Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

It's a non story imo. Supplies will go up and down as batches are released and shipped. One week is a good news story and one week is a disaster story. I've not heard anything about serious issues in the supply chain so almost certainly just natural variation as batches arrive and get used.

That description is a poor fit with what has happened. A 5 million dose shortfall from India is not trivial and deserves the attention it is getting at the moment. Not that I am at all pleased that the UK was supposed to be getting 10 million doses from India at this stage, I'm sure some people will find ways to justify that but I never will.

 

[elbows]

I doubt this will come of any surprise to anyone here, up to 27,000 extra deaths.

Delaying England's winter lockdown 'caused up to 27,000 extra Covid deaths'

Thinktank says government’s decision was a ‘huge mistake’ and should be central to any pandemic inquiry

www.theguardian.com

That number is far lower than I would have said, even taking into account that they are talking about England rather than the UK as a whole.

A big part of the reason for this is that their analysis is focussing on December onwards, when we know that bad mistakes were made for months before then, such as failure to do an early circuit breaker and failure to make the November lockdown strong enough. And they arent counting deaths that were at or below the level of daily death already reached at that point, which was not an inconsiderable amount.

The number would also be easier to judge and put in context if the media talked about number of deaths in the second wave rather than just the overall running total. I will just have to disclose such figures myself:

Between 1st September 2020 and 5th March 2021, latest available data shows there were 77,217 covid-19 death certificate deaths in England! For the UK as a whole the number is 89,863. No wonder they dont draw attention to this.

Not all of those deaths were preventable with better and more timely action. But I'm not going to be able to buy into the idea that 50,000 of them were not preventable in England.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Possibly just an attempt to get some control of the vaccine narrative which is drifting away from them? Seems to be what politicians actually bother about rather than any new and useful information.

Yeah I'd have thought so. If it's not that it will be in the news in the next hour or so anyway.

 

[Teaboy]

That description is a poor fit with what has happened. A 5 million dose shortfall from India is not trivial and deserves the attention it is getting at the moment. Not that I am at all pleased that the UK was supposed to be getting 10 million doses from India at this stage, I'm sure some people will find ways to justify that but I never will.

Who's doing that then? Anyone here?

 

[elbows]

If I mean here then I'll say so, and will address specific posts.

So far I'd generalise by suggesting the most common response from people is to not know quite what to say about this, or to look the other way, or to try to lump it in with general evil big pharma stuff.

I'm not going to go nuts at people for not knowing what to say, or for having a conflicted feelings over certain aspects, especially right now.

 

[Sunray]

Who's doing that then? Anyone here?

In a normal year, India produces more than 1/2 of the world's supply of vaccines and tonnes of other medications, we buy a lot from them. So I don't see why ordering from them is an issue. India is an amazingly strange place and I recommend everyone go stay there for a while.

I'm fairly certain the UK will be charged a decent price for them. Other poorer countries might get a better deal or even free. India never ceases to amaze me as a country.

eta:

How a surge of Covid cases in India hit the UK's vaccine supply

Serum Institute of India, world’s biggest vaccine producer, asked by Delhi to keep more doses in country

www.theguardian.com

They will have no hesitation restricting supply for their own needs, with 1.2 billion people you can't really blame them.

 

[elbows]

Its not that hard, its a question of priorities of supply. There is no way anyone will convince me that vaccines from that India production facility should have been prioritised for the UK. That production facility is a major source of supply for things like COVAX. The UK is keeping domestically produced vaccine for itself, which is one thing, taking it from India at this stage is a disgrace.

Fergus Walsh expressed it in the form of surprise, I express it as disgust.

 

[elbows]

Plus I can jsut read the press release from last June to see what the India production was supposed to be about.

AstraZeneca takes next steps towards broad and equitable access to Oxford University’s potential COVID-19 vaccine

www.astrazeneca.com

AstraZeneca has taken the next steps in its commitment to broad and equitable global access to the University of Oxford’s potential COVID-19 vaccine, AZD1222, following landmark agreements with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Gavi the Vaccine Alliance, and the Serum Institute of India (SII).

The Company today reached a $750m agreement with CEPI and Gavi to support the manufacturing, procurement and distribution of 300 million doses of the potential vaccine, with delivery starting by the end of the year. In addition, AstraZeneca reached a licensing agreement with SII to supply one billion doses for low-and-middle-income countries, with a commitment to provide 400 million before the end of 2020.

Adar Poonawalla, Chief Executive Officer, SII, said: “Serum Institute of India is delighted to partner with AstraZeneca in bringing this vaccine to India as well as low-and-middle-income countries. Over the past 50 years SII has built significant capability in vaccine manufacturing and supply globally. We will work closely with AstraZeneca to ensure fair and equitable distribution of the vaccine in these countries.”

 

[elbows]

The Johnson press conference has begun.

 

[elbows]

Plenty of todays press conference questions from the press were hideous and grubby.

In part because in certain spheres of journalism and politics, 'vaccine nationalism' is a term reserved for other governments threatening or doing things which may affect UK supply. Whereas the disgusting UK first approach taken by this country is enshrined in a magic bubble, it doesnt count, and it is left to gobby people like me to moan about it.

 

[gentlegreen]

Trust this shower to make the one "success story" in the pandemic turn out to be more of the same ...
And the electorate will lap it up.

 

[Supine]

Don't forget some countries will play the long game. Give the UK some vaccines now and get the reward later. After the UK is vaccinated our factories will be churning out vaccines for other countries. Payback could be huge.

Obviously it's AZ doing this not our glorious government. But who knows how power influences these things.

 

[elbows]

Obviously it's AZ doing this not our glorious government.

Depends which bit you mean, I expect you are referring to production but many of the issues about who is getting the supply are government-related. Plus when it comes to the AZ vaccine, their chief kept going on about how the deal with Oxford means it was also a deal with the government.

There was some room in my brain to cope with the 'UK first approach' when it came to doses manufactured in the UK. I cannot muster the same feelings when it comes to production from India, given everything that had previously been said about what that capacity was for.

Certainly Indias 'vaccine diplomacy' is already in evidence. When it comes to UK vaccine diplomacy, the approach is 'fine words' and future commitments during this initial 'UK first' phase, whilst grabbing as many doses as possible for ourselves as quickly as possible. Then later once the government has satisfied its vaccination programme needs, we will move on to forms of vaccine diplomacy that actually involve giving the vaccine to others.

As a person under 50 with no established health conditions, it was quite a long time ago that I expressed my unease at the prospect of being vaccinated well before huge numbers of at risk people around the world. It is probably not surprising that discovering we were getting doses from India at this stage tiipped me far past the point of unease.

 

[Sunray]

Its not that hard, its a question of priorities of supply. There is no way anyone will convince me that vaccines from that India production facility should have been prioritised for the UK. That production facility is a major source of supply for things like COVAX. The UK is keeping domestically produced vaccine for itself, which is one thing, taking it from India at this stage is a disgrace.

Fergus Walsh expressed it in the form of surprise, I express it as disgust.

Sorry but your talking shit now. We've not got the SAS to raid their vaccine store. Nor is India some backward third world country that makes vaccines for poor countries.
They make medicines for everyone who wants to buy them, they are very good at it.

Quite a few people on these boards would testify to the enduring quality of their ketamine back in the day.

 

[MJ100]

You can't with one hand say 'we need everyone vaccinated ASAP' and then decry it when we buy from other nations to do so. If we don't get the supply we need to vaccinate people here, then more people here will die. No government of any stripe can actively say that to the public. 'Having killed a hundred thousand of you, we're going to let some more of you die so people somewhere else can live.' Wanting enough vaccines to inoculate your whole population is not vaccine nationalism, that's just fucking common sense, surely? You can't say it's vaccine nationalism when the UK does it, but that it would be totally fine for India or the EU to withhold supplies for their own people. Frankly if a UK government did not have a UK-first approach, then they shouldn't be the UK government. Their first duty is to their own citizens, it's as simple as that.

 

[elbows]

Just because I have different ideas to you about how vaccines should be equitably distributed at this stage, and what the priorities for global health should be, doesnt mean I'm taking shit.

 

[elbows]

Who's doing that then? Anyone here?

It is now quite clear that this does apply to some people here, yes.

 

[nagapie]

You can't with one hand say 'we need everyone vaccinated ASAP' and then decry it when we buy from other nations to do so. If we don't get the supply we need to vaccinate people here, then more people here will die. No government of any stripe can actively say that to the public. 'Having killed a hundred thousand of you, we're going to let some more of you die so people somewhere else can live.' Wanting enough vaccines to inoculate your whole population is not vaccine nationalism, that's just fucking common sense, surely? You can't say it's vaccine nationalism when the UK does it, but that it would be totally fine for India or the EU to withhold supplies for their own people. Frankly if a UK government did not have a UK-first approach, then they shouldn't be the UK government. Their first duty is to their own citizens, it's as simple as that.

The UK has bought much more than they need, leaving less for others. Remember the selfish panic buyers they loved to decry, that's our government.
They have actively pushed policies that allow companies to make profit before making vaccines more affordable for developing nations.
They have used vaccines as political leverage to try and detract from why we, one of the richest countries in the world, have one of the highest death rates instead of looking at global need.
They have as always ignored the science, Covid knows no borders and mutates.
They have used developing countries like South Africa for developing their vaccinations under the guise of giving them access and then totally fucked them over by not sharing.
None of this takes into account all the inequality that the UK perpetuates globally which results in extreme poverty across the globe.
You are a fuckwit.

 

[MJ100]

Just because I have different ideas to you about how vaccines should be equitably distributed at this stage, and what the priorities for global health should be, doesnt mean I'm taking shit.

Not sure anyone said you were talking shit, just that it's hypocritical to say it's fine for India to want to vaccinate its own population before it sells abroad, but it's strangely not ok for the UK to want the same thing. The Indian government presumably approved the sale. They could have chosen to hoard those vaccines for their own population, but they didn't, so it's hardly obscene to expect them to fulfill the contractual obligations they have signed up to, is it?

 

[MJ100]

The UK has bought much more than they need, leaving less for others. Remember the selfish panic buyers they loved to decry, that's our government.
They have actively pushed policies that allow companies to make profit before making vaccines more affordable for developing nations.
They have used vaccines as political leverage to try and detract from why we, one of the richest countries in the world, have one of the highest death rates instead of looking at global need.
They have as always ignored the science, Covid knows no borders and mutates.
They have used developing countries like South Africa for developing their vaccinations under the guise of giving them access and then totally fucked them over by not sharing.
None of this takes into account all the inequality that the UK perpetuates globally which results in extreme poverty across the globe.
You are a fuckwit.

We haven't bought more than we need, we've ORDERED more than we need. The majority of that hasn't even been manufactured yet, plus some of our purchases will be distributed to Commonwealth nations.

Oxford-AZ are distributing the vaccine at cost, so they're hardly making a profit before making it more affordable for developing nations.

We are the third largest donator to COVAX, I believe, after the USA and Germany.

The EU has used vaccines as political leverage too. So has the USA. So have China and Russia. Going to have a go at them too, or is it only bad when the UK does it?

Most of the AZ vaccine, which is what I assume you're referring to, isn't even made in the UK anyway, so it has nothing to do with the UK 'not sharing.'

This has nothing whatsoever to do with 'all the inequality that the UK perpetuates,' whatever that is. You just hate the Tories, and that's fine, but just say so. Don't try to preach from some high horse about how terrible the whole country apparently is. You're a fucking idiot if you think the UK is in any way special or different in any of what you just spouted.

 

[Badgers]

 

[cupid_stunt]

The UK has bought much more than they need, leaving less for others.

That is simply not true.

It is true we ordered more doses than we need, like many other countries, because we needed to back several different vaccines, as we didn't know which would work. It was to back rapid development, to speed up trails, to increase production availability, and to allow some companies to start manufacturing even before approval.

If rich countries had not invested on the scale they did, we could still be months away from having any vaccines, or at the very least, there would be a fraction of the number of doses available now compared to what actually is available or coming soon.

And, it's not less for others, any we don't require will be made available to poorer countries, there's no point keeping any we don't need.

Plus the Oxford/AZ vaccine is being provided at cost to the world, at something like £3 a pop, compared to Pfizer at £15, and Moderna at £28.

 

[tommers]

Where does the "3rd wave imminent" come from? Is he thinking that having that group not vaccinated fucks up the plan? We're at about 40% of the population or something now aren't we?

Ensuring that the most vulnerable are properly immunised is the right thing to do isn't it? I'm (just) under 50 and I would rather be vaccinated than not but if I have to wait then OK, no worries.

 

[cupid_stunt]

We're at about 40% of the population or something now aren't we?

Almost 50% now, there's about 54m over 18s in the UK, first doses have hit more than 25.7m.

 

[Teaboy]

Where does the "3rd wave imminent" come from? Is he thinking that having that group not vaccinated fucks up the plan? We're at about 40% of the population or something now aren't we?

Ensuring that the most vulnerable are properly immunised is the right thing to do isn't it? I'm (just) under 50 and I would rather be vaccinated than not but if I have to wait then OK, no worries.

I guess he is suggesting that a return to normal life when infection rates are still high and large numbers of the population are still unvaccinated will lead to a third wave of infections. There are some who hope that won't matter as long as death rates remain low enough (take your pick on what that actually means). Others think that is nothing more than wishful thinking and letting a deadly virus rip through the population is as foolish now as it was this time a year ago.

 

[maomao]

Where does the "3rd wave imminent" come from? Is he thinking that having that group not vaccinated fucks up the plan? We're at about 40% of the population or something now aren't we?

Ensuring that the most vulnerable are properly immunised is the right thing to do isn't it? I'm (just) under 50 and I would rather be vaccinated than not but if I have to wait then OK, no worries.

Same here. I'd rather my mum, who has a significant risk of death, got her second dose than I got my first one.

 

[Sunray]

The covid-19 vaccine manufacturing is being exported to the 4 corners of the world. Mexico and Argentina are doing south and central America. I see Spain and Italy are setting up for the J&J vaccine etc.
When it all comes on stream, which can take a bit of time, the vaccine thing will become a thing of the past.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The covid-19 vaccine manufacturing is being exported to the 4 corners of the world. Mexico and Argentina are doing south and central America. I see Spain and Italy are setting up for the J&J vaccine etc.
When it all comes on stream, which can take a bit of time, the vaccine thing will become a thing of the past.

The AZ one is going to be manufactured in at least India, Brazil, Argentina and Thailand. South Africa will be coming online with the Johnson & Johnson one. I am sure there must be several other countries involved, they are just the ones I can remember.

 

[Badgers]

Where does the "3rd wave imminent" come from? Is he thinking that having that group not vaccinated fucks up the plan? We're at about 40% of the population or something now aren't we?

It is a bit scaremongering but it does come with some data from the Robert Koch institute. Doubt (hope) we will see a third wave as bad as January here in the UK but Europe is in a really bad state with more national lock downs kicking in.

The Europe situation is different due to vaccine pace and also the UK variant I read earlier we have 8 or 10 (will find the Gov.uk link) and more news about the recent variant being a lot more transmissible via kids.

The vaccination combined with lockdown has got this almost under control. Still think reopening schools was too soon.. My sister is a teacher at one school and she has two girls at two further schools. All three schools have now had news cases and years sent home to quarantine.

 

[miss direct]

8 or 10 variants?