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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

On the data front it is not surprising that government and experts have started making more positive noises about the situation recently.

I'm more optimistic than I was because the strong impact of vaccines is showing up clearly in most data, and its probably fair to say that the figures have not been going up as quickly as it looked like they were a few weeks ago. But I am extremely wary of getting too carried away with that, since I always fear that pressures can mount up, and that tipping points could yet be reached. Plus in previous waves some took too much comfort from periods where figures only seemed to be growing slowly, being caught off guard when the pace or inevitable consequences of exponential growth took off. And I'm not very happy with the ICU numbers and the Covid pressure on hospitals combined with all the other pressures hospitals are facing at the moment.

A wide range of possibilities are still plausible as far as this wave goes, so I have to wait more weeks before I can think it wise to have a more hopeful picture of this wave really solidify in my mind.

One example of an expert saying the data is encouraging:


Professor Ferguson explained: “We are seeing as we expected rises in case numbers across the country, but they have slowed slightly compared with a couple of weeks ago, and we’re seeing rises in hospitalisations and indeed in deaths but again they’re at a much lower level compared with cases than they were previously, demonstrating the high effectiveness of vaccines at protecting people particularly against severe illness.”

And from the 9:49 entry of BBC live updates page: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57577068

He also says "it is clear" two doses of vaccine offers a high level of protection and even those who do get infected are "almost certainly probably 50% less infectious".

And some shit about schools:

On the question of schoolchildren, who we know are facing disruption as children are sent home to isolate, he says the measures are proving relatively effective at stopping large outbreaks in schools.

"That picture will continue for a few weeks more until we get past the third wave which will unfold in the next couple of months," Ferguson, from Imperial College London, tells the programme.

One example of NHS fears over rising number of Covid cases on ventilators:

 
Dosing appears to be levelling off at progressively lower levels in younger cohorts. The target immunity threshold likely needs to be around 85%.
E4jSVpoWEAAbt0Y
 
Yeah and the media have been very poor at picking up on that, they'd rather just go along with the flow by doing easy stories about long queues at vaccination centres when they were opened for younger people. But high demand upon initial availability is not a guide as to what proportion of those age groups will actually seek vaccination.
 
Nor have the media done a good job of pointing out the decline in daily vaccination figures in recent weeks, in an era that was painted as a big rush to vaccinate people during the delay to step 4 of unlocking. Not that this is a good moment for me to show that graph, since IT issues earlier in the week mean that the recent figures for England are missing. Apparently all that data will be present when the dashboard is updated later today.

I see there is a press conference at 5pm with the vaccines minister.
 
Fair point, but money has always been a factor in who can travel where. With all the 'surge pricing' on domestic holidays a lot of people won't be able to go anywhere this year. We probably won't.
Yeah, it doesn't seem to occur to the "Weh, weh, we can't go on holiday abroad this year" that that's the reality every year for loads of people.

eta: Not saying that that's what bimble was saying!
 
Yeah and the media have been very poor at picking up on that, they'd rather just go along with the flow by doing easy stories about long queues at vaccination centres when they were opened for younger people. But high demand upon initial availability is not a guide as to what proportion of those age groups will actually seek vaccination.
Similar problem in the US.
usvaxbyage.png
 
Just anecdotally it seems to have changed. 3 weeks ago I knew nobody who'd had symptoms, positive tests, or had to isolate etc. for ages. In the last 1-2 weeks loads of kids of friends sent home with contact, a few positive tests, lots of people with some symptoms. Does feel very similar to the foothills of the last wave in that way.
 
This is inevitable now. Surely? The scientists have been screaming out (if Twitter is any indication) but the fucking Torycunts...

SMH
 
Cases going up is inevitable. How that translates into hospitalizations and deaths is less clear. And what's even less clear is what levels of deaths people will accept as alright when the July date comes about. And what the impact of it all will mean for the capacity of the NHS, deaths or not.
 
Ah, you should have quoted my post, to me looked like you were referring to the one I made just above. Yeah, some of the upsurge in symptoms definitely non-covid viral stuff going about, they're expecting a bad winter with flu etc. But the positive case numbers do show massive increase in covid cases alongside that too.
 
This is inevitable now. Surely? The scientists have been screaming out (if Twitter is any indication) but the fucking Torycunts...

SMH

Depends which scientists. Some have been more relaxed about the current plan than others, and I already talked about the optimistic sentiments some were expressing earlier. Todays figures should help stop the optimists from getting too carried away.

Todays big leap in reported cases seems mostly to have been caused by the number of speciments taken on Monday that have come back positive. Scotland especially has posted a very large number indeed, but its true more broadly than that too.

I am still scrunching away at various data that shows cases and hospitalisations by age group, so I can get a better understanding of the current picture. I'm doing a lot of manual processing and its taking ages. I will probably be able to share some graphs later in the week, looking at some regions in particular.

Londons figures dont currently have as steep a trajectory as some other regions, so the bullshit where the media and government find it easier to carry on as normal when London isnt hitting a crisis tipping point may be in effect at the moment.
 
Todays big leap in reported cases seems mostly to have been caused by the number of speciments taken on Monday that have come back positive. Scotland especially has posted a very large number indeed, but its true more broadly than that too.
The last round of REACT-1 hinted that the daily testing numbers are (of late) under-reporting by a factor of at least something like 3-5x.
 
Just anecdotally it seems to have changed. 3 weeks ago I knew nobody who'd had symptoms, positive tests, or had to isolate etc. for ages. In the last 1-2 weeks loads of kids of friends sent home with contact, a few positive tests, lots of people with some symptoms. Does feel very similar to the foothills of the last wave in that way.
Same here. My brother has to isolate. Some students came to his tutorial with covid, they thought they had hay fever. My work place has seen a pretty large jump in cases especially in postgrads and final year students.
 
The last round of REACT-1 hinted that the daily testing numbers are (of late) under-reporting by a factor of at least something like 3-5x.

Yes that would not be surprising. ANy idea if the picture has changed much compared to the second wave when it comes to figures captured by testing compared to estimates based on random sample-based surveillance?

I still have to make use of daily testing numbers since the population survey based stuff has so much lag.
 
oooh, oohhh I know ! or I can guess ...

and possible locations for near super-spreader events, and it wasn't the G7 !

[maybe - something to do with two teams of 11 kicking a round ball ???]
 
Assuming I havent mangled the data during processing, here is a look at some positive cases by age for the North West region.

The 0-19 age group has 7 day rolling averages for positive cases by specimen date that are higher than seen previously in the pandemic.

Zooming in further, its the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups which are posting record numbers. Obviously the testing system has changed over time so that needs to be factored in when making these comparisons. 15-19 numbers are high but havent passed the previous peak for the North West yet. Likewise the 20-24 age group for this region.

The yellow and grey lines in the first graph, representing over 60's and those aged 40-59 in the North West testing positive, are what passes as the good news in this sort of data, the reason government attitude remains different this time around, at least so far.

Screenshot 2021-06-23 at 20.36.jpg

Screenshot 2021-06-23 at 20.23.jpg

When the next weekly data by region and age is out, I will use it to check whether I've mangled anything when trying to prepare this data.

Some of the falls at the end of these curves are because this data is cases by specimen date, so most recent figures are incomplete. Whether there is anything else going on with the testing/data system that would explain some broader recent blunting of some of those curves I cannot currently say. Some of the trajectories have gone a bit odd more recently but I dont have clues as to why, or whether or not it represents a real change in the infection picture. I havent done every region yet, but this stuff seems especially pronounced in the North West. Other areas that are high on my priority list for this sort of data, because the overall case trajectory in those regions is rather steep, are the North East, Yorkshire and Humber, and the South West.
 
oooh, oohhh I know ! or I can guess ...

and possible locations for near super-spreader events, and it wasn't the G7 !

[maybe - something to do with two teams of 11 kicking a round ball ???]
I can't/can believe they've allowed the fucking football. Utter fucking madness IMO. How many fans will leave the country going home to spread the delta? How many more spreading it locally?
 
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