Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Sorry if I've missed this and it's already been discussed. Chris Whitty seems to be saying that there will inevitably be a new wave, that it's better to have this in the summer than later in the winter. But if more and more people get vaccinated, and possibly get a booster jab as well, then surely any new wave later on will be substantially lower?

This is partly because they've only been given two options to analyse and choose from - open up now or open up later this year.

Its also because there doesnt seen to be a plan to vaccinate people under 18, so there is a huge pool of the population that they are tempted to build up immunity in via infection rather than vaccination!

Its partly because they dont know what percentage of younger adult population will actually take them up on the offer of vaccination (generally this percentage drops the younger people are). And they dont really know how many people will take up the offer to have boosters. Or what properties the latest variant will have by then. Or indeed whether any combination of these things will actually unlock a level of overall population immunity that achieves key thresholds that 'keep everyone safer' and stops large waves.

Typical, somewhat simplistic modelling tends to imply that with the current approach and timing, the current wave will be large but may live up to their hopes of being an 'exit wave', beyond which there could still be smaller waves at times but nothing like seen previously. The modelling has it limitations, eg they have to make certain assumptions about vaccine effectiveness and they cant predict the future of variants.

 

[elbows]

For example I could use the pyramid of first doses given, from the weekly surveillance report, to offer clues about what the ultimate level of vaccine uptake will be in different age groups.


From National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports

 

[gentlegreen]

Presumably the infected younger population will be where the virus does its mutating ?
Though the same thing applies to vast swathes of the planet.

 

[wtfftw]

So. How long does immunity from infection last?

 

[elbows]

Presumably the infected younger population will be where the virus does its mutating ?
Though the same thing applies to vast swathes of the planet.

It may not be that straightforward. Plenty of people in older age groups are getting infected right now. And this pandemic has offered an opportunity to study the evolution of the virus in practice, which may reveal surprises compared to the prior theoretical picture scientists etc used in the past.

We know that on paper vaccinating lots of people, or a large chunk of the population having immunity from prior infection, creates a selection pressure. For the virus to thrive, it must find a way round this immunity. The extent to which it will, and how quickly, remains to be seen. There are already examples of mutations that include such advantages, but they havent had enough overall advantage compared to other strains to become the dominant one yet. Over time these equations shift and imune escape advantages become the key advantage.

 

[elbows]

So. How long does immunity from infection last?

They dont know. They will only know once enough time has gone by to see it happening.

The reality will probably be messy. There is more than one part of the immune system at work. Protection via vaccination may last a different length of time to protection via natural infection. And in the oldest age groups the timetable may be quite different compared to those who responded more robustly, on more different immune levels, to vaccination or infection. There may also be considerable differences between people who have had no infection and two vaccine shots, and those who've caught covid at least once and then been vaccinated later. Plus differences between different vaccines, and differences between different strains of the virus.

 

[killer b]

I was talking to Mrs B's niece at the weekend - she started uni last September and she and all her flatmates caught covid within a week of arriving (she was pretty ill)

She says over the last month loads of her peers have caught it again - so while it's obviously going to vary, 9 months seems like a reasonable length of time to start feeling nervous

 

[miss direct]

I hope the shops don't all remove the spaced out things for queueing. That's something I would like to keep forever, virus or no virus.

 

[Loose meat]

Just logged on. Saw the last posts. Why fucking even bother: the U75 Brains Trust. Logs out.

 

[2hats]

So. How long does immunity from infection last?

0-2+ years.

 

[elbows]

The track record of the collective wisdom of this place in this pandemic speaks for itself. Very impressive everyone, I am so happy I chose this place to do my pandemic ranting. I trust your brains far more than the authorities pathetic handling of this pandemic. We've only had a very small number of pandemic-denying bores and know-nothing idiots, and they mostly restrict themselves to popping up and making the usual noises for brief periods when the government is setting out relaxation steps or new restrictions. They are rarely ever to be spotted at times when a nasty wave actually happens and high volumes of hospitalisations and deaths abound.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Great. Just when the idiots in charge are going to relax all restrictions on the 19th:

Well, we’re boned

 

[teqniq]

There's a Lambda variant too first identified in December 2020. it is causing some concern:

Lambda variant: What is the new strain of Covid detected in the UK?

Scientists are concerned the latest strain could be more infectious and resistant to vaccines

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Pickman's model]

There's a Lambada variant too first identified in December 2020. it is causing some concern:

Lambda variant: What is the new strain of Covid detected in the UK?

Scientists are concerned the latest strain could be more infectious and resistant to vaccines

www.independent.co.uk

sadly there will never be a lambada variant

 

[teqniq]

fixed

 

[elbows]

I see the details of the removal of contact-related self-isolation for under 18's, school bubbles and double-jabbed adults has indeed been announced today.

As I've been boring on about recently once hints about the plan started to appear, they arent confident enough to do this till next term for schools, and not till mid August for adults.

Its not sensible but exactly how mad I go about it will depend in part on what the levels of infection are like by then. I also note that they havent gone for a regime where the school bubbles are replaced by more testing, it sounds like there will actually be less testing there than there has been so far this year.

Covid bubbles to be axed in England's schools

Restrictions in England's schools are axed, as 641,000 pupils miss school due to Covid regulations.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Self-isolation to be scrapped for double-jabbed and children in England

Under-18s in England also won't have to self-isolate if a close contact tests positive from 16 August.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[wtfftw]

I was talking to Mrs B's niece at the weekend - she started uni last September and she and all her flatmates caught covid within a week of arriving (she was pretty ill)

She says over the last month loads of her peers have caught it again - so while it's obviously going to vary, 9 months seems like a reasonable length of time to start feeling nervous

Hah. I'm at 9 months.

 

[Wilf]

Probably not tbh, although chatting to your union would be a starting point. Lots of this stuff is going to depend on the reasonableness of your boss/employer I think.

I've just been in my union exec (UCU) and talking about the full return to the campus. The University still hasn't published it's plans but we are expecting some sort of 'hybrid model' in terms of the teaching (combination of in person and online). But when it comes down to it, the expectation is the university will insist on people coming in - and that all social distancing will be abandoned on campus (following johnson's lead, the cunt). For staff with health conditions or anxieties, there may be 'support', but ultimately it will be turn the fuck up. For those who don't, longer term, they will be facing competency proceedings.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Just logged on. Saw the last posts. Why fucking even bother: the U75 Brains Trust. Logs out.

Off ya fuck then. Is that OK? Is that all the attention you need now or do you need a little bit more to feel validated?

 

[Wilf]

I would certainly question this with your employer and make clear your objections and reasons. When Johnson was doing his time to get back to work nonsense last summer as numbers were beginning to soar my partner's employer tried to get everyone back in and she just told them she was asthmatic and really not keen and they were fine with that.

It will depend on the employer in how decent they are but I think in general a blanket refusal to return to work is legally unstable ground.

My employer was already gearing for everyone to be back at work even before yesterday's gubbins. After a year of being really worried that covid sweeping through the factories would essentially shut us down they now think its fine to just go back to normal. I did query it with my manager and just got the standard shrug in response.

It does feel like we're living in some sort of weird parallel world at the moment.

Johnson's message was pretty much 'get back to work, no social distancing'. ONce he's said that, I'd have thought most employers have very few obligations beyond existing legislation. Crazy situation. Taking me as an example, I've been working from home and been in semi isolation for a year or more due to health issues. Cases are about to rocket and if I get the virus there's a statistically high chance it will be at work, teaching in a university that has plans for seminars of up to 30 students per class. In the absence of social distancing, work will be an unsafe place for a lot of people (and of course has been all the way through for others).

 

[killer b]

Hah. I'm at 9 months.

You've been vaccinated since though?

 

[elbows]

Johnson's message was pretty much 'get back to work, no social distancing'. ONce he's said that, I'd have thought most employers have very few obligations beyond existing legislation. Crazy situation. Taking me as an example, I've been working from home and been in semi isolation for a year or more due to health issues. Cases are about to rocket and if I get the virus there's a statistically high chance it will be at work, teaching in a university that has plans for seminars of up to 30 students per class. In the absence of social distancing, work will be an unsafe place for a lot of people (and of course has been all the way through for others).

In practice the existing pre-pandemic legislation may still end up placing various requirements on business. See this bit of the document released yesterday:

‘Working Safely’ guidance will be updated to provide examples of sensible precautions that employers can take to reduce risk in their workplaces. Employers should take account of this guidance in preparing the risk assessments they are already required to make under pre-pandemic health and safety rules.

From COVID-19 Response: Summer 2021

It also sounds like local public health teams will still get involved if there are outbreaks in specific settings.

 

[2hats]

I've lost track of whether they or anybody else uses such estimates to keep a rough running total of estimated number of infections so far. The UK dashboard is up to over 4.8 million confirmed positive cases so far, but we know it missed the vast bulk of the first wave ones in addition to all the ones it hasnt picked up as we've gone through subsequent waves.

Could easily be in the 10-20 million ballpark (maybe 3-4 times numbers from daily testing - DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.09.21251411).

Just to add to this - seroprevalence seen in blood donors (England) would hint currently somewhere in the region of 10-15 million (UK).

 

[andysays]

I've just been in my union exec (UCU) and talking about the full return to the campus. The University still hasn't published it's plans but we are expecting some sort of 'hybrid model' in terms of the teaching (combination of in person and online). But when it comes down to it, the expectation is the university will insist on people coming in - and that all social distancing will be abandoned on campus (following johnson's lead, the cunt). For staff with health conditions or anxieties, there may be 'support', but ultimately it will be turn the fuck up. For those who don't, longer term, they will be facing competency proceedings.

Is your union, either nationally or locally, saying anything about that?

Are they planning to resist it or just go along with it?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Our local hospital is now saying don't turn up with anything not life-threatening, as numbers of covid cases plus 18 months of backlog have put them a gnat's bollock away from collapse. This is one of the biggest hospitals in the south west, where the population is likely to increase by a factor of three or four times in a fortnight or so when school holidays start.

 

[elbows]

Our local hospital is now saying don't turn up with anything not life-threatening, as numbers of covid cases plus 18 months of backlog have put them a gnat's bollock away from collapse. This is one of the biggest hospitals in the south west, where the population is likely to increase by a factor of three or four times in a fortnight or so when school holidays start.

Just to add that the current pressure is also caused by people getting injured etc when returning to more normal behaviours, and also a resurgence in various other respiratory illnesses, including in children, at levels more usually seen during winters.

 

[two sheds]

Our local hospital is now saying don't turn up with anything not life-threatening, as numbers of covid cases plus 18 months of backlog have put them a gnat's bollock away from collapse. This is one of the biggest hospitals in the south west, where the population is likely to increase by a factor of three or four times in a fortnight or so when school holidays start.

SpookyFrank Not Exeter I hope - a mate has to have urgent back surgery (possibility of paralysis with but also without) but has been told Truro has a year's waiting list and he'll have to go to Exeter.

 

[elbows]

Just to add to this - seroprevalence seen in blood donors (England) would hint currently somewhere in the region of 10-15 million (UK).
View attachment 277213 View attachment 277214

Cheers. I tend to apply an additional range of uncertainty to the blood-donor based figures, since they've seen signs that this group doesnt represent all sections of society well and is more illustrative of levels of antibodies in a subset of the population rather than the whole. But I forgot where I last read about that.

 

[Wilf]

Is your union, either nationally or locally, saying anything about that?

Are they planning to resist it or just go along with it?

Nationally, there will be a push on safe working, locally less so. It will all be about making sure the university 'supports' staff amid unsafe working rather than resisting it. A 'non militant' branch, with me as the lone leftist on the Exec, a really shitty situation that gets even shittier in these circumstances.

Having said that, now that johnson has said 'no social distancing, normality, get back to work', the legal/quasi-legal grounds on which you can object to unsafe Covid working are limited. It's why of course you need high levels of unionisation and political strategies of resistance.

 

[elbows]

SpookyFrank Not Exeter I hope - a mate has to have urgent back surgery (possibility of paralysis with but also without) but has been told Truro has a year's waiting list and he'll have to go to Exeter.

Most stories about current overload apply to A&E departments so far, but obviously there are other sorts of capacity problems in other parts of the hospital system.