Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[zahir]

elbows - do you think it's possible that variants could develop with significantly higher mortality rates? comparable say with the original SARS.

 

[elbows]

elbows - do you think it's possible that variants could develop with significantly higher mortality rates? comparable say with the original SARS.

I tend to take most attempts to work out an infection fatality rate or a case fatality rate with a pinch of salt, so I'm a bit vague about such matters in some ways. For example I'm not really sure the original SARS outbreak was large enough for me to have a fully sense of what the mortality rate for the original SARS actually was. And I get drawn into other important detail such as how that rate increases with age both with SARS and the various versions of SARS-CoV-2 we've seen so far in this pandemic.

Certainly there are some assumptions made by some in media and various professions about how viruses will naturally evolve in a less deadly direction to be out of date and unsafe. So I certainly dont rule out variants with mutations that make the disease worse in some people. With the current Delta variant there have already been some forms of analysis which imply an increased risk of hospitalisation. But I do keep in mind that the present and future picture is now a messy one, full of even more factors interacting in complicated ways.

For example its not hard to find quotes and stories about how its an increase in transmissive abilities of a variant that bothers experts more than a rise in its deadliness, because transmission makes a very large difference to the size of an outbreak, size of the wave, and that has a large impact on how many people will die.

And the ability of a variant to overcome existing immunity would be expected to make a huge difference to what will happen in future.

Take those possibilities and add in the population immunity we've got from infections and from vaccinations, and peoples changing behaviour and attitudes towards the pandemic, and various treatments and improvements to clinical management of cases, and a whole bunch of other stuff, and we get some sense of how messy things are.

I do not intend to 'learn to live with the virus' in the ways the government would like. But so far the biggest genuine step I cant take in terms of 'coming to terms with the virus and its ongoing implications', is to accept the large degree of uncertainty, the swarming mass of partially understood detail and a never ending array of questions, the chaos and its resistance to attempts to paint a neatly ordered picture of it. I am left with an open mind about how the virus will evolve over the next few years. But we've had a much better view of its evolution so far in this pandemic than we've had with other viruses in the past. Given what its been able to achieve so far in terms of increased ease of transmission, if I've learnt one thing about the evolution of the virus so far its that it would be unwise to ignore the potential for ongoing trouble on this front.

 

[Cat Fan]

Hi chaps, just wondering if anyone has traveled to an amber list country recently and if so what providers they used for testing.

Lambeth is doing asymptomatic surge PCR testing but for whatever reason NHS PCR tests aren't "good enough" for travel.

 

[LDC]

Hi chaps, just wondering if anyone has traveled to an amber list country recently and if so what providers they used for testing.

Lambeth is doing asymptomatic surge PCR testing but for whatever reason NHS PCR tests aren't "good enough" for travel.

Nothing to do with 'not good enough'. It's to stop the NHS testing capacity being over-whelmed when used for personal travel reasons.

 

[Cat Fan]

Nothing to do with 'not good enough'. It's to stop the NHS testing capacity being over-whelmed when used for personal travel reasons.

I understand the point but it does seem silly that if people happen to have got an NHS test anyway (that we all paid for through our taxes) then they need to get a second private test.

Did you have any insight into my question or just wanted to score points?

 

[Supine]

I understand the point but it does seem silly that if people happen to have got an NHS test anyway (that we all paid for through our taxes) then they need to get a second private test.

Did you have any insight into my question or just wanted to score points?

if you had a PCR test on the NHS due to need you wouldn’t be travelling.

if your ok and need a travel PCR pay for it yourself. Seems fair to me.

 

[nagapie]

if you had a PCR test on the NHS due to need you wouldn’t be travelling.

if your ok and need a travel PCR pay for it yourself. Seems fair to me.

A lot of areas are doing mass PCR testing because of Delta.

 

[Supine]

A lot of areas are doing mass PCR testing because of Delta.

so depending on your view 1. You are lucky, use the test or 2. If you live in a surge area you really shouldn’t be leaving it to go abroad.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I understand the point but it does seem silly that if people happen to have got an NHS test anyway (that we all paid for through our taxes) then they need to get a second private test.

Did you have any insight into my question or just wanted to score points?

My taxes are not paid to fund your holiday. Next.

 

[LDC]

I understand the point but it does seem silly that if people happen to have got an NHS test anyway (that we all paid for through our taxes) then they need to get a second private test.

Did you have any insight into my question or just wanted to score points?

I was correcting your mistake that 'NHS tests weren't good enough', not scoring points. And if people happen to have an NHS test that means they don't need to pay for one for their trip away, then some people will 'happen to have symptoms' before they go on holiday so they can get an NHS test.

There's been discussion on private PCR tests on other threads, this one tends to be for more national big picture stuff.

 

[andysays]

I understand the point but it does seem silly that if people happen to have got an NHS test anyway (that we all paid for through our taxes) then they need to get a second private test.

Did you have any insight into my question or just wanted to score points?

I was talking to a friend the other day who plans to fly to the US tomorrow for the first time since all this kicked off to visit family etc.

She had to have a negative test taken no more than three days before her planned day of travel, so was taking the test Friday.

If you just happen to be taking a test three days before your planned day of travel, either because you have symptoms or because you live in a surge area where everyone is being urged to get a test, you probably shouldn't be travelling anyway.

 

[Maltin]

I was talking to a friend the other day who plans to fly to the US tomorrow for the first time since all this kicked off to visit family etc.

She had to have a negative test taken no more than three days before her planned day of travel, so was taking the test Friday.

If you just happen to be taking a test three days before your planned day of travel, either because you have symptoms or because you live in a surge area where everyone is being urged to get a test, you probably shouldn't be travelling anyway.

Are they a US citizen? I think it is still quite difficult to go to the US if you are not and have been living in the UK

 

[Elpenor]

Look in the comments of frequent flyer blogs where the other selfish cunts are discussing the options.

Alternatively stop doing the virus a favour and spreading it round the world

 

[andysays]

Are they a US citizen? I think it is still quite difficult to go to the US if you are not and have been living in the UK

You're quite right, she mentioned that.

She has dual US/UK citizenship.

She also mentioned that she won't need to quarantine when she arrives in the US, but will need to do so (at home) for 10 days when she gets back.

 

[andysays]

Looks like Andy Burnham is outing himself as a COVID cunt again

'It's completely disproportionate' - Burnham on travel ban​

The Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham has accused the Scottish government of "double standards", after it banned Scots from non-essential travel to and from parts of the city.

Speaking to Nick Robinson on the BBC's Andrew Marr show, he said he would be writing to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to demand compensation for holidaymakers and businesses.

 

[magneze]

King of the North, well not that far North. King of the sandwich in between the North and the Midlands? Actually it's a bit smaller than that isn't it. King of the pickle in the Northern sandwich.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Although both the government & Cornwall council denies the G7 was a superspreader event, the figures seem to indicate it was.

Areas of Cornwall where G7 events were focused saw infections rise more than 2,000 per cent in the seven days leading up to the end of the meeting between global leaders .

The area around Carbis Bay, where the summit took place, and Falmouth, where the world’s media were based along with many of the 6,000 of officers policing the event and protesters, are now suffering some of the highest rates of infection in the country.

The rate of Covid-19 infections in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly during the week to, and including, 13 June has risen from 2.8 per 100,000 people on the Sunday before G7 began to 81.7 per 100,000. This compares to a national average of 77.4 per 100,000.

But it is in the areas most closely linked to G7 events where rates are of particular concern to local health chiefs.

The rate of infection in St Ives and Halsetown has risen 2,450 per cent in the seven day period to 733.2 per 100,000 people in the seven days to 13 June, when the summit came to an end. In the council ward of St Ives East, Lelant & Carbis Bay the rate has risen by 800 per cent to 294.9 per 100,000 people in the same period.

In a number of Falmouth council wards the rates are now more than 500 per 100,000, with Falmouth East hit by a 2,000 per cent rise in infections to 600 per 100,000.

Yeah, nothing to see here, move along.

G7 was ‘super spreading’ event in Cornwall as cases go up 2,450% after Johnson summit

Locals, politicians and business leaders call on Government to implement surge testing in G7 Covid clusters as young hospitality staff fall ill forcing the closure of dozens of businesses

inews.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Looks like Andy Burnham is outing himself as a COVID cunt again

'It's completely disproportionate' - Burnham on travel ban​

Thanks for pointing that out, I am sick of ranting about him so I'm always glad when someone else does it instead.

I dont really understand what took Scotland so long, I support travel restrictions in regards badly affected areas but I dont know what threshold Scotland are using, and a greater impact from restrictions would be expected if they were done early.

For future reference both the recommendations and the formal bans Scotland imposes are listed on this website:

NRS Web Continuity Service

www.gov.scot

In terms of their recommendations rather than the fully banned areas, they recommend looking at the list of places in England that the government says have fast spreading Delta outbreaks:

Living safely with respiratory infections, including COVID-19

Guidance for living safely with respiratory infections, including coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.gov.uk

Speaking of that list for England, I am reminded that when Bolton ended up on that list, there was an argument about the recommendations in regards not travelling to or from those areas. Since the UK government were keen, for their own shitty reasons, to avoid the impression of local lockdowns this time around, they backed down somewhat on that at the time. But I note that the page in question still lists 'Minimise travel in and out of affected areas' in their pathetically worded list of 'Wherever possible, you should try to:' things for those areas.

Part of this 'learning to live with covid' phase seems to be deliberately weak and understated public health messaging, both directly and via the media, lacking in both high profile drawing of attention towards the detail, and lack of repetition at every opportunity. With the main exception being, rather obviously given the governments approach, getting vaccinated.

 

[elbows]

One of the things that bothers me about the current situation is the interaction between the resurgence of the virus, and the way that A&E has come under severe pressure in recent times, presumably because quite a lot of people resumed activities that led to injury or illness or no longer putting off seeking treatment. The lack of capacity in our healthcare system is exposed in many ways by the pandemic, and in some ways this story has only just begun.

 

[two sheds]

Although both the government & Cornwall council denies the G7 was a superspreader event, the figures seem to indicate it was.





Yeah, nothing to see here, move along.

G7 was ‘super spreading’ event in Cornwall as cases go up 2,450% after Johnson summit

Locals, politicians and business leaders call on Government to implement surge testing in G7 Covid clusters as young hospitality staff fall ill forcing the closure of dozens of businesses

inews.co.uk

A neighbour died last week and I was asked to go to the funeral, which I'd have really liked to do but I asked his wife whether she'd mind if I didn't go for exactly this reason. She was fine about it and I asked whether it was being videoed and it is so I'll watch it instead.

 

[elbows]

One of the things that bothers me about the current situation is the interaction between the resurgence of the virus, and the way that A&E has come under severe pressure in recent times, presumably because quite a lot of people resumed activities that led to injury or illness or no longer putting off seeking treatment. The lack of capacity in our healthcare system is exposed in many ways by the pandemic, and in some ways this story has only just begun.

I missed out the signs that failure of other parts of the system to meet pent up demand, eg via GPs, are part of the reason A&E departments are in deep shit. Plus Covid infection control measures having affected capacity and speed of case processing.

 

[elbows]

Its becoming more common to see articles discussing why Delta got so bad in the UK so quickly. With emphasis on how the dynamics work when initial seeding involves large numbers:

There's an element of chance - if five people arrive in the UK carrying the variant, you could get lucky and none of them would pass it on. If 500 come in, it's just more likely at least one will pass on their infection, or even be a super-spreader.

So the difference between five and 500 travellers entering with the Delta variant won't be exactly 100 times the infections - it could be the difference between the variant fizzling out altogether and it taking off.

Covid: Why has the Delta variant spread so quickly in UK?

It is now the dominant strain in the UK - but the rest of the world may well follow suit.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Glad it isnt just me that thinks this kind of thing....

 

[Cat Fan]

My taxes are not paid to fund your holiday. Next.

My taxes are not paid to fund your holiday. Next.

Did I say I was going on holiday?

A member of my wife's family has passed and we want to visit the family she has left (for the first time in years).

 

[Cat Fan]

so depending on your view 1. You are lucky, use the test or 2. If you live in a surge area you really shouldn’t be leaving it to go abroad.

If the government really cared about (2) wouldn't they put additional restrictions on so called "surge areas"?

 

[Cat Fan]

I was correcting your mistake that 'NHS tests weren't good enough', not scoring points. And if people happen to have an NHS test that means they don't need to pay for one for their trip away, then some people will 'happen to have symptoms' before they go on holiday so they can get an NHS test.

There's been discussion on private PCR tests on other threads, this one tends to be for more national big picture stuff.

Ok finally getting close to answering my question, thanks. Which other thread?

 

[Cat Fan]

Look in the comments of frequent flyer blogs where the other selfish cunts are discussing the options.

Alternatively stop doing the virus a favour and spreading it round the world

I have never been on a frequent flier blog and don't know where to find one.

I'm vaccinated, extremely careful and have never had coronavirus symptoms. I came to ask a simple question not be a scapegoat for everyone's anxiety about rising cases FFS.

If you want something to get angry about, how about the government's plans to let thousands of people in without isolating for the football?

 

[2hats]

You need to find out which test providers are acceptable to your transit/destination countries.

Then follow the UK government instructions on your return (they list approved providers that you can purchase tests from).

Travel abroad - GOV.UK

Includes the latest travel advice by country, your rights at the airport and getting help abroad

www.gov.uk

 

[LDC]

I have never been on a frequent flier blog and don't know where to find one.

I'm vaccinated, extremely careful and have never had coronavirus symptoms. I came to ask a simple question not be a scapegoat for everyone's anxiety about rising cases FFS.

If you want something to get angry about, how about the government's plans to let thousands of people in without isolating for the football?

Sorry to hear about your relative.

There's some discussion on a few threads, inc. the general covid chat one iirc, but it is a bit scattered all over the place as not many here have traveled. Is it a recommendation for a place to get tested you're after, or just some chat on the process etc. or something else. Try the search function maybe?

 

[Cat Fan]

Sorry to hear about your relative.

There's some discussion on a few threads, inc. the general covid chat one iirc, but it is a bit scattered all over the place as not many here have traveled. Is it a recommendation for a place to get tested you're after, or just some chat on the process etc. or something else. Try the search function maybe?

Hoping for a recommendation really, because it's a stressful process and the penalty for something going wrong is high.