positives. Apparently the kids all know that the NHS tests can be made to give a positive using any drink with some citric acid in. Fruit shoots work every time they reckon. One of best mates says his school has 20 staff isolating due to contact with kids with positive results, but some of the kids have told them and their parents, everyone's faking them. All over tiktok too, so if it's out there, who knows.

I'd think this is rubbish, were it not close friends I trust implicitly saying it

E2A: How children are spoofing Covid-19 tests with soft drinks